Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Renegade7]

On 6/26/2023 at 2:30 PM, Riggo-toni said:

I wish Progozhin had stayed in Rostov on Don, even if just for a week.  It would have meant a bigger disruption to supplies getting into Ukraine.

I don't believe all the wishful thinking that this is the beginning of the end for Putler. Saddam survived a much bigger military loss and subsequent uprising, but would probably still be in power or passed it on to his son if the US hadn't invaded. Erdogan escaped a coup attempt and despite near hyperinflation is still in power.  Vlad isn't going anywhere, and his successor Patrushev is even more anti-western.

 

A 71 year successor doesn't seem like a good idea...

[Riggo-toni]

2 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

A 71 year successor doesn't seem like a good idea...

And he's hated by the other Siloviki, but he is who Putler has named as his successor.  Putin has essentially wiped out any genuine potential rivals, and Patrushev controls the security forces, which he would be sure to exploit if Putler croaks.

[PeterMP]

6 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said:

And he's hated by the other Siloviki, but he is who Putler has named as his successor.  Putin has essentially wiped out any genuine potential rivals, and Patrushev controls the security forces, which he would be sure to exploit if Putler croaks.

 

Not sure how true it is, but I once read that in a dictatorship that successful coups are hard to predict because the successful ones almost always come from below the top level (what I read was talking more about military coups and they talked about the colonel level) because nobody ethical and competent could make it to the higher levels, the lower level people knew the people above them were either unethical or incompetent (or both), and wouldn't follow them.  But if you can get a couple of people at the colonel level that are competent and ethical that know and trust one another, then they could join up and carry out a coup.

 

Then as part of that if you are dictator, then to prevent a coup the key is to keep people at that level from getting to know and trust one another.  You need to move them around a lot and do things to sue distrust between them.  (But then makes it very hard to have your country succeed.

 

The Russian generals or people leading the military or secret police, I think are unlikely to launch a successful coup.  It would more likely be people actually involved in the conflict in Ukraine that is tired of seeing people get killed due the the corruption and incompetence of the people above them.

[Renegade7]

1 hour ago, Riggo-toni said:

And he's hated by the other Siloviki, but he is who Putler has named as his successor.  Putin has essentially wiped out any genuine potential rivals, and Patrushev controls the security forces, which he would be sure to exploit if Putler croaks.

 

71 jus feels like an age were anything can happen pretty soon from natural causes. 

 

And not sure how youth will take in the country realizing the country not only isn't changing but another one no where near their perspective generationally.

 

It's not changing governments in countries like Iran and Nigeria yet, but time goes on these younger ones will be the generations in power.  Feels like fighting gravity instead of trying meet anywhere in their differences, so I don't expect that eventual flip to be pretty at all.

 

71 screams not as many younger generations that feel where Putin and he are at right now.

Edited June 28, 2023 by Renegade7

[DCSaints_fan]

3 hours ago, PeterMP said:

 

Not sure how true it is, but I once read that in a dictatorship that successful coups are hard to predict because the successful ones almost always come from below the top level (what I read was talking more about military coups and they talked about the colonel level) because nobody ethical and competent could make it to the higher levels, the lower level people knew the people above them were either unethical or incompetent (or both), and wouldn't follow them.  But if you can get a couple of people at the colonel level that are competent and ethical that know and trust one another, then they could join up and carry out a coup.

 

Then as part of that if you are dictator, then to prevent a coup the key is to keep people at that level from getting to know and trust one another.  You need to move them around a lot and do things to sue distrust between them.  (But then makes it very hard to have your country succeed.

 

The Russian generals or people leading the military or secret police, I think are unlikely to launch a successful coup.  It would more likely be people actually involved in the conflict in Ukraine that is tired of seeing people get killed due the the corruption and incompetence of the people above them.

The problem with Putin is he knows every trick and is also whacked out paranoid.  Anyone who goes against him is risking death and they know it.   Coups require lots of cooperation and for things to go almost perfectly.  Its hard to "fish someone out" without knowing if they would be willing to go along with you, or if they would turn you into the boss.  So you have to be very careful what you say.  And you never know who's listening.

