Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[profusion]

2 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Tyrod Taylor was on a 2 year 11mil deal in LAC. Maybe that’s the vet budget. Unless we go all in on someone in free agency or the draft.

 

And that's unfortunately probably the caliber of veteran we're looking at unless they want to fork over a ton of money for Stafford. Assuming they can sign Heinicke, the WFT already have guys who know the system and are a better fit.

 

If they had no one besides a rookie, then yes they'd need Tyrod or Bridgewater or Fitzpatrick or some such.

[Malapropismic Depository]

Heini may not necessarily be a lock, to be starter next season, or long-term.

But at the very least, he makes you feel more comfortable about the position, as not quite such an urgent need.

Which helps us to focus more and apply more effort to addressing other positions.

 

[Thinking Skins]

7 minutes ago, profusion said:

That said, the performance of both Allen and Heinicke shows me that signing or trading for an available vet would just be gobbling up cap space without a clear benefit above bringing those guys back.

This I agree with. Both these guys have shown ability and that they can lead this team and that the players will rally around them. What they have also shown is that they can get injured. I would draft somebody who has mobility and smarts later in the draft to come in and groom like we had with Sudfield. That could be Montez, but I don't think coaches have much faith in him. 

 

I just can't say how happy I am that we gave an UDFA a chance twice and both performed well. Previous coaches (Gruden) signed a guy like Sanchez when this happened. Part of me was afraid that Allen and Heinicke would be like Shane Matthews and Danny Woefull. Glad to see that wasn't the case. 

[rumplestilskin]

Allen, Heineken and Fitzpatrick would be a good bullpen. 

[profusion]

11 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

This I agree with. Both these guys have shown ability and that they can lead this team and that the players will rally around them. What they have also shown is that they can get injured. I would draft somebody who has mobility and smarts later in the draft to come in and groom like we had with Sudfield. That could be Montez, but I don't think coaches have much faith in him. 

 

I think they'll have to draft higher than they did for those guys if they want someone whose potential is greater than Allen or Heinicke. That'll be a tough decision for Rivera, as there are a lot of other needs on the team, not to mention depth, that can be filled with third- or fourth-round picks. It's not just about the starters. You need OL, LB and DB who can rotate in and keep the ship moving.

 

Edit: trading down out of the first round might be a wise move, all things considered.

Edited January 10, 2021 by profusion

[Thinking Skins]

Just now, profusion said:

 

I think they'll have to draft higher than they did for those guys if they want someone whose potential is greater than Allen or Heinicke. That'll be a tough decision for Rivera, as there are a lot of other needs on the team, not to mention depth, that can be filled with third- or fourth-round picks. It's not just about the starters. You need OL, LB and DB who can rotate in and keep the ship moving.

I disagree. One thing about Norv and now  Scott is that they can find these gems. We got Gus in the 7th Trent as an UDFA, and Kyle and Taylor as UDFAs. I'm not necessarily opposed to say a 5th on a QB, but i think they can be found everywhere. Look at Beathard and Mullins, or Fitzpatrick or the guy for the Rams. 

 

I think the key to lower round scouting a QB is not falling in love with stats or measurables but finding these unheard of guys and seeing them in person, talking to them, and seeing what the game means to them. 

[kingdaddy]

15 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

Heini may not necessarily be a lock, to be starter next season, or long-term.

But at the very least, he makes you feel more comfortable about the position, as not quite such an urgent need.

Which helps us to focus more and apply more effort to addressing other positions.

 

Yes, and how do you go back to an immobile Alex Smith when you saw the energy and mobility Heinicke brought to the position last night. Sign Heinicke asap and spend money all around him. He is perfect for what we need...build the defense and get the o-line strong and we can play with anyone. This kid has moxie and we haven't seen that in a long time. Don't let him go.

[profusion]

19 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I disagree. One thing about Norv and now  Scott is that they can find these gems. We got Gus in the 7th Trent as an UDFA, and Kyle and Taylor as UDFAs. I'm not necessarily opposed to say a 5th on a QB, but i think they can be found everywhere. Look at Beathard and Mullins, or Fitzpatrick or the guy for the Rams. 

 

I think the key to lower round scouting a QB is not falling in love with stats or measurables but finding these unheard of guys and seeing them in person, talking to them, and seeing what the game means to them. 

 

I understand, but if they resign Heinicke they'll essentially already have three of that type of guy on the roster. The point to drafting a QB this offseason would be to find someone with higher potential and fewer downsides. I don't see much point in it, personally.

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I disagree. One thing about Norv and now  Scott is that they can find these gems. We got Gus in the 7th Trent as an UDFA, and Kyle and Taylor as UDFAs. I'm not necessarily opposed to say a 5th on a QB, but i think they can be found everywhere. Look at Beathard and Mullins, or Fitzpatrick or the guy for the Rams. 

