2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[Anselmheifer]

I'm really starting to see less value at 13 for the DT's. I feel like the whole board is a broken record, but I hope we sign Hankins so we can just grab BPA at 13. 

I hadn't looked into Billy Price much, but it looks like he would be ridiculous on a line with Trent and Brandon Scherff. He looks like a possible all-pro type player at G. 

[Panninho]

Anyone has anything on Will Geary? PFF had him on their first All American team for the last college season.

 

Defensive interior: Maurice Hurst, Michigan; Will Geary, Kansas State

Our top-graded player, Hurst was unstoppable against both the run (94.4) and as a pass-rusher (92.3) where he topped all interior defensive linemen. He led all interior rushers with 48 total pressures (seven sacks, 10 QB hits, and 29 hurries). Geary was right behind Hurst with an 89.5 grade as a rusher while ranking sixth against the run at 87.4.

Second team: Ed Oliver, Houston; Vita Vea, Washington

 

Every page has him basically as a 7th rounder or undrafted free agent. As I don't watch a lot of college football I am curious why you do not hear anything at all about him. He seemed to had a pretty stellar senior year, so why is there not at least some mid- to late-round buzz?

 

This sounds interesting as well:

Draft Prospect Outlook:

Blue-collar interior defensive tackle who consistently wins with strong, active hands that help him win the angle and leverage battles both against the run and pass. LImited as an athlete. High motor. Likely to outperform his draft status.

College Recap:

A former walk-on, Will Geary recorded 45 tackles in 2015 and 2016 and earned first-team All-Big 12 honors both seasons, becoming the anchor to K-State’s 4-2-5 base defense. His career sparked by a game-winning forced fumble as a sophomore, Geary continued to grow into a fierce run stopper and pass rusher. Arguably his best showing came in the 2016 regular-season finale with a season-high seven tackles, including a career-high 3.5 tackles for a loss at TCU. He posted 120 career stops, most among an active player, heading into his senior season.

A relentless motor helped Geary to career highs with nine tackles for a loss and 4.5 sacks in 2017. He had a two-sack performance at Baylor and had one and a half sacks at Oklahoma State. Armed with good hands and quick feet and a cinder-block frame that’s difficult to handle, Geary proved particularly disruptive down the stretch with four tackles at Texas Tech, five at West Virginia, six at Oklahoma State and four at Iowa State to end the regular season. He ended his career with 43 starts and earned first-team All-American honors by Pro Football Focus and became the first K-State interior defensive lineman in 34 years to earn first-team all-conference honors three straight years. - D. Scott Fritchen, GoPowercat.com

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/player-blurb-will-geary-dt-kansas-state/

[skinny21]

WRT Roquan Smith - he’s not one of my top guys because 1) I believe others are better suited to help us in the short term (less positional redundancy) - Nelson, Fitzpatrick, Guice, a DT - 2) or we could trade back for an additional pick.  

 

With that said, Zach Brown’s cap hit jumps to 8.75 next year and then 9.5.  That’s a lot of money saved (and longer term stability at the position) if we drafted Smith.  Add in his coverage skills and I think the long term benefits far outweigh the lessened first year impact.  

 

One scenario becoming more attractive to me is trading back (adding a 2nd or 3rd and 4th maybe) and going something like this:

1st - Phillips

2nd - Price 

2nd (or 3rd) - Penny

4th - TE (Schultz?)

Then address a few of the following:  OLB, corner, ILB, WR, S.  

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Where's Billy Price slated to go?

I have him going anywhere from early 20's to early 2nd round. There is a run of teams that have interior needs in the 20's ... and between Wynn, Daniels, Price and Hernandez, hopefully one falls to R2.

 

I think there's a slim chance Price falls to #44. And if he does ... whether we go defense or RB at 13, I think he's the pick if he's there. But I really do hope the Pats are interested in moving up.

 

An elite player or two will fall to us at #13. As the board stands right now, I'd love to get the Browns' 33 and 35 OR get #23 and #31 from the Pats. Obviously with #23/31 being the priority there, but I think it would put us in prime position to take Price at 23 if he's there.

 

I think the absolute best-case scenario is Pats trade #23 and #31 to move to #13 and we use #23 to take Guice and #31 to take Price and then get the best defender at 44, whether that's Phillips, Settle, Hurst, Bryan, etc.

 

If Cleveland trades down from #4 with Buffalo and holds #12 and #22 ... I wouldn't be shocked if they went Darnold-McGlinchey at 1 and 12 ... and then used #22 and one of their early 2's to move back up and take an impact DL like Maurice Hurst. A lot of dominoes have to fall for that to take place, but that would be awesome.

