The All Things PLAYOFFS 2022 Thread

[NFC Beast1987]

6 hours ago, Ball Security said:

Yes, it’s that dominating 1-2-1 record.  Gets em every time.

Hey that 1 win was a damn fine win though lol

[RansomthePasserby]

7 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Giants are bad. They had some really lucky wins early on but are hitting major regression. They're improved over last year for sure, Daboll is a legit coach, but their roster is putrid outside of Barkley and a couple DL. If we were healthy on the OL and our TEs didn't poop the bed we win last week by double digits. 

I think we win by double digits if St Juste was in the lineup instead of a rookie CB who was totally in over his head. Even with an unhealthy OL and TEs pooping the bed. 

[88Comrade2000]

9 hours ago, Bacon said:

True, the entire NFL is mired in mediocre football right now. There are maybe four good teams in the NFC (Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers) and six in the AFC (Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, Ravens, Titans). Maybe three or four truly great teams in the whole league.

 

Decent play the rest of the way will probably get us in.

Afc there’s really only 3 teams. KC, Buffalo and Cincy. Miami is fading a little. Baltimore will be a quick out in the playoffs. Same with the 7-6 Titans. Their coach may join the Gm.

 

nfc it’s really just Philly and maybe San Fran. Neither Dallas or Minny goes beyond winning a game.

[goskins10]

I posted this in thj game day thread but probably better here. Updated to refelct Seattle's loss. 

 

 

Ok, becasue I had to - Washington PO picture: with 2 spots up fro grabs from really 4 teams: 

 

Seatle - 7-6  Games remaining - 

49ers (Home) - Cheifs (Away) - Jets (Home) - Ram (Home)  - Could easily go 1-3. Get to 9-8 put them in play but could also easily go 2-2. They have some tough games left. Not an easy road. If we win 2 we are 9-7-1. Hard for them to catch us. 

 

Commanders - 7-5-1 - Games Remaining - 

Giants (Home) - 49ers (Away) - Browns (Home) - Dallas (home) - Hard to call hjonestly. I like us against the Giants and Browns. 49ers are very likely a loss. Dallas could depend on what they have to play for. I will call it 2-2 - we hold the tie breakers against the Giants at that point (division record) 

 

Giants - 7-5-1 - Games remaining - 

Commanders (Away) - Vikings (Away) - Colts (home) - Eagles (Away) - I will call ours a loss. Vikings likely a loss. Colts who knows. Eagles depends on what they are playing for. Whoever wins next week has contrrol over thier playoffs. If they win, they have the head to head tie breaker. If us, we own the division record since head to head would be a split. 

 

Detroit - 6-7 - Games Remianing - 

Jets (away) - Panthers (away) - Bears (Home) - Packers (away) - Could easily go 3-1 and maybe 4-0 although 2 div games on the road no matter how bad those teasm are could be trouble. The Lions are playing good ball but are inconsistent. If thy keep playing the way they are they cold be a hard out. 

 

I liike us and the Lions as someone else said but only if we beat NY. A loss to NY and we are all but dead. 

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by goskins10
Remove tie breaker reference for Seattle and the Lions. Our Tie with NY at least for now removes the tie breakers.

[Warhead36]

Our tie with the Giants means we dont need to worry about not having the tie breakers against the Lions or Seahawks unless they also get a tie at some point. 

 

Basically if we get to 9, they have to get to 10 to surpass us. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

18 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

I posted this in thj game day thread but probably better here. Updated to refelct Seattle's loss. 

 

 

Ok, becasue I had to - Washington PO picture: with 2 spots up fro grabs from really 4 teams: 

 

Seatle - 7-6  Games remaining - 

49ers (Home) - Cheifs (Away) - Jets (Home) - Ram (Home)  - Could easily go 1-3. Get to 9-8 put them in play but could also easily go 2-2. 10-7 and they are in as it appears they likely own the tie-breaker - common games unless we beat the 49ers. The trie hurts as they beat NY. They control thier own PO spot, even if they lose to Carolina but they have some tough games left. Not an easy road. 

 

 

 

 

As kleese pointed out before, tiebreakers don't play any role against Seattle unless they end up tying one of their remaining games as well. If not, they need to win one more game than we do--if we go 2-2 the rest of the way Seattle has to go 3-1 in order to get in ahead of us.

[kingdaddy]

31 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

I posted this in thj game day thread but probably better here. Updated to refelct Seattle's loss. 

 

 

Ok, becasue I had to - Washington PO picture: with 2 spots up fro grabs from really 4 teams: 

 

Seatle - 7-6  Games remaining - 

49ers (Home) - Cheifs (Away) - Jets (Home) - Ram (Home)  - Could easily go 1-3. Get to 9-8 put them in play but could also easily go 2-2. 10-7 and they are in as it appears they likely own the tie-breaker - common games unless we beat the 49ers. The trie hurts as they beat NY. They control thier own PO spot, even if they lose to Carolina but they have some tough games left. Not an easy road. 

