The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[NoCalMike]

One thing that frustrates me when going over analysis of Howell's play is that people expect him to escape the pocket like some of the other QBs but the difference is when QB's like Hurts or Josh Allen are escaping, a lot of times it's not because the pocket is collapsing and they're running for their lives, but because they drop back, have all day to find someone open, the coverage is good but their O-line is also still holding their blocks so they actually have open running lanes and nothing in the middle of the field to stop them.

 

When Howell drops back, the O-line is usually collapsing around him in multiple directions so the idea that he is just going to just juke his way to freedom is unrealistic.  If anything I would agree that he should be throwing the ball away when needed more, but I also understand why a 1st year starter is going to try and hold on until the absolute last second to salvage a play. That is the trait of a young QB.  I think Howell is great on the move when it is designed and/or when he has time & space to create extra time with his legs, but he isn't the type of QB that is going to juke out an entire pass rush when it's surrounding him on all sides.

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

21 minutes ago, MartinC said:

I’m excited by Howells performance and potential. But I can’t say he’s top 10 yet. He has the potential to be that though IMO.

To be clear, I’m not taking about him “as is”. I just think he will be a top ten guy. 

[MartinC]

7 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

To be clear, I’m not taking about him “as is”. I just think he will be a top ten guy. 

Agree - I think he’s got a real shot at that if we/he can get the sack issue under control.

[Warhead36]

He took some really bad sacks, but all in all hes a decent QB with upside to grow. 
 

Id say he’s around league average at the moment which is still a massive upgrade compared to what weve had since pre injury Alex Smith.

[Stihl89]

For a dude with zero elite traits, he is going to have to be good all around to be top 10.

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

Sam is outstanding for a guy making his 7th start.  He is accurate, always looking downfield, stout, durable, and tough as nails.  Just when you think it's punt time because its 3rd and 9 he laughs in your face and moves the chains easily.

 

With all that said, of the 34 sacks we've given up this year, my unscientific but educated eyeballs put at least 14 on him. Today I put all 5 on him. For real. The Oline is not great, and probably somewhere around 15th-23rd best in the league, but Sam needs to find a way to improve this area of his game, for his health and the teams success.

Edited October 16, 2023 by COWBOY-KILLA-

[MartinC]

44 minutes ago, Stihl89 said:

For a dude with zero elite traits, he is going to have to be good all around to be top 10.

Did you know Howell recorded the fastest throw at the NFL combine? He’s got a plus NFL arm. He’s got all the physical tools you need to be a quality NFL starter. His success will be determined by his processing ability (signs are positive there in terms of reading coverage) and decision making (mixed here - he’s generally making good decisions on where to go with the ball but he’s holding it too much and taking unnecessary sacks).

 

If the sack issue can be fixed my strong feeling is we really have something here.

[Fan since a Fetus]

3 hours ago, Stihl89 said:

For a dude with zero elite traits, he is going to have to be good all around to be top 10.

Curious, what elite traits are missing? Or what are the elite traits to you?

[Stihl89]

6 hours ago, MartinC said:

Did you know Howell recorded the fastest throw at the NFL combine? He’s got a plus NFL arm. He’s got all the physical tools you need to be a quality NFL starter. His success will be determined by his processing ability (signs are positive there in terms of reading coverage) and decision making (mixed here - he’s generally making good decisions on where to go with the ball but he’s holding it too much and taking unnecessary sacks).

 

If the sack issue can be fixed my strong feeling is we really have something here.

I can’t believe you’re using MPH speed. It’s one of the most notoriously misrepresented measurements in football. Kirk for instance has a higher mph than Sam. There’s almost zero correlation between success and this stat. Nor ability to drive the ball. 
 

Also your stat is wrong. Willis had the highest mph of the class and it wasn’t particularly close either. Also don’t know why you’re comparing to the rest of maybe the worst QB class in the last 15 years. If you look at Sam’s across any number of drafts he’s exceedingly average in this measurement. 
 

Sams arm is his best quality. I’d say it’s good but not close to elite. Of his season thus far we haven’t seen much in ability of tight window throws. His WRs aren’t getting open and he’s not risking making mistakes most of the time. 
 

He’s still small. Under average on weight. Not fast. Not agile. He’s a decent at best athlete. Elite QBs usually have at least something they can hang their hat on from a physical stand point. Sam doesn’t have anything close to that. 
 

You talk about the processing and right now that’s his biggest problem. That’s usually innate. Some growth can be made but it’s not a growth from fail to pass. It’s usually from good levels to great. Sam right now isn’t passing. I think we’re always going to have the sack issue with him. And at this point I’d say the issue is 80-20 him being the problem Vs the Oline. 
 

Personally I think this fan base such a bad case of Hopium regarding to the QB position given the past we have had here. So any QB that has shown any sort of flash is put on a pedestal. Especially given the nature of the league that if you don’t have an elite qb you essentially have zero chance of winning a SB let alone being deep in playoff contention with any sort of regularity I think it’s beyond weird. There’s just such a yearning for it that the fan base goes nuts for any type of QB soup in the Oliver Twist bowl of QB play. It’s the reason we have all these terrible hives over the years with the Cult of Colt and the Taylor hive. 
 

