2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Skinsinparadise]

37 minutes ago, @DCGoldPants said:

I feel the opposite. Every year a number of QBs have the draft values artificially inflated by the hype that even teams can get swept up in too. Are these 3 QBs really all top 5 talents? One of them a Zach Wilson? Two of them?

 

I'd rather end up with Fashanu or Alt and have a day 1 starter. 

 

 

IMO you can't play scared in a draft.   To each their own but I don't give a crap that Zach Wilson sucks.  Just like if I wanted a LT, I wouldn't give a crap that Evan Neal, Luke Joeckel, Greg Robinson among others were or looking to be busts.

 

This goes double for a team that I can recall ever been part of a party in the draft where they are likely in position to pick a QB without trading up -- that is, in a ballyhooed draft.    Some say 1994 but that wasn't a hyped draft for QBs.    Some say 2020 was the other one.  But Herbert and Tua weren't hyped as prospects like Maye and Daniels are now.  Still it was a squandered opportunity in 2020 because this team hardly ever picks that high.  

 

So for a new regime to look at coming in and doing exactly what Ron did in year 1 which arguably was the key component that derailed the whole regime with the power of hindsight -- that is, to be in a rare situation to take a QB high and pass on it for "safer" pastures and in turn run a similar script that this team has had for the last 30 years where they try to win without the QB -- would be a wild beginning for the new GM.   No one who covers this team expects round 2 of this tactic after Ron's regime.  Neither do I.  But you never know.  Will see.

 

Hearing Ron explain once on Sheehan that he felt Chase was the better (safer) pick than Tua or Herbert, really brings home why this team could never find a QB.

 

But for me if the new GM has a top 3 pick and goes with a radical move of skipping QB and that QB kills it and we are stuck in QB purgatory -- that to me is unforgiveable and I'd want that GM canned.  So if the new GM goes with a funky move like going with a LT over a QB, he better be right.  I'd think he knows this already and IMO would go with the safer move for him for his job security and that would be QB.

 

If I wanted them to take a tackle, I'd root for a win to get them picking lower outside of the top 3 QB range and even then McCarthy might be in play if he comes out.  

 

I am not one of the people down here on Fashanu or Alt.  But still I would be beyond annoyed if they took either top 3.  If they are picking 5 or 6 its good with me.  If they are picking 4 its Marvin Harrison Jr. by a mile for me -- unless I fall for McCarthy.  I want to see how McCarthy does against Alabama.

 

But for me the lets go get our Chris Samuels or Trent.  We might not have our QB but who cares would be a "meh" start of this new regime for me.   But I can live with Marvin Harrison. That dude is insanely good IMO.

 

You can build the O line with all the other draft capital which is plenty. 

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

I posted some of this on the QB thread but to expand on the point here.

 

I was listening to Kiper's podcast this morning.  He's hyped about all three prospects.   I take Kiper more seriously in recent years than the past because I've learned some of his takes are driven by FO conversations.

 

While he likes Maye, he feels that Daniels is a real threat to Caleb at the #1 spot.  That's the first I've seen someone take it that far with Daniels.  He had Yates (ESPN reporter) mentioned something that hit me too (feels obvious) that Lamar killing it this season amplifies the value of Daniels even more.

 

If Kiper has a beat on other teams takes on this draft then it confirms what some of us think here (me included) that the QBs go 1, 2, 3.

 

I then listened to Keim's podcast where he interviewed a SF beat guy who really sold why Adams Peters would be a great GM -- he came off without a strong opinion about Slowik as a HC prospect, he's a low key and mile mannered dude but smart.  He liked him but he didn't come off like he was pounding the table.  But he was very high and what he's seen from Peters though said Kyle helps the process because he watched a lot of tape and is very specific explaining to the FO as to what he's looking for and Peters is good at getting that.

[@DCGoldPants]

15 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

IMO you can't play scared in a draft.

 

I don't think it's being scared. It's that every year QBs are pushed to the top because of the value of the position, not because they are actually being scouted as that guy. I think it's being pragmatic. I want the plug and play OL before putting a rookie QB out there.

[Riggo#44]

13 hours ago, Conn said:

Russ expected to be released on March 1st. Broncos threatened him with benching if he didn’t allow them to change the guarantees in his contract and he rightfully told them to shove it. Weird situation with an awful contract. Very Dan Snyder-feeling situation. God it feels good to be free 

[El Mexican]

Well, you guys convinced me.

 

As much of a LT fan I am, I can't see a new GM of a new regime drafting a lineman and rolling the dice yet again with a journeyman QB and an inconsistent Howell. 

 

There's too much on the line. The new FO needs to make its point heard.

 

That will only be made clear with a deep house clean and new QB.

[DWinzit]

17 minutes ago, El Mexican said:

Well, you guys convinced me.

