2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, volsmet said:

I found it troubling that so few thought signing Kirk/trading for Smith were each atrocious considerations. It’s hard to fathom choosing to do either intentionally.

 

 

There was a reasonable sized contingent of haters, I know I eviscerated the decision and totally lost my ---- in a way I haven't in years and years. I think most of the people who didn't attack fell into two categories: 1.) Turn the page types who just wanted to be positive and move on and not indulge negativity and 2.) Homers that are just uncritical and non-objective when it comes to team decision making. 

 

The former group I can understand. It isn't fun AT ALL being a redskin fan. It hasn't been fun for decades, plural, and for that group #1, they just want it to be fun, they don't want to indulge the negative side, even if it might be right. The latter group brings zero intellectual heft to the argument and often just looked at Alex Smith's career season and didn't recognize what was patently obvious at the time, that it was the outlier of outlier seasons, a byproduct of a super elite collection of pass catchers (at WR, TE and RB) playing at the top of their collective game and giving Alex Smith, his dream season. We were "the mark" at that poker table when it came to that trade, like that classic scene from Rounders, the biggest, fatest mark ever and they emptied our pockets in about 30 seconds. An all timer in terms of brutal trades, and for DC, there have been far too many of those kinds of trades in recent years. 

[skinny21]

The Smith trade?!  The uncertainty of what’s going to happen with the draft is bad enough, my sanity doesn’t want to revisit that cluster.  Ugh, I’m gonna visit the COVID thread to cool down.  

[volsmet]

2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

The Smith trade?!  The uncertainty of what’s going to happen with the draft is bad enough, my sanity doesn’t want to revisit that cluster.  Ugh, I’m gonna visit the COVID thread to cool down.  

It’s hard to imagine a bunch of highly paid humans electing to trade for Smith or sign Kirk to 30 million when the draft will give you a cheap qb any time you want - & Matt Moore’s are always hanging around hoping to manage your game for the low low price of 11 dollars. Mitch Trubisky isn’t any better than anyone in this thread, but he almost took a team to a conference title game while that team was paying a ridiculous amount of money to Mike Glennon. Humans wanted to pay Mike Glennon and draft Trubisky ahead of Watson & Mahomes. Humans with heads and feet who wear pants. Unbelievable.

 

[skinzplay]

1 hour ago, volsmet said:

It’s hard to imagine a bunch of highly paid humans electing to trade for Smith or sign Kirk to 30 million when the draft will give you a cheap qb any time you want - & Matt Moore’s are always hanging around hoping to manage your game for the low low price of 11 dollars. Mitch Trubisky isn’t any better than anyone in this thread, but he almost took a team to a conference title game while that team was paying a ridiculous amount of money to Mike Glennon. Humans wanted to pay Mike Glennon and draft Trubisky ahead of Watson & Mahomes. Humans with heads and feet who wear pants. Unbelievable.

 

 

Endora? Dr. Bombay? Uncle Arthur......is that you?

[Burgold]

It'll be interesting to see if teams draft better this year. So many players will not have their "pro" day. Will the greater reliance on game tape and not track events and individual workouts help or hurt. I suspect a few players that rise because they are wonders in the gym will not this year. Since those guys often sucker front offices into thinking that their weight lifting reps or work in shorts matter more than their on-field work, I wonder if the draft will yield fewer surprises.

[Skinsinparadise]

Draft Network's new mock

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/nfl-mock-draft-free-agency-2020-solak-6

 

 

Bengals

Joe Burrow

QB, LSU

Per sources, the Cincinnati Bengals are going to draft Joe Burrow first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft.

2.

 

Redskins

Chase Young

EDGE, Ohio State

Per sources, the Washington Redskins are going to draft Chase Young second overall in the 2020 NFL Draft.

3.

 

Lions

Jeffrey Okudah

CB, Ohio State

Per sources, the Detroit Lions are going to draft Jeffrey Okudah third overall in the 2020 NFL Draft.

This one isn’t that cut and dry, but maybe it should be. Okudah is a blue-chip prospect at a cornerstone position for a team that has a big need at cornerback. It should be a no-brainer.

4.

