Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

[PleaseBlitz]

30 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

winning states in a presidential election is one thing but I can’t fathom some of those remaining states losing GOP control in their state house and senate that would be needed to vote on this, if I understand correctly 

 

This is all correct, I'm just saying that demographics and just public opinions change over time.  10 years ago, nobody could fathom Virginia being under Dem control in all aspects either.   In any event, if those changes in political alignment happen, the Interstate Compact won't matter anyways.  

43 minutes ago, mistertim said:

The best they could come up with against Biden is "He said all people are created equal, when the Constitution says 'All men are created equal'.."? Seriously?

 

This will play well with suburban women.

[mistertim]

If things keep going the way they are (Texas, NC, Florida trending towards going blue, etc) then EC vs Popular vote won't really matter for Republicans. Once they lose Texas, the GOP (as it currently is) will likely cease to be a relevant political party in presidential elections for quite some time and their Senate representation will likely move blue as well. 

 

And a bunch of that (or at least the acceleration of it) will be directly due to Trump and his enablers. Hope those conservative judges were worth it, Republicans. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

1 hour ago, China said:

 

Kanye West has already missed voter registration deadlines for presidential bid

 

He's missed the chance to appear on the ballot in six states. 

 

Click on the link for more

Meant to respond to this earlier. I would just point out that when your only goal is to swing a few million votes to help spoil an election. and you're one of the most famous people on the planet, I'm not sure not being on ballots is that big a hinderance. 

 

To be clear, I tend to think he won't have much of an impact on the election, but we can't be sure about that yet. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

 

[LadySkinsFan]

38 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Meant to respond to this earlier. I would just point out that when your only goal is to swing a few million votes to help spoil an election. and you're one of the most famous people on the planet, I'm not sure not being on ballots is that big a hinderance. 

 

To be clear, I tend to think he won't have much of an impact on the election, but we can't be sure about that yet. 

 

Trump probably asked Kanye to run as he would draw some black persons'votes from Biden. 

 

Have I said lately how much I despise Trump and most Republicans as human beings because they certainly don't function as such..

[Cooked Crack]

2 hours ago, clietas said:

MAGA prolly believes the Cristo Redentor is in Mississippi and ATIFA is on their way to demo it with C-4.

 

Here is Muricas version. Christ of the Ozarks. 🤦‍♂️

 

 

 

Marty Byrd at it again. Would have thought he'd be less obvious with the money laundering 

[Dont Taze Me Bro]

 

 

2 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

I mean, never is a long time.  NC and Texas are slowly but inevitably transitioning to blue state territory, a process that VA just completed.  If the GOP cleaves into 2 camps, "the Trump Base" and "Republicans who want reasonable governance" for an extended period of time, and Democrats don't overplay their hand, a window could open.  

 

I don't see NC as inevitably transitioning into a blue state.  They have voted blue overall in one presidential election (2008) in the past 10 presidential elections.  Now for governor, there have only been two republicans elected in the entire 20th century.  But the GOP controls NC and both our senators are republican and only 3 of our 13 reps are democrats.  

 

TBH, if Pat McCrory had not signed in HB2 (bathroom bill), he most likely defeats Roy Cooper in the last election and remains our governor.  He had a good lead over Cooper in the polls until that bill was passed.  Cost us tons of revenue and jobs long term.  Right now, Roy Cooper has a substantial lead over Dan Forrest for re-election.  

[Rufus T Firefly]

8 minutes ago, Dont Taze Me Bro said:

I don't see NC as inevitably transitioning into a blue state.  They have voted blue overall in one presidential election (2008) in the past 10 presidential elections.  Now for governor, there have only been two republicans elected in the entire 20th century.  But the GOP controls NC and both our senators are republican and only 3 of our 13 reps are democrats.  

 

TBH, if Pat McCrory had not signed in HB2 (bathroom bill), he most likely defeats Roy Cooper in the last election and remains our governor.  He had a good lead over Cooper in the polls until that bill was passed.  Cost us tons of revenue and jobs long term.  Right now, Roy Cooper has a substantial lead over Dan Forrest for re-election.  