 

As much of a LT fan I am, I can't see a new GM of a new regime drafting a lineman and rolling the dice yet again with a journeyman QB and an inconsistent Howell. 

 

There's too much on the line. The new FO needs to make its point heard.

 

That will only be made clear with a deep house clean and new QB.

Yeah once Howell's decline began and continued it began to be more evident that one of the top 3 QB's would be the narrative. The fact that we now have a great shot at one of them possibly without trading for one, it became the clear route. 

[heyholetsgogrant]

We should be drafting a QB every year, I don't give a **** what anyone says. The fact that every team seems to find one eventually shows how dysfunctional this org has been for 30+ years. The time is now, quit making excuses. Philly has been to the Super Bowl Twice with 2 different QB's in the last 5 years, get it the **** done. 

Edited December 28, 2023 by heyholetsgogrant

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, @DCGoldPants said:

 

I don't think it's being scared. It's that every year QBs are pushed to the top because of the value of the position, not because they are actually being scouted as that guy. I think it's being pragmatic. I want the plug and play OL before putting a rookie QB out there.

 

Every year players bust in the top 10 at all spots.  Granted more on QB.  But the odds of hitting on a QB after the first round is extremely low.

 

We had 20 years between 2000 and 2020 where we only got to the top 3 twice.  So once every 20 years in that span. That's it.  This isn't a familiar draft space for us.

 

We traded up the farm for RG3 to get to #2 once.  And that trade negated one another time they were picking 2nd which ironically the Rams used for a LT who was a total bust.

 

This isn't an opportunity we get often. This isn't a draft with meh QB prospects that people are pushing up -- its considered a stacked draft for that spot.  It doesn't guarantee anything.  But this isn't a draft where the QB prospects aren't highly touted but are just pushed up because heck teams need a QB so what the hell take one early.

 

As to it being pragmatic, I agree if we are most interested in a high floor versus high ceiling.   Better shot at 8-8 and avoiding a season collapse if they are wrong if we avoid QB.  It's been sort of the Ron Rivera way.  But that's part of the reason why I'd be shocked if they did it. 

 

I'd strongly guess that the new GM would be mostly ridiculed if he was in the top 3 and took a LT -- especially considering this team's futility at QB for decades.  So I am not worried that the GM will skip QB. 

 

But if I really wanted a left tackle, I'd hope that this team beats Dallas.  If they are picking 5 or later, the GM can take a LT without ridicule and he wouldn't be on the spot for passing on a QB.  So If I were on the train of wanting a LT, no way I'd want to pick top 3 because the odds IMO are very low they's take one that high.  So I wouldn't sweat the idea of them winning a game.  if they win a game they should still easily get one of thhe top 2 tackes.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

We had 20 years between 2000 and 2020 where we only got to the top 3 twice.  So once every 20 years…

My math’s a little shaky but that doesn’t sound right.

[Xameil]

2 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

My math’s a little shaky but that doesn’t sound right.

Forget it, hes rolling

Edited December 28, 2023 by Xameil

[DWinzit]

Just now, Xameil said:

Forget it, hes rolling

Did we quite when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor...

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

My math’s a little shaky but that doesn’t sound right.

 

I'll help you, give me the other drafts they landed a top 3 in that 20 years span between 2000 and 2020.  RG3 (2012) as I said was an exception but they had to trade up.  I am talking landing there without trading up.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Commanders_draft_history

Edited December 28, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

Am I correct that there’s a good chance we will be picking 4th after tonight?

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Am I correct that there’s a good chance we will be picking 4th after tonight?

 

Jets-Browns?

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

It's like Grant reads this thread. 

 

The fact that someone here didn't even believe that fact in my post and didn't bother to check but that was confident i was wrong helps make the point for me.  And no offense to that post.  I get it.  It feels like we are in the position to pick like this frequently.  So I understand the feeling.  But that's not how its gone down.

 

Yeah we've sucked.  Yeah it might feel like we are picking this high often.  But its not true.  This is a rare thing.  The best run where we've had it happen twice is the beginning of Ron's regime to the end --  so 4 years after previously it was 20.   Assuming we pick top 3.   We cannot make that same mistake again IMO. 

 

And the parallels to 2000 are wildly similar.  New regime with a sell of a new desperately needed beginning.  We got 3 Qbs with early first round hype.  Some are pausing in part because maybe our young QB might be the guy even though more evidence is ponted otherwise. 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[BrentMeisterGeneral]

For me it’s pretty simple, of all the many many needs we have as long as QB is one of them, then that’s the focus and priority. In fact I’d go one more, if Caleb is the best and there’s a chance we can get to 1 and get him, pull the trigger. Been a minute since we got aggressive on something.

 

Taking a QB in the 1st doesn’t necessarily mean the O Line has to be terrible next year, in fact any incoming regime would do well to not improve it on this year.

