2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

It's not totally out of the question that Caleb could pull an Eli to engineer coming to DC. If Magic gets in his ear about turning around the franchise and Williams tells Chicago he doesn't want to go there... that could catalyze a trade-up from 3 to 1. Chicago still has the option of Maye or Daniels if they want to move on from Fields and meanwhile they'd get some extra draft picks, too.

 

I'm not saying it will happen, but who knows. The Harris ownership group is going to want to make a splash. Imagine Magic Johnson telling Caleb about the team building a new stadium at RFK, a mere 3 miles from Gonzaga where he went to HS. The family connections. Etc etc. Caleb clearly wants to exercise some agency over his deal and where he goes - that could work out in our favor.

Anything is possible. But that scenario to go from 3 to 1 will likely cost us a 2nd and a 1st next year. There would be no discount in that scenario. 
 

Only way this could work in our favor is if the Bears are equally as high or close to as high on Maye, we pick #2 and take Caleb if he makes it clear he doesn’t want to play in Chicago and they opt for Maye. Maybe we luck out and sit at #3, but it’s hard for me to see the Cards staying at 2 with Williams there. They’d either take Williams or trade back with NE for a ransom of picks. Then we sit at #3 in the same position we would be in having to trade quite a bit to Chicago for #1. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, CapsSkins said:

It's not totally out of the question that Caleb could pull an Eli to engineer coming to DC. If Magic gets in his ear about turning around the franchise and Williams tells Chicago he doesn't want to go there... that could catalyze a trade-up from 3 to 1. Chicago still has the option of Maye or Daniels if they want to move on from Fields and meanwhile they'd get some extra draft picks, too.

 

I'm not saying it will happen, but who knows. The Harris ownership group is going to want to make a splash. Imagine Magic Johnson telling Caleb about the team building a new stadium at RFK, a mere 3 miles from Gonzaga where he went to HS. The family connections. Etc etc. Caleb clearly wants to exercise some agency over his deal and where he goes - that could work out in our favor.

I think a #3 to #1 is absolutely in the cards if we don't **** it up and win a game.  We also have 2 seconds this year.  

 

The key for the Bears will be if they want to ride it out with Fields, they can stay in the "top tier" by moving to 3, and still get Harrison Jr. or one of the tackles (I think Harrison Jr.) to pair with Fields and DJ Moore and that would be pretty exciting up there in the Windy City.  If they could do that and grab an additional first and second? That would be great.

 

I'm sure some dopy team is going to offer them additional picks, probably 3 firsts and a second like we offered for Griffin, but the first is probably going to be outside of the top 5.  They miss on Harrison and both tackles at that point.  

 

I could see a world where getting Harrison + a first and a second would be WAY better than some guy later in the round + 2 firsts.  

 

So that's why I think it could happen.

 

The reason it might not is the analytics are generally not in favor of trading up for a QB because the bust rate of QBs who are taken after a trade up in the last 10 years is 100%. So, there's that.  

 

But if you leave aside history, it makes all the sense in the world. 

Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Anything is possible. But that scenario to go from 3 to 1 will likely cost us a 2nd and a 1st next year. There would be no discount in that scenario. 

I think that IS a discount if you're moving to the #1 pick to grab a QB.  If you're ONLY giving up an additional first and a second to do it, that's not that bad.  Also, we have an extra second. 

 

Again, I'm lower on the "build through the draft" philosophy than others.  I see draft picks as an asset to use to build the best roster possible.  And I have no problem trading a future 1st and current second to get the best QB prospect in the draft.

 

BUT you have to make damn sure you protect him at the same time.  So that other second, third, FA and other assets need to be used to shore up the OL.  

 

Forget the defense.  Who cares.  Fix the offense first, then worry about the defense.  

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Get to the #2 pick and everything is on the board, including a pick swap with Chicago if Caleb forces their hand, or simply them drafting Maye. Going from 1-3 for them could take them out of Marvin Harrison if he’s truly the backup plan, and not Daniels or Maye. 
 