I don't really expect NC to become "blue" anytime soon, though purple is likely. But some of the numbers you are posting here are highly misleading. 

 

The Republicans hold 10 of the 13 House seats, but that gap is entirely because of gerrymandering. In the last election, the GOP only won the statewide popular vote by about 2% of the total vote. And, in fact, that gap was largely (and maybe entirely) due to the Dems not running a candidate in one of the districts. The Republican statewide margin was around 75.000 votes, and the uncontested 3rd was won by the Republican with over 186,000 votes. While in the last offer election of 2014 (a much, much worse year for Democrats), the GOP won that district by  just over 73.000 votes. 

 

The Republicans hold the statehouse as well, but that is in spite of the Democrats winning the statewide popular vote by over 2.5%. Again, gerrymandering. 

 

Meanwhile, all the polling has Cooper headed towards an easy re-election and Thom Tillis behind in the Senate race. 

 

It is a state that is certainly trending heavily towards blue. 

[Jumbo]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

 

Hope those conservative judges were worth it, Republicans. 

 

 

as i said a few months back, if it goes the way of a major dem wave everywhere in 2020, i'm hopeful--fantasizing is likely most accurate--that some very creative minds will figure out ways to adjust/correct a lot of those appts somehow (legislatively; legally)

 

 

 

yes, i know, but i can still dream

 

[China]

Best be ready.

 

Opinion - How Trump Could Lose the Election—And Still Remain President

 

t is increasingly looking as if Joe Biden can beat President Donald Trump in November. The president seems more and more out of step with the national mood, from his handling of the pandemic to his response to racially biased policing, not to mention a wide array of other issues. Even in key swing states, Trump is losing ground that will be difficult for him to make up.

 

For Trump, there are two broad pathways to maintaining power. First, we can already see very clearly a strategy designed to suppress voter turnout with the purging of registration rolls of large numbers of mostly urban voters; efforts to suppress mail-in ballots, which are more necessary than ever, given COVID-19; a re-election apparatus that is training 50,000 poll watchers for the purpose of challenging citizens' right to vote on Election Day; and significant efforts to make in-person voting in urban areas as cumbersome as possible in order to have long lines that discourage people from exercising their voting rights.

 

The second pathway to subverting the election is even more ominous—but we must be cognizant of it because Trump is already laying the groundwork for how he can lose the popular vote, and even lose in the key swing states necessary for an Electoral College victory, but still remain president.

 

Something like the following scenario is not just possible but increasingly probable because it is clear Trump will do anything to avoid the moniker he hates more than any other: "loser."

 

Click on the link for the full scenario

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, LadySkinsFan said:

 

Trump probably asked Kanye to run as he would draw some black persons'votes from Biden. 

 

Have I said lately how much I despise Trump and most Republicans as human beings because they certainly don't function as such..

 

Christ. Can you imagine if Donald Trump got re-elected because Kanye West entered the presidential race and took some of the black vote from the Dem candidate? No comedy or satire film writer could possibly have come up with such an absurd scenario 10 years ago. Their script would have been tossed in the trash as too far fetched.

 

14 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

 

 

as i said a few months back, if it goes the way of a major dem wave everywhere in 2020, i'm hopeful--fantasizing is likely most accurate--that some very creative minds will figure out ways to adjust/correct a lot of those appts somehow (legislatively; legally)

 

 

 

yes, i know, but i can still dream

 

 

I'm wondering if Biden is elected how much pressure will be put on him to try and add additional Justices to SCOTUS. It might be worth it just to see Republicans absolutely flip plum the **** out after they sold their souls to Trumpism to try and pack the court. 

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

[China]

On 6/19/2020 at 7:23 PM, Dan T. said:

 

Haven't updated it or posted in a while.  I added Bunker Baby Trump, Bunker King, and UV Don to the list.

 

Here you go...

 

Donald Trump,

- Pumpkin-flavored arsenic marshmallow

- rancid bag of half melted circus peanuts

- Ambulatory merkin

- rotting pumpkin time-lapse

- Rancid salmon filet

- a toupee someone found in a garbage can and stapled to a sweet potato

- Poorly trained circus orangutan

- Flopped over traffic cone

- Pencil-dick wall builder

- Sentient used car commercial

- Rejected holiday carrot cake

- Deranged moldy grapefruit

- Room temperature Sunny-D backwash

- Enraged over-ripe pineapple

 

 

LIST EDITED FOR BREVITY

 

Going through your list, you seemed to have missed a few...

