The All Things PLAYOFFS 2022 Thread

[kleese]

First, the yearly disclaimer: 

 

—This thread is intended for mathematical and “who to root” for purposes. Reality and what is likely to happen does not exist in this dojo. 
 

—When discussing possibilities, we are ASSUMING Commanders take care of business. You will hear me say things like “I’m not worried about the Falcons.” And yes, a thread on a Falcons site can very well same the same about us. Again, this assumes we get to where we need to be. 
 

—No doubt the current Snyder possibilities trump anything that could possibly happen on the field the rest of this year. His removal is paramount now; but I’m still enjoying the games as they come and I actually LIKE this team more than any since 2016. Our defense is legit good and they are fun to watch. Also like the playmakers on offense. Team is playing hard and is easy to root for. Hoping they can keep it interesting. Here is how they do that…

 

The NFC landscape is top heavy. That 7 seed (and MAYBE the 6 seed) will be up for grabs. Let’s analyze that: 

 

—I give us 0% chance at the East. That’s done. Even if we somehow beat Philly Monday, that ship has sailed. Philly is winning the division and if they stumble just a bit, I only see Dallas as a possibility to overtake them. It certainly won’t be us so that isn’t even going to be listed as a possibility here. The focus is capturing the 7 seed. 
 

—So I am conceding the East to Philly and conceding the top WC to Dallas— SLIGHT chance that could flip-flop. 
 

—Vikings have total control of North and I do not think they will produce a second playoff team. I don’t see Pack rallying, and if they do, I don’t think they’d pass us given we hold the head to head with them. 
 

—I think Bucs will pull away and win South with room to spare. Regardless, I think that is also a one-playoff-team division. Atlanta is lingering, but we have the opportunity to control our destiny with them. 
 

—So if you eliminate WC possibilities from the South and North and concede one WC to the East…. That leaves two main targets on our radar: 

 

The Giants and whoever finishes second in the West (Seahawks or Niners). Rams are still out there too in that second place mix I suppose. So we will just say whoever finishes second in West. 
 

Now, we don’t need BOTH the Giants and the second place west team to falter— just one. 
 

I think 9-8 is the number. We need to get to 9 wins. SLIM chance 8 could do it. Also a chance we’d have to get to 10, but I think a 9-8 team will get in as a WC. 
 

If you are a math wizard like me, then you know that if a team is 4-5, they need to finish 5-3 the rest of the way in order to achieve 9-8. So that’s what we are doing here— assuming we finish 5-3 or better. 
 

The Giants have an odd remaining schedule. The next two look like cake: Texans and Lions at home. I’m predicting they split those two games, but even if they sweep— they’d be 8-2 with this on board:

 

at Cowboys 

Commaders 

at Eagles 

at Commanders 

 

So they for sure would still be in play. And if they were to lose one of their games to Houston or Detroit, then they’d really be catchable. 
 

—In the West, I am pretty confident the Niners finish strong and beat out the Seahawks. Seattle has been super impressive but I still think they could slide from here. We should be rooting against both of those teams, hoping one falters second half of season. 
 

Here is our most realistic path to being in the race: 

 

—Lose at Philly (I have very little hope for win Monday) 

 

—Beat Texans and Falcons 

 

Enter first Giants game at 6-6. 
 

—Split with Giants 

 

Enter final three games at 7-7. At that juncture I think 3-0 would put us in as a lock. 2-1 would keep us in it through week 18 probably depending on other results and tie-breakers. If we were to beat Philly (or better yet sweep

Giants) we would enter the final 3 games at 8-6 and we’d have a VERY high likelihood of getting in. 

 

In other words, even at 4-6 there will be a pretty simple and not far-fetched path to AT LEAST playoff picture relevance; if not a berth itself. If they can keep me interest into the second week in Jan, that will be a win. 
 

So, the “who to root for” this week: 

 

—Already got one good result with Panthers beating Falcons. 
 

The big ones:

 

—Bucs over Seahawks 

—Texans over Giants 

—Chargers over 49ers 

 

Not that big of a deal, but why not: 

 

—Steelers over Saints 

—Packers over Cowboys 

—Cardinals over Rams (I guess) 

[Koolblue13]

[Cooleyfan1993]

@Koolblue13 clearly doesn’t get the purposes of this thread. Kleese isn’t saying any of this will happen. He’s only saying what would HAVE to happen, if the team wants to be in the playoffs. 
 

that gif isn’t necessary in this thread. Leave the negativity out of here. 

