2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[Anselmheifer]

Some people have brought up Payne's age, but I think it has been under-emphasized. He's just 20 years old and looked best in the bowl games at the end of this season. I think he probably has untapped upside. I think if played another year of college ball, he may have been a top 10 pick. 

[Darth Tater]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Seems like Keim is putting out a billboard (he's said what he said below now multiple times) their board is

 

1. Fitzpatrick

2. D. James

3. Vea

4.  If they aren't there trade down -- and maybe get Guice

 

John Keim‏Verified account @john_keim 2h2 hours ago

More

John Keim Retweeted NFL Network

Believe if Minkah and then Derwin aren't there then Vea would be the guy. We shall see.

 

 

 

The more I study it, I think Fitz, Derwin or maybe even Ward are my top 3.  Nelson also looks attractive.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I don't think our "hole" at NT is as big as people think, to be honest. Before we lost Allen and The Greek was basically playing with only one hand, our defense was looking pretty legit. There seems to be this belief that if we just had a 345 lb behemoth we'd suddenly be good at stopping the run but IMO that's a bit simplistic.

 

Another issue I have with the whole "let's get the enormous NT hole plugger" theory is that it doesn't really fit in with the type of 3-4 we generally run. If we ran a more old school 2 gap 3-4 as our base then yeah I could see it since there your D linemen are almost purely to swallow up blockers so your LBs can flow downhill and make plays. But we generally run more of a 1 gap 3-4 Under scheme where the D linemen are meant to penetrate and do more than just soak up blockers. So there you tend to have a NT who is still big but more agile, quicker, and adept at shooting gaps. Sure, some people think Vea can do that but I haven't seen him do it consistently (his TFL numbers seem to agree) and when he does it tends to be with sloppy technique IMO.

 

I definitely do think Hankins fits our scheme so I agree with you there and really hope we can bring him in.

 

I've been slowly watching games from this past season starting with the Allen games.  Allen just about exclusively in the games I've watched so far played Right-DE.  Ionnaidis typically played Left-DE.  Ziggy Hood thus far almost exclusively played 0 or 1 -- playing 1 he typically shaded to the left.  McGee played mostly L-DE, it looks on run downs at times.  McClain subbed for Allen at R DE to give him a breather.  Allen was on the field a lot.  Hood, too. 

 

Allen would play 2/3 technique or 4/5, Ionnaidis, too.  I haven't watched Lanier, yet.  But I heard he was a major lability against the run. 

Again, its a small sample on my end, I plan to watch more but from what I watched thus far they rotated enough where every guy was relevant at different points in the game.  I saw a rotation for example with McGee, Hood and McClain with Ionnadis and Allen on the bench. 

 

I agree that the nose isn't the fix all because they also need another 3 technique especially in nickel.  Right now you can put for example Lanier in pass rushing situations but he's a liability against the run.  It would help a lot to have an Allen type who is useful in nickel because he can also stop the run if the opposing offense tries to exploit the nickel defense.   That's why as I mentioned here, I'd be ok with Hurst as a choice in this draft.  Reputation wise, he can do both well.  Same reason why I liked Richardson as a possibility in FA.

 

In nickel/in long distance yardage plays (8 yards plus) from what I noticed thus far (especially 3rd down), they often don't play anyone at nose.  They have the DE's play 4-5 technique.  The edge rushers play wide.   And they creep the MLBs up some to hold the A gap if needed and then they backpeddle. 

 

Statistically speaking though, they get gashed either way.  They get gashed on the ground in nickel and in base.  And I know it sounds simplistic but in base if you put a run stopping beast up the middle who can push the pocket (versus Hood who is just a guy) with Allen on the right and Ionnaidis on the left -- now you are cooking.  But I do think they need a 3-5 technique type guy, too.  And maybe even more so since they mostly play nickel.

 

And i am not one of the Vea or bust people here.  He's not my top choice by a long shot at 13.    It was hard for me to not to notice also that even though Swearinger was billed as the guy who is going to play free safety -- he was mostly playing strong when Nicholson was in the line up.  they played most cover 1 or cover 3 with Nicholson out there on his own manning the deep part of the field and you can see how his range is so vital sort of like how we used to play Sean Taylor.

 

My point on that is if Nicholson is so much our new Jordan Reed where the defense is dependent on him -- it makes a guy like Fitzpatrick IMO interesting because he has the range to play free safety single high if needed and if not he plays nickel.  He's be a useful safety net among other things IMO.  That's just my very amateur take from having fun watching some coaches film.

 

 

[cakmoney61]

29 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Seems like Keim is putting out a billboard (he's said what he said below now multiple times) their board is

 

1. Fitzpatrick

2. D. James

3. Vea

4.  If they aren't there trade down -- and maybe get Guice

 

John Keim‏Verified account @john_keim 2h2 hours ago

More

John Keim Retweeted NFL Network

Believe if Minkah and then Derwin aren't there then Vea would be the guy. We shall see.