If the order is Chicago, Arizona, Washington, New England, and Chicago and Arizona both want MHJ, there would absolutely be a bidding war and if both Chicago and Arizona want MHJ that complicates all trade downs. 

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I think a #3 to #1 is absolutely in the cards if we don't **** it up and win a game.  We also have 2 seconds this year.  

 

The key for the Bears will be if they want to ride it out with Fields, they can stay in the "top tier" by moving to 3, and still get Harrison Jr. or one of the tackles (I think Harrison Jr.) to pair with Fields and DJ Moore and that would be pretty exciting up there in the Windy City.  If they could do that and grab an additional first and second? That would be great.

 

I'm sure some dopy team is going to offer them additional picks, probably 3 firsts and a second like we offered for Griffin, but the first is probably going to be outside of the top 5.  They miss on Harrison and both tackles at that point.  

 

I could see a world where getting Harrison + a first and a second would be WAY better than some guy later in the round + 2 firsts.  

 

So that's why I think it could happen.

 

The reason it might not is the analytics are generally not in favor of trading up for a QB because the bust rate of QBs who are taken after a trade up in the last 10 years is 100%. So, there's that.  

 

But if you leave aside history, it makes all the sense in the world. 

 

 

For sure it could happen even without Caleb getting involved. But that puts Chicago GM Ryan Poles in a tough position. Passing up on Caleb for Fields or one of the other prospects would be politically difficult considering all the hype.

 

That's why Caleb / Caleb's agent putting their thumb on the scale behind the scenes makes it much more plausible. Because then Poles can tell ownership that Caleb doesn't want to go there and he's making the best of a difficult situation. In that scenario, they're still picking top 3 and can take one of the top QBs or go MH JR and they get their 2nd rounder back plus another pick.

 

It would be a bit of a diva move but Caleb already has some of those diva vibes. I don't love it but hey, if he's the real deal on the field, none of us will give a ****. RG3's issue wasn't the vanity socks and cheesy slogans, it was the fact he couldn't learn the position and stay healthy. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Broncos benching Wilson and clearly moving on in 2024 could be a wildcard as a landing spot for Fields. Denver gives Chicago their 1st for Fields. Chicago goes into the draft with #1, #8 and #14 (as things stand today). Could Chicago offer Arizona 8+14 for 2 ahead of the draft? Per the Rich Hill chart this is a clean trade … 730 in value for ARZ and 717 for Chicago.
 

If Caleb forces Chicago to go elsewhere (obv totally speculative) and they went into the draft with #1 and #2 and we sat at #3 … they’d have full control of the draft. Could deal us #1 at that point, get back their 2nd, and draft Maye/Daniels and Harrison Jr. at 2+3 

Edited December 27, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Broncos benching Wilson and clearly moving on in 2024 could be a wildcard as a landing spot for Fields.

I don't know how they get rid of Wilson.  He carries an $85m dead cap number next year.  $49.5M in 2025.

 

I'm sure there are ways, but he also had a $50m signing bonus, and one thing I KNOW is the entire signing bonus has to hit the signing team's cap.  It was spread over 5 years, just that alone is $30m.  So if there was even a way to trad him and somebody else take on some of the contract, I'm not sure how the Broncos get out of that contract for less than a $50m cap hit.  And that's 25% of the cap.  I'm not sure it's possible.

 

It will be interesting to see if they are able to move him. They absolutely can't release him. 

 

But who in the name of God is going to trade for him and then pay him the remainder of his current contract after the way he's been playing?

 

I think they're just stuck for 2 more years.  Even after 2025, the cap hit is $31m to get rid of him.  

 

Honestly, that might overtake the Albert Hayneseworth contract as the worst in the history of the NFL.  

[BurgundyBooger]

Personally don't want Caleb. He's from here, which means too many distractions, IMO. Family, "family" (3rd cousin twice removed), friends, old high school chums, parasites who "knew" him back in the day. Get the QB who doesn't know anyone here and doesn't want to know anyone here aside from the players.

