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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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We need 50 to 70 percent infection rate to build herd immunity absent a vaccine.  Might as well have all the millennials get it. They aren’t good for anything else anyway. Plus they can finally have a purpose. Keep eating your Red Robin in large groups! 😂 

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1 hour ago, visionary said:

I worry that we're all in denial about long this will actually take.....

Denial or optimistic? 

 

I said two weeks ago summer was shot, now looks like the whole year at minimum.  

 

I'm not saying I'm right, I jus believe a lot of people are hoping we dont jus stay this way until a vaccine is out. 

 

So much of this will be getting used to the new normal, no one knows what that is yet.  I can see folks having to go back to work to keep economy from collapsing, then accepting that if someone is in the risk group, they are the ones that have to maintain as much social distancing as possible until the vaccine is out. 

 

Most of us wont need one, this is very much about protecting those that do right now.  Why I capitulated on the schools. At some point it wasnt about the schools being mostly asymptomatic it was about protecting the teachers and the kids grandparents.

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7 minutes ago, bearrock said:

To be fair, that woman (Katie Williams) seems like a nutjob.  Running for school board in Nevada too....

 

The flip side of that.  Wasn't AOC on record around 48 hours ago that people were racist for not eating in Chinese restaurants during this pandemic?

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2 minutes ago, Nerm said:

 

The flip side of that.  Wasn't AOC on record around 48 hours ago that people were racist for not eating in Chinese restaurants during this pandemic?

 

I think enough changed in the last 48 hours to justify going from "Eat out and don't discriminate based on xenophobia" to "this is a critical time for social distancing, try not to eat out at all"

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Katie is indeed just a tad out there. But she isn't alone in the attitude she displays in that tweet. Locally,(Northern Nevada),I've seen a lot of this. Restaurants and bars crowded. Casino parking lots packed. I've watched way too many elderly walking around not giving a damn. In groups even. 

Schools are still open but sporting activities are canceled.  Carson City is going to spend the 4 day weekend that kids don't have school disinfecting schools. I'm working at the moment. Little slow,but earlier it was busy an the precautions folks could take were nowhere to be seen. Ive been told that this all media hype. So while I hope that states,counties,and businesses doing the right thing will help,that is negated by,well,many of the people it's all trying to help.

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36 minutes ago, visionary said:

Eating out tweets

 

 

We are perhaps a week behind France and Spain in terms of growth of COVID 19 infection, and they have shut down bars, restaurants and public spaces.

 

Given that, I think it's ****ing reckless to be in any kind of crowded setting knowing what we know is happening in Europe. I don't want to look back in a month or two and be responsible for killing someone by passing the virus because I had a meal out. Or taking away a hospital bed from someone whose life is in jeopardy.

 

Here are linear and log versions of the COVID 19 Lag tracker.

 

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The source of this awesome visualization is at: https://www.algebris.com/policy-research-forum/blog/covid-19-facts/#

 

 

 

Edited by Corcaigh
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2 minutes ago, bearrock said:

 

I think enough changed in the last 48 hours to justify going from "Eat out and don't discriminate based on xenophobia" to "this is a critical time for social distancing, try not to eat out at all"

 

Maybe so, but I think a lot of people are seeing all of this through such a political lense.  Trump was blasted for xenophobia because he instituted a travel ban from China, while the WHO said it wasn't necessary... until 48 hours later.  Does he get a bunch of credit for being proactive? Don't get me wrong, Trump clearly uses xenophobia for political reasons.  But it is so strange to me how people are so strongly inclined to view everything through a political lense.  How many people complaining about Trump will give him the benefit of the doubt when his responses change over the course of 48 hours... based on new information.

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@Corcaigh I think at this point, a total shutdown makes sense due to lack of available tests.  But then there has to be an economic package to help those small business owners and workers not covered by paid leave.  I can't begin to wrap my head around how much that would cost....

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5 minutes ago, Nerm said:

 

Maybe so, but I think a lot of people are seeing all of this through such a political lense.  Trump was blasted for xenophobia because he instituted a travel ban from China, while the WHO said it wasn't necessary... until 48 hours later.  Does he get a bunch of credit for being proactive? Don't get me wrong, Trump clearly uses xenophobia for political reasons.  But it is so strange to me how people are so strongly inclined to view everything through a political lense.  How many people complaining about Trump will give him the benefit of the doubt when his responses change over the course of 48 hours... based on new information.

Did people criticize him for banning travel from China at the time?  He was criticized for repeatedly talking about closing the border with Mexico instead of doing things experts were recommending..  I know people criticized him for the Europe travel ban, because it seemed selective, was confusing and badly announced.  

 

 

 
Edited by visionary
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3 minutes ago, Nerm said:

 

Trump was blasted for xenophobia because he instituted a travel ban from China, while the WHO said it wasn't necessary... until 48 hours later. 

 

WHO changed their position on travel bans?  I thought their position continued to be that they are not likely to be effective.

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4 minutes ago, bearrock said:

@Corcaigh I think at this point, a total shutdown makes sense due to lack of available tests.  But then there has to be an economic package to help those small business owners and workers not covered by paid leave.  I can't begin to wrap my head around how much that would cost....


A temporary UBI is probably the most straightforward solution. Its pricetag at $1k/person/month would cost $1T over 3 months. But then again what’s another $1T in debt? 

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12 minutes ago, bearrock said:

@Corcaigh I think at this point, a total shutdown makes sense due to lack of available tests.  But then there has to be an economic package to help those small business owners and workers not covered by paid leave.  I can't begin to wrap my head around how much that would cost....

 

I agree. I wonder if it would depend on the business and whether they could use some of the the time productively in some other way for repairs, training, or maintenance etc. In the event of a hurricane or big blizzard businesses cope. This could be much longer for sure. But the idea of a business being opened when there's a significant risk of staff being infectious isn't good either.

 

Here's a thought ... buy gift cards from the small businesses you like to frequent and either use it yourself when this has passed, or gift it on birthdays or other occasions.

Edited by Corcaigh
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1 minute ago, skinsfan_1215 said:


A temporary UBI is probably the most straightforward solution. Its pricetag at $1k/person/month would cost $1T over 3 months. But then again what’s another $1T in debt? 

 

One of the former Obama advisor said on MSNBC that the debt has to be viewed through the lens of the cost of not doing something.  I'm just not confident in the ability of politicians to be that proactive.  I hope I'm wrong....

 

In the meantime, it's up to us individually to pick up the slack as much as possible to protect the vulnerable.  I mean you know it's really bad in Italy when Newt Gingrich is directly refuting Fox News talking points and calling for massive intervention.

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One thought on possible alternative to UBI, what if have the government make lines of credit available directly to the people?  It could have the following features

 

- It would not be contingent on ability to repay to make everyone eligible.  The cap per business and individual would be low to cover only immediate necessary expenses.  Cap would be a formula based on duration of declaration of national emergency and/or mandatory lock down.

- Make it interest free, without preset repayment period

- minimum monthly payment amount would be calculated as percentage of asset and income to ensure manageable payment

- The loan cannot be discharged in bankruptcy, but repayment may be suspended administratively without need for judicial intervention.

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