Welcome to Washington Jamin Davis LB Kentucky

[Going Commando]

3 hours ago, GhostofAlvinWalton said:

If even only one other team is willing to take a player around the same pick that they are drafted...it is not a reach...no matter what tv, internet, extremeskins armchair draft gurus say.  

 

It's a reach if you pick a guy over different prospects who were ranked higher and end up being better.

[Panninho]

8 hours ago, KDawg said:

The reach thing is really only important on draft night as a talking point.

 

Post draft it becomes apparent what was and wasn’t a reach and what was and wasn’t a steal.

 

Otherwise the use of both those words is just used to conjure conversation. I do it, too, for the record. 
 

But will anyone look at Jamin Davis as a reach if he plays well this season? What about Alijah Vera-Tucker? What about if Leatherwood plays like a top 2-3 tackle in this class? 
 

Those are just buzzwords at this point based on projections.

 

While the reach or steal label holds little meaning for the individual prospect, there is more nuance to it than it just being a buzzword.

 

"The following chart shows the results for the 2014 to 2019 NFL drafts. So, how well do draft picks pan out, based on whether they are steals and reaches?We start with the right-hand side and discuss reaches. It turns out that players who were supposed to be reaches indeed underperformed their expectations based on their draft selection, justifying the label that they received at draft time. However, some supposed reaches also overperformed their expectation based on their big board rank, meaning the so-called reach wasn’t as stark as we might think.

This is pretty much the expected result: A player's true value turns out to be somewhere between what the draft position and big board ranks would imply.

 

If we consider the steals, we find another result: It turns out that steals actually perform just as expected based on their draft position, and this implies that the big board rank overvalued these players, as illustrated by the purple curve.

 

Why is that so? It follows the idea of the Wisdom of the Crowd very closely. When a player is a steal, it means that several teams — maybe even all 32 teams — passed on him. And when a lot of teams indirectly leak the information that they don’t like a player at the spot of his big board rank, this gives us a lot of information coming from the consensus of hundreds of team employees.

On the other hand, when a team reaches for a player, it only tells us that one single team liked this player much more than the big board. We don’t get any information about what the other teams thought about him, and that’s the whole point. One single data point isn’t worth as much as information from a lot of teams, and that’s why our finding makes sense intuitively.

 

When looking back at the draft, it’s almost important to have some humility when it comes to your own player evaluation compared to what the NFL teams did. Reaches are probably not as catastrophic as they look, even though the public is often correct on these. This doesn’t mean that Alex Leatherwoods will be a bust, but it means that we are mostly right to question the Las Vegas Raiders’ process.

Conversely, we probably have to be much more cautious when talking about steals, as the NFL draft has often been proven correct by passing on these players."

 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-investigating-the-steals-and-reaches-in-the-2021-nfl-draft

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 8, 2021 by Panninho

[Going Commando]

Jamin can be a reach and also be a successful draft pick.  You can still make a good pick while not making the best pick because we're building a team and opportunity cost is the secondary factor in the equation.

 

We don't need to lie to ourselves about him being a reach.  He likely was.  The guy had second round film and that's where he would have been picked until he ran and jumped his way into the first at his Pro Day.  But that didn't change the fact he has minimal snaps and still demonstrated basic instinct and diagnosis issues at the end of the season that suggest he needs to play in a simplified chase and hit role as a WILL and that he'll struggle if asked to play MIKE next year.  And there were higher ranked prospects than him on the board who will likely end up being better than him.  But the first priority of a draft pick is to get a hit, and since the draft is about team building and you get multiple picks, you can make up value on reaches with luck at your other picks.  Looks like did that with our day two picks this year.

[Malapropismic Depository]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

It's a reach if you pick a guy over different prospects who were ranked higher and end up being better.

 

By that definition, it's impossible for anyone to call any player whatsoever, as a reach, when it's within days, or weeks, or even months, after they were drafted.