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

The feeling is he was benched to avoid the injury guarantee should he get hurt, which I think guarantees 2025. The thinking is they can cut him and move on this off-season. Likely a post June 1st to lessen the impacts. In theory Field extension would kick in once the Wilson contract is off the books. Total speculation on my part. If they draft a QB they’ve got ship fields somewhere. The other logical spot is Minnesota and I’m not sure they’d trade in division. Maybe they can get him to Atlanta which might be the best fit. But Atlanta is going to have a new coach so who knows what they’ll be thinking. And #10 feels a bit rich for Fields, so it would likely be a 2nd and future pick rather than the falcons 1st. 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, BurgundyBooger said:

Personally don't want Caleb. He's from here, which means too many distractions, IMO. Family, "family" (3rd cousin twice removed), friends, old high school chums, parasites who "knew" him back in the day. Get the QB who doesn't know anyone here and doesn't want to know anyone here aside from the players.

 

 

If you have a chance to get Williams you do it imo. He is so far ahead of any QB we have ever had in DC. Yeah he is a bit of a diva. But I want a confident ****y guy as a QB. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Caleb is probably the best prospect since Burrow. This sort of thing happens when a player is considered the top dog for a year +. If you told us we’d be drafting Williams going into this season I think we’d all be doing backflips. I don’t think any of us thought we’d be close to in a position to draft him. 
 

Now we still may not be. But I think we’d all also be doing backflips if you told us we’d be drafting Maye. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Rufus T Firefly]

5 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

The feeling is he was benched to avoid the injury guarantee should he get hurt, which I think guarantees 2025. The thinking is they can cut him and move on this off-season. Likely a post June 1st to lessen the impacts. In theory Field extension would kick in once the Wilson contract is off the books. Total speculation on my part. If they draft a QB they’ve got ship fields somewhere. The other logical spot is Minnesota and I’m not sure they’d trade in division. Maybe they can get him to Atlanta which might be the best fit. But Atlanta is going to have a new coach so who knows what they’ll be thinking. And #10 feels a bit rich for Fields, so it would likely be a 2nd and future pick rather than the falcons 1st. 

His 2025 salary becomes guaranteed not he 5th day of the league year. I don't know if you can designate someone a June 1 cut and not have that kick in. 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

We’re going to pick RG4 and he is going to be dead.

[philibusters]

1 hour ago, 757SeanTaylor21 said:

There's equal blame and multiple reasonings for rg3 failing. But to take rg3 out of my post as the main substance when I said lesser extent rookie rg3. We had kirk as our qb that we failed to secure

 

RGIII failed for a lot of reasons, but two big factors were the injuries and his request that a lot of running plays be taken out of the playbook (which was done at the suggestion of Dan Synder).  Kyle Shannahan is pretty ingenious and he had figured out how to open pretty big passing lane using the threat of RGIII's running ability.     When that running threat disappeared the passing lanes got smaller.    Starting in 2013 he also lost his confidence.   He became afraid to throw the ball into tight windows and didn't trust what he was seeing near as much as in 2012 when his confidence was sky high.

[kingdaddy]

20 minutes ago, BurgundyBooger said:

Personally don't want Caleb. He's from here, which means too many distractions, IMO. Family, "family" (3rd cousin twice removed), friends, old high school chums, parasites who "knew" him back in the day. Get the QB who doesn't know anyone here and doesn't want to know anyone here aside from the players.

 

 

I think there could be something to this: added distractions, pressure for the local kid to save the franchise. But....it could be a great story if he pulls it off.

[Blanka]

8 hours ago, skinsfan66 said:

USC went 7and 5 with the (projected) Mahomes why?   

USC has been playing football for over 100 years. 2023 was the worst defense in school history. Were ranked 120th in the nation. Plus the Offensive line regressed from the previous year. And he still put up 30 tds to 5 interceptions.
 

Put an average college QB at USC this year and they’d be lucky to win 4 games. The Arizona win would be the best example of the carry job that Caleb did this season. 

[srtman04]

27 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Caleb is probably the best prospect since Burrow. This sort of thing happens when a player is considered the top dog for a year +. If you told us we’d be drafting Williams going into this season I think we’d all be doing backflips. I don’t think any of us thought we’d be close to in a position to draft him. 
 