Giants

Isaiah Simmons

LB, Clemson

I like to draw a parallel between Isaiah Simmons and Saquon Barkley when it comes to Dave Gettleman making the pick at fourth overall. Both played positions that shouldn’t be valued this early in the first round, both are truly unique athletes for those positions and both have an extremely high floor because of their athletic ability. If Gettleman valued Barkley, why shouldn’t he value Simmons?

5.

 

Dolphins

Justin Herbert

QB, Oregon

I go back and forth every day that passes, and today happens to be a Justin Herbert day for the Miami Dolphins. Herbert’s arm talent considerably exceeds Tua Tagovailoa’s, and Herbert has a higher ceiling — he didn’t get nearly the help from his supporting cast that Tagovailoa did. General manager Chris Grier is a known fan of Herbert, and there’s plenty of smoke coming from Miami that Herbert is the favored player.

If you’re wailing in lamentation, Dolphins fans, calm down. Herbert really isn’t that bad.

6.

Chargers

Tua Tagovailoa

QB, Alabama

If Herbert or Tagovailoa make it to the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 6, and there’s no trade-up necessary for them to draft their quarterback of the future, they simply must take either player. You can’t have enough faith in a journeyman veteran like Tyrod Taylor to pass on a QB, and Tagovailoa has the intangibles, accuracy and football IQ to be the cornerstone on which Los Angeles builds its franchise.

7.

 

Jets

Tristan Wirfs

OT, Iowa

Trade Details:

Jets receive: 7th overall

Panthers receive: 11th overall, 79th overall

If there’s a team that’s well-equipped to trade up in the first to get their guy, it’s the New York Jets and the Carolina Panthers are looking to buy. The Jets have two third-round picks (Nos. 68 and 79) as a result of Leonard Williams’ trade — as well as an extra sixth-round selection from Darron Lee’s trade — and here they send the later of their third-round picks to the tanking Panthers to grab Tristan Wirfs.

New York could likely sit and take the best of the “Big 4” offensive tackles at No. 11, but Wirfs’ testing has catapulted him to the top of this class. The Jets will value that elite athleticism.

8.

Cardinals

Mekhi Becton

OT, Louisville

Mekhi Becton is a skyscraper, and I can’t wait to watch him play in the league. But the offensive he played in during his junior season at Louisville protected him from taking a lot of NFL-caliber pass sets. That’s okay. Arizona Cardinals’ offense is going to get the ball out quick, and Becton is just too big to get around quickly for even NFL edges.

9.

Jaguars

Derrick Brown

IDL, Auburn

Derrick Brown is still a top-10 pick in my book, and after losing Malik Jackson, Calais Campbell and Marcell Dareus in the past two offseasons, Brown is probably a top-10 pick in the Jacksonville Jaguars’ book too. They have needs at almost every position at this point in their tank and retool, so they should attack the best player available. That’s Brown.

10.

 

Browns

Andrew Thomas

OT, Georgia

The Cleveland Browns’ board at No. 10 should have four players on it: Wirfs, Becton, Andrew Thomas and Alabama’s Jedrick Wills. After ranking those four, Cleveland picks the best one left — it’s as simple as that. 

I like Thomas to the Browns because of the size, length and quickness aspect he profiles, which gives a good athletic signal for a successful NFL tackle to their analytic-minded front office.

11.

Buccaneers

Jordan Love

QB, Utah State

Trade Details:

Bucs receive: 11th overall

Panthers receive: 14th overall, 76th overall

We don’t hear Jordan Love’s name connected to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that often because he’s not a towering Godzilla QB with a jet-propelled arm, but that’s okay. Love still has delightful arm talent, and his best reps come as a rhythm thrower to the intermediate levels of the field. His touch deep needs consistency but there are flashes which Bruce Arians will hope to develop early.

The price is a third-round pick to get in front of Las Vegas and Indianapolis, but it’s worthy. And the Panthers get an even better selection than they got out of an earlier trade back, as those QBs always tend to drive up the prices.

12.

Raiders

Kenneth Murray

LB, Oklahoma

“Oh wow, this is too high for Kenneth Murray!”

Yeah, fourth overall was too high for Clelin Ferrell too. Here we go again.

Murray is a Las Vegas Raider through and through with a glass-eating mentality on the interior. He loves to stick his face in the fan and blow up blocks by arriving with velocity while also being a high-impact tackler with linear explosiveness. Murray’s like if Jonathan Abram ate a Super Mario mushroom.

