2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

I just watched two games of Howell (vs ND 2021 and vs FSU 2021) and there were a few takeaways from those particular games. 

 

First the ND game: On youtube as Sam Howell (North Carolina QB) vs Notre Dame 2021

 

1. Howell is not an NFL runner.  He won't be doing any designed running plays minus a "keep the DEF honest" or goal line keeper here and there.

 

2. He did have good movement as a scrambler when people weren't open or the play broke down. Reminded me of how Rodgers will pick up 5-15 yards on a play instead of having to chuck it out of bounds.

 

3. The NC offense didn't seem much different from what Washington runs with little Turner.

 

4. Seemed to lock on one receiver a little too much but most college QBs do that.

 

5. Not very many good views of it but he appeared to throw with some anticipation a few times. Nice to see.

 

6. Arm strength isn't an issue but not strong enough to be throwing off platform regularly. 

 

7. Ball placement on short/intermediate passes was just ok.

 

The FSU game: On youtube as Sam Howell (North Carolina QB) vs Florida State 2021

 

1. Still not an NFL designed run runner.

 

2. He did a really good job escaping the pocket and getting yards with his feet.

 

3. Did a much better job looking off the defenders.

 

4. Threw a nice long out pattern with anticipation. 

 

5. Ball placement on short/intermediate passes was pretty good.

 

6. A couple of drops hurt him but his deep ball accuracy wasn't overly impressive.  

 

 

In both games he hit the uncovered guys in stride and had big runs that would never happen in the NFL (piss poor tackling).

 

I'd be interested if anyone else sees the same thing or not from those games. @KDawg @Skinsinparadise @RWJ etc.

 

 

Edited February 10, 2022 by GhostofAlvinWalton

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 hours ago, DWinzit said:

Ridders accuracy issues have been almost infuriating this year. They really didn't seem to improve much from last year, I expected enhanced accuracy.  That said, I didn't think he looked too bad n the Senior Bowl. He did himself some good all in all

 

Supposedly his draft stock stayed flat or slightly improved from the Senior Bowl.  Looked like he didn't belong Day 1, then did well enough Day 2 and 3.

 

From watching cutups, it looks like Ridder isn't warmed up when games start, the ball is all over the place, then he starts getting a rhythm as the game goes on and is throwing more catchable balls.  Still has some miscues, and he needs to work on either fixing his back foot throws or where he places his throws while on his back foot.  Some plays he felt pressure coming, then sank back and released when he couldn't step into it, and those were often not catchable.

 

I need to watch more of him, but he might be a better prospect than I originally gave him credit for.  His supporting cast is just ok.  Quality of players is all over the place.  Some of the OL look fine, others are turnstyles.  The RB is supposed to be good.  They've got one good college WR, then everyone else is like 5'9-180.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

I was watching this highlight video of Treylon Burks and was shocked at how fast he looks:

 

He is just dusting people and has an elite top gear that he can hit on open field runs to pull away from defenders.

 

I don't think he did that reliably.  He's a Terrell Owens/Demaryius Thomas type of receiver normally.  Huge, built, athletic, great with YAC and surprising stiff arms.  Looks like he'll do a lot of his damage on short/intermediate crossers or sideline stuff that he can get YAC on.

 

If he's as fast as the speed you mention indicates, then that's a pleasant surprise and opens more of his game.  I do wonder why we don't see him do that more often though.  Too often CB's don't look that uncomfortable backpedaling and staying with him.

 

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

So I got curious and went looking for info about his speed and found that he was clocked at 22.6 MPH in week three.  That's the speed DK Metcalf hit on that famous when he chased down Buddha Baker to stop the pick six.  Holy **** this kid can fly.  He's not body beautiful like DK Metcalf, but he's the DK Metcalf of this group in terms of size, strength, and speed.

 

Wow.  Did not realize that.