[SkinsFTW]

 

[88Comrade2000]

I think the only spot is the 7th wild card.

 

San Fran may pass up Seattle but right now they have a 2 game lead. 
 

I think the West sends both Seattle and San Fran to the playoffs.  If Washington wants in, they likely need to sweep the Giants and overtake them.

 

I also think that’s extremely unlikely. When Carson returns, he won’t be any better than he was. He can’t do **** with our oline. We may beat Atlanta and Houston, more due to defense but I think Giants could sweep us and that would be it.

[Franklin60]

I think it’s unrealistic to think a nine win team will make the playoffs. Especially with the Giants and Cowboys already at six wins apiece and the Seahawks leading their division with six wins. You’d really need the 49ers to collapse for them to not make the playoffs. 

 

If y’all want to make it as the seventh seed, you ought to have your sights set on ten wins. You’d have a shot there. 

[KDawg]

4 hours ago, Franklin60 said:

I think it’s unrealistic to think a nine win team will make the playoffs. Especially with the Giants and Cowboys already at six wins apiece and the Seahawks leading their division with six wins. You’d really need the 49ers to collapse for them to not make the playoffs. 

 

If y’all want to make it as the seventh seed, you ought to have your sights set on ten wins. You’d have a shot there. 

Yup. We are a long ways from playoff contention.  The Falcons and Texans are not foregone conclusions as many seem to think, either. We have to win six of our last eight, in a field that includes Philly, Dallas, Giants x2, SF and Cleveland. That’s 6 of the last 8 game against good football teams (Cleveland the wildcard but they will have that QB back at that point)

[stoshuaj]

Lot of words for:  “pffft”

[Cooleyfan1993]

22 minutes ago, stoshuaj said:

Lot of words for:  “pffft”

If you think it’s just “pfffff”, then why are you in this thread? This thread is for people that want to entertain the possibilities (as unlikely as they may be) while they’re still there. 

[kleese]

6 hours ago, Franklin60 said:

I think it’s unrealistic to think a nine win team will make the playoffs. Especially with the Giants and Cowboys already at six wins apiece and the Seahawks leading their division with six wins. You’d really need the 49ers to collapse for them to not make the playoffs. 

 

If y’all want to make it as the seventh seed, you ought to have your sights set on ten wins. You’d have a shot there. 

I think every year I’ve followed the NFL, there has been at least one team that was riding high mid season and lost their grip over the second half. At this point last year, Cardinals were looking like the #1 seed— wound up barely squeaking into playoffs and getting housed in round 1. Ravens were 8-3 and missed playoffs. Chargers also stumbled after looking good mid season. And that’s just last year. 
 

Odds and history tell us SOMEONE who looks good now won’t finish the season strong. Of course that’s not a lock, but it would probably be more surprising if it DID NOT happen. 
 

Yes, right now the trend is that last WC team will get to 10 wins— I think that is likely to change though. 

49 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

If you think it’s just “pfffff”, then why are you in this thread? This thread is for people that want to entertain the possibilities (as unlikely as they may be) while they’re still there. 

Not a battle worth fighting. No need for thread police— it’s an open forum, doesn’t bother me. Yes, a tad confusing why someone would spend time in a specific thread if they aren’t interested in the specifics of the thread, but it’s fine. No biggie. 

[88Comrade2000]

I think expecting this team to take advantage of a team collapsing is expecting to much.

 

Taylor will perform poorly against the better teams. Carson will still have the same problems and not be able to do much with our oline and his own deficiencies. Sam, well to much to expect anything from a rookie.

 

 

[kleese]

7 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I think expecting this team to take advantage of a team collapsing is expecting to much.

 

Taylor will perform poorly against the better teams. Carson will still have the same problems and not be able to do much with our oline and his own deficiencies. Sam, well to much to expect anything from a rookie.