13.

 

Colts

CeeDee Lamb

WR, Oklahoma

The Indianapolis Colts are in a good spot to sit and let value come to them at No. 13, and with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers getting aggressive to secure Jordan Love and their future quarterback, the Colts are glad to ride Jacoby Brissett train another year and add targets for their eventual franchise passer. CeeDee Lamb is a true WR1, who, like T.Y. Hilton, can win at all three levels and has elite yards-after-catch ability.

14.

Patriots

Jedrick Wills

OT, Alabama

Trade Details:

Patriots receive: 14th overall

Panthers receive: 23rd overall, 100th overall, 125th overall

Bill Belichick hasn’t traded up in the first round since 2012. The New England Patriots are typically a trade down team, but the Panthers are in a strong sell mode and the Patriots’ war chest teeming over with picks: three third-round selections and four in the sixth as a result of the compensatory picks awarded. 

Belichik prioritizes the trenches and gets aggressive attacking the offensive line following the departure of Joe Thuney in free agency. Wills could challenge for a tackle job, but he’s selected here to kick into guard and immediately contribute at the position. For only the extra price of a picks Nos. 100 and 125, why wouldn’t you go after such a stud?

15.

Broncos

Henry Ruggs III

WR, Alabama

The Denver Broncos’ interest in Henry Ruggs III is one of the worst-kept secrets in draft circles right now, so this was the easiest pick of the first round. Ruggs is an elite-field stretcher with a high ceiling as a route-runner. He’ll draw safety help away from alpha X-receiver Courtland Sutton to win against cornerbacks one-on-one.

16.

 

Falcons

K'Lavon Chaisson

EDGE, LSU

This is such a good fit. K’Lavon Chaisson has the athletic ability that general manager Thomas Dimitroff and head coach Dan Quinn covet. Chaisson is a primary speed rusher, which is the mold the Atlanta Falcons have been chasing in recent years. It’s a thin class, and he’s likely the only speed rusher with Year 1 starting ability besides Zack Baun, who isn’t a full-time EDGE. Run the card in.

17.

 

Cowboys

Jerry Jeudy

WR, Alabama

The Dallas Cowboys are going to tag Dak Prescott and when they do, Amari Cooper is likely to hit free agency. Now, the Cowboys could get him back, but if Cooper gets a bag thrown at him by the Colts or the Dolphins, the Cowboys’ receiving corps gets ugly, quick. Jerry Jeudy is a huge boon at No. 17 as he’s a route runner of Cooper’s caliber and slides into his role immediately.

18.

Eagles

Javon Kinlaw

IDL, South Carolina

Trade Details:

Eagles receive: 18th overall

Dolphins receive: 21st overall, 140th overall

Javon Kinlaw nears his floor at No. 18, and the Philadelphia Eagles trade up to stop the slide. Kinlaw is tailor-made for Jim Schwartz’s defense. It doesn’t matter if he loses ground in the trenches against power in the running game. Schwartz’s defensive tackles have only one job: get upfield. Kinlaw starts on a rotation-heavy line and lets Malik Jackson rush from wider alignments.

19.

 

Raiders

Kristian Fulton

CB, LSU

I’m going to stick Kristian Fulton squarely in the first round until I see actual proof that he isn’t a first-round pick, and that’s not coming until the draft itself. Some may be low on him, but Fulton is an elite man-cover cornerback for a team that needs help on the outside following Gareon Conley’s trade and Daryl Worley’s regression. Keep pouring resources into that defense, Mike Mayock.

20.

Jaguars

C.J. Henderson

CB, Florida

We know that the Jaguars have authored their own gaping need at cornerback with the expulsion of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye in the last calendar year. C.J. Henderson fits their mold at cornerback with sticky man cover ability and quality length plus strength even with the tackling issue considered.

21.

 

Dolphins

Lucas Niang

OT, TCU

Trade Details:

Eagles receive: 18th overall

Dolphins receive: 21st overall, 140th overall

Assuming Miami’s comfortable with Eric Rowe, Jomal Wiltz and Nik Needham as its depth behind star corner Xavien Howard — and the Dolphins should be as all three played well in 2019 — then it can pass on the corner depth in the 20s and grab a quick tradeback while still getting their tackle of the future. Lucas Niang is my favorite OT5 despite some of the buzz for other players. His film is flat-out better and he’s fully healthy coming out of the 2020 NFL Scouting Combine. He’s a Day 1 tackle who can start on either side.