So ultimately for me in regards to the QB position to the fan base, along with many other aspects of this franchise, aim for higher levels of greatness. Don’t settle. Especially at QB. Landing in the middle couldn’t be a worse outcome for this franchise. Sam at best is looking to be at that type of ceiling over the 7 games we have watched.
 

It’s looking like EB won’t be sticking around at this point. So we’d be looking at 3 systems in 3 years. The odds of Sam even reaching to even that mid level is low given the circumstances to begin with. Let alone what he’s shown. Almost no QB can overcome that. And fans want to sign up for it? I just don’t get it 

4 hours ago, Fan since a Fetus said:

Curious, what elite traits are missing? Or what are the elite traits to you?

He doesn’t have a great arm. He’s not big. He’s not fast. He’s not agile. Hes a decent athlete in small body with a good but not great arm. There’s nothing from a physical standpoint that he can hang his hat on that can drag him to an elite status. 
 

He has to go the burrow route to be great and at least right now he struggles mightily with his pocket presence. Not an easy thing to fix. It’s a usual “it is what it is” aspect to people’s game. He also doesn’t have Burrows ball placement. 

[DJHJR86]

I am in agreement that I think right now he's probably in the middle of the pack in terms of starters...which is good considering that was his 7th career start.  But some of those throws in the second half were awful.  Offense sputtered in the second half.  The Falcons matched their yearly totals in sacks.  At some point it's not all on the offensive line.  

[MartinC]

5 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

I am in agreement that I think right now he's probably in the middle of the pack in terms of starters...which is good considering that was his 7th career start.  But some of those throws in the second half were awful.  Offense sputtered in the second half.  The Falcons matched their yearly totals in sacks.  At some point it's not all on the offensive line.  

He only attempted 7 passes the second half. And a couple of those were throw aways.

[Warhead36]

Idk where hell end up among the pantheon of QBs across the league but I will say there are problems bigger than him on this ballclub.

[MartinC]

22 minutes ago, Stihl89 said:

I can’t believe you’re using MPH speed. It’s one of the most notoriously misrepresented measurements in football. Kirk for instance has a higher mph than Sam. There’s almost zero correlation between success and this stat. Nor ability to drive the ball. 
 

Also your stat is wrong. Willis had the highest mph of the class and it wasn’t particularly close either. Also don’t know why you’re comparing to the rest of maybe the worst QB class in the last 15 years. If you look at Sam’s across any number of drafts he’s exceedingly average in this measurement. 

You are right he was second to Willis. But it was close. And his speed would have him towards the top of any class.

 

https://www.ourlads.com/story/default/Quarterback-Ball-Velocity-at-NFL-Combine-2008-2017/10243/dh/

 

Not saying it’s a stat that correlates with success - I think arm strength overall is an overrated factor for a QB as long as you have an NFL level baseline. I still consider Joe Montana the best QB I’ve seen play and he had a very average arm, wasn’t all that big, or fast. He wasn’t a first round pick either. Actually you’d probably have cut him …
 

But you were talking about Howell lacking any elite traits and I would say his arm is up there - he’s not a John Elway or Bret Favre , but he can drive it in.

[srtman04]

I can't believe some of you are complaining about Sam's arm.  He has the ability to make every single NFL level throw....that's all you need.   

[kingdaddy]

14 minutes ago, srtman04 said:

I can't believe some of you are complaining about Sam's arm.  He has the ability to make every single NFL level throw....that's all you need.   

And he's shown to be pretty accurate too. A quick look at the league stats has Sam 10th in the league in completion % and 13th in overall QB rating.

By comparison, Jalen Hurts is 15th in completion % and 20th in QBR.....

Sam is more than holding his own in other passing categories too....clearly he's got the skills, just needs more support around him and more game experience.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 hour ago, Stihl89 said:

Personally I think this fan base such a bad case of Hopium regarding to the QB position given the past we have had here. So any QB that has shown any sort of flash is put on a pedestal.

Perhaps with the the average 980 caller fan.

 

I don’t think the more knowledgable and realistic fans are like that at all.  We look at it holistically, and see an inexperienced QB in a new offense with a poor line and receivers not creating enough separation.  There isn’t a lot of damning tape on Sam, even with all the sacks that you’ve arbitrarily assigned him 80% at fault for.  This OL isn’t just bad at pass protection, they are bad in general - hence the putrid YPC.  So add zero threat of the run to all the other issues.

 

All that considered, I don’t see how you can be so laser focused on replacing him with the ever elusive ‘elite’ talent.  Particularly considering the position we will find ourselves in trying to obtain one.

Edited October 16, 2023 by BatteredFanSyndrome

[Daniel.redskins]

32 minutes ago, srtman04 said:

I can't believe some of you are complaining about Sam's arm.  He has the ability to make every single NFL level throw....that's all you need.   

I can't believe fans are complaining in general about Howell.  I mean seriously, what more do you want from a kid after his 7th start?  He's top 10 in passing yards and touchdowns.  You could make a case that he's playing better than every young QB in the league.  Do people expect him to look like Mahomes after 7 starts?  I'm really curious to understand.....