[Going Commando]

5 hours ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

By that definition, it's impossible for anyone to call any player whatsoever, as a reach, when it's within days, or weeks, or even months, after they were drafted.

 

This whole business is speculative, I think it's understood that speculation is baked into every discussion about prospects.  When you call someone a reach now, it should be clear that what you mean is you think other players taken after than him are better and thus will end up being better NFL players.

[CommDownMan]

On 5/1/2021 at 12:27 AM, 86 Snyder said:

 

This is a fantastic post.  Holy crap I didn't realize how bad the LBs were at times last year!

 

I hated the result, but this is a great visual of the why.

[CommDownMan]

On 5/1/2021 at 9:02 AM, KDawg said:

Dear everyone who says that video makes it hit home about how bad we needed a linebacker,

 

I am sorry I have failed you. I thought my constant whining about our backers brought it home. But it didn’t. I owe you all an apology.

 

Pictures are worth 1000 words and videos are like a **** slap to the forehead.  You just need more weapons.

[RandyHolt]

Reach is a draft day expression to me. Nothing more nothing less.  "Starters" on D are hard to project for they focus on the base D, which is a relic of the past. With that out of the way, I can't wait till we be Jamin.

 

LBs were heavily targeted (successfully) by OCs last year as their collective low PFF grades can attest (something I heard on XM Fantasy).  Expectations must be kept realistic as does grading. Its easy to say our LBs sucked last year but many teams did.

Edited May 8, 2021 by RandyHolt

[Going Commando]

I read Bullock's take on Jamin and I think he was glossing over the issues in his game.  Saying things like "he has the most upside in coverage" is a positive spin of how he looks lost in coverage right now, for instance.

 

I was a modest fan and fairly early proponent of Jamin in the draft thread, and specifically argued for taking an athletic project like him (on day 2) over a finished product who I didn't really like such as Jabril Cox or Pete Werner.  But round one was a steep price to pay for a project stack linebacker like Jamin.  And I feel like the issues in his game are getting ignored and people are taking his success for granted and aren't setting their expectations properly for him.  I'm not looking forward to him getting killed in the game threads just because people don't know how raw he is. For instance, that gap to gap work he does that is so impressive when he reads it right and gets downhill is not a consistent part of his game.  What guys like Bullocks aren't conveying is that stuff is only working like half the time for Jamin, or when he gets locked in for short stretches.  The other half of the time he's reading it slow and getting reached and cut off.

 

There is a lot of special in Jamin's game: his motor, the short area quickness that lets him sidestep blocks or work gap to gap, the length and heavy hands for taking on blocks, the blazing fast sideline to sideline speed, the tenacious tackling in the open field.  But Jamin's run instincts and diagnostic skills are mediocre at this point, which limits him at MIKE.  Often he doesn't play as fast as his timed speed, and he's not much of a striker and still has to wrestle ball carriers down.  On top of that, his coverage is a big potential issue.  He has very poor feel for identifying route concepts and it means he spends most of his time in zones covering grass and balls get completed in front of and behind him routinely, plus he has almost no experience in man.  That part of the game will only get harder for him in the NFL.

 

I think the coaching staff is going to protect Jamin and bring him along slower than expected.  They aren't going to play him at MIKE unless injuries force their hand. I think they are going to keep it simple for him and have him mainly just blitz and play chase and hit from weakside alignments and hope the DTs can keep him nice and clean so he can play as fast as possible.  Even still it might take him a year or two to get up to speed and truly get good, if it happens at all.  The list of super athletic stack LBs who disappointed in the NFL because of their mediocre instincts is quite long, so we can't truly take his eventual success for granted.

[Going Commando]

40 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

Reach is a draft day expression to me. Nothing more nothing less.

