kleese

Appears schedule could be released as early as Thursday, so I guess it's time to mock.... Sunday, September 8th (1pm): Commanders at Giants Sunday, September 15th (1pm): Titans at Commanders Monday, September 23rd (8pm): Bears at Commanders Sunday, September 29th (1pm): Commanders at Eagles Sunday, October 6th (4:25pm): Cowboys at Commanders Sunday, October 13th (1pm): Commanders at Saints Sunday, October 20th (1pm): Falcons at Commanders Monday, October 28th (8pm): Steelers at Commanders BYE Thursday, November 7th (8pm): Commanders at Ravens Sunday, November 17th (1pm): Eagles at Commanders Sunday, November 24th (1pm): Commanders at Cowboys Sunday, December 1st (1pm): Browns at Commanders Sunday, December 8th (4:05pm): Commanders at Cardinals Sunday, December 15th (1pm): Panthers at Commanders Sunday, December 22nd (1pm): Commanders at Bucs Sunday, December 29th (1pm): Commanders at Bengals Sunday, January 5th (TBA): Giants at Commanders I struggled this year; usually I have some "gut" feels, but not so much for 2024. I will stick to my guns that our Thursday game will be at Baltimore. I think the Thursday game + 2 MNF games sounds about right for us-- and I'd expect them to come within first 10 games of the season or thereabouts. I threw in one 4:25 featured game v Dallas as well, although I'm pretty iffy on that. I don't expect a SNF game, but one of our Dallas games being on SNF wouldn't shock me. I'll say we open AND close with the Giants.

There is a 0% chance of this. The opening SNF game is essentially the most coveted slot of opening weekend and almost always consists of SB-quality teams from the year before or a VERY high profile traditional match-up like Cowboys-Giants or Bears-Packers. I do think Bears at Commanders is an easy/attractive game to add to the TNF or MNF menu.

Now that the draft is over, I think Washington probably marginally improved odds for some prominent games. If we were a “C” team prior to draft, I imagine we are a “C+” now. I think you’ll see a small bump in our “schedule profile” this year. Mock coming soon!

The caveat here is the ever-changing landscape of the NFL schedule. Adding the W1 Friday game, adding the Black Friday game, adding the MNF DHs, adding the Wednesday Christmas games and more Sat games later in year, et. I think the last few years the league went out of their way to avoid us in more prominent spots for obvious reasons. Now, I think that particular cloud has lifted. For sure, the on-field product isn’t enough to make them want to feature us, but I’d bet we get placed in a few more second tier national slots than most would expect.

Been awhile since we opened with Dallas… 2010, right? Am I forgetting one? So that has crossed my mind, but as you correctly point out.. Dallas is almost always in one of the marquee W1 spots. We know Chiefs, Eagles, and Packers will be accounted for PRIOR to Sunday… so you need a big time SNF game, a good option at 4:25 and probably at least a decent choice for MNF that doesn’t involve any of those 3 teams. You’d think Cowboys for sure factor in there with the Niners, Ravens, Lions being in mix as well. The only way we land in a big W1 slot is if it’s vs Dallas. Right now I’m leaning to a ho-hum opener… at home v Titans or Panthers; maybe on road at Tampa.

I create this thread yearly… while most fans are deep in draft mocks, I am dreaming of the schddule release and those mocks. As avid of a fan as I am, I do not enjoy much draft talk as I think no one really knows anything. But we DO know that a 17 game schedule will be released sometime in mid May and that’s even more important to me than the draft because every year when the schedule drops, it’s like MY schedule for the fall is being released as well. I started doodling mock schedules on my folders at school in the 80s and 90s— back when the scheduling rules and patterns were less set in stone. Also clearly remember checking the newspaper daily from sometime in late March as there was never any sort of announcement in advance. One day it was just there (used to be released much earlier in spring). As far as the 2024 schedule goes, we don’t know much… and I’d take any rumors at this point with a grain of salt. Rumors swirled that the first Brazil game was going to be Browns-Eagles and turns out it will be Packers-Eagles. We do know who (and where) we will play. What else do we know? —Bears, Jaguars, Vikings designated as London teams. I THINK this means they will “host” those games— we do not play road games with any of them. —Panthers designated for Germany. We host them this year so I don’t believe we’d be eligible for that either. Only asterisk would be if there isn’t a home or road designation for those games yet. But I don’t expect us to be on the International slate this year. —We will not be opening up on the first Thurs or Fri of season. Chiefs will host Thursday and we do not play them. Eagles will play Packers that Friday from Brazil, so we obviously also know Eagles won’t be our week 1 opponent. Gonna wait until post-draft to drop Mock 1.0; in general, I’d expect us to be handed a “modest” allocation of games on the national plate. Probably 1-2 more marquee spots than we’ve gotten the last couple of years for mostly obvious reasons. It was a surprise last year we weren’t on MNF—especially with the added games; I expect that to change this year. I WILL be surprised if we land on SNF; only way I see that is if it’s one of the Dallas games; probably early in the year. The NFL tries to limit travel for Thursday games, so I’m leaning hard to predicting at Ravens could be our Thursday game this season. I would not expect us on Thanksgiving this year.