@Panninho it looks like Walter Football has Geary as a 7th-UDFA for the 2019 draft class. Interesting.

[Why am I Mr. Pink?]

Im always interested in the different approach to 1st round pick. Do you trade down or stand pat? 

 

I always think if you have a tier 1 grade on a player and he is available, you take him. 

If no one on your board has a tier 1 grade when you are on the clock, trade down. 

 

Tier 1 being instant starter, pro bowl caliber. Maybe 5-10 guys a year getting that grade. 

[The Consigliere]

13 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Seems like Keim is putting out a billboard (he's said what he said below now multiple times) their board is

 

1. Fitzpatrick

2. D. James

3. Vea

4.  If they aren't there trade down -- and maybe get Guice

 

John Keim‏Verified account @john_keim 2h2 hours ago

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John Keim Retweeted NFL Network

Believe if Minkah and then Derwin aren't there then Vea would be the guy. We shall see.

 

 

 

 

 

That PFF piece scares the hell out of me regarding Vea and Payne, hoping they are gone when we pick, and Fitzpatrick or James fall to us. I take it we don't have interest in Edmunds or Smith then?

[skinsfan834]

I think its a bit of a pipe dream to think that the Pats will be moving up to our pick for two firsts. I think it's more likely they take the BPA at 23 and then Mason Rudolph at 31. 

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, HigSkin said:

 

 

Wonder if Jones hammy is still bothering him That's awfully slow versus expectations, ditto Burnett. The 3 cone sucks too. Makes zero sense if they're actually healthy. They should have pulled a Corey Davis before letting NFL scouts and GM's confirm potential suspicions.

[RWJ]

Skins sitting in a good positon for a trade down!

 

NFLTradeRumors.co‏ @nfltrade_rumors 2m2 minutes ago

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Mason Rudolph Visiting Bills, Has Met With Chargers, Saints, Giants, Steelers, Patriots & Bengals http://bit.ly/2IwWgRc

[JamesMadisonSkins]

11 minutes ago, skinsfan834 said:

I think its a bit of a pipe dream to think that the Pats will be moving up to our pick for two firsts. I think it's more likely they take the BPA at 23 and then Mason Rudolph at 31. 

I still think their guy is Kyle Lauletta, just fits the "bill" to a tee. If they're worried about someone grabbing him, they could always use their later 2nd round pick. But the issue with waiting to #31 for them is Mason Rudolph could very well be gone to either NO or PIT if Jackson goes earlier which I think is the case.

 

Read somewhere that Jackson is getting a lot more love internally among league scouts than the press is giving in their mock drafts. Which really does lead me to believe that Jackson goes somewhere between 5 and 11. Meaning the next best QB, Rudolph, could go as high as the Cardinals at 15, but likely to either NO/PIT/JAX ahead of the #31 pick by the Pats. If they want Rudolph, probably gotta get him at #23.

 

Pats are apparently enamored by Baker Mayfield and he fits their system to a tee. It might be hard for them to climb up too high to get him, but I can't see Baker falling past the Dolphins at #11.

 

Who knows, maybe the draft goes chalk. Giants take Chubb, Browns take Saquan, and QBs go 1&3 and Denver holds the keys with #5 whether to go Nelson or Rosen. But I just can't see only 2 QBs going in the top 5. Someone is going to trade up, whether it's with the GIants or Browns, OR both. The Pats and Bills aren't accumulating 1st round picks to not make a move on a QB. But I could be wrong. I'm just throwing together a for fun mock draft with these trade scenarios just to see where the chips fall and how it might impact Skins. I'll post it shortly. But I have to think as of right now the "trades" v. "chalk" direction of the draft has to favor trades.

[HigSkin]

 

[mistertim]

3 hours ago, fordranger76 said:

Serious question and I hope you guys can fill me in. With Payne and Vea. What tape is getting you guys excited about them? Is it highlights or the whole game film? Can you point me to the actual game film of those guys rather than just showing them at their best? Payne played the game of his career the last time he was on the field and has never had anything close to that to my knowledge. Vea shows flashes but also shows out of gas qualities. I guess what I want is someone to honestly compare those guys to Harrison Phillips and point out to me why that prospect does not usually get mentioned in the same breath. 

 

Is it school or name? I seriously want to understand what people are seeing so I can get on board with this thing because honestly fellas I am just not seeing it. 

