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Election 2018 Thread (An Adult Finally Has the Gavel)


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1 minute ago, ThinSkin said:

Being a Jim Zorn fan, I signed up when he became your coach and participated in football related discussion at the time. I'm participating now because there was word that this place was in dire need of some intelligent conversation....?

 

Jim Zorn fan he says.... ?

 

Looking for Intelligent conversation he says.... ?

 

Well aren't you just the gift that keeps on giving...

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5 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

Jim...Zorn......fan?

 

Can someone please explain what those words in that order mean?

Yeah, things didn't quite work out here with the 'Skins for Jim, to put it delicately.

At least the mods haven't censored his name in anyone's post,... not yet anyway.

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3 minutes ago, Springfield said:

So anyhow, anyone else here worried about tomorrow?  Like the Dems don’t even take the house?

That would be a bigger shock than Trump winning.

 

My final bet-

 

Dems win 35 House seats

GOP adds 1 Senate seat

Dems flip 9 Governors.

 

Both sides claim victory.  Neither really wins.

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2 minutes ago, Springfield said:

So anyhow, anyone else here worried about tomorrow?  Like the Dems don’t even take the house?

Worried might be too strong, but I am cautiously optimistic, key word there is cautious.

 

Republicans need polls to be about 3 points off away from real results to have a good shot at the house.

 

Meanwhile, if things swing the other way it could be a huge night for Dems.

 

Early voting suggests positive things for Dems.  But that's all a couple layers of analysis deep.

 

Key is to vote.  Pure and simple.

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4 minutes ago, Springfield said:

So anyhow, anyone else here worried about tomorrow?  Like the Dems don’t even take the house?

Yes I am concerned, But I'll add it's the first time in 20+ years of being with my wife she is going to actually vote.  So I'd say caustically optimistic that a lot of other people will do the same. 

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22 minutes ago, Springfield said:

So anyhow, anyone else here worried about tomorrow?  Like the Dems don’t even take the house?

 

Yes. Very much so. 

16 minutes ago, Kilmer17 said:

That would be a bigger shock than Trump winning.

 

My final bet-

 

Dems win 35 House seats

GOP adds 1 Senate seat

Dems flip 9 Governors.

 

Both sides claim victory.  Neither really wins.

 

If that happens thats clearly a good sign for our country. I agree nobody really wins. Especially while President Dingus is still in office.

 

It's going to be a long road back to sanity.

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24 minutes ago, Kilmer17 said:

That would be a bigger shock than Trump winning.

 

My final bet-

 

Dems win 35 House seats

GOP adds 1 Senate seat

Dems flip 9 Governors.

 

Both sides claim victory.  Neither really wins.

 

I think the outcomes are about right, but I would consider it a significant victory for Democrats to gain control of the House and 9 governors mansions (plus probably a number of statehouse chambers).  It will shut down any legislation that isn't bipartisan (House) and be a huge step to reversing the blatant gerrymandering (Govs and statehouses).  Adding 1 Senate seat when you already have a majority (and a tremendously good map) is not a great outcome for Rs.  

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Kilmer17 said:

That would be a bigger shock than Trump winning.

 

My final bet-

 

Dems win 35 House seats

GOP adds 1 Senate seat

Dems flip 9 Governors.

 

Both sides claim victory.  Neither really wins.

 

I think Dems take a few less House Seats. Otherwise, I agree with your prediction. 

 

Only outlier is if the non-showing youth actually show up this time. They aren't part of all the likely voter numbers. 

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50 minutes ago, ThinSkin said:

I  don't know if I would have a problem with what Adelson and Koch do with their money because I don't know what they do with their money.

 

I'll give you a hint: it has a ****ed up "spin" to it.

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Historically the Pres party loses 30 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate.  I can find any data about statewide losses.

 

For a President who is widely accepted as the least popular of all time, if he out performs the average, it will be a huge upset.  

 

Florida is going to tell me a lot about the future of politics and polling.  

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12 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

 

60+ million people voted for Donald Trump to be President. I will never feel safe/comfortable about an election again.

 

Yeah I feel sick right now and it will continue throughout tomorrow. He might be the Walmart brand of dictators but this guy has a legitimate chance tomorrow of making himself above the law until 2020. 

 

If the Dems don't win the House, Trump will end the investigation on Wednesday. 

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9 minutes ago, Kilmer17 said:

Historically the Pres party loses 30 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate.  I can find any data about statewide losses.

 

For a President who is widely accepted as the least popular of all time, if he out performs the average, it will be a huge upset.  

 

Florida is going to tell me a lot about the future of politics and polling.  

 

This ignores the rise of partisan gerrymandering in the past 15 or so years, and especially in 2011.  Dems need to win the nationwide popular vote by like 7 points for the House results to be even (some estimate it as high as 11 points).  Overcoming that to meet or beat the average would be great. 

 

But, a victory isn't about running up the score.  It's about taking back actual levers of power.  In the House, the number to beat is 23 seats.  If Trump outperforms the average, even significantly, but Dems still narrowly gain control of the House, who ****ing cares?  So long as Devin Nunes isn't Intel chair and biblical literalist Lamar Smith isn't Science chair (and on and on), that's what really matters.  Each governors mansion is one lever.  Whether a particular gov wins by 1 point, or 10 points, doesn't really matter. 

 

No matter what happens, Trump will claim both victory and victimhood, but who cares?

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1 hour ago, NoCalMike said:

 

It is definitely a moral dilemma, being forced to work within the confines of a system that you disagree with structurally. 

 

Try being a woman in patriarchy, exact same thing.

 

Or a peace-loving hippie working in the federal war sector to support their child.

 

I've had to do both, and I am so glad that I am retired now. Still have to live in patriarchy though.

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1 hour ago, ThinSkin said:

Being a Jim Zorn fan, I signed up when he became your coach and participated in football related discussion at the time. I'm participating now because there was word that this place was in dire need of some intelligent conversation....?

 

Let us know when you start adding any.

 

1 hour ago, Springfield said:

So anyhow, anyone else here worried about tomorrow?  Like the Dems don’t even take the house?

 

No. I'm more worried about the Senate becoming more GOP and voter apathy after this election.

 

20 minutes ago, gbear said:

As I think about voting tomorrow, I cant get this song out of my head:

Where is the love

 

I have Karma Police queued up.

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