 

I think the key to lower round scouting a QB is not falling in love with stats or measurables but finding these unheard of guys and seeing them in person, talking to them, and seeing what the game means to them. 

 

I liked what I've seen from Heinicke but the fact that Finlay said his sources with the team have told him they are concerned about his durability adds to my concern.   I'd definitely bring him back but at a minimum I'd hedge my bets.  If I had no concerns about his durability, I'd risk it and ride with him.  But he has a history of struggiling to stay on the field even within a short sample.  

 

All the QBs you mention here though aren't IMO SB caliber QBs with the exception being Trent Green.  I liked Gus as much as the next guy but he's not likely going toe to toe with an Aaron Rodgers in a big game.   Fitpatrick hasn't even led a team to the playoffs in his long career.

 

You seem to love the unheralded QB.  I think that's fine if the goal is 9-7.  But dudes like Nick Mullens are unlikely going to be hoisting Lombardi Trophies.

 

I get the modest goals-expectations.  We are a bottom feeder organization under Dan's reign so even respectable play can feel like a SB.  But I think for the first time I feel we can shoot higher than just being competitive. 

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

So, I guess we have the answer to this thread now. Heinicke is basically a rookie and Allen is a vet, so the answer is Both!

[Skinsinparadise]

Posted this elsewhere.  PFF's take of our roster, ranked 7th out of the 8 playoff teams

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-who-is-the-most-complete-2020-nfl-playoff-team

NO. 7: WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM

Offense

• The offensive line is the only thing saving this offense from being a below-average unit in all four of our categories. Even then, the Football Team’s status as PFF’s No. 3 pass-blocking offensive line is probably more due to Alex Smith’s tendency to get rid of the ball as quick as humanly possible: His average of 2.38 seconds from snap to pass is the eighth-fastest mark among all QBs with at least 200 dropbacks. 
• Only the Jets and Eagles had a worse overall passing offense rank than the Football Team. Their main issue all season has been creating big plays through the air; they join the 2018 Jaguars as the only offenses to post an explosive pass-play rate under 11% over the past three seasons.

Defense

• Only the Rams and Steelers posted a better EPA per pass play than the Football Team; this secondary and pass rush are legit. The latter group in particular is full of monsters, as each of Chase Young (No. 11), Jonathan Allen (No. 18) and Montez Sweat (No. 21) rank highly among 115 full-time interior and edge defenders this season.
• The one issue facing this defense has been their ability to truly shut down opposing rushing attacks; their 12.8% explosive run-play rate against ranks just 27th in 2020. This is made more concerning by the reality that they’ve faced run plays with at least eight defenders in the box at the league’s sixth-highest rate. Most of the Football Team’s success on defense comes from their front-seven’s ability to dominate opposing offensive lines; watch out if they meet an opponent with an o-line good enough to at least make things tougher than usual.

[UKskins]

1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I don’t think getting a new QB prevents those other moves. Draft picks in early.mid rounds of 1,2,3,3,4,5 plus 40-60mil in cap space depending on various factors.
 

We’re in good shape. Too good of shape to go lame at QB.

But when QB costs you your round 1 pick and you're not even getting a top tier guy.... or it costs you 1,2,3, 2022 1,2 to get in the conversation for a top tier guy or you trade for a known quantity and it costs you 1st, 2nd, next year's first and 35mill of that cap space for a decent vet, are you thinking we can fill 2 x starting WR, 2 x CB, 2 x ILB from 3,3,4,5 and 15-25mill? If you pick up some cheap vet like Tyrod Taylor as competition/insurance, then fine, but I would say that's less aggressive than it appears Ron wants to be.
 

I just think going QB this year kills us in terms of team improvement. Use those picks and the cap to stack the roster and then go all in on QB the year after. Throw whatever it takes down to get the guy we want and let them take the top off the team and get us a Lombardi. 

 

Put new WR,CB and ILB on this team and we don't need Dan Marino to make us competitive for the conference. We need someone capable. Heinicke or Kyle Allen could both potentially be that. Signing a cheap vet also could do that.

 

Heinicke might be lightning in a bottle. Kyle Allen is at least serviceable so it's not like we have nothing at QB. Maybe one of them exceeds expectations and balls without getting hurt - then hey, you solved the QB problem for free.

 

I don't care if it's Peyton Manning in his prime under centre, if he is throwing to scrubs like Sims x 2 and Isaiah Wright, we ain't going anywhere. The cost of getting a really good QB this year is a killer for the roster development (without lucking into one or one falling into our laps).

 

I think Ron will go big for a QB this year, and I will reserve judgement until I see how the roster shakes out but that's the path I would be looking at in his position. 