Now we still may not be. But I think we’d all also be doing backflips if you told us we’d be drafting Maye. 

 

I think I'll do backflips for Jayden Daniels now as well.    If he can stay healthy in the NFL, that kid will be special.  

[DazedSkinsfan]

28 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

If you have a chance to get Williams you do it imo. He is so far ahead of any QB we have ever had in DC. Yeah he is a bit of a diva. But I want a confident ****y guy as a QB. 

Absolutely!!!! Yeah he's definitely a diva for sure and a bit quirky,  but there's no denying his abilities and obvious potential.  I know there's not a snowballs chance in hell of him falling to us, but if he did then I would be over the moon.  Of course he could bust, but so could Maye and Daniels.

[Darrell Green Fan]

I am pretty convinced the Bears try to end their 40 year search for a franchise QB and select Williams, I don't believe we should be discussing a player the Commanders won't be able to obtain.  I'm also convinced Arizona can not afford to pass on a talent like Harrison and will pull the trigger.  Pats and Commanders take Maye and Daniels, which is which TBD. 

[SoCalSkins]

2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I don't know how they get rid of Wilson.  He carries an $85m dead cap number next year.  $49.5M in 2025.

 

I'm sure there are ways, but he also had a $50m signing bonus, and one thing I KNOW is the entire signing bonus has to hit the signing team's cap.  It was spread over 5 years, just that alone is $30m.  So if there was even a way to trad him and somebody else take on some of the contract, I'm not sure how the Broncos get out of that contract for less than a $50m cap hit.  And that's 25% of the cap.  I'm not sure it's possible.

 

It will be interesting to see if they are able to move him. They absolutely can't release him. 

 

But who in the name of God is going to trade for him and then pay him the remainder of his current contract after the way he's been playing?

 

I think they're just stuck for 2 more years.  Even after 2025, the cap hit is $31m to get rid of him.  

 

Honestly, that might overtake the Albert Hayneseworth contract as the worst in the history of the NFL.  

It’s $85 million in 2024 or $35 in 24 & $50 in 25 if post June 1 designation. He hasn’t played a snap on the deal yet. It was an extension. Pure stupidity on Denver’s part. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

13 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

It’s $85 million in 2024 or $35 in 24 & $50 in 25 if post June 1 designation. He hasn’t played a snap on the deal yet. It was an extension. Pure stupidity on Denver’s part. 

So his 25 salary becomes guaranteed a few days into the league year. I don't know if they can designate him as a June 1 cut and not have that guarantee kick in. 

 

[Conn]

Russ expected to be released on March 1st. Broncos threatened him with benching if he didn’t allow them to change the guarantees in his contract and he rightfully told them to shove it. Weird situation with an awful contract. Very Dan Snyder-feeling situation. God it feels good to be free 

[MartinC]

4 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

Honestly, that might overtake the Albert Hayneseworth contract as the worst in the history of the NFL.  

I think the Browns and the deal for Watson just about top it.

[CTskin]

Williams had a list of four or five teams that he’d play for and we were not on there. Has something changed?

 

I don’t love the diva aspect and I don’t love the 7-5 record… but brissett is showing me that Howell may not be the gem that flashed earlier this year.

[SoCalSkins]

9 minutes ago, CTskin said:

Williams had a list of four or five teams that he’d play for and we were not on there. Has something changed?

 

I don’t love the diva aspect and I don’t love the 7-5 record… but brissett is showing me that Howell may not be the gem that flashed earlier this year.

He sent letters to 4 or 5 teams asking for equity. 😂 

 

Dude watched Air on Amazon and thought he’s Jordan with Nike. 

[Warhead36]

5 hours ago, BurgundyBooger said:

Personally don't want Caleb. He's from here, which means too many distractions, IMO. Family, "family" (3rd cousin twice removed), friends, old high school chums, parasites who "knew" him back in the day. Get the QB who doesn't know anyone here and doesn't want to know anyone here aside from the players.

 

 

Agreed. Im sick of the hometown savior angle.