 

 

I am not expecting that either. I think we will finish with 7 or 8 wins. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

Yup. We are a long ways from playoff contention.  The Falcons and Texans are not foregone conclusions as many seem to think, either. We have to win six of our last eight, in a field that includes Philly, Dallas, Giants x2, SF and Cleveland. That’s 6 of the last 8 game against good football teams (Cleveland the wildcard but they will have that QB back at that point)

The only way we get close is if:

Currently 4-5:

 

Philly (L)

@Houston (W)

Atlanta (W)

-- That's 6-6

@Giants (L)

Bye

Giants (W)

-- That's 7-7

@49ers (L)

Cleveland (W - Really, they would need a split with the 49ers and Cleveland.  a 49ers win would be better.)

Dallas (W - because they are resting everybody because they are locked in and NOT the #1 seed and can't get there)

 

That's 9-8.

 

I think in the weak NFC, 9-8 could, and probably does, get you in. 

 

I agree with you that none of the wins are assured. Houston and Atlanta should probably be wins, but we're not very good either.  And beating the Giants is never easy, they tend to have our number almost always.

 

Most likely scenario, they lose to philly, then lose one of Houston or Atlanta, and are sitting there at 5-7,and that's probably too big a hill to climb no matter what.

 

But if they could get just average QB play from Wentz when he's healthy, assuming he's healthy and they put him back in there, they COULD do it with this schedule. OL would have to step up big-time also.  

 

I see no road if TH is the QB.  

 

I'd actually see more of a road if they put Howell in and used the same game plan.  Though who knows, TH could go on the "touched by God" run that Tebow had in 2011.  

Edited November 12, 2022 by Voice_of_Reason

[Warhead36]

I'm not sure 9 wins gets us in anymore. The Seahawks are legit. The Giants are already at 6 wins and have two cupcakes coming up before facing us and it'll be hard to sweep them. 

 

I actually think we'll finish 9-8 but end up one game back of the 7 seed. And likely lose our 2nd rounder in the process.

 

The ultimate purgatory. Such is the way for this franchise. 

[Zim489]

If they lose vs houston or atl the season is pretty much over. 

 

Man this team isnt deserving of the playoffs. 

[method man]

12 hours ago, Franklin60 said:

I think it’s unrealistic to think a nine win team will make the playoffs. Especially with the Giants and Cowboys already at six wins apiece and the Seahawks leading their division with six wins. You’d really need the 49ers to collapse for them to not make the playoffs. 

 

If y’all want to make it as the seventh seed, you ought to have your sights set on ten wins. You’d have a shot there. 

The question for the niners if they can stay healthy. They have a lot of injury prone players among their big names

[Stone Cold]

That’s a long winded, yet very informative, way of sayin Paloffs is Now!!!

[method man]

4 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

The only way we get close is if:

Currently 4-5:

 

Philly (L)

@Houston (W)

Atlanta (W)

-- That's 6-6

@Giants (L)

Bye

Giants (W)

-- That's 7-7

@49ers (L)

Cleveland (W - Really, they would need a split with the 49ers and Cleveland.  a 49ers win would be better.)

Dallas (W - because they are resting everybody because they are locked in and NOT the #1 seed and can't get there)

 

That's 9-8.

 

I think in the weak NFC, 9-8 could, and probably does, get you in. 

 

I agree with you that none of the wins are assured. Houston and Atlanta should probably be wins, but we're not very good either.  And beating the Giants is never easy, they tend to have our number almost always.

 

Most likely scenario, they lose to philly, then lose one of Houston or Atlanta, and are sitting there at 5-7,and that's probably too big a hill to climb no matter what.

 

But if they could get just average QB play from Wentz when he's healthy, assuming he's healthy and they put him back in there, they COULD do it with this schedule. OL would have to step up big-time also.  

 

I see no road if TH is the QB.  

 

I'd actually see more of a road if they put Howell in and used the same game plan.  Though who knows, TH could go on the "touched by God" run that Tebow had in 2011.  

More doable path tbh is to sweep the Giants. They are not a good team and are very reliant on the running game. Not betting on this team beating a Deshaun Watson led Browns attack

 

To your point, we’ll need the Cowboys to basically be locked into the first wild card and even then I can see us losing to their backups

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I'm not sure 9 wins gets us in anymore. The Seahawks are legit. The Giants are already at 6 wins and have two cupcakes coming up before facing us and it'll be hard to sweep them. 

 

I actually think we'll finish 9-8 but end up one game back of the 7 seed. And likely lose our 2nd rounder in the process.