 

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

This is the fastest first to early second round crop of WRs I can remember.  I see at least five prospects with a real chance to run 4.3 (or better): Williams and Metchie, Olave, Burks, and Dotson.  We've talked a lot about the lack of consensus on the QB rankings, but I don't think there is anything remotely like a consensus on the WRs, and any notion that Garrett Wilson is WR1 is going to get blown up by the combine when Burks comes in and runs a low 4.3.

 

I honestly think Wilson needs to run low 4.4s to get picked in the first round.  Otherwise he has no strong argument at getting picked over guys who are bigger, faster, and were more productive in college.  I'm actually kind of excited about this because he's my favorite WR prospect and I want him to be in range of our pick at 42.

 

I want to somehow come away with a QB/WR with the first two picks of this draft.  The better the WR class winds up being, the better the odds of our QB having an easier development time with a quality WR group.

 

I know we've got holes elsewhere that would be filled nicely by several of these defenders, RB's, or OL.  But for 2022 to have any success, the next QB needs some extra help in the weapons he's throwing at.

[VirginiaVibes]

I feel like we need to look at this crop of QBs differently and think about best fit for this team and where the team is right now. 

 

Kenny Pickett is the most pro ready because of the system he played in but his ceiling seems lower. Really there is no clear cut QB1 like Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow, everyone has pros and cons and their play on the field hasn't really seperated them too much - so what about off the field? What sets them apart?

 

The new rebrand is going to take some getting used to - new name, new uniforms, etc and what really would help is a young, magnetic personality that fans can really rally around. I don't think Sam Howell is that guy. Apparently he is very shy, soft spoken, didn't impress much in Senior Bowl interviews. For a rebrand you want a guy that fans will be passionate about, not meh on (and frankly fans are more forgiving and patient with rookie mistakes if they really like the rookie as a person) - someone who will stand on the sidelines and get people fired up. I haven't see much of that from Carson Strong either honestly. 

 

The guy who makes the most sense to me is Matt Corral. He already has three things in common with Rivera which would instantly bond them - he's a Latino guy from a military family raised in California just like Ron. That might not seem important but that is such an easy starting point for a coach and QB to start connecting and building trust. Corral's tough. He apparently has a really magnetic personality where his teammates not only love him but would run through a wall for him. I saw countless games where he was leading the Ole Miss chant or standing on the bench to get the fans fired up. 

 

 

Todd McShay recently compared him to Joe Theismann. He does run an RPO but has everything Ron said he wanted - mobility, quick twitch, strong arm and his work ethic is insane. He was holding QB meetings and training everyday at 5 am. 3 hours before their regular practices even started:

https://www.si.com/college/olemiss/football/5-a-m-meetings-matt-corral-ole-miss-quarterbacks-taking-work-ethic-to-the-next-level

 

I don't know I just think he is the perfect fit for this team right now. He would fit really well with Scott Turner's offense because he has accuracy at the intermediate level and is so elusive along with the arm talent to make some Mahomes like throws from different angles and honestly elite ability to manipulate his body. 

 

Edited February 10, 2022 by VirginiaVibes

[KDawg]

10 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

KDawgs gonna be unbearable after he watches this.   

 

You guys think I’m some shill for this dude, but I admit he’s no Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, etc.

 

Just the rampant misinformation in regards to the guy drives me nuts. It’s just regurgitated parroting from other parrots.

 

It’s like the telephone game. 
 

Steve has a take that’s not really pro Howell, but I have absolutely zero issues with where he stands. He’s wrong (  ) but it’s not, “this guy stinks because he regressed even though there’s not a whole lot that shows he regressed other than these dudes who said he regressed”.

 

SIP has been critical at times, too. Cool. He has reasons and his takes are well thought out. 
 

I feel that way about a lot of these dudes. 
 

But yes. That video is good and QB1 should be ours

4 hours ago, GhostofAlvinWalton said:

I just watched two games of Howell (vs ND 2021 and vs FSU 2021) and there were a few takeaways from those particular games. 

 

First the ND game: On youtube as Sam Howell (North Carolina QB) vs Notre Dame 2021

 

1. Howell is not an NFL runner.  He won't be doing any designed running plays minus a "keep the DEF honest" or goal line keeper here and there.