 

Commanders - 7-5-1 - Games Remaining - 

Giants (Home) - 49ers (Away) - Browns (Home) - Dallas (home) - Hard to call hjonestly. I like us against the Giants and Browns. 49ers are very likely a loss. Dallas could depend on what they have to play for. I will call it 2-2 - we hold the tie breakers agsint the Giants at that point (division record) 

 

Giants - 7-5-1 - Games remaining - 

Commanders (Away) - Vikings (Away) - Colts (home) - Eagles (Away) - I will call ours a loss. Vikings likely a loss. Colts who knows. Eagles depends on what they are playing for. Whoever wins next week has contrrol over thier playoffs. If they win, they have the head to head tie breaker. If us, we own the division record since head to head would be a split. 

 

Detroit - 6-7 - Games Remianing - 

Jets (away) - Panthers (away) - Bears (Home) - Packers (away) - COuld easily go 3-1 and maybe 4-0 although 2 div games o nthe road no matter how bad those teasm are could be trouble. 

 

Seattle has the easiest road in. They coul;d go 1-3 and still likely get in due to thier beating NY and having a better common opponenet record against us. Not sure how they line up against th Liopns. So it's us, the Lions and the Giants for #7. A win against the Giants eliminates them for all intents and purposes. They would be a game behind and down in the tie breakers. They have to go 3-0 and home we go 1-2 at best. Possible but unlikely. Of course if they win, we are the ones in big trouble. Lions have an easy road the way they are playing and considering thier opponenets. 3-1 is not a stretch. They may even go 4-0. And they own the tie breaker with us. 

 

Couple of thoughts: 

- Carolina beating Seattle gives them new life and makes them a harder win for Detroit. Carolina is playing inspired for their new head coach.

- I disagree that Seattle has the easiest road, Washington has 3 home games left and is coming off of a bye week to let them re-charge for the stretch run. Wouldn't surprise me if we beat the Niners on Xmas Eve....lets put some pressure on Purdy and see how he responds. 

- Remember how much the NYG nation complained about the Eagles tanking in week 18 vs WFT at home pretty much gifting us the division title in 2020? Will the Eagles play to beat the NYG in week 18 this year? I think they will since they'll be at home and will have a bye the next week. Don't want to sit your starters for too long do you? I think the Eagles backups could beat the NYG anyway.

- Lions do have a pretty easy road but this is new territory for them to be in....they could easily lose to the NY Jets and even Aaron Rodgers.

[Warhead36]

My prediction is that its us and the Lions that get in. Not sure about the seedings though. 

[goskins10]

35 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

 

As kleese pointed out before, tiebreakers don't play any role against Seattle unless they end up tying one of their remaining games as well. If not, they need to win one more game than we do--if we go 2-2 the rest of the way Seattle has to go 3-1 in order to get in ahead of us.

 

Yea, forgot the tie removes tie breaker issues with Seattle, well anyone but NY. Can we go 2-2? I hope so. We have to beat NY I believe., It's not impossible if we lose but the road gets exponentially harder if we lose to NY. But if wqe win th road gets much easier. 

 

Last time we needed to beat NY to get in they had nothing to paly for and we laid a huge egg. But fair enoguh this is a different team. This will show a lot. COming off a bye against a divisional rival who just had thier head handed to them basically with the POs on the line. Who wants it more? 

 

 

[method man]

The Lions are the best of the 4 teams making a run for the final 2 spots. They have an explosive offense with a fantastic OL, the best overall WR corps in the NFC (they are legit 5 deep with Jamo back) and 2 good RBs. Their D lacks talent but they play an aggressive style to generate sacks and TOs.

 

They should be favorites in all 4 games remaining. The Jets may be missing Quinnen Williams and Mike White in that matchup. The Panthers are the biggest threat for a loss - as someone else mentioned, they are using our formula to win games, relying on their three backs and defense (Which has at least 2 good to great players at all 3 levels)

 

The Panthers came through for us once. We them to come through for us once more

 

I think Seattle finishes 9-8 in a best case scenario and likely 8-9

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Interesting stat of sorts...

 

14. Seattle Seahawks (7-6): Seattle has given up 90 points on 33 drives since its bye week. That’s 2.73 points per drive which would be far and away the worst in the NFL over the course of the season. The Seahawks have been exposed.