22.

 

Bills

Justin Jefferson

WR, LSU

The WR class fell well for the Buffalo Bills. I’m sure if Ruggs and Jeudy got near the middle teens, general manager Brandon Beane would start calling for a trade-up. If he doesn’t get it, I love Justin Jefferson’s fit. He can play multiple positions across the formation with a full range of routes to all three levels of the field. He can also play underneath the existing field stretchers in John Brown and Robert Foster.

23.

Panthers

Jeff Gladney

CB, TCU

Trade Details:

Patriots receive: 14th overall

Panthers receive: 23rd overall, 100th overall, 125th overall

Here we are, Panthers fans: Carolina is finally making a selection. From No. 7 to No. 23, the Panthers have accumulated picks 76, 79, 100 and 125 — an ideal haul for a team turning over its roster and rebuilding across the course of multiple drafts. 

The Panthers will stay at the end of the first round to draft their James Bradberry replacement in Jeff Gladney, who battled Matt Rhule’s Baylor squad for a couple of years in the Big 12. Gladney is a quality man-cover cornerback with elite zone eyes. The versatility here is prime for a rebuilding team.

24.

 

Saints

Denzel Mims

WR, Baylor

I mean, how fun would this be? The New Orleans Saints have never given Michael Thomas the sidekick he deserves — which, of course, is one of the reasons why he’s setting volume records. Why not throw an uber-talented athlete opposite him who can win one-on-one situations and generate explosive plays? The best part? Denzel Mims can stay in one alignment while Thomas continues to move all over the field. Both are at home.

25.

Vikings

Noah Igbinoghene

CB, Auburn

Most people love the idea of Gladney in Minnesota, but in this mock, Carolina snipes him with its various trade backs. Mike Zimmer and the Vikings are left reaching. Noah Igbinoghene is a high-ceiling cornerback with the desired physicality, size and explosiveness. But he’s at least a year of starting away from NFL play, so there will be growing pains.

26.

 

Dolphins

Zack Baun

EDGE, Wisconsin

Zack Baun to Miami has been a favorite in the back end of the first round, and nothing in the past couple months has shaken my excitement. The Dolphins like their Wisconsin EDGEs, and Baun is a wicked quick athlete as a two-point stance rusher. Miami needs a player who can win one-on-one against top-flight tackles, and Baun can. His intangibles and leadership are great as well.

27.

Packers

Patrick Queen

LB, LSU

Trade Details:

Packers receive: 27th overall

Seahawks receive: 30th overall, 2021 fifth-round pick

Yes, the Green Bay Packers should consider getting aggressive in trade-ups. They’re only a few pieces away from having a complete roster across the board and linebacker is a big hole, especially with Blake Martinez entering free agency. Patrick Queen is worth the minimal capital spent to jump the Baltimore Ravens, who have a big LB need, and secure him as a long-term starter.

28.

Ravens

A.J. Epenesa

EDGE, Iowa

Baltimore’s making waves in the first hour of the 2020 NFL season after franchise-tagged Matt Judon while adding Campbell for a fifth-round pick — a redonkulous value. I have the Ravens continuing to pour resources into the defensive line with A.J. Epenesa, a great value this late in the first. Epenesa fits the mold of the dense, long, heavy-handed rushers that Baltimore has found success with in recent years.

29.

 

Titans

Yetur Gross-Matos

EDGE, Penn State

This is a pick I love to attack when Yetur Gross-Matos is available, and with the Tennessee Titans officially moving on from Cameron Wake, it only makes all the more sense. Gross-Matos is long, explosive and has a super high-ceiling, which makes him the fourth EDGE off of the board — even if his college film isn’t that of a first-round selection.

30.

 

Seahawks

Josh Jones

OT, Houston

Obviously, the Seattle Seahawks had to open with a trade down, even though it was a small one. Here, they try to grab Duane Brown’s foil and Germain Ifedi’s replacement with Josh Jones. He’s a raw prospect from Houston who will need development under Mike Solari in Seattle’s largely rehabilitated offensive line.