 

But they did get Beria so I guess anything is possible

 

 

Edited June 28, 2023 by DCSaints_fan

[CousinsCowgirl84]

3 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

.

 

71 screams not as many younger generations that feel where Putin and he are at right now.

I read an article that said Putins government has fostered the depoliticalization of Russia’s citizens over the past 20 years and that depoliticalization is what has allowed Putin to rule steadfast. So younger people in Russia aren’t like younh people in the US or Europe. Politics and who is in charge is above them, and they don’t really care.

 

So my opinion is that him dying won’t likely usher in a new era of just Russian governance led by young more democratic/liberal people, but by someone who cut the right deal at the right time with the Russian bureaucracy, oligarchy, and military leaders.

[Renegade7]

@CousinsCowgirl84 wasn't too long ago we saw some of the largest protest in Russia's history over this war with Ukraine.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/22/russia-protests-more-than-1300-arrested-at-anti-war-demonstrations-ukraine

 

I've also read some people are jus too scared to say how done they are with all this.  The next person might slither in place, but I don't see what Russia is doing as sustainable with their population decreases. 

 

They gonna have a lot of what people want as the planet warms and gonna need more friends then these current generations in power seem to want to make, but younger generations do.

[LD0506]

The possibility of a coup toppling Pooty & Co exists, but there may not be any power base that can seize and retain control. The biggest threat was the Russian military but after being savaged in Ukraine and humilated around the world, they're probably out of the running. It is one thing to break the current structure, it is quite a different thing to have the wherewithal to grab the wheel and drive. Any one of the kleptocrats just inherits the current situation made worse by their efforts to run the thing. None of them could get sanctions lifted or draw foreign capital back in. The Ukrainians definitely aren't going to give up and they're driving the Russians totally out of Ukraine would embolden other factions to revolt. Whether or not they could be successful is incidental, trying itself stresses the system more. So the chances of Russia as we know it collapsing are good but chaos breeds opportunity. Russians have spent the last thirty years seeing the rest of the world as it is instead of the crafted version the government fed them for most of a century. Instead of being some scary place full of people just waiting to attack Mother Russia, they've seen that for the most part it just rolls along and doesn't pay them much attention at all. They know what they lack that others take for granted. The younger generations want to be part of the world. They really prefer to have actual lives instead of just being held hostage for the chance to disrupt things elsewhere out of spite.

 

So what happens? I've been saying it forever, history is so damned unlikely, it's just shown us over and over again that the "experts" can only predict from the last data set, there is little or no vision in their opinions. The predictable thing rarely occurs and when it does, it meanders along finding it's own version of events. So I am all in on something unlikely, unpredictable and unbelieveable happening here.

 

I would love to see the women of Russia rise up and assume their birthright of having a say in their future. They are the sole demographic in Russia that could be cohesive enough to actually make things work, and the only one that could garner any outside support for their efforts. They are the one powerbase that could be seen with clean hands about all of Russia's baggage. They would instantly get the benefit of the doubt from other women's groups internationally just based on the sisterhood. Even one tiny glimmer of progress would be seized elsewhere by people desperate to believe in something better, and that could nudge it all forward. They could come in and do a lot right away that wouldn't cost a cent but would buy them some respectability internationally, like transparency about all the crap the previous regimes have done. Turn off the tap for all the efforts to destabilize the third world, and do it openly, that will get some attention. Genuinely open themselves to international aid, starting with the simple easy stuff like feeding children. This could change not only the future of Russia but literally the course of humankind.

 

But yeah, that would be so unlikely.......