 

It's a way of identifying inefficiency in your team building process, and that effort should go beyond draft day.  It's how you determine if the opportunity cost paid by using your resources to pick lesser players when better ones were available is a problem.  Reaches here and there usually aren't going to limit your competitiveness, but they will if you do it bad enough and often enough over a period of time.  It's a problem for New England and Oakland and Dallas that they've been reaching like Hell in the draft the past few years.  They got passed in their divisions by teams getting more draft value.  It has a cumulative effect over time, but it can also rob you of high quality leadership too, which has a more dramatic effect if you don't already have super good players leading your team.

[Bifflog]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

It's how you determine if the opportunity cost paid by using your resources to pick lesser players when better ones were available is a problem. 

 

So what's the gospel on who the better player objectively is?  If everyone already knows, then I would assume everyone's board is the same?  That clearly isn't the case between draft analysts, and those are just the ones we can see.

[Anselmheifer]

I hear you McQueen. I also liked but didn’t love Jamin on film. 
 

I feel better about this pick because of Ron and company’s history of hitting on 1st round linebackers. JDR also seemed really genuinely excited about him and said that on his hoard as well, Jamin was rated extremely high, with the only defenders rated over him being Horn and Surtain. And Jamin is stepping into a perfect situation in terms of being surrounded by talent and leadership. 
 

Also, you said he doesn’t have the instincts for MIKE yet. JDR said he’s playing outside for now, so that won’t be an issue. 

[DWinzit]

On 5/1/2021 at 9:02 AM, KDawg said:

Dear everyone who says that video makes it hit home about how bad we needed a linebacker,

 

I am sorry I have failed you. I thought my constant whining about our backers brought it home. But it didn’t. I owe you all an apology.

Haha, one of my favorite recent posts!

You sure as hell didn't fail, you appropriately pushed the **** out of this topic! Fingers crossed Jamin and the additions made this year make a huge difference. I could see a LB still added if the right one becomes available.

 

[PartyPosse]

I'm convinced 75% of first rounders who bust could have had better careers on better organizations, it just sometimes is the wrong fit, scheme, coaching etc. 

 

Haskins, for example, probably could have thrived on an organization that wanted him and took the time to develop him instead of the Washa Footy Cappa frat house mentality that was rampant. 

[Silvernon]

I love the potential of Davis' length and athleticism to cover TEs. A slightly longer and more athletic version of Marcus Washington.

 

We've seen what a dynamic SLB in a 43 defense can do even if it didn't last long. And the thought of having a strong side of Sweat and Davis is pretty exciting.

 

He and Curl will allow the team to use Collins as a defacto WLB because they will be in coverage.

[757SeanTaylor21]

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

It's a way of identifying inefficiency in your team building process, and that effort should go beyond draft day.  It's how you determine if the opportunity cost paid by using your resources to pick lesser players when better ones were available is a problem.  Reaches here and there usually aren't going to limit your competitiveness, but they will if you do it bad enough and often enough over a period of time.  It's a problem for New England and Oakland and Dallas that they've been reaching like Hell in the draft the past few years.  They got passed in their divisions by teams getting more draft value.  It has a cumulative effect over time, but it can also rob you of high quality leadership too, which has a more dramatic effect if you don't already have super good players leading your team.

I will have to disagree on this theory because you never really know how that player translates. What makes a player technically better? Is it...physical ability? Mental ability? Intangibles? There's numerous players with great physical skills that don't have the mental abilities and Intangibles. There's also players with great mental abilities and intangibles that lack the physical abilities. And some that are stuck in the middle.. There usually is very few players that immediately come out that have that. So you end up taking some of one and some of the other. For example. Troy apke...what is preventing him from being a great player? Or haskins? What allowed chase young to thrive? Why did Patrick mahomes drop over trubisky..and lamar.. and watson. Each team sees players differently. This isn't madden drafting that got overalls THIS IS the best player. 

[Going Commando]

4 hours ago, Bifflog said:

 

So what's the gospel on who the better player objectively is?  If everyone already knows, then I would assume everyone's board is the same?  That clearly isn't the case between draft analysts, and those are just the ones we can see.