It’s officially official: we done. Only thing left now is to find out our finalized 2024 opponents. Three games still TBA. If season ended today we’d play at Arizona, host the Titans, and I think play the Bears again.

I actually think we will play fairly well and cover the 6.5 points Sunday. It’s hung under 7 all week… sometimes that’s a strong tell because no doubt the public money will all be going on Rams.

Breaking all kinds of new ground this season.... The final score on Thanksgiving was the 20th NFL game to end 45-10 with 19/20 being in the regular season. The lone playoff game was the Patriots smoking the Broncos in the 2013 Divisional round (the Tebow year for Denver). Of the 19 regular season games, Washington has been involved in four-- all on the losing end. 1985: Loss at Bears 1998: Loss vs 49ers 2013: Loss vs Chiefs 2023: Loss at Cowboys --1985 was a rarity in the Gibbs era-- a blowout loss. 1985 wasn't a great year for the team. Really struggled with a team getting older. Joey T going down to LT on MNF and being replaced by Schroeder actually gave the team a bump to a stronger finish-- early to middle part of season was a bit rough. That day in Chicago we led 7-0 at halftime and then proceeded to give up 31 second quarter points. This Jim McMahon threw a TD pass to Walter Payton and Walter Payton threw a TD pass to Jim McMahon. Joey T has had his infamous 7 yard punt in this game. --It would be 14 seasons before another NFL game ended 45-10, and it was us doing the honors again. Expectations were high in 1998, but a bad loss week one to Giants sucked a lot of life out of the team. The next week our home opener was on MNF vs the Niners. Much like the Bears game, we jumped out to a 7-0 lead--- then the wheels fell off. It was 21-10 at halftime (just like Thanksgiving this year) and then a total drubbing in second half en route to our 0-7 start that season. --We were 3-9 entering the Chiefs game in 2013, so it didn't really hurt per se, but it did wind up being sort of the symbolic end to the Shanny and RG3 era with the now famous halftime pic of the nearly empty stadium on a snowy day. It's pretty hard to give up 38 points in a half, but we accomplished that this game. --No need to rehash Thanksgiving, but I'll point out that I was there-- actually thought we were competitive up until the failed the fourth and one midway through third quarter. Total meltdown from there. The game against Miami was not only a Washington Scorigami and it was an NFL scorigami! First time in NFL history a game has ended 45-15. Maybe we can make it two games in a row vs Rams

I don’t think the Rams game is a long shot per se. Now if our team has truly just quit and thrown in the towel, then sure, it won’t matter who they play. But assuming the team prepares normally and plays at a normal expected NFL level, the Rams game is likely within reach for them. The spread being under a TD is a bit of a tell as well.

Actually I did just that! Check the playoff thread.

OK, I just had to…. if we finish 8-9 there are a number of scenarios that get us in. None of them require ties or extreme results either. I’d put the chances of us making it at 8-9 somewhere around 35% or thereabouts. If we win our next two then I’d say we’d for sure still be alive Christmas morning. Let’s not discuss the odds of us going 4-0 though. But yes I am aware of who would be the most preferable teams to lose should we start to win.

I tried to resist going to the Playoff Machine, I really did. But I ultimately couldn’t resist. Let me just say, there is a not-so-far-fetched scenario where we would get in if we go 8-9. Just. Sayin’.

This thread is about as close to dead as the team is… but because going 5-0 would probably give us better than a 75% chance of making it I guess we can go through the playoff motions for another week. I do believe BOTH the Vikings and Seahawks are in danger of a major crash down stretch. That said, the odds of us going 5-0 are hilarious. I actually wouldn’t be shocked if we are game vs Miami next week. I’ll probably at least be betting us to cover spread that day.

Second week in a row I’m a little surprised at how rare this final score has been over league history. Our game was only the 16th instance of 31-19. Being the NFL Films nerd that I am, I immediately thought of Super Bowl 14 when our game went final…Steelers over Rams following the 1979 season; a somewhat surprisingly fun/competitive game. All other games took place in regular season. This was the first time in franchise history a game has ended 31-19. Oddly enough, had the score remained 24-19 that also would have been a franchise first. Didn’t really find anything of note in the other 15 games (besides the SB of course). First game took place in 1951 (49ers over Packers). The most recent 13 games have all taken place since 1985. All I got.