[Ball Security]

It’s very easy to see Dallas not having anything to play for in week 18, especially if they lose to the Eagles in two weeks.  If we win and Dallas beats Jax next week, then loses to Philly, the only way they can’t get the 5 seed is if we run the table.  If we are at 10-5-1 and they are 11-5, then they’ll go all out against us.  But in that scenario we are at  10 wins and in.  In the more likely scenario that they’ve wrapped up the fifth seed, but can’t get the division ( a loss to Philly eliminates that possibility) they won’t suit up Parsons, Prescott, Pollard, Lamb, and Lawrence.

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

Assuming it all works out obviously, 

Whom do You want to Play?

 

1. Vikings

2. 49’ers

I don’t think we’ll get a chance at the Bucs.. 

 

It makes me wonder how the 49’ers handle our game coming up given we may be headed towards a matchup in the first round. 

 

I almost feel I’d rather the Vikings, not sure.
How do you guys feel about it? 

 

 

 

 

[kleese]

People are over-exaggerating how hard it will be to make playoffs if we lose to Giants. 
 

No doubt if we lose Sunday, finishing ahead of Giants will be tough. But if we lose to Giants and win out, we are 95% going to get in. 

Where people are getting this wrong is the scenario where we lose to Giants and then finish 2-1 to end at 9-7-1. 
 

In that scenario, I’d say we have about a 60-70% to still get in.

 

If we lose to NY and finish 9-7-1, we would need TWO of the following to get in: 

 

—Giants finish 0-3

—Seahawks finish 2-2 or worse 

—Lions lose once 

[Skinsinparadise]

52 minutes ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

Assuming it all works out obviously, 

Whom do You want to Play?

 

1. Vikings

2. 49’ers

I don’t think we’ll get a chance at the Bucs.. 

 

It makes me wonder how the 49’ers handle our game coming up given we may be headed towards a matchup in the first round. 

 

I almost feel I’d rather the Vikings, not sure.
How do you guys feel about it? 

 

 

 

 

 

I talked about it a little on the QB thread.

 

I think they have a good chance against Minny.  I think they get destroyed by SF. 

[MrJL]

one thing I'm noticing by a lot of the playoff matchup talk.  I feel like a lot of potential games this year are rematches, and even fairly late season rematches.  Is that good or bad for the NFL?

[kleese]

Rooting Guide for the Upcoming Week with some “sleeper” stuff to pay attention to: 

 

49ers over Seahawks: For all the obvious reasons. If Seattle loses this one, they are in a world of hurt with a trip to Arrowhead looming. The Jets the following week won’t be a picnic either. Not a must win for Seattle but their loss to Carolina really puts the pressure on them here. I called the Carolina win last week and now this week I’m a little worried about a Seattle bounce-back. It’s a much bigger game for Seahawks than Niners, at home, short week, no Deebo, maybe Purdy due for a fall, etc etc. So I’ll be a little antsy about this one— I will say the Seahawks defense is terrible and their run D is just abysmal. Bad team to be playing when you can’t stop the run. The “hidden” benefit to the Niners winning is if they win, they clinch the division— and they keep the heat on Vikings who play Giants on Christmas Eve. It may also make them a tad less motivated in their game against us. If they beat Seattle, their final 3 games really aren’t that big for them. A SF win has one obvious and a couple of more subtle advantages for us. 
 

Jets over Lions: If we clinch, I’ll actually start rooting for the Lions— fun team and I’d love to see them get a shot at someone in playoffs. But for now, I’d prefer to remove them from our mix. Again, if we get 10 wins, Lions don’t matter. If we get to 9 wins, we just need them to lose once. I won’t be on pins and needles for this one by any means, but I’ll be pulling for the Jets for sure— they kinda owe us one against Detroit from 1997 (let’s see who else remembers that). 
 

As far as the rooting guide goes, those are the only two that REALLY matter. If you want to dig a bit deeper— or a LOT deeper: 

 

Colts over Vikings: Would keep the Vikings highly motivated for their game the following week vs Giants 

 

Panthers over Steelers: I like the Panthers odds to win their division. They will be right there with a win over Pitt. Carolina plays Detroit next week— would love for that game to have big meaning for Carolina. 
 

Rams over Packers: This is a crazy stretch, but if you are calculating our chances to get in at 8-8-1, then we’d need GB to lose one more.

 

I am undecided on what I want in the Eagles and Cowboys games. On one hand, you could argue we want whatever locks Dallas into their spot before week 18, lessening the odds they play their full starters against us. At same time that would mean Philly would have little to play for week 18 vs Giants. There really isn’t a scenario now where Dallas would be locked into the 5 seed and Eagles were still playing for the 1 seed. So it’s pick your poison on that one. I don’t really have a rooting interest there. I GUESS with Jags, Eagles. Titans on deck you could argue a Dallas collapse and we could still catch them, but that isn’t on my radar. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

He'll miss our game anyway...and if we end up playing the 49ers in the playoffs he could miss that game, too.

