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Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

88Comrade2000

By 88Comrade2000
in The Tailgate

TK
Message added by TK,

 

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mistertim

mistertim

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, DCranon21 said:

 

 

If somehow Biden pulls off Georgia, NC, Ohio, and Texas, the election will be called way before California. I think he will take NC, Ohio, and Arizona. Texas is a long shot still IMHO. Also I still don't trust Nate Silver after the 2016 election. 

 

I wouldn't necessarily bet on Biden winningTexas but pretty much every poll there has him neck and neck with Trump. Remember, very liberal Beto only lost to Cruz by about 2.5%. Texas is trending towards blue in the near future. Recent voting history, exit polls, and demographic shifts all point to it.

 

As far as Nate Silver, IIRC FiveThirtyEight was one of the few who gave Trump better odds at winning.than most. Right near the end he had Hillary at about 70 some percent chance when most had her at 80-90%.

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88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

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You all know the election will not be decided on Election night.   You young ones are probably too young to remember 2000, that election wasn't settled for 36 days.  That was only due to the Supreme Court.

 

#1-   With Mail-in Ballots expected to increase this time around, it will take time to count them.  You've already seen how ****ed up that was during the primaries.  It could be week or longer before we know the final results.

#2-  Fully, expect Trump to challenge the results in several states.

 

I expecting 2020 to worse than 2000.  We could realistically see this thing not being settled when the Electors meet to vote.  You could have 2 different delegations being sent.  It will not shock me, to see Nancy Pelosi as acting President.  This thing could go beyond inauguration day. 

 

If you are expecting a nice bow and Biden to have this thing wrapped up election night; you will be disappointed.   Whatever could go wrong on election day for who left will be voting then, will go wrong.  I can see mail-in ballots mysteriously disappear. There's a reason Biden and Trump are hiring lots of lawyers.  

 

You better prepare your for post-election hell like you never seen.

 

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DCranon21

DCranon21

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I wouldn't necessarily bet on Biden winningTexas but pretty much every poll there has him neck and neck with Trump. Remember, very liberal Beto only lost to Cruz by about 2.5%. Texas is trending towards blue in the near future. Recent voting history, exit polls, and demographic shifts all point to it.

 

As far as Nate Silver, IIRC FiveThirtyEight was one of the few who gave Trump better odds at winning.than most. Right near the end he had Hillary at about 70 some percent chance when most had her at 80-90%.

 

If I remember, I think his formula did have Hillary winning like you said, but the polls were way off of the data he was using. I still look at the polls that they post, because I do believe they have a rating system(grade scale A through D) and let you know if the pollster is partisan or not. He now uses the national poll percentage, and updates the data daily. Currently he has Biden 50.1% Trump 41.9% (Biden +8.2) 

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hail2skins

hail2skins

Posted
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The right-leaning Trafalgar Group, who accurately picked PA, MI, WI as tilting for Trump before the 2016 election (IIRC, they didn't predict as well in the 2018 midterms) has the following state polls on their homepage:

 

Minnesota: Biden +5 (7/27)

Georgia: Trump +6.5 (7/6)

Florida: tie (7/4)

Wisconsin: Trump +1 (6/28)

Michigan: Biden +1 (6/22)

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PleaseBlitz

PleaseBlitz

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I think one takeaway from the Cook Political ratings is that Texas is not important.  What is important is that not only does Trump have to sweep the toss up states (and I think he loses AZ and NC), but he also has to win about half of the states that currently lean towards Biden.  That would be a huge turnaround in 3 months. 

29 minutes ago, DCranon21 said:

 

If I remember, I think his formula did have Hillary winning like you said, but the polls were way off of the data he was using. I still look at the polls that they post, because I do believe they have a rating system(grade scale A through D) and let you know if the pollster is partisan or not. He now uses the national poll percentage, and updates the data daily. Currently he has Biden 50.1% Trump 41.9% (Biden +8.2) 

 

Correct, Silver gave Trump a roughly 33% chance of winning the electoral college.  People were upset with him because they think 33% = 0% for some reason.  I remember the HuffingtonPost actually wrote an article saying 538 was skewing the polls to give Trump a better shot at winning, and its own forecast gave Clinton a 99% chance of winning.  https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_n_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

 

538 has been doing the national poll averages for a while, but they have not yet released their actual state-by-state election model yet.  

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Hersh

Hersh

Posted
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20 minutes ago, hail2skins said:

The right-leaning Trafalgar Group, who accurately picked PA, MI, WI as tilting for Trump before the 2016 election (IIRC, they didn't predict as well in the 2018 midterms) has the following state polls on their homepage:

 

Minnesota: Biden +5 (7/27)

Georgia: Trump +6.5 (7/6)

Florida: tie (7/4)

Wisconsin: Trump +1 (6/28)

Michigan: Biden +1 (6/22)


 

Wisconsin +1 Trump is laughable. There is no indication Trump has a chance there given 2018 and the primary/election of liberal state  Supreme Court justice over incumbent. 

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LadySkinsFan

LadySkinsFan

Posted
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11 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

Texas going blue in the future will be the sweetest karma for all the "LOL CA people fleeing to come to TX" trolling.  

 

Virginia turned Blue when I lived there. I now live in Texas and helping it turn Blue. And CA people relocating to Texas is a thing, and they aren't all GOPers.

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NoCalMike

NoCalMike

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, LadySkinsFan said:

 

Virginia turned Blue when I lived there. I now live in Texas and helping it turn Blue. And CA people relocating to Texas is a thing, and they aren't all GOPers.

 

Yeah I never got what was so "gotcha" about  Texas essentially bribing corporations to relocate there with lower or no taxes and less accountability to their workers and overall.

 

1. It is pretty much admitting none of these companies would want to be there if it wasn't for not having to pay taxes.

 

2. What kind of person brags about how great it is that huge corporations will not have to contribute to their local communities. 

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tshile

tshile

Posted
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Re:538 and 2016 polling

 

they put up a multi-article series that was analysis of the situation. 
 

if you haven’t read it you should. Silver goes to great lengths to show how the polling wasn’t what we thought it was, and how the media drove it to fit a narrative 

 

it’s a lot to read but it’s solidly supported and pretty revealing of what went on especially the last few months. 

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LadySkinsFan

LadySkinsFan

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

You need to move to more red states, to turn them blue.

 

I'm pretty much stuck here, although I did think about Arizona. My daughter and granddaughter live here so that is the biggest reason why I am here. I'm really homesick recently for home. I often think about winning the lottery and buying a house in my old neighborhood, Stratford Landing. However, I heard that you actually have to play the lottery to win!

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NoCalMike

NoCalMike

Posted
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The whole mail-in voter fraud ruse is the same as every other made up voting issue you've heard from the GOP.  Bottomline is their goal is have less votes cast & counted period. Trump and his team probably assume more of his base will scoff at mailing in their votes and show up to polls regardless of the pandemic, where as more Biden voters will tend to want to stay at home and vote from home via mail-in ballot so the plan is to disrupt that process as much as possible via disinformation campaigns, defunding the USPS to cripple their ability to handle the increased volumes coming their way etc etc etc..........

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