[Riggo-toni]

 

 

[tshile]

Through my podcasts I’ve recently been introduced to the term

 

personalist dictatorship 

 

https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/rise-personalist-rule

 

im sure I’m late to the party on that but for anyone else unaware of that term until now, it’s an interesting one to learn about and how it differs from other authoritarian types of rule 

[kfrankie]

So...  a coup appears to have avoided for the time being.  But what would be the consequences of a coup?  Understanding that Putin is not going anywhere unless by force (dying is no a coup), here's a few potentials to chew on:

 

(1) Similar to what almost occurred last week, a military rival storms Moscow. This time, he advances to the Kremlin. Putin has lost the legislature's support (i guess they call it the Federation Council and State Duma hahaha), so the majority surrender and agree to work cooperatively with the new junta (or whatever).  Putin leaves Moscow, but still controls a portion of the military, and orders a tactical nuclear strike on Moscow

 

(2) Same scenario as above, but Putin leaves Moscow and orders nuclear strike on the city before the rebels reach the Kremlin, and a nuclear strike in on rebel forces approximately 20 miles outside of the City.

 

(3) Same scenario as above, but Putin orders the tactical nuclear strike on multiple areas in the region considered to be the rebellion's stronghold.

 

(4) Same scenario as above, but Putin simply lashes out at multiple groups, including the rebels, Ukraine, and Poland by ordering nuclear strikes.

 

(5) Putin is assassinated in his sleep, but upon learning of the rebellion, his most loyal lieutenants lash out at the region identified as being responsible.  Maybe even Ukraine. 

 

(6) Putin sees that his days are numbered, convinces the right people that the Country's destruction is imminent, and orders multiple nuclear strikes across the globe. He then commits suicide. 

 

(7) Putin believes this his days are numbered, and asks for China's assistance.  China see an opportunity to seize some level of control over the region, and agrees. China is not foolish, and prevents Putin from using nuclear weapons.  Full scale war breaks out in the region, and Poland is attacked. NATO intervenes, involving all of its members (including the U.S.).

 

I guess what I'm suggesting here is that there's a decent chance that a coup in Russia ends with the use of nuclear weapons. Remember, this is not Iraq where the dictator did not have that capability at his disposal. Another scenario could be a full blown conventional war.  Bottom line is that Putin is every bit as crazy as the classic guys we've seen throughout history (Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini, Kim Jung il, Saddam, the Ayatollah (1980 version), Kanye West, Mel Gibson, Roseanne, Susan Sarandon). The difference is that those guys either (1) were never attacked and died rather quietly, or (2) did not have nuclear weapons. I cannot see Putin going quietly unless the change comes through an operation involving his most trusted advisors/military brass, where his ability to command any sort of last second desperation strike is neutralized. So we may want to be careful what we wish for here. 

 

 

[TheGreatBuzz]

3 minutes ago, kfrankie said:

 

I guess what I'm suggesting here is that there's a decent chance that a coup in Russia ends with the use of nuclear weapons.

 

I'm probably the most negative poster here when it comes to predicting the apocalypse and I don't see any version of this happening.  At the end of the day, it's not one person involved in the physical act of launching the nuke.  He more order it but it won't happen.  No one is ready to start a nuclear war, on their own soil especially, for such a weak leader.

[kfrankie]

43 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

 

I'm probably the most negative poster here when it comes to predicting the apocalypse and I don't see any version of this happening.  At the end of the day, it's not one person involved in the physical act of launching the nuke.  He more order it but it won't happen.  No one is ready to start a nuclear war, on their own soil especially, for such a weak leader.

 

Just like no one was willing to invade a neighboring country for no legitimate reason?  We all know there was some dissent amongst the Russian forces, but most of them appear to have gone willingly on the promise that they'd bring home a quick and dirty victory, be national heroes, and re-established "Mother Russia," as a global force to be reckoned with. Great way for a 19 year old Siberian to get chicks when he returns to his hometown....

[Larry]

1 hour ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

 

I'm probably the most negative poster here when it comes to predicting the apocalypse and I don't see any version of this happening.  At the end of the day, it's not one person involved in the physical act of launching the nuke.  He more order it but it won't happen.  No one is ready to start a nuclear war, on their own soil especially, for such a weak leader.