 

It's a mystery to me regarding Payne. I think it is 100% pure hype. Maybe because he's a Bama guy and because he put in a career performance in the bowl game...probably had something to do with it. Good optics. His tape shows nothing special at all (in my completely amateur opinion). I've watched as many cutups of his games as I can find and most of the time (unless it's one where he's pointed out pre-snap) I have to go back and re-watch a play multiple times not just to watch what he did again but to actually find him since he rarely does anything of note. His statistics are atrocious and he'd have to absolutely buck the historical trend and be a complete outlier to become a top notch NFL DL guy with them.

 

Another weird thing is how Payne got a ton of praise for his combine performance and for being crazy athletic for his size...this just reinforces my belief that the hype machine has made a decision on him and is just sticking with it. There were only two measurables where he beat out Phillips...40 yard dash and broad jump and I couldn't possibly care less about 40 time for a NT; if your NT is chasing guys 40 yards from behind your defense has far bigger problems.

 

Harrison Phillips - 6'4 307:

40: 5.21 (no way will he be able to recover after being beat by a fast and shifty WR when in man coverage)

Bench: 42

Vertical: 32

Broad: 103

3 Cone: 7.28

20 Yd Shuttle: 4.5

 

Da'Ron Payne - 6'2 311:

40: 4.95

Bench: 27

Vertical: 28.5

Broad: 107

3 Cone: 7.58

20 Yd Shuttle: 4.71

 

So Payne will be better at chasing RBs down from behind on long runs, and that's about it. But yet we still hear about what a physical specimen he was for his size at the combine because....reasons. And it isn't like he's coming in at 25 lbs heavier or something like that...there's 4 lbs difference between them. It's all hype, unless there's something insane I'm completely missing. Yes, his tape does show him getting some pressures but he never finishes. Never seen a DPOY DL guy who got there because he had lots of pressures but few sacks. I want a closer. Coffee is for closers only.

 

As far as Vea, I can see the reason behind the hype a bit more. It's because he's an enormous guy who's very athletic for his size. Every single time one of those dudes comes out they get hyped up. It happens every single time, no matter what their film shows. IMO Vea's film shows nothing amazing but a really big guy with relatively poor technique who uses his size and athleticism almost exclusively and who takes plays off quite a bit. Any other guy like that would be labeled a workout warrior who's a physical specimen but with a huge bust potential in the 1st round. But because he's 345 lbs that gets ignored because everyone is hoping that this behemoth will be that hidden gem who can clog the middle as well as rush the passer, but in almost every single historical instance these guys get overdrafted and don't end up fulfilling those expectations.

 

The most amazing thing to me is how people who get paid huge sums of money to be able to scout these guys and see through the BS still seem to get caught up in hype machines and overdraft guys like Vea and Payne. Vea I could live with since he does have some hope if he can refine his technique and stop taking so many plays off...especially if we were able to trade down and still land him (unlikely given his hype). Payne IMO would be a complete numbskull move and would land us a pure JAG with a top 15 pick. It would be like if we drafted Ryan Anderson (who was overdrafted in the 2nd by us, IMO) at #13 overall. If they take him at 13 with other top talent available I'll just turn off my TV and find something else to do (probably drinking).

[skinsfan834]

15 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I still think their guy is Kyle Lauletta, just fits the "bill" to a tee. If they're worried about someone grabbing him, they could always use their later 2nd round pick. But the issue with waiting to #31 for them is Mason Rudolph could very well be gone to either NO or PIT if Jackson goes earlier which I think is the case.

 

Read somewhere that Jackson is getting a lot more love internally among league scouts than the press is giving in their mock drafts. Which really does lead me to believe that Jackson goes somewhere between 5 and 11. Meaning the next best QB, Rudolph, could go as high as the Cardinals at 15, but likely to either NO/PIT/JAX ahead of the #31 pick by the Pats. If they want Rudolph, probably gotta get him at #23.

 

Pats are apparently enamored by Baker Mayfield and he fits their system to a tee. It might be hard for them to climb up too high to get him, but I can't see Baker falling past the Dolphins at #11.

 

Who knows, maybe the draft goes chalk. Giants take Chubb, Browns take Saquan, and QBs go 1&3 and Denver holds the keys with #5 whether to go Nelson or Rosen. But I just can't see only 2 QBs going in the top 5. Someone is going to trade up, whether it's with the GIants or Browns, OR both. The Pats and Bills aren't accumulating 1st round picks to not make a move on a QB. But I could be wrong. I'm just throwing together a for fun mock draft with these trade scenarios just to see where the chips fall and how it might impact Skins. I'll post it shortly. But I have to think as of right now the "trades" v. "chalk" direction of the draft has to favor trades.