Edited December 28, 2023 by BrentMeisterGeneral

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[Chump Bailey]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I was listening to Kiper's podcast this morning.  He's hyped about all three prospects.   I take Kiper more seriously in recent years than the past because I've learned some of his takes are driven by FO conversations. While he likes Maye, he feels that Daniels is a real threat to Caleb at the #1 spot. 

 

Heard the same. This draft is going to be incredible to behold for us I think. Grab your popcorn folks. The talk of trading up for Williams is yet another conundrum to ponder. I'm about to the point of just running the card up for Jayden Daniels if he's there and we stay at #3. While I do like Nix, JJ (he's only 20 years old also) and a bit less enthusiastic on Maye but Daniels seems to make the most sense in my head.

[SoCalSkins]

3 hours ago, @DCGoldPants said:

 

I don't think it's being scared. It's that every year QBs are pushed to the top because of the value of the position, not because they are actually being scouted as that guy. I think it's being pragmatic. I want the plug and play OL before putting a rookie QB out there.

Let’s skip the position we have been unable to fill since the early 80s and instead fill the position that’s according to you a plug and play position which we have filled over over again without issue. A QB bust has more value than a solid o line because it shows you shot your shot. We need to keep shooting until we hit. Modern NFL requires a franchise qb and if you hit on one on a rookie deal it’s franchise altering instantly.  A great left tackle with a mediocre qb is not winning you jack long term. 

[Skinsinparadise]

14 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

Heard the same. This draft is going to be incredible to behold for us I think. Grab your popcorn folks. 

 

Fingers crossed we can hold onto the 3rd pick in the draft.  If we do it should be especially fun this off season for so many reasons.

[DWinzit]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Fingers crossed we can hold onto the 3rd pick in the draft.  If we do it should be especially fun this off season for so many reasons.

For certain!

 

And put me down for not being interested in trading up to 1 for Williams.

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

18 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

Heard the same. This draft is going to be incredible to behold for us I think. Grab your popcorn folks. The talk of trading up for Williams is yet another conundrum to ponder. I'm about to the point of just running the card up for Jayden Daniels if he's there and we stay at #3. While I do like Nix, JJ (he's only 20 years old also) and a bit less enthusiastic on Maye but Daniels seems to make the most sense in my head.

 

If JJ McCarthy enters the draft that could throw a big curveball. There's a lot of folks really high on his upside, but he is young. He could be someone we draft if we traded back in the 1st round. 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

If JJ McCarthy enters the draft that could throw a big curveball. There's a lot of folks really high on his upside, but he is young. He could be someone we draft if we traded back in the 1st round. 

 

Was just reading Matt Miller's take on this.

 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39178495/2024-nfl-draft-questions-college-football-bowl-games-top-prospects

Which first-round QB candidate -- J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. -- is in position to make the biggest statement Monday?

Reid: McCarthy, and I don't think it's close. Scouts were excited to see the Michigan signal-caller against Penn State and Ohio State at the end of the season after a lackluster schedule, but those matchups didn't really answer any questions. McCarthy threw 28 combined passes in those games as the Wolverines stuck to their run-heavy approach. He does what it takes to win, but he hasn't really shown what he's capable of as a passer. But now against Alabama? Michigan will likely have to showcase more of the passing game and give McCarthy more reps against an elite opponent.

There are mixed opinions on McCarthy's stock -- some scouts see him as a top-10 pick, while others believe he fits better late in Round 1 or early in Round 2. I personally grade him with that second group and have him at QB No. 5. But there's a lot riding on his College Football Playoff performance.

 

How do you stack those three QBs against one another right now?

Miller: McCarthy, Nix, Penix. This is a tough one because of the relative inexperience of McCarthy (26 starts) compared to Oregon's Nix (60) and Washington's Penix (43), but McCarthy has not had the early-career struggles of the other two. McCarthy has questions to his game, no doubt, but we should start to get answers throughout the CFP and the pre-draft process if he declares. All three are very closely ranked with top-50 grades, but McCarthy's efficiency and full-field throwing ability give him the current edge. He is No. 19 on my board, while Nix is No. 41 and Penix is No. 53.

6 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

For certain!

 

And put me down for not being interested in trading up to 1 for Williams.

 

 

 

In theory I don't want to trade up.  But if its for a QB, I'll ride with whatever the GM wants to do.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Chump Bailey]

Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

If JJ McCarthy enters the draft that could throw a big curveball. There's a lot of folks really high on his upside, but he is young. He could be someone we draft if we traded back in the 1st round. 

 

Agree. I've liked JJ's game for a while and he has wheels too. But, this position, as you know full well, is a byatch to get right  My gut says JJ is a winner. I would in all likelihood stay and take Daniels but a trade down that could possibly enable us to walk away with JJ, Latham and AD Mitchell Texas WR in the 1st is also very appealing.