 

49 minutes ago, 757SeanTaylor21 said:

I will have to disagree on this theory because you never really know how that player translates. What makes a player technically better? Is it...physical ability? Mental ability? Intangibles? There's numerous players with great physical skills that don't have the mental abilities and Intangibles. There's also players with great mental abilities and intangibles that lack the physical abilities. And some that are stuck in the middle.. There usually is very few players that immediately come out that have that. So you end up taking some of one and some of the other. For example. Troy apke...what is preventing him from being a great player? Or haskins? What allowed chase young to thrive? Why did Patrick mahomes drop over trubisky..and lamar.. and watson. Each team sees players differently. This isn't madden drafting that got overalls THIS IS the best player. 

 

Are you guys really questioning whether it's possible to know if some players are better than others?

 

This stuff isn't impossibly subjective or relativistic.  It's football.

 

Also bifflog, teams value traits and types differently and some evaluators are better than others.  Evaluation and projection of prospects is difficult and leads to a wide divergence in conclusions.

[Bifflog]

1 minute ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Also bifflog, teams value traits and types differently and some evaluators are better than others.  Evaluation and projection of prospects is difficult and leads to a wide divergence in conclusions.

 

Could said divergence be, say, 1 round wide?

 

If so, you might be able to ascertain why just because one evaluator finds this pick in question a reach, another might not.

 

Unless I am misunderstanding this, and the contention is Ron and co. know Davis wouldn't be the best player going forward (or within reason, top 5-6 players if accounting for need) but took him anyways, just because they felt like it.

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

He’s started 11 games in his career. Jamin is raw. He’s far from a finished product by any means. He’s got tons of upside. Ron and JDR will work him into the scheme the right way. Just give the guy time. I’m totally not concerned with what anyone calls him today, give him time and I think it will become clear he’s got the skills to be a great LB.

Ron and JDR know what they are doing. 

[RWJ]

10 minutes ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

He’s started 11 games in his career. Jamin is raw. He’s far from a finished product by any means. He’s got tons of upside. Ron and JDR will work him into the scheme the right way. Just give the guy time. I’m totally not concerned with what anyone calls him today, give him time and I think it will become clear he’s got the skills to be a great LB.

Ron and JDR know what they are doing. 

Yep, CBK especially when they played the position all their Pro careers.  They may know a thing or two.  LOL

[mistertim]

I've seen people referencing Davis as a 4-3 Sam but to me he seems more like a Will. Sam is usually a bigger stack and shed guy who takes on blocks and sets the edge in the run game and/or is a good pass rusher. Neither of those things really seem to be Jamin's forte. Will is usually the smaller and more athletic guy who operates in space. 

Edited May 8, 2021 by mistertim

[evmiii]

Evaluating and labeling draftees before they have played down in the nfl seems like a sincere waste of time and energy.  Davis is almost assuredly a starting linebacker on a pretty good defense so how could he possibly be “a reach”.  Let’s grade our draft after the season and we’ll have a much better idea of how we did.  Heck, people on this very board are already talking about an undrafted free agent being the next Barry Sanders.  Time will tell, but on paper I’m very satisfied with our draft and off-season thus far.

[wit33]

Freedom in his hips and speed is special. Everything else can be taught. 

[KillBill26]

3 hours ago, evmiii said:

Evaluating and labeling draftees before they have played down in the nfl seems like a sincere waste of time and energy.  

Soooo should I cancel the order of the gold jacket for jamin?

3 hours ago, evmiii said:

  Heck, people on this very board are already talking about an undrafted free agent being the next Barry Sanders.  

I agree, comparison to Barry isn't fair.  Patterson is going to be way better than that.

[Dark Acre]

Who do you want developing Davis for the next 2 years, the Kentucky defensive coordinator or Jack Del Rio?