Possible counter argument. 
 

While I agree that a lot of people might refuse to turn their key (or whatever), to launch a nuke at Russia, I'm not at all willing to just assume that they would know what target they're launching at. 

[TheGreatBuzz]

39 minutes ago, kfrankie said:

 

Just like no one was willing to invade a neighboring country for no legitimate reason?  

 

I don't know anyone that was saying this.  At any point in history, there is always someone invading someone else. 

 

On a broader note and to the rest of your posts, I have no ****ing clue what you're even talking about.   

12 minutes ago, Larry said:

Possible counter argument. 
 

While I agree that a lot of people might refuse to turn their key (or whatever), to launch a nuke at Russia, I'm not at all willing to just assume that they would know what target they're launching at. 

 

Possible I guess since none of us have a crystal ball but I'm not too concerned about this happening.  

[Riggo-toni]

If Surovikin gets whacked, it's great news for Ukraine as he is Russia's only competent general.  

 

Edited June 28, 2023 by Riggo-toni

[DogofWar1]

 

[DogofWar1]

On the balance, Surovikin is one of the smarter and more competent people of the bunch so him being pulled from the playing field is a net positive.

[PeterMP]

One thing that I think you have remember about Putin is he did this because he thought it was the key to Russia maintaining its status as a world power.

 

If he just wanted to live out his life in comfort as a dictator, he didn't really need to do this.  

 

I think that is important in the context of thinking about how this ends.  In the case of large scale nuclear launch, he'd have to know that he might bring the rest of the world down, but it would also be the end of Russia as a world power for the countries/people that do survive.  (Now with the stress of the war and age his mentality/stability might change, but assuming a consistent mentality/world view, it is hard to imagine a scenario where a large scale nuclear launch makes sense for Putin/Russia.)

[DogofWar1]

12 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

One thing that I think you have remember about Putin is he did this because he thought it was the key to Russia maintaining its status as a world power.

 

If he just wanted to live out his life in comfort as a dictator, he didn't really need to do this.

 

Mmm maybe.  But I'm not so sure.

 

One of the people I watch a fair bit Vlad Vexler believes this was actually about protecting and consolidating his rule.

 

Indeed in 2018 Russia implemented/sought to implement pension reforms that led to protests.  Putin's approval rating which had generally been in the 80's since the annexation of Crimea dropped to the mid-60's, and disapproval jumped from mid-high teens into the low-mid-30's.

 

When you factor in that Russians generally are unwilling to he completely forthcoming, 60% approval is probably pretty far underwater.

 

After he started the war his approval jumped back into the 80's and disapproval dropped back into the teens.

 

There's also the fact that Russia's economy has been largely stagnant for some time, which means he needs other avenues thru which to uphold his end of his dictator-social-contract.

[DCSaints_fan]

6 hours ago, PeterMP said:

One thing that I think you have remember about Putin is he did this because he thought it was the key to Russia maintaining its status as a world power.

 

If he just wanted to live out his life in comfort as a dictator, he didn't really need to do this.  

 

I think that is important in the context of thinking about how this ends.  In the case of large scale nuclear launch, he'd have to know that he might bring the rest of the world down, but it would also be the end of Russia as a world power for the countries/people that do survive.  (Now with the stress of the war and age his mentality/stability might change, but assuming a consistent mentality/world view, it is hard to imagine a scenario where a large scale nuclear launch makes sense for Putin/Russia.)

I think it was a reaction to a few things.  His guy wasn't in the White House anymore and the plan to soft  undermine NATO was stalled.  It was on the heels of the Brexit mess and the EU seemed to be coming apart at the seems.  After the Afghanistan debacle, he saw the US as a weak power that wasn't going to bother with further overseas adventures for a few years.  And its true - we were never going to commit ground troops to Ukraine and probably never air cover.  I think at the very least, he could dismember Ukraine, taking the entire left bank of the Dnipro, as well as significant areas on the right bank (especially Kyiv) along with the Black Sea coast, leaving a smallish rump state left around Lviv.