 

2. He did have good movement as a scrambler when people weren't open or the play broke down. Reminded me of how Rodgers will pick up 5-15 yards on a play instead of having to chuck it out of bounds.

 

3. The NC offense didn't seem much different from what Washington runs with little Turner.

 

4. Seemed to lock on one receiver a little too much but most college QBs do that.

 

5. Not very many good views of it but he appeared to throw with some anticipation a few times. Nice to see.

 

6. Arm strength isn't an issue but not strong enough to be throwing off platform regularly. 

 

7. Ball placement on short/intermediate passes was just ok.

 

The FSU game: On youtube as Sam Howell (North Carolina QB) vs Florida State 2021

 

1. Still not an NFL designed run runner.

 

2. He did a really good job escaping the pocket and getting yards with his feet.

 

3. Did a much better job looking off the defenders.

 

4. Threw a nice long out pattern with anticipation. 

 

5. Ball placement on short/intermediate passes was pretty good.

 

6. A couple of drops hurt him but his deep ball accuracy wasn't overly impressive.  

 

 

In both games he hit the uncovered guys in stride and had big runs that would never happen in the NFL (piss poor tackling).

 

I'd be interested if anyone else sees the same thing or not from those games. @KDawg @Skinsinparadise @RWJ etc.

 

 

Agree with a lot of this, actually. I think he’s better in short intermediate than you do. I agree he’s not a NFL runner (few are) and that he can keep a D honest and use his legs to convert third downs on broken plays. But designing plays for the guy to run would be… an interesting utilization. Not far off from my takes. Thanks for developing a well informed opinion.

[Going Commando]

This is a fun highlight video for Kyle Hamilton:

 

 

God damn is he big and fast.  He looks bigger than Devin Lloyd and waaaaaay bigger than Nakobe Dean.  Reputedly one of the smartest players in the class too, certainly way smarter than the dummies we have on our team.

 

I haven't been a big cheerleader for the safety position given its relatively low value, but this kid is a once in a blue moon safety prospect.  A surefire future All Pro health provided, and someone who could be the best player on our team by his second year.

 

I'm torn.  I absolutely love Lloyd, and he is a great fit for our team.  But I think I'd have to put Hamilton above him on the board, and if both are there, you take Hamilton as the BPA.  Then you look for a Nakobe Dean in the second (He's sub 6', he's not going in the first round).

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

This is a fun highlight video for Kyle Hamilton:

 

 

God damn is he big and fast.  He looks bigger than Devin Lloyd and waaaaaay bigger than Nakobe Dean.  Reputedly one of the smartest players in the class too, certainly way smarter than the dummies we have on our team.

 

I haven't been a big cheerleader for the safety position given its relatively low value, but this kid is a once in a blue moon safety prospect.  A surefire future All Pro health provided, and someone who could be the best player on our team by his second year.

 

I'm torn.  I absolutely love Lloyd, and he is a great fit for our team.  But I think I'd have to put Hamilton above him on the board, and if both are there, you take Hamilton as the BPA.  Then you look for a Nakobe Dean in the second (He's sub 6', he's not going in the first round).

If we don’t go QB and Hamilton is there you take him. 
 

Also spoiler: he’s not going to be there

[mhd24]

34 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

This is a fun highlight video for Kyle Hamilton:

 

 

God damn is he big and fast.  He looks bigger than Devin Lloyd and waaaaaay bigger than Nakobe Dean.  Reputedly one of the smartest players in the class too, certainly way smarter than the dummies we have on our team.

 

I haven't been a big cheerleader for the safety position given its relatively low value, but this kid is a once in a blue moon safety prospect.  A surefire future All Pro health provided, and someone who could be the best player on our team by his second year.

 

I'm torn.  I absolutely love Lloyd, and he is a great fit for our team.  But I think I'd have to put Hamilton above him on the board, and if both are there, you take Hamilton as the BPA.  Then you look for a Nakobe Dean in the second (He's sub 6', he's not going in the first round).