 

Speaking of the QB run that's likely to happen -- Vegas has number of QBs going in round 1 at O/U 5.5. Definitely take the over if you're a betting man! 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Here's my shot at a 1-round mock. I kept going into Round 2 and had the Skins land Billy Price at 41 and Tim Settle at 44

Ah, trades didn't paste in ... I had ..

*Buffalo trade 1.12, 2.22, 2.21 and 3.1 to NYG for 1.2

*New England trade 1.23, 1.31 and 2.9 to Cleveland for 1.4

*Arizona sent 1.15 and 2.15 to San Francisco for 1.9

*Cleveland sent 1.23 and 2.9 to Washington for 1.13

*Tennessee sent 1.25 and 3.25 to Dallas for 1.19

 

As you can see, I've got 5 QBs in the Top 9 and the 6th QB going in the late-1st. Now, this is the mock that has the *Hype of all trade-ups for QBs. NE may not make that leap. I'm sure Buffalo might, but it could be to #4 with Cleveland rather than #2 with NY. Giants could stand pat and take Chubb or Nelson ... and if I had to guess right now I'd say there's a 50% chance they trade and a 50% chance they stand pat and take one of those 2. If they stand pat, I'd say there's a 75% Cleveland trades out of #4, with a  sneaky chance that they take Chubb at #4.

 

Round 1	Team	Pick
Pick 1	Cleveland (1)	Sam Darnold, QB USC
Pick 2	*Buffalo	Josh Allen, QB Wyoming
Pick 3	NY Jets	Josh Rosen, QB UCLA
Pick 4	*New England	Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma
Pick 5	Denver	Quenton Nelson, OG Notre Dame
Pick 6	Indianapolis	Bradley Chubb, DE NC State
Pick 7	Tampa Bay	Saquan Barkley, RB Penn State
Pick 8	Chicago	Minkah Fitzpatrick, FS Alabama
Pick 9	*Arizona	Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville
Pick 10	Oakland	Roquan Smith, ILB Georgia
Pick 11	Miami	Tremaine Edmunds, LB Va. Tech
Pick 12	*NY Giants (1)	Harold Landry, OLB Boston College
Pick 13	*Cleveland (2)	Maurice Hurst, DT Michigan
Pick 14	Green Bay	Derwin James, S Florida State
Pick 15	*San Francisco	Calvin Ridley, WR Alabama
Pick 16	Baltimore	DJ Moore, WR Maryland
Pick 17	LA Chargers	Vita Vea, NT Washington
Pick 18	Seattle	Denzel Ward, CB Ohio State
Pick 19	*Tennessee	Marcus Davenport, Edge UTSA
Pick 20	Detroit	Da'Ron Payne, DT Alabama
Pick 21	Cincinnati	Isaiah Wynn, G/C/T Georgia
Pick 22	*NY Giants (2)	James Daniels, G/C Iowa
Pick 23	*Washington	Derrius Guice, RB LSU
Pick 24	Carolina	Josh Jackson, CB Iowa
Pick 25	*Dallas	Rashaan Evans, ILB Alabama
Pick 26	Atlanta	Harrison Phillips, DT Stanford
Pick 27	New Orleans	Mason Rudolph, QB Oklahoma State
Pick 28	Pittsburgh	Justin Reid, S Stanford
Pick 29	Jacksonville	Courtland Sutton, WR SMU
Pick 30	Minnesota	Will Hernandez, OG UTEP
Pick 31	*Cleveland (3)	Mike McGlinchey, OT Notre Dame
Pick 32	Philadelphia	Orlando Brown, OT Oklahoma

[mistertim]

I'd be ecstatic (and insanely surprised) if Guice falls to 23.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

I'd be ecstatic (and insanely surprised) if Guice falls to 23.

Yeah, works out in that scenario I guess. I would still fear Baltimore, Seattle, Detroit and NYG in that scenario all interested in him.

[mhd24]

Assuming Fitzpatrick, Ward, or James are not 13, what 23+31+#95 for 13+44+163?

 

Pats could move up to get a much needed left tackle (they have their choice at 13), while we could snag Guice at 23 and Price at 31?

 

Take defenders for the rest of the draft.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Someone COULD fall. I'm starting to think the Top 11 will include 5 QBs, but all of the studs should go. I think Edmunds could fall, since he's the most raw, least "sure" of the blue-chippers.