 

OTOH, the Biden administration gave the go ahead for UAF to start using the weapons we had sent them (Javelins) in the Donbas area.  So he wanted to forestall any potential offensive there.

 

But the last point, and probably the most crucial, was that he thought the FSB had infilitrated/bought off Ukrainian C&C, that Ukrainian leadership was dysfunctional, and the UAF would provide at best, an incoherent/scattered defense, and he could overwhelm them with rapid force movement and capture Ukraine mostly intact.   This was only partially true, e.g. that guy who left the Crimea approach undefended and let RuAF run all over Kherson, even crossing the Dnipro and Zaporhiza, trapping the Azov forces in Mariupol. The Russophiles who pointed out that the initial airstrikes by the RuAF were not as  intense as what the US did in 2003 Iraq , and could have been much worse, also had somewhat of a point.  For instance, the RuAF didn't go after more "strategic" targets such as the power grid.   Which is not necessary if you don't expect a very intense campaign.

 

So basically, he did it because he thought he could get away with it like Georgia, Crimea and Donbas.

Edited June 29, 2023 by DCSaints_fan

[The Sisko]

13 hours ago, kfrankie said:

So...  a coup appears to have avoided for the time being.  But what would be the consequences of a coup?  Understanding that Putin is not going anywhere unless by force (dying is no a coup), here's a few potentials to chew on:

 

(1) Similar to what almost occurred last week, a military rival storms Moscow. This time, he advances to the Kremlin. Putin has lost the legislature's support (i guess they call it the Federation Council and State Duma hahaha), so the majority surrender and agree to work cooperatively with the new junta (or whatever).  Putin leaves Moscow, but still controls a portion of the military, and orders a tactical nuclear strike on Moscow

 

(2) Same scenario as above, but Putin leaves Moscow and orders nuclear strike on the city before the rebels reach the Kremlin, and a nuclear strike in on rebel forces approximately 20 miles outside of the City.

 

(3) Same scenario as above, but Putin orders the tactical nuclear strike on multiple areas in the region considered to be the rebellion's stronghold.

 

(4) Same scenario as above, but Putin simply lashes out at multiple groups, including the rebels, Ukraine, and Poland by ordering nuclear strikes.

 

(5) Putin is assassinated in his sleep, but upon learning of the rebellion, his most loyal lieutenants lash out at the region identified as being responsible.  Maybe even Ukraine. 

 

(6) Putin sees that his days are numbered, convinces the right people that the Country's destruction is imminent, and orders multiple nuclear strikes across the globe. He then commits suicide. 

 

(7) Putin believes this his days are numbered, and asks for China's assistance.  China see an opportunity to seize some level of control over the region, and agrees. China is not foolish, and prevents Putin from using nuclear weapons.  Full scale war breaks out in the region, and Poland is attacked. NATO intervenes, involving all of its members (including the U.S.).

 

I guess what I'm suggesting here is that there's a decent chance that a coup in Russia ends with the use of nuclear weapons. Remember, this is not Iraq where the dictator did not have that capability at his disposal. Another scenario could be a full blown conventional war.  Bottom line is that Putin is every bit as crazy as the classic guys we've seen throughout history (Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini, Kim Jung il, Saddam, the Ayatollah (1980 version), Kanye West, Mel Gibson, Roseanne, Susan Sarandon). The difference is that those guys either (1) were never attacked and died rather quietly, or (2) did not have nuclear weapons. I cannot see Putin going quietly unless the change comes through an operation involving his most trusted advisors/military brass, where his ability to command any sort of last second desperation strike is neutralized. So we may want to be careful what we wish for here. 

Might wanna ease up on the wacky weed.😂

[TradeTheBeal!]

“Best idea Vlad’s ever had.” ~ @Spaceman Spiff, probably.

 

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Dude, ****in' a.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

What’s Zelensky gonna do against the hand slap game?