 

 

Edited January 10, 2021 by UKskins

[Malapropismic Depository]

33 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Yes, and how do you go back to an immobile Alex Smith when you saw the energy and mobility Heinicke brought to the position last night. Sign Heinicke asap and spend money all around him. He is perfect for what we need...build the defense and get the o-line strong and we can play with anyone. This kid has moxie and we haven't seen that in a long time. Don't let him go.

 

If we can get a couple more OLinemen and WR's, and if possible another TE, Heinicke and this offense could be very good next year

Big questions surrounding our OLine next year. Seems the only guarantee is that Roullier will be starting Center, and probably Moses at RT.

Not a certainty that Scherff returns. Lucas and Schwietzer were both somewhat good, but we probably upgrade that.

Edited January 10, 2021 by Malapropismic Depository

[Thinking Skins]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

All the QBs you mention here though aren't IMO SB caliber QBs with the exception being Trent Green.  I liked Gus as much as the next guy but he's not likely going toe to toe with an Aaron Rodgers in a big game.   Fitpatrick hasn't even led a team to the playoffs in his long career.

See this is where you and I fundamentally disagree the most. I believe that any QB is SB caliber if they can be starter caliber (that's putting it very simple but it's the gist of it). Look at the likes of Flacco, Goff, Jimmy, Foles, E. Manning, etc. These guys weren't world beaters but they had good to great teams around them and they got hot at the right times. I think there is far greater risk involved in going after these big names. For one the salary cap ramifications, two is the trades involved, three is the message or sends. We've just preached a message of next man up, be ready, we will reward you and then two guys come out and perform way above their pay grade and we say let's go get somebody who will command top dollar. It's the Carlos Rogers statement about us not liking our own. 

 

Im not sure what TH's QBR was but Allen had one in the 70s. That's one of the best numbers we've seen in a while. I have durability concerns, but that's different than a Jeff George grass is greener type move. And I'd set Ryan and Stafford as Jeff George type moves. Not the character but need to replace a Brad Johnson who "couldn't get us over the hump" only to see him take another team over the hump. Meanwhile we haven't had a QB as good as him since. 

[UKskins]

5 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Im not sure what TH's QBR was

78.4 last night

102 vs the Panthers

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, UKskins said:

 

I don't care if it's Peyton Manning in his prime under centre, if he is throwing to scrubs like Sims x 2 and Isaiah Wright, we ain't going anywhere. The cost of getting a really good QB this year is a killer for the roster development (without lucking into one or one falling into our laps).

 

I think Ron will go big for a QB this year, and I will reserve judgement until I see how the roster shakes out but that's the path I would be looking at in his position. 

 

 

 

I get the logic.  My take on Qb is it depends on what's out there.    The fact that Kyle Smith and or Rivera have been really good thus far at FA and the draft, arguably smoked out that Haskins isn't the guy (Kyle didn't want to draft him period) and have found guys like Heinicke and Kyle Allen on the cheap gives me faith they will figure it out the right way.

 

My gut on this  (based on what I've read/heard in interviews) is that Rivera is hot to trot at the QB spot.  But i am guessing he takes the same tact he did at WR/TE the previous off season which is to shoot hard for a top target if one manifests and if they need to chase an option B instead then they won't be willing to overpay and just take what comes as to price/value and if need be stay put. 

 

As for WRs, everything being equal I'd love for them to be ambitious and shoot for a top type of name like Allen Robinson, Cory Davis, Samuel, Godwin, etc.  But lets say they expend too much at Qb to go that aggressive -- I still think our WR corp is so below par right now that then ever the lesser names like Marvin Jones, Hilton, etc, who I don't think would cost much would be a major improvement.  It's also a stacked draft at WR.

 

For me, i am open to anything at QB.   In the end, I likely will endorse whatever they do.  They know Kyle Allen and Heinicke better than anyone so if they feel they would kill it and they are the answer, I'd be cool with going on that ride.  Conversely, if they think they need an upgrade, I'd endorse that too. 

[Warhead36]

Remember we went hard after Amari Cooper last offseason. I wouldn't be surprised if Rivera sees WR as our biggest need.

[CommanderDOOM]

59 minutes ago, rumplestilskin said:

Allen, Heineken and Fitzpatrick would be a good bullpen. 

Kind of seems redundant. Maybe replace Allen or Fitz with a high risk/reward guy like Lance or the kid from Byu.

[heyholetsgogrant]

 

10 hours ago, Burgold said:

If the knock on Hienike is health, I wonder if that's fixable. After all, Taylor was training to be in math nerd shape and not football shape. What would an offseason of real football work do for him?

Haskins got in better shape the offseason, only problem is he was just terrible to begin with. At least Taylor can play.

Edited January 10, 2021 by heyholetsgogrant

[PartyPosse]

2 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I don’t think getting a new QB prevents those other moves. Draft picks in early.mid rounds of 1,2,3,3,4,5 plus 40-60mil in cap space depending on various factors.
 