 

 

 

I'm starting to have my doubts about Vea.  With all the criticism about inconsistent effort and not being a 3-down DT, I'm not seeing him as a can't-miss prospect.  The Redskins must pick a can't-miss prospect in the first round regardless of need.  Guice may be that guy.  Trade back far enough to get a third-round pick then draft him.  If possible, get your DT and OG (regardless of order) with the next two picks.  Get at least a TE, WR, and CB with the remaining picks.

 

Hit on the first three picks, and the Redskins will contend for a playoff spot this year. 

[HTTRDynasty]

Thinking about this defense with Hankins and Fitzpatrick out there gets me so hyped.

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, actorguy1 said:

My ideal draft scenarios 

1. Trade back to late teens gain 3rd rounder and still have choice between Payne Vea and Guice. 

2. Nelson or Barkley fall to 13 and we draft one

3. Fitzpatrick and/or James fall to 13 and we draft one

 

1. I'd be fine with a trade back but if we do and Guice is there and we take Payne or Vea I'm likely going to throw my TV out the window and then stomp on it a hundred times.

2. Only way I see Barkley falling to 13 is if he's suddenly caught on camera beating up a 5 year old and stealing his bike or headbutting a nun and taking her donation jar. Nelson I dunno...it's more plausible than Barkley. If he's there at 13 that would be a steal. We'd have a pretty beastly OL.

3. I'd take either of those guys if given the chance.

[Koolblue13]

Nelson is clearly the best player in the draft, so if he's there you have to take him.

 

Fitz is my clear number one and I wish  people would stop saying he might drop, because my hopes are sky high.

 

I'd rather take either LBer than either of the DTs and just find ways to get them on the field.

 

Guise wouldn't be my first pick at 13, but I wouldn't be upset. I think we're finally at the point of a RB being a major difference in the way the entire team can play.

 

James I would rather trade back. Ward would be good I guess.

[PlayAction]

29 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Statistically speaking though, they get gashed either way.  They get gashed on the ground in nickel and in base.  And I know it sounds simplistic but in base if you put a run stopping beast up the middle who can push the pocket (versus Hood who is just a guy) with Allen on the right and Ionnaidis on the left -- now you are cooking.  But I do think they need a 3-5 technique type guy, too.  And maybe even more so since they mostly play nickel.

 

I keep hearing that Hood is good but as a DE.  Lanier is still in the developmental stage - hopefully he will take as big as step up as Ionnaidis did last year.

[ksun247]

No love for Hurst at 13? His health condition is supposedly cleared up.

[HTTRDynasty]

27 minutes ago, ksun247 said:

No love for Hurst at 13? His health condition is supposedly cleared up.

 

That's my sleeper pick at 13.  I'd actually be pretty happy if this happened (if Fitz, James, and Ward weren't available and we couldn't trade back).

[mistertim]

THIS is the kind of NT you want in a 1 gap 3-4 Under front. Phillips is a beast and already very experienced at playing NT. Dude had 17 TFL in 2017 (that's one more than Jonathan Allen had in 2015, for reference), notched 7.5 sacks, 2 FF, and 98 total tackles. Those are usually LB tackle numbers....from a Nose Tackle. For comparison the other 1 gap 3-4 NT the Skins are apparently enamored with and considering taking at 13th overall (Payne) had a whopping 1 TFL, 1 sack, 0 FF, and 53 total tackles in 2017. 

 

 

[sjinhan]

Ok here is my wish list now...

 

First Round: if Derwin James, Ward, or Fitzpatrick drops to us then draft them at #13.  If they are not there then try to trade back because we can get either Payne or Guice later.

 

Second Round: Get a top Guard on the board (Wynn) if we got Guice in first if not then grab a RB here.

 

Fourth round:  many mocks have Tim Settle still on board so if we didn’t get a DT in the first then grab Settle here.

[Burgold]

I've been thinking about the chief NT complaint (which is that most Noses are two down players). On it's surface, I think the argument doesn't really hold water because in today's NFL DL substitution and rotation is the name of the game. There may be "three down players" but are there any D linemen who play every snap? Now, I get that what most people mean by 2 down is not really 2 down, but lack of pass rush skills, but I also question that. After all, the purpose of every player on the D, especially the D line, is not to get to the QB on every passing down. Sometimes, it's to nullify a guy or two so a linebacker or safety can squirt through. Wouldn't someone big and strong who can push the center back into the QBs face even if he doesn't have the speed or moves to get the QB be important?

 

Anywho, it seems to me in an NFL where you constantly rotate guys, getting someone who is good for two out of three downs is pretty good.

[fordranger76]

Serious question and I hope you guys can fill me in. With Payne and Vea. What tape is getting you guys excited about them? Is it highlights or the whole game film? Can you point me to the actual game film of those guys rather than just showing them at their best? Payne played the game of his career the last time he was on the field and has never had anything close to that to my knowledge. Vea shows flashes but also shows out of gas qualities. I guess what I want is someone to honestly compare those guys to Harrison Phillips and point out to me why that prospect does not usually get mentioned in the same breath. 

 

Is it school or name? I seriously want to understand what people are seeing so I can get on board with this thing because honestly fellas I am just not seeing it. 