 

 

[HigSkin]

If White doesn't play in that Lions game, Jets are in trouble because the Lions are hot.

 

 

[Franklin60]

1 hour ago, kleese said:

 

I am undecided on what I want in the Eagles and Cowboys games. On one hand, you could argue we want whatever locks Dallas into their spot before week 18, lessening the odds they play their full starters against us. At same time that would mean Philly would have little to play for week 18 vs Giants. There really isn’t a scenario now where Dallas would be locked into the 5 seed and Eagles were still playing for the 1 seed. So it’s pick your poison on that one. I don’t really have a rooting interest there. I GUESS with Jags, Eagles. Titans on deck you could argue a Dallas collapse and we could still catch them, but that isn’t on my radar. 

As a point of reference, in last year’s finale between the Eagles and Cowboys in a game that didn’t matter to either team, the Eagles played their backups while the Cowboys played their regulars and won handily. Knowing the Eagles as well as I do, I’m pretty sure they would play backups against the Giants if the game doesn’t matter. I think it’s far more likely that the Cowboys go all out under similar circumstances.

[kleese]

30 minutes ago, Franklin60 said:

As a point of reference, in last year’s finale between the Eagles and Cowboys in a game that didn’t matter to either team, the Eagles played their backups while the Cowboys played their regulars and won handily. Knowing the Eagles as well as I do, I’m pretty sure they would play backups against the Giants if the game doesn’t matter. I think it’s far more likely that the Cowboys go all out under similar circumstances.

I think it is different this year. 
 

The Eagles will already have a bye week secured. The may not want to completely sit everyone and have their guys out for essentially two films weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if they treated it more like a pre-season game and started guys and got them out quickly. That said, the last thing we’d want is to be in a situation where the Eagles HAD to win week 18. 

Edited December 12, 2022 by kleese

[JSSkinz]

I wouldn't expect Purdy to continue playing like he has, it could happen but the Bucs are really bad, worst Brady lead team I've seen in his entire career.

[Ball Security]

56 minutes ago, kleese said:

I think it is different this year. 
 

The Eagles will already have a bye week secured. The may not want to completely sit everyone and have their guys out for essentially two films weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if they treated it more like a pre-season game and started guys and got them out quickly. That said, the last thing we’d want is to be in a situation where the Eagles HAD to win week 18. 

The Eagles clinch the 1 seed if they win the next two weeks.  That would be three weeks of their starters not playing if they choose to sit them.

[kleese]

This is getting WAY ahead of ourselves, but for those that like to indulge in such speculation—- if we make the playoffs I would mentally prepare yourselves for a Sat game. I’ll spare you the details, but the way things shake out with the network rules/schedule this year, it will almost certainly be two NFC games on Sat and one at 4:25 Sun— which will most likely be reserved for Dallas. Maybe if they play Carolina or Atlanta that could change but it’s probably close to a lock if they play TB. 

1 minute ago, Ball Security said:

The Eagles clinch the 1 seed if they win the next two weeks.  That would be three weeks of their starters not playing if they choose to sit them.

Yep, and I don’t think they want to do that. 

[88Comrade2000]

Updated going into Week 15

 

Overall Record/Conference Record

 

1. Eagles (12-1/7-1):   @Bears, @Boys, Saints, Giants

2. Vikings (10-3/6-3):  Colts, Giants, @Packers, @Bears

3. 49ers (9-4/7-2): @Seahawks,Commies,@Raiders,Cards

4. Bucs (6-7/6-3):  Bengals @Cards, Panthers, @Falcons

 

5. Boys (10-3/7-3):  @Jags,Eagles,@Titans,@Commies

6. Commies  (7-5-1/4-4-1):  Giants, @49ers, Browns, Boys

7. Giants (7-5-1/3-5-1):  @Commies, @Vikings, Colts, @Eagles

 

8. Seahawks (7-6/5-5):  49ers,@Chiefs,Jets,Rams

9. Lions (6-7/5-4):  @Jets, @Panthers, Bears, @Packers

11. Panthers (5-8/4-5):  Steelers, Lions, @Bucs, @Saints

12. Falcons. (5-8/4-5):   @Saints, @Ravens, Cards, Bucs

 

Green Bay is currently 10th and not a factor for playoffs. Only listing Carolina and Atlanta because they are only a game back from Tampa and have a shot at the NFC South. Even if Arizona wins tonight, they would still be in 13th place.

 

I agree with Warhead, think it was him, saying Us and Lions make the playoffs and Seattle and New York don't.

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by 88Comrade2000