[PeterMP]

39 minutes ago, Stihl89 said:

I can’t believe you’re using MPH speed. It’s one of the most notoriously misrepresented measurements in football. Kirk for instance has a higher mph than Sam. There’s almost zero correlation between success and this stat. Nor ability to drive the ball.

 

Almost 0?  It is low, but it is one of the most useful numbers to come out of the combine for QBs.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/college-football/news/article-numbers-nfl-draft-analytics-qb

 

He's also above average for the combine.  Long term average is just over 53.  He's really in like the top 70%.

 

(I will point out that the elite QBs don't generally throw.  In terms of correlation, I suspect that pulls the correlation down.  For example, Mahomes didn't throw at the combine but reportedly through 62 MPH at a pro day.  You're missing data from the top group.  If you say the top QBs don't normally throw at the combine and those QBs tend to be most successful (there is absolutely a correlation between were you are drafted and NFL success for QBs), then you're missing some key data.

 

That also then pushes Sam down the list further because the combine data is missing Mahomes 62.)

 

But I do think him being elite is unlikely.

[Stihl89]

Just now, Daniel.redskins said:

I can't believe fans are complaining in general about Howell.  I mean seriously, what more do you want from a kid after his 7th start?  He's top 10 in passing yards and touchdowns.  You could make a case that he's playing better than every young QB in the league.  Do people expect him to look like Mahomes after 7 starts?  I'm really curious to understand.....

Stats are easily inflatable. 

[justice98]

I think an underrated aspect is not just that Howell is a young QB doing young QB things, but he's a young QB in a brand new offense. So this isn't Howell in the 2nd year of Scott Turner's offense. This is Howell having to forget all that and re-learn how to run EBs offense.

 

And maybe there's similar basic concepts to some degree, EB isn't re-inventing the wheel of offense, but things do need to be second nature to maximize what you're trying to do.  He's probably out there still thinking a lot, which exacerbates his natural tendency to hold it, and results in indecision and being slow to process. 

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, DJHJR86 said:

I am in agreement that I think right now he's probably in the middle of the pack in terms of starters...which is good considering that was his 7th career start.  But some of those throws in the second half were awful.  Offense sputtered in the second half.  The Falcons matched their yearly totals in sacks.  At some point it's not all on the offensive line.  

Some of his throws in the second half were awful? Which ones?

 

He had two throwaways as far as I know. One bounced off McLaurin’s heel.

 

He missed McLaurin on the sideline. Tough throw, though.

 

My takeaway from the great Howell debates of 2023:

 

1) This fanbase has to **** about the QB at all times.

 

2) He must be doing something right because a good portion of the fanbase thinks he’s Aaron Rodgers with the things they ding him for. (No, that doesn’t mean he doesn’t make mistakes. He has and does.)

Edited October 16, 2023 by KDawg

[D’Pablo]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

You are right he was second to Willis. But it was close. And his speed would have him towards the top of any class.

 

https://www.ourlads.com/story/default/Quarterback-Ball-Velocity-at-NFL-Combine-2008-2017/10243/dh/

 

Not saying it’s a stat that correlates with success - I think arm strength overall is an overrated factor for a QB as long as you have an NFL level baseline. I still consider Joe Montana the best QB I’ve seen play and he had a very average arm, wasn’t all that big, or fast. He wasn’t a first round pick either. Actually you’d probably have cut him …
 

But you were talking about Howell lacking any elite traits and I would say his arm is up there - he’s not a John Elway or Bret Favre , but he can drive it in.

Ourlads was calculating averages during throwing drills, which doesn't really reflect the strength of a QB's arm. After all, a lot of throws need touch. However, the combine did have a "hardest throw" drill with the QB just throwing the ball as hard as possible with no receiver on the other end- Howell topped everyone at 59mph.

[srtman04]

1 hour ago, kingdaddy said:

And he's shown to be pretty accurate too. A quick look at the league stats has Sam 10th in the league in completion % and 13th in overall QB rating.

By comparison, Jalen Hurts is 15th in completion % and 20th in QBR.....

Sam is more than holding his own in other passing categories too....clearly he's got the skills, just needs more support around him and more game experience.

 

Exactly,  this is more than we can hope for at this point.   He's definitely the best QB we've had since RG3/Kirk Cousins.  I think one day he'll figure out the sack issue.....just not during Ron's tenure.    

 

[Daniel.redskins]

1 hour ago, Stihl89 said:

Stats are easily inflatable. 

You keep saying that, but without metrics you have no case except you subjectively don't like him. Everything including height, weight, arm strength is a metric. 

 

Arm strength? He's in the top 15. Period. Don't need more. 

Height? I would argue that Brees and Wilson had great careers. 

Speed? Right now he has top 10 QB rushing stats, and I wish we ran him more.  

Sacks? This is the one I will agree with the opposition. This will be his make or break stat. Young kid though, has time to figure it out. 

[skinzplay]

I remain impressed with Howell, all things considered. When the leadership problems are ironed out, I think this kid is gonna show that he's very special.