31.

Panthers

Jalen Hurts

QB, Oklahoma

Trade Details:

Panthers receive: 31st overall

49ers receive: 38 overall, 113th overall

All of those trade downs just to trade back up into the first? Absolutely! 

When the Panthers were sitting there at No. 38 with a fifth-year option dangling on the end of a potential QB pick, they had to spend some capital to get back into Round 1. Jalen Hurts has steadily improved across the course of his career. His stock is on the rise and he should be expected as the fifth QB off the board.

32.

 

Chiefs

Damon Arnette

CB, Ohio State

This pick makes too much sense, so I’m sticking to my guns. Damon Arnette is a high-caliber man cover cornerback with pro quickness, strength and speed. He only has one year of great play and is an older prospect, but the Kansas City Chiefs are looking to repeat as Super Bowl champions and are in need of immediate man coverage help on the outside. Arnette is as pro-ready as they get.

[KDawg]

6 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

I think the difference is Okudah doesn’t have a weakness. Henderson, for example, is an average at best tackler.

 

That's why I have Okudah as my #1 CB...

 

But...

 

I still can't shake the whole "Chase Young" factor off of Ohio State guys. It's tough to measure his impact. Would Fulton look better, for instance, with Young + Chaisson? How about Henderson with Young off the edge? Diggs?

 

It's really difficult to gauge. 

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Burgold said:

It'll be interesting to see if teams draft better this year. So many players will not have their "pro" day. Will the greater reliance on game tape and not track events and individual workouts help or hurt. I suspect a few players that rise because they are wonders in the gym will not this year. Since those guys often sucker front offices into thinking that their weight lifting reps or work in shorts matter more than their on-field work, I wonder if the draft will yield fewer surprises. 

 

If you're a moron or a douchebag, this is the year to get drafted since you won't have to interview much, if at all.

[Burgold]

38 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

If you're a moron or a douchebag, this is the year to get drafted since you won't have to interview much, if at all.

I was so ready to get offended about what you were calling me... and then I read the end of the sentence

[Fresh8686]

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[The Consigliere]

7 hours ago, volsmet said:

It’s hard to imagine a bunch of highly paid humans electing to trade for Smith or sign Kirk to 30 million when the draft will give you a cheap qb any time you want - & Matt Moore’s are always hanging around hoping to manage your game for the low low price of 11 dollars. Mitch Trubisky isn’t any better than anyone in this thread, but he almost took a team to a conference title game while that team was paying a ridiculous amount of money to Mike Glennon. Humans wanted to pay Mike Glennon and draft Trubisky ahead of Watson & Mahomes. Humans with heads and feet who wear pants. Unbelievable.

 

 

What's as important and relevant as your piece is that this was consensus at the time. It's one of those things we need to underline a thousand times over until tape grinders, and tape scouts get this. It's all --------, the miss wasn't a bears miss, it was a league wide miss. Glennon was a top FA QB in that FA class for everybody, it's just the bears that got him to sign on the dotted line. And Trubisky, now, farcically seen as the #1 QB Prospect in a class that also featured Mahomes and Watson (now the probably the two, or two of the three or four best QB's drafted since Russell Wilson) was also the consensus #1 QB in that class.

 

The Bears were reading off the same dopey tape grinder scouting reports everyone else was which was why every draft anywhere had Trubisky as the #1 QB in the class late winter and all spring of '17 and why the Bears panic traded up with the Niners to lock him. The only people that eschewed this preference were in the analytics community, but even some of them missed as well, but with regards to Watson, rather than Trubisky.

 

That year I didn't have any feel for those guys, one of my fav analytics sites and people in Matt Kelley and player profiler were down on Watson because when combined, the tape grinders view of him having a weaker arm, combined with the horrid velocity testing, made it sound like he flat out didn't have the arm. He looked like a superstar, carried himself with QB moxie, but those are intangibles and I've seen countless piles of intangibles lead nowhere over the 30+ years I've been watching the NFL Draft and the ensuing careers. So I was down on him and only landed him on one dynasty team, a huge mistake. One of the reasons I love and prefer analytics analysis to to tape grinding is because they build and test models, and constantly adjust and either fix or dump things that don't work. Following the velocity misses, and the difficulty in getting anything from the velocity drills to actually connect consistently with future success rate, it was dumped. My guys owned the Watson miss, owned the velocity test unreliability, and dumped it. I still wait to see anything like that happen with tape grinders, anything like that happen with why they missed on Trubisky which is no doubt why guys like Josh Allen a year after Trubisky end up going so high yet again (and for the record, the analytics community was high on Mahomes, lower on Watson, and lowest on Trubisky ranking them in that order, essentially nailing it).