 

 

I don't think there is any way he's there at 11.  In a class where many of the top prospects have warts, this guy is the cleanest player in the draft.  He could go as high as 3 to Houston.

[DWinzit]

4 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Supposedly his draft stock stayed flat or slightly improved from the Senior Bowl.  Looked like he didn't belong Day 1, then did well enough Day 2 and 3.

 

From watching cutups, it looks like Ridder isn't warmed up when games start, the ball is all over the place, then he starts getting a rhythm as the game goes on and is throwing more catchable balls.  Still has some miscues, and he needs to work on either fixing his back foot throws or where he places his throws while on his back foot.  Some plays he felt pressure coming, then sank back and released when he couldn't step into it, and those were often not catchable.

 

I need to watch more of him, but he might be a better prospect than I originally gave him credit for.  His supporting cast is just ok.  Quality of players is all over the place.  Some of the OL look fine, others are turnstyles.  The RB is supposed to be good.  They've got one good college WR, then everyone else is like 5'9-180.

I think he will go between 25-40. He has had inconsistencies and inaccuracies in his game. It is possible he wasn't warmed but he can be streaky. He had really good leadership qualities, speed, arm strength, size and great all around athleticism. 

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

If we don’t go QB and Hamilton is there you take him. 
 

Also spoiler: he’s not going to be there

 

28 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

 

I don't think there is any way he's there at 11.  In a class where many of the top prospects have warts, this guy is the cleanest player in the draft.  He could go as high as 3 to Houston.

I think the absolute latest he would go is 10 to the Jests 2nd pick. They might pick him at #4 even. Of course I never thought OJ Howard would make it to our pick either…but this seems different. 

[Barry.Randolphe]

My hope is there is a stupid panic run on QBs so he drops to us  

[Anselmheifer]

19 minutes ago, Barry.Randolphe said:

My hope is there is a stupid panic run on QBs so he drops to us  

He’s also hurt right? The Mexicans are what dropped Derwin James way past 11.

 

I’d be thrilled with Hamilton, Lloyd, or Stingley at 11 and a move back up into the 1st for Matt Corral. Especially Hamilton and Corral though. That would probably mean no MLB in the 2nd though. 

[VirginiaVibes]

14 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

He’s also hurt right? The Mexicans are what dropped Derwin James way past 11.

 

I’d be thrilled with Hamilton, Lloyd, or Stingley at 11 and a move back up into the 1st for Matt Corral. Especially Hamilton and Corral though. That would probably mean no MLB in the 2nd though. 

 

If we somehow pulled that off and got a WR in the 3rd that would be AMAZING

Edited February 11, 2022 by VirginiaVibes

[Peregrine]

15 hours ago, KDawg said:

Howell looks poor? According to what? And how did he regress? 
 

Ridder got better every year.

 

Are you basing this stuff on stats? If so: don’t do that. There are layers of context.

 

With Howell, his passing yardage went down as he lost two of his receivers to the NFL and he lost his top two running backs to the NFL. He still managed to help Josh Downs have a 1300 yard receiving season. And he rushed for ~1k to make up for his top two backs absence.

 

If you wanted to say Howell is not high on your list due to how you perceive his pocket presence, the primary RPO UNC offense, you don’t think he’s ugly enough… I may or may not agree but that’s your opinion and we all have some… and we all have correct ones and left field ones. But to claim he regressed without context is actually wrong in anything but statistics. And even there was if you include the rush yards it’s borderline wrong.

 

Howell does have weak points, all QBs every single year do. 

Howell looks very poor to me, hence why I said he looks poor.  His game tape looks very bad, and he does not look like he will translate well to the NFL.  Howell will not be rushing in the NFL with any real success, because like a few former Florida Gator QBs before him, being a bowling ball runner works in college but the guys in the NFL are bigger and faster.

