PeterMP Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) 11 hours ago, abdcskins said: I ain't gonna die bro, if that is what you are implying. I am 37 years old. As someone who initially said this was all mass hysteria, I am starting to understand the gravity of the situation. Nonetheless, the fact that the recovery rate is so high and that people are responding in such a serious fashion makes me think that the spread of the virus in this country will be contained. We will see in the coming weeks. The death rate even among young and healthy people is not 0%. It is extremely unlikely you are going to die, but they aren't 0. This is not my area of expertise at all, and it depends on what you mean by contain, but I don't think it can really be "contained". We can't shut down the country indefinitely (i.e. until there is a vaccine) and there appear to be asymptomatic carriers. (https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronavirus-research-woman-with-no-symptoms-infects-five-people#What-does-this-mean? This is common for many infectious diseases.) What people are talking about is flattening the curve in hopes that the healthcare system isn't overwhelmed. To me, that appears to be a best case scenario until there is a vaccine. The problem is going to be after 3 weeks or so of social isolation if things appear to be under control, there is going to be a lot of pressure to reopen things. But there are still going to be some sick people out there and it appears there will be asymptomatic carriers that will just start the process over. The flattened curve is going to have a long tail. I haven't seen where anybody has really addressed how long the tail is going to be to actually maintained a flattened curve. (and that all assumes that in the process of flattening the curve it doesn't mutate to evade our immune systems so you don't get an effect where people that have already been sick can get sick again.) Edited March 15, 2020 by PeterMP 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, twa said: what more would you suggest? Closing bars and restaurants. At east consider closing almost all businesses. Obviously health care is an exception. Emergency services like police and fire. some gas stations need to stay open. But then I think you get into things that are more borderline. Do you need grocery stores open? Maybe close 2 out of 3? Drug stores? Does society need UPS and similar drivers? I could see that argument. (And I assume that leaving boxes on peoples doorstep doesn't involve much person to person contact.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 @PeterMP from what I can tell, over the next three weeks cases are going to explode and some of the people hanging out at bars and concerts are going to get it through their heads that this is serious. Or at least the government will move to take quarantine steps like they did in Italy. We’re going to marginally flatten the curve, if only because the exponential growth we would have experienced otherwise would have been too aggressive to imagine. Another issue right now is that I’m seeing anecdotal evidence from hospital workers (including in this thread from tshile and Larry) that hospitals are already starting to be overwhelmed. But if you look at case counts by state, they’re creeping up gradually. Lack of testing seems to have caused a serious disconnect between where we in this outbreak’s progression and where a lot of people think we are. No clue what the coming weeks are going to bring but if we have any hope of getting this thing under control, people are going to have to accept this level of isolation as a longer term reality vs a short term inconvenience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, twa said: what more would you suggest? This thread is 130+ pages. Can you stop trolling us for 2 seconds? I'm in church, I dont know next in person service we will have. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Larry said: Closing bars and restaurants. At east consider closing almost all businesses. Obviously health care is an exception. Emergency services like police and fire. some gas stations need to stay open. But then I think you get into things that are more borderline. Do you need grocery stores open? Maybe close 2 out of 3? Drug stores? Does society need UPS and similar drivers? I could see that argument. (And I assume that leaving boxes on peoples doorstep doesn't involve much person to person contact.) closing bars and limiting restaurants to take out/delivery is a good option, but shut down too much and you cause more problems. how are supplies and workers supposed to get to the essential services or those in need? ups and such are medical lifelines for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 It’s a lot easier to suggest closing all service based businesses when you don’t own any of them... “We should get paid (income assistance for employees), but y’all shouldn’t (close up shop boys)” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Renegade7 said: This thread is 130+ pages. Can you stop trolling us for 2 seconds? I'm in church, I dont know next in person service we will have. you on your phone responding to me in church? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, twa said: you on your phone responding to me in church? Gonna guess that the sermon is about being distracted by Satan 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 Just now, CousinsCowgirl84 said: It’s a lot easier to suggest closing all service based businesses when you don’t own any of them... I'd close mine but some depend on me since they can't hole up for the duration and play video games 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, twa said: ups and such are medical lifelines for many I could see the argument that parcel delivery services are both a low risk of serving as vectors, and essential for some, and would increase compliance and reduce hardship for many. Balance risk and benefit, I'd say keep them running. Edited March 15, 2020 by Larry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, twa said: you on your phone responding to me in church? Jus started, most have bible apps now. My point stands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Renegade7 said: Jus started, most have bible apps now. My point stands Most have what now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said: Most have what now? online or downloadble bibles and study aids ....much easier than toting a bible you never heard of that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said: Most have what now? Youversion. I made an exception to posting for this quick moment because of a notification that pissed me off, obviously I'm not helping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, twa said: online or downloadble bibles and study aids ....much easier than toting a bible you never heard of that? people didn’t have cell phones that were portable computers last time I stepped foot in a church, just struck me as interesting. Figured churches would be a traditional kind of place that still used real books. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said: people didn’t have cell phones that were portable computers last time I stepped foot in a church, just struck me as interesting. Figured churches would be a traditional kind of place that still used real books. me either actually I do find them better for my old eyes and the research and study tools vastly superior to my bookshelves....but I use laptop, tablet or cast to the tv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 I really think that going to church at this point is a bad idea. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearrock Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 At this point, I'm skeptical that voluntary social distancing will work. Just found out that an elderly relative met up with three of her friends yesterday for a social call.🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FanboyOf91 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 Man, I feel so owned right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 Know the stories from your parents about being assigned odd or even days to get gas in the 80’s? That’s what we need for going shopping in public. Time slots assigned to everyone. Ease rushes on stores and spread out congestion people need to start thinking out of the box for rational ways to ease congestion and rushes, let stores restock and sanitize, ease pressure on supply lines and logistics, and quell fear by implementing and easy to understand system and assure competence at the top levels our government is so slow to react. We’re so far behind flights should have been grounded a week ago and we should already have a shopping system in place. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 Out walking the dogs and just walked past a coffee store which was quite busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 My question with all these proposed bans or shut-downs, etc... Where does this stop? We do this now, fine. In 2 years do we force citizens to panic, buy TP, and stay indoors the next time we see an illness? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said: My question with all these proposed bans or shut-downs, etc... Where does this stop? We do this now, fine. In 2 years do we force citizens to panic, buy TP, and stay indoors the next time we see an illness? We talking the cold or something that has the potential to kill 1m people in this country before the year is over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said: My question with all these proposed bans or shut-downs, etc... Where does this stop? We do this now, fine. In 2 years do we force citizens to panic, buy TP, and stay indoors the next time we see an illness? it depends on the lethality and how infectious it is. you look at the risks. I take shelter when there’s a tornado warning but not if it’s a bit windy. Edited March 15, 2020 by Corcaigh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spjunkies Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now