 

 

 

 

 

[PartyPosse]

5 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

That's why I have Okudah as my #1 CB...

 

But...

 

I still can't shake the whole "Chase Young" factor off of Ohio State guys. It's tough to measure his impact. Would Fulton look better, for instance, with Young + Chaisson? How about Henderson with Young off the edge? Diggs?

 

It's really difficult to gauge. 

You can say that about the QBs in the league as well. You look at the weapons of Burrow and Tua and make a case that they looked good because of what they had around them. That was a criticism of Haskins when he was drafted. You still have to do your job when called upon.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, PartyPosse said:

You can say that about the QBs in the league as well. You look at the weapons of Burrow and Tua and make a case that they looked good because of what they had around them. That was a criticism of Haskins when he was drafted. You still have to do your job when called upon.

 

Agreed.

 

And that WAS the case with Haskins when he was drafted. Among other concerns.

 

And right now, that doesn't look favorable (but can change, without a doubt).

 

So that's why it's all part of the game. It's all part of evaluation. You have to find a balance to measure individual impact vs. team impact. It's a very slippery slope to fly down. 

 

 

[volsmet]

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

If you're a moron or a douchebag, this is the year to get drafted since you won't have to interview much, if at all.

 

 

I’ll be awaiting directions to the green room. 

 

[volsmet]

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

What's as important and relevant as your piece is that this was consensus at the time. It's one of those things we need to underline a thousand times over until tape grinders, and tape scouts get this. It's all --------, the miss wasn't a bears miss, it was a league wide miss. Glennon was a top FA QB in that FA class for everybody, it's just the bears that got him to sign on the dotted line. And Trubisky, now, farcically seen as the #1 QB Prospect in a class that also featured Mahomes and Watson (now the probably the two, or two of the three or four best QB's drafted since Russell Wilson) was also the consensus #1 QB in that class.

 

The Bears were reading off the same dopey tape grinder scouting reports everyone else was which was why every draft anywhere had Trubisky as the #1 QB in the class late winter and all spring of '17 and why the Bears panic traded up with the Niners to lock him. The only people that eschewed this preference were in the analytics community, but even some of them missed as well, but with regards to Watson, rather than Trubisky.

 

That year I didn't have any feel for those guys, one of my fav analytics sites and people in Matt Kelley and player profiler were down on Watson because when combined, the tape grinders view of him having a weaker arm, combined with the horrid velocity testing, made it sound like he flat out didn't have the arm. He looked like a superstar, carried himself with QB moxie, but those are intangibles and I've seen countless piles of intangibles lead nowhere over the 30+ years I've been watching the NFL Draft and the ensuing careers. So I was down on him and only landed him on one dynasty team, a huge mistake. One of the reasons I love and prefer analytics analysis to to tape grinding is because they build and test models, and constantly adjust and either fix or dump things that don't work. Following the velocity misses, and the difficulty in getting anything from the velocity drills to actually connect consistently with future success rate, it was dumped. My guys owned the Watson miss, owned the velocity test unreliability, and dumped it. I still wait to see anything like that happen with tape grinders, anything like that happen with why they missed on Trubisky which is no doubt why guys like Josh Allen a year after Trubisky end up going so high yet again (and for the record, the analytics community was high on Mahomes, lower on Watson, and lowest on Trubisky ranking them in that order, essentially nailing it).

 

 

 

 

 

It seems some would invest more in what’s repeatable than what’s not. Everyone still chases the QB, everyone is willing to drastically over pay good QBs at the expense of the roster; everyone is chasing some romantic idea & failing to invest the growing amount of data that shows Mark Sanchez, Blake Bortles, and Mitch Trubisky leading teams to the playoffs ... as rookies, as atrocious QBs, as guys who led nothing & knew less than nothing. A bad QB doesn’t kill your season, a bad contract does.
 