 

"I may or may not agree but that’s your opinion and we all have some"  Im not sure whos opinion you thought I was giving if not my own... I do not think it worth it to go into a very large dissertation on every thought on a QB to make a separate point, if that is what you are looking for thats great, but just not everyone is interested.  On the analytics side, Ill just suggest you try and name a few QBs that regardless of players leaving had such a big drop in production over 2 years and made it in the NFL.  Having looked at this in the past, I know seeing that is pretty much telling you a QB will be a bust, if they werent able to go through the adversity of college(still nothing like the NFL) and improve on their game measurably.

 

As for Ridder, he probably has the most upside of the others, but he really only looked good for his last season with a weak schedule, and doesnt look like an NFL ready QB.  Hes more of a "hope he develops at a faster rate than he has been" type of guy, and while thats true of all NFL prospects(where their work ethic and intangibles will have a big impact on ultimate success), its extra true of him.

[Koolblue13]

I wouldn't blink if Hamilton went first over all. I'd be shocked if he made it to 5.

[Peregrine]

On 2/9/2022 at 9:40 PM, Koolblue13 said:

Willis throws incredibly well.

Howell looks good and didn't regres at all.

Ridder improved every year.

 

But you're right about the hands.

We can revisit in a couple of years.  Id love to believe theres a top QB just sitting there waiting for us but I definitely dont see that and it seems like few of the pundits do either.  Id say Howell is most likely to be a big bust, followed by Willis, though at least in Willis case hes raw and has some potential to just crazy over-develop with a couple years of tough times in the NFL.

[redskinsrmylyfe]

14 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'm a lot higher on Howell than most too. Probably the guy I want the most. If he had Ridders size, he'd be the QB1 in this draft I think.

 

Be kind of funny if we signed Trubisky and drafted him and had 2 Tarheels at QB.

I'm 100% on board with everything you said

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

3 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

The Mexicans are what dropped Derwin James way past 11.

Medicals everybody. He means medicals.

[RemoveSnyder]

6 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

The Mexicans are what dropped Derwin James way past 11.

 

Finally someone brave enough to say it.

[Koolblue13]

8 hours ago, Peregrine said:

We can revisit in a couple of years.  Id love to believe theres a top QB just sitting there waiting for us but I definitely dont see that and it seems like few of the pundits do either.  Id say Howell is most likely to be a big bust, followed by Willis, though at least in Willis case hes raw and has some potential to just crazy over-develop with a couple years of tough times in the NFL.

I dont think you're that off really. I have a feeling Ridder and Strong might be the only two with decent careers, but thats a long shot. 

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

23 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'm a lot higher on Howell than most too. Probably the guy I want the most. If he had Ridders size, he'd be the QB1 in this draft I think.

I am no QB guru by any means but this is similar to what I said about Wilson in 2012. If he was 4 inches taller he would be the #2 pick behind Luck. Guess he didn’t actually need to be taller 🤷‍♀️

[Warhead36]

10 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

I wouldn't blink if Hamilton went first over all. I'd be shocked if he made it to 5.

No chance a Safety goes #1 overall when there are generational pass rushers and a stud LT.

[clskinsfan]

27 minutes ago, GhostofAlvinWalton said:

I am no QB guru by any means but this is similar to what I said about Wilson in 2012. If he was 4 inches taller he would be the #2 pick behind Luck. Guess he didn’t actually need to be taller 🤷‍♀️

Wilson is an elite runner. The two are nowhere near comparable. 

Just now, Warhead36 said:

No chance a Safety goes #1 overall when there are generational pass rushers and a stud LT.

Its a shame that the positional value sucks at safety. Because I think Hamilton is the best player in the draft. 

[Riggo#44]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

No chance a Safety goes #1 overall when there are generational pass rushers and a stud LT.

Just a point I'd like to show here. Can we, as a board, stop using the word "generational?" If every other year there is a generational <insert position here>, then by definition, it is not a generational <insert position here>. (Not a personal shot at Mr. Head36, just using the post as an example.)

[Koolblue13]

8 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

No chance a Safety goes #1 overall when there are generational pass rushers and a stud LT.

Please stop saying generational. 

 

People bash the term in the Chase thread, then apply it to other draftees. 

 

Also, generational would mean 1 in about 10 years and you just implied there are 2 in one draft.