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Election 2018 Thread (An Adult Finally Has the Gavel)


PleaseBlitz

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From Jon Ralston, the dean of Nevada elections.

 

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

 

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11/3/18, 9:00 AM

RATINGS BASED ON EARLY/MAIL NUMBERS:

 

U.S. Senate: Slight lean D

Gov: Slight lean D

CD3: Slight lean D

CD4: Likely D

State Senate: D at least 12, chance at 14

Assembly: D at least 26, chance at 28

 

Democrats had their best last day of any midterm in history, with waves in Clark and Washoe that boosted the urban firewall to close to 50,000 — 47,000 in Clark and 1,800 in Washoe. The rurals (not all are in) cut into that lead by almost 2,000 voted Friday, but the 9,000-ballot edge in Clark (almost 20 percent win) and 1,000-ballot edge in Washoe far outstripped the usual rural hemorrhaging.

 

The statewide lead, once the rurals all report, will be about D+23,000, or 3.7 percent. The Clark lead is now 45-34, or just two points under the reg edge, so if there is not much base-bleeding and if indies are not going big for the Repubs, Steve Sisolak and Jacky Rosen will have double-digit leads coming out of Clark.

 

Washoe seems very, very unlikely to help Repubs (Dean Heller won it by 20,000 votes during his 2012 miracle win), and the rurals are not very far above their actual percentage of the state vote — about half a percent — to do enough damage on Election Day (this ain’t 2016) unless there are a LOT of folks in those 15 counties who waited. It’s possible, just not likely.

 

The bottom line: Republicans need a really good day Tuesday to stop Democrats from at least a pastel blue wave and it may get to navy blue if the Dems hold their own on Election Day. It appears that these elections are breaking for the Dems at the end.

 

If I were Dean Heller, who has bucked large firewalls before (see 2012) and Adam Laxalt, I would be worried.

 

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6 hours ago, clietas said:

 

Jim Zorn fan he says.... ?

 

Looking for Intelligent conversation he says.... ?

 

Well aren't you just the gift that keeps on giving...

 

 

being a foul and petty sort, I've often enjoyed letting various dupe accts or other poster manifestations---say, jim zorn fans making other hilarious life choices---just be filed under Dead Man Walking for an undetermined time...it's a double secret probation kind of purgatory one exists in unknowingly, where you may wander the halls, your presence haunting other members, even for years....and then one day "poof'", it's all over...the internet can be so much like life...

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35 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

 

 

being a foul and petty sort, I've often enjoyed letting various dupe accts or other poster manifestations---say, jim zorn fans making other hilarious life choices----who can be filed under Dead Man Walking...it's that double secret probation kind of purgatory one exists in unknowingly, where you may wander the halls, your presence haunting other members even for years....and then one day "poof'", it's all over...the internet can be so much like life...

You wouldn't pull the trapdoor lever on a fellow Washingtonian, wouldcha?

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Headed to Cali for vacation. At least I’ll be commiserating with fellow Dems if things don’t go well. Having said that, I’m hopeful. I know some hard core GOP that are totally disillusioned with the GOP of today. They aren’t voting for their party this election.

4 minutes ago, visionary said:

 

 

 

 

 

We need to build in a way to make this illegal. The enormous amount of outright lies are almost as bad as the blatant racism coming from the GOP. 

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1 minute ago, Hersh said:

Headed to Cali for vacation. At least I’ll be commiserating with fellow Dems if things don’t go well. Having said that, I’m hopeful. I know some hard core GOP that are totally disillusioned with the GOP of today. They aren’t voting for their party this election.

 

But aren't they scared of brown militant invaders with leprosy and also who are pregnant with anchors and armed with rocks or possibly TERRORISM approaching our southern border (give or take 400 miles)????????

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1 minute ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

But aren't they scared of brown militant invaders with leprosy and also who are pregnant with anchors and armed with rocks or possibly TERRORISM approaching our southern border (give or take 400 miles)????????

 

Amazing isn’t it. Both that there are people that believe what you said and that it’s come to that as waking up members of the GOP to see what their party has been underneath the surface 

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11 minutes ago, Hooper said:

What happens when they both get convicted or take pleas? The party picks a replacement, right?

 

To be fair, the same thing will happen with Menendez in NJ.

 

 

Unsure but usually Representatives are replaced with a special election. The more interesting question is if they voluntarily leave or have to be expelled.

 

Menendez beat his case. The party should have made him drop out though.

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1 hour ago, Hooper said:

What happens when they both get convicted or take pleas? The party picks a replacement, right?

 

To be fair, the same thing will happen with Menendez in NJ.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/31/politics/menendez-charges-dismiss/index.html

 

Quote

After last fall's trial ended, one juror told reporters the jury was split 10-2 on all counts in favor of acquittal.

 

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