I haven’t adopted the use of analytics nearly as much in the actual draft as I have in dfs — though, my biggest dfs win was due entirely to a form of analysis that you largely disregard. I shared here that Smith & Kirk we’re equally abysmal options & I had Watson as the best player in his draft ... I watched him make light work of Bama, twice -- the arm strength & injuries dropped him to 12... the parallels to Tua are compelling, but he doesn’t have the huge games on the biggest stage. 

 

[The Consigliere]

I think we have some big game track record for him:

 

Biggest games I can see using counting stats:

 

'17: 

National title game: 14-24/166/3-1 which started the hype in that comeback win. 

 

'18: 

SEC Championship vs Georgia: 10-25/164/1-2: Yuck. 

 

Final Four Playoff Game 1 vs Oklahoma: 24-27/318-4-0

 

National Title Game vs Clemson: 22-34/295/2-2

 

 

One stinker in there, one solid game, one good game, and one good lord he's the messiah game. 

 

[Anselmheifer]

Unless we trade Trent for Hunter Henry, you have to figure we are going to draft TE pretty high. We’ve always drafted for need and I could see us grabbing Trautman in the 3rd, if he’s there.

[xxprodigyxx]

31 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

Unless we trade Trent for Hunter Henry, you have to figure we are going to draft TE pretty high. We’ve always drafted for need and I could see us grabbing Trautman in the 3rd, if he’s there.

I hope not. I'd rather put the 3rd in a deep WR class and find a stop gap TE solution for this year and I think that's what the are  going to do if they go offensive skill position there.

[ultravin]

if the other chase is available, as in chase claypool, i would take him at 3.  big catch radius, 6-4/5 235lbs, ran 4.4 at combine.  has speed for his size but did not run a lot of routes in ND.  that's also assuming that we don't get any WR during free agency.

[KDawg]

7 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Unless we trade Trent for Hunter Henry, you have to figure we are going to draft TE pretty high. We’ve always drafted for need and I could see us grabbing Trautman in the 3rd, if he’s there.

 

With reports that the Skins were in on Cooper, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them go after a receiver. I actually think receiver is going to be their target in the second round if we get a 2 for Williams. Especially if a Mims type is on the board.

 

I don't think tight end is as much of a priority for the Skins as people here seem to think.

 

So far, they've operated in the same way I have described.

 

Fill holes with moderate players and not huge contracts (though I did want Cooper, but not for 20M+/year, sit tight at TE and see what Hentges has (but possibly add a low cost vet), sign a backup guard). The only thing they haven't done is snag a tackle.

 

What is concerning to me is I think Williams is in their plans to be the LT. I think they are banking on Williams testing the market and seeing it isn't there, and 71 coming back and playing for the Skins. 

 

If that's the case, we only have a 3rd. I don't see Trautman being the BPA, even with weighted need, at our pick in the third. ADG could be there, Niang could be there, multiple receivers (Pittman, Duvernay, Van Jjefferson, etc), corners could be there. I see all of them as better overall choices than Trautman. But who knows, maybe the Skins scouts disagree. 

 

I think Claypool is more likely at TE than Trautman, just because if he can learn the blocking aspect he's more versatile. I don't love him as an outside receiver type, but as a versatile guy that can play Y, H or some outside stuff his value increases tremendously. 

[Going Commando]

Really bummed about Anthony Harris getting tagged.  He would have been such an ideal for here.  Maybe we can still get Tre Boston.

 

I really like the Kendall Fuller signing.  I like him better than Bradberry.

 

I also think if we draft for need in the 3rd, we'll probably reach a bit on a corner unless someone really good and surprising drops.

 

We're not going to go after him since we have two talented young backs and we love Adrian Peterson, but I wish we could swap Peterson for Melvin Gordon.  I think he's going to be one of the few real free agency bargains this offseason.

[Going Commando]

Pff is projecting Mackenzie Alexander to get a 4 mil AAV deal.  I would like to sign him for that kind of number.  That would be bargain shopping.  Get an extension done with Dunbar and the secondary would start to fill out.

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[Vanguard]

It’s funny watching Giants fans thinking they have a shot at landing Chase Young.  I’m ready to get the draft over with.  Besides the obvious, maybe we’ll have a nice surprise somewhere.