We’re in good shape. Too good of shape to go lame at QB.

Agreed. Would you move on, or would you keep him around if his contract was re-worked?

Move on. He’s proven his point of how tough he is, but this team can’t trust his durability concerns if they want a long run in the playoffs.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

See this is where you and I fundamentally disagree the most. I believe that any QB is SB caliber if they can be starter caliber (that's putting it very simple but it's the gist of it). Look at the likes of Flacco, Goff, Jimmy, Foles, E. Manning, etc.

 

Those QBs aren't exactly no name scubs.  Three first round picks (2 of which are top 5), a 2nd and a third rounder who basically hit lightening in a bottle one post season but otherwise has had mostly a meh career.  And if those are your examples of how you don't have to reach high for a QB -- your point makes my point very well. 

 

Where we disagree is from what I observed, you tend to ignore math and IMO go with emotions about players.  You still tout Jason Campbell.  You defended Haskins right to the end.  You still defend Bruce Allen by touting things like the trade to Case Keenum.  You still talk about Kapri Bibbs.  You love the underdog and like to push for the ones who are unloved on the board like Bruce for years and Haskins when it was uncool to do so.   if you were in finance, you'd be about buying the Dogs of the Dow.  

 

So yeah I do think we have a different perspective.  I think its cool that you like going aganist the grain.  I am willing to take some arrows for having uncool positions too or banking on outliers but its not a reflex or default position for me as it seems to be for you. You seem to cherish the underdog, the unloved, and the outlier.  How many times have you mentioned Nick Mullens this season?  I get it, Mullens came cheap, he came out of nowhere.  But IMO he also isn't good. 

 

My other issue with your stances on it is it comes off to me defeatist.  Even if I ran with an example of a dude who hit lightening in a bottle like Foles and had a flukey run in the post season.  Aside from it being unlikely to repeat itself - don't we want sustainable success?  Are the Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen types who likely will have their teams competitive for like 10 years just kind of like what happens to other teams but not us?  We got to shoot lower?

 

 

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

 We've just preached a message of next man up, be ready, we will reward you and then two guys come out and perform way above their pay grade and we say let's go get somebody who will command top dollar. It's the Carlos Rogers statement about us not liking our own. 

 

I know you aren't a Rivera guy.   Has that changed?  How about all the zillion comments from players who said they love the guy and trust him?  I'd presume there wouldn't be a mutiny if for example he acquired Stafford.  You defended Bruce Allen to almost a zealot extent for years and the dude let a lot of players leave in FA -- why was it OK for him to move on from players like Preston Smith or Crowder, etc but with Rivera it would be off limits?    Crowder played well, it wasn't like he didn't earn a nice payday?

 

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

Im not sure what TH's QBR was but Allen had one in the 70s. That's one of the best numbers we've seen in a while. I have durability concerns, but that's different than a Jeff George grass is greener type move. And I'd set Ryan and Stafford as Jeff George type moves. Not the character but need to replace a Brad Johnson who "couldn't get us over the hump" only to see him take another team over the hump. Meanwhile we haven't had a QB as good as him since. 

 

Apples to oranges.  Brad Johnson was an established QB.  Kyle Allen has had one full season with abysmal QB stats and a small sample of another season with decent stats.  Stafford isn't a psycho like George.  Stafford's teammates seem to like him.  ditto Ryan. 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[86 Snyder]

1 hour ago, rumplestilskin said:

Allen, Heineken and Fitzpatrick would be a good bullpen. 

 

Man, this is perfect.  I've been all in on drafting a QB in the 1st, but I'm doing a total 180 after last night.

 

Fitz would be the perfect insurance policy to guard against Heinicke turning into a pumpkin or Allen being super meh.  Love it.

[Skinsinparadise]

26 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Remember we went hard after Amari Cooper last offseason. I wouldn't be surprised if Rivera sees WR as our biggest need.

 

If you listen to Ron interviews, what beat guys have heard, etc.  They practically put up a billboard for the off season shopping list:

 

QB

WR

MLB

 

Rivera has hinted he's happy with the O line.  So while that is touted by some as a need, I wonder if they go shopping on that front. 

[CapsSkins]

Just now, 86 Snyder said:

 

Man, this is perfect.  I've been all in on drafting a QB in the 1st, but I'm doing a total 180 after last night.

 

Fitz would be the perfect insurance policy to guard against Heinicke turning into a pumpkin or Allen being super meh.  Love it.

 

The Q is whether Fitz would want to come here. Not saying he wouldn't - just that he'll likely have several suitors and I have no idea what criteria are important to him. Will a team be willing to guarantee him the starting job somewhere? IDK.

 

I'm a little more into Heinicke-Allen-Tyrod. All younger guys, mobile, differing levels of experience.

 

[86 Snyder]

Mullins?  Lololol.  Really??  He is flat terrible.