 

The ultimate purgatory. Such is the way for this franchise. 

The current 7 seed is San Fran at 4-4.  The Bucs and us are both 4-5.

 

I tend to agree seeds 1-6 are out of reach, unless the Giants completely fall apart I don't see anybody catching them, and I think Seattle is actually good.

 

I also kindof think the last spot is entirely up for grabs by any of the other teams.  Is it LIKELY we get it?  No.  But I don't trust any of the 4 win teams to win 6 of their remaining games to get to 10 wins.

 

If I had to bet, I'd say it was either SF or Tampa who gets their stuff together.  But neither of those teams are legitimately good.  SF also has to play Chargers, Dolphins, Bucs and Seahawks in addition to the Saints, Cards (twice), Raiders and us.  Could they win 6 of those?  Sure.  But they would have to go 6-3.  Could they?  Sure.  Frankly, I think 5-4 is more likely.  

 

The Bucs probably have the easiest path schedule wise.  

 

But I think it's possible for any of the three teams to get to 9, and get in.  

3 hours ago, Zim489 said:

If they lose vs houston or atl the season is pretty much over. 

 

Man this team isnt deserving of the playoffs. 

You are what your record says you are.

 

Honestly, at this point, they've blown the chance of getting a super high draft pick, so I'd like them to at least try.  I don't think they're going to get there, but I think if they could at least have that last Dallas game mean something, it would be good.

 

But they almost HAVE to win both Houston and Atlanta and split with the Giants to have even a remote chance of it happening.  

[CommanderInTheRye]

This is a thread for the dreamers, the deceivers, and the delirious.

 

Since I possess more than a tad of all three of those qualities I'll play along with the rest of you shameless miscreants and confidently say:

 

Win six of eight-

and we'll be great!

 

Anything less-

forbids success.

 

 

.

 

Edited November 12, 2022 by CommanderInTheRye

[88Comrade2000]

Overall Record/Conference Record

 

1. Eagles (8-0/5-0): Commies. @Colts, Packers, Titans, @Giants, @Bears, @Boys, Saints, Giants

2. Vikings (7-1/6-1): @Bills, Boys, Pats, Jets, @Lions, Colts, Giants, @Packers, @Bears

3. Seahawks (6-3/4-3):  Bucs, Raiders, @Rams, Panthers, 49ers, @Chiefs, Jets, Rams

4. Bucs (4-5/4-2): Seahawks, @Browns, Saints, @49ers, Bengals @Cards, Panthers, @Falcons

 

5. Boys(6-2/5-2): @Packers, @Vikings, Giants, Colts, Texans, @Jags, Eagles, @Titans, @Commies

6. Giants(6-2/3-2): Texans, Lions, @Boys, Commies, Eagles, @Commies, @Vikings, Colts, @Eagles

7. 49ers(4-4/4-2):  Rams, @Cards in Mexico.*, Saints, Dolphins, Bucs, @Seahawks, Commies, @Raiders, Cards 

8. Commies(4-5/2-4): @Eagles, @Texans, Falcons, @Giants, Giants, @49ers, Browns, Boys

9. Falcons(4-6/3-4): Bears, @Commies, Steelers,, @Saints, @Ravens, Cards, Bucs

 

Everyone else has 3 or fewer wins.

[88Comrade2000]

Let’s see:

 

Eagles: 15-2

Vikings:13-4

Seahawks: 11-6

Bucs: 9-8

Boys: 13-4

Giants: 11-6

49ers: 12-5

Commies: 8-9

Falcons:7-11

 

I think the Top 7 likely to remain that way.  Don’t really see anyone collapsing.  The only 3 win team that could sneak into the picture, maybe the Rams.

[NoVaSkins21]

The Lions, Titans, and Vikings losses are going to haunt them big time at the end of the year.  

[kleese]

13 hours ago, NoVaSkins21 said:

The Lions, Titans, and Vikings losses are going to haunt them big time at the end of the year.  

They also had wins that could have gone either way. It’s the same for just about every team in the league that isn’t elite or awful. Games are close and often swing on a handful of plays. 75% of the league at end of year will probably be able to point to a handful of games/moments that cost them/helped them. 

[Koolblue13]

Man, sweeping the Gnats would be sweeter than 93's tears.