[bedlamVR]

One thing i don't get - Everyone seems convinced the Giants are not taking a QB - I can kind of see them taking the approach - We need a QB in the next 2 years or so - We don't want to be picking this high again - If i was them I would go Josh Allen - Big Athletic QB who is no threat to start on day 1 - Or year one for that matter - The reason I want the Giants to take a QB is it pushes another none QB back - 

 

I would love Fitz to be the pick at 13 - I am suspicious about them saying that now - because this is smoke an mirror season but a real boon for the defence for years to come - I can see him being a jack of all trades kind of guy - a bit like Mr Cravens - but you know - a guy who actually likes football .. If not him and if we cannot trade back  I can see it being Guice - 

[HigSkin]

 

[Long n Left]

12 hours ago, cakmoney61 said:

I smell a trade back in order to recoup that third-round pick.

I'm hoping they can find a dance partner for this also.

[Skinsinparadise]

Yeah I am surprised at Ronald Jones' speed.  Between that and his slight frame, I am less interested in him now versus before.  Portis film review of him was one of his harshest.  When this started, Jones and Michel to me were neck and neck as my third favorite back.  Now I think I like Michel better.  Part of my fear for some of these rookie RBs is pass protection -- Jay typically doesn't seem comfortable putting in rookie RBs in right away for that reason.  Michel is a really good pass protector.

 

If their interest in Penny is real -- he arguably needs more pass protection work than anyone.  I haven't watched anything about Penny aside from highlights so I haven't watched him pass protect.  But I noticed the draft geeks think he's train wreck level bad as a pass protector right now.

[HigSkin]

 

[bowhunter]

7 hours ago, mistertim said:

THIS is the kind of NT you want in a 1 gap 3-4 Under front. Phillips is a beast and already very experienced at playing NT. Dude had 17 TFL in 2017 (that's one more than Jonathan Allen had in 2015, for reference), notched 7.5 sacks, 2 FF, and 98 total tackles. Those are usually LB tackle numbers....from a Nose Tackle. For comparison the other 1 gap 3-4 NT the Skins are apparently enamored with and considering taking at 13th overall (Payne) had a whopping 1 TFL, 1 sack, 0 FF, and 53 total tackles in 2017. 

 

 

I'd be very happy if Phillips was available for our 2nd rd pick. I could see him being much more productive than the Vea/Payne projections. 

[Long n Left]

If the Skins decide to wait on a DT/NT, I'm gonna throw my hat in on a guy who wasn't even invited to the combine. Said Guy then put up the following numbers at his pro day last week:

 

4.94 40 yard dash

24 bench press

29" vertical 

9' 3" broad jump

7.4 3-cone

 

This at 5' 11 5/8" 305 lbs. and with an 80+" wingspan.

 

Poona Ford was voted Big 12 defensive lineman of the year. He routinely took on double teams, had 8 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and a blocked field goal. Ford is generally considered a 4th-6th round pick. I think he would be excellent value in the 5th.

 

[Koolblue13]

Where's Billy Price slated to go?

[Anselmheifer]

4 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Where's Billy Price slated to go?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/23008441/nfl-two-round-2018-mock-draft-mel-kiper-todd-mcshay-dueling-first-second-round-pick-rankings-draft-order-32-picks

 

I was just wondering the same thing and looked it up. Looks like right around our 2nd round pick. Kiper/McShay had him picked at 51 and 46, repsectively. 

 

Can anyone else speak to Payne vs Harrison Phillips?

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/da'ron-payne?id=32462018-0002-5600-68ba-6b48873dba9b

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/harrison-phillips?id=32462018-0002-5600-691a-386214c1981a

 

Phillips had the better bench, 3 cone and vert. Payne had the better 40 and long jump. I love that Phillips has a wrestling background. Those guys tend to be so good with their hands. I people favor Payne because he is younger and looks like he has more innate athleticism. He may be perceived to have a higher ceiling. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

41 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Where's Billy Price slated to go?

Late first. Some have him early 2nd. The pec injury might drop hom further than expected.

[Why am I Mr. Pink?]

16 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Z. Brown is pretty bad in coverage.  But that's just a mental thing IMO.  I think he'll be better in his 2nd year knowing the system.  And yes, Smith is excellent in coverage.

 

I wasn't looking at it from a run vs. pass perspective though.  I'm looking at it from a stack-and-shed vs. best-in-space perspective.  Neither Zach Brown nor R. Smith are going to consistently win against OL trying to block them in the run game.  They are guys that are at their best when they have an ILB beside them who can take on OL blocks and keep them free to be heat-seeking missiles to go find the ball and make plays in space.  Having two guys who struggle to stack and shed playing at ILB is a recipe for disaster.  Especially in our division.

 

Oh gotcha. In that respect, yeah I think you are right. Havent watched a ton on Smith outside of 3-4 big Bama games but Cooley said he chooses to try and run around a blocker every single time and that wont cut it in the NFL. Brown also likes to try and avoid blockers and get in the back field. 

 

Good call. Mason Foster type does free up Brown more. Someone needs to eat up that extra blocker. 

 

Id stil be happy with Smith at 13 ... or 5 other guys at that spot as well. I think at 13, there still should be 1 or 2 tier 1 players available.