 

1. Browns - Sam Darnold

2. Giants - Bradley Chubb

3. Jets - Josh Allen

4. Buffalo - Josh Rosen

5. Denver - Quenton Nelson

6. Miami - Baker Mayfield

7. Tampa - Saquan Barkley

8. Chicago - Minkah Fitzpatrick

9. Arizona - Lamar Jackson

10. Oakland - Roquan Smith

11. Indianapolis - Derwin James

12. Cleveland - Maurice Hurst or Mike McGlinchey

13. Washington - Edmunds/Vea/Guice/Ward BPA

 

But if there aren't more than 1 crazy trade-up, I'd think:

1. Browns - Darnold

2. Bills - Allen

3. Jets - Rosen

4. Browns - Chubb

5. Denver - Nelson

6. Indianapolis - Barkley

7. Bucs - Fitzpatrick

8. Chicago - Derwin James

9. San Francisco - Tremaine Edmunds

10. Oakland - Smith

11. Miami - Mayfield

12. Giants - Landry/Davenport

13. Washington - Vea/Guice/Ward BPA

 

I just have a really hard time seeing James or Fitz fall to 13 ... and the only case I could see it be close to likely is if Jackson is the 5th QB to go before us, and pushes one of them down.

 

[Warhead36]

People overrate trading down. It sounds great in theory but you often pass up on premier talent just to get a few good players(if even that). In 08 we traded down and passed up on D Jax and Jordy Nelson for the trio that shall not be named. In 11 we traded down and while we got Kerrigan who is a good player, we passed on JJ Watt.

 

If someone like Derwin James is there at 13 and we trade down, we may end up having passed on the next Ed Reed for another B level player. This team needs impact, game changing young talent across the board. You don't pass up on that for an extra 3rd or 4th round pick which 90% of the time are just backups at best.

[HTTRDynasty]

3 hours ago, mistertim said:

 Yes, his tape does show him getting some pressures but he never finishes. Never seen a DPOY DL guy who got there because he had lots of pressures but few sacks. I want a closer. Coffee is for closers only.

 

I agree with most of this post.  And I know you're talking specifically about Payne here, but in general, I would take pressures from my NT all day every day.  Pressures coming directly from the interior are more valuable than pressure from the edge IMO, as interior pressure tends to lead to inaccurate throw and INTs from most QBs (pocket QB's in particular, like Kirk). 

 

Speaking specifically about our defense, if we could get consistent interior pressure, our front would be a nightmare for QBs to go against.  We were already top 2 in the league by any measure last year when it came to pressures, and that was without Jonathan Allen for the majority of the year.  If we can add an NT that can generate interior pressure?  Sign me up.

 

 

[HigSkin]

 

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

I would offer a 4th round pick in this years draft or a 3rd in next years draft for Jordan Howard. See if it fly’s. Think it would be the perfect complement to CT, is the bruiser Jay mentioned wanting. He’s 23 yrs old 6’1 225lbs, and can light it up. Would most fans be happy with him as our starting RB?

I would, just my Opinion. If we can make it happen I’d be all over it.

[Why am I Mr. Pink?]

4 minutes ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

I would offer a 4th round pick in this years draft or a 3rd in next years draft for Jordan Howard. See if it fly’s. Think it would be the perfect complement to CT, is the bruiser Jay mentioned wanting. He’s 23 yrs old 6’1 225lbs, and can light it up. Would most fans be happy with him as our starting RB?

I would, just my Opinion. If we can make it happen I’d be all over it.

 

If it means we dont go RB in the 1st, then yes. 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

John Keim‏Verified account @john_keim 3m3 minutes ago

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John Keim Retweeted Curt Kuzinz

Or trade up in second. Have some draft capital in 2019 with expected comp picks.

John Keim added,

 

 

Curt Kuzinz‏ @CKuzinz

FollowFollow @CKuzinz

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Curt Kuzinz Retweeted John Keim

This is really interesting to me, I think the Skins are going to try their hardest to trade back and land Guice or Jones.

Curt Kuzinz added,

John KeimVerified account @john_keim

Southern Cal running back Ronald Jones will visit the Redskins on Monday, per source. Redskins president Bruce Allen attended a makeup pro day for Jones Thursday. Allen also had dinner with LSU running back Derrius Guice the night before his pro day.... http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-40019012-4 …

1:08 PM - 6 Apr 2018

[HardcoreZorn]

Have a hunch Bruce is going to go all out trying to trade back into the first for a back. And can’t say I would hate it. If we somehow signed Hankins, drafted Fitzpatrick and then traded back up for a Guice/Jones id be pretty stoked. Wouldn’t even really care what the rest of the draft looked like at that point.