 

For example:

 

Agent Orange

Angry Creamsicle

Bratman

Cadet Bone Spurs

Captain Chaos

Creep Throat

Prima Donald

Hair Furher

Screaming Carrot Demon

Tangerine Tornado

Trumplethinskin

 

(note:  I see you have Cheeto Mussolini, but I prefer Mango Mussolini as it has a better alliterative roll off the tongue)

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

49 minutes ago, China said:

 

(note:  I see you have Cheeto Mussolini, but I prefer Mango Mussolini as it has a better alliterative roll off the tongue)

 

Mine has always been Benito MushroomWeenie

[Voice_of_Reason]

8 hours ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

that ruling opens the door for the constitutional workaround though (can’t think of the name off top of my head) where states submit their electoral vote based on the popular vote winner. I think they only need like 8 more states to sign onto this and they will have the 270 limit making every election a popular vote election. 
 

of course if this happened republicans would sue everyone in sight so who knows 

I actually am not sure the GOP wouldn't be without an argument. 

 

One thing I think the states can do right now if they want to, and 2 already do, is assign the electoral votes by congressional district instead of winner take all, which would get closer to a popular vote. You would definitely have a completely different election map, and specific counties, not states, would become tossups.  Or they could assign the electors proportionally by state.  Either of those would be a step in the direction of a popular vote. 

 

Though either would have to be basically all-in change, where all states have to do it.  Because if, for example, California did it, and Texas didn't, the GOP wins 100% of the time, because they would get the benefit of the proportion in the democratic states, but not give up the benefit of the winner take all from the red states.  But if all the states do it, it works.  

 

7 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Right, it would become operational at 270 EC votes.  Right now it has 196 (although Colorado is going to have a statewide referendum to decide if they will remain a party to it), so they need 74 more.  The number of states needed depends on which states.  Virginia and Nevada look like the next most likely signees, which would bring the total to 215.  After that it looks pretty dicey to add anyone else.  

This has no legs because there's no way you can get to 270 electoral votes committed.  Just aint going to happen, at least not soon.  

6 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

For the record, even 270toWin has Biden ahead by 4.8% in Florida. And its that close because of the Trafalgar poll, a c minus rated Republican polling outfit that has the state tied. 

 

Looking at the Florida polls, it literally seems like the better a reputation a pollster has, the more they have Biden ahead by. 

I thought I looked yesterday and it was tied at 46%.  Maybe I mis-read it.  Because I just checked it, and you're right.  

 

Nobody tell Biden's campaign this.  Or anybody in Florida. 

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

6 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

his is all correct, I'm just saying that demographics and just public opinions change over time.  10 years ago, nobody could fathom Virginia being under Dem control in all aspects either.   In any event, if those changes in political alignment happen, the Interstate Compact won't matter anyways.  

That's not entirely true about Virginia and 10 years ago.  Go back 20-30 years?  Yeah.  But VA had the first African American governor in the sourth in Douglas Wilder, and has had a slew of democratic governors in the last 30 years, as well as a mixed senate contingents as well.  The writing was on the wall a long time ago, though it really picked up steam in the last decade. 

 

I think we're splitting hairs here.  But I've been watching this pretty carefully for the last 40 years.

 

EDIT: Chnaged Gene Wilder to Douglas Wilder because I'm a ****ing moron.  

[visionary]

 

3 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

That's not entirely true about Virginia and 10 years ago.  Go back 20-30 years?  Yeah.  But VA had the first African American governor in the sourth in Gene Wilder

Wow.  Ya learn something new every day.   😜

[PleaseBlitz]

2 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

But VA had the first African American governor in the sourth in Gene Wilder

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 hours ago, Jumbo said:

 

 

as i said a few months back, if it goes the way of a major dem wave everywhere in 2020, i'm hopeful--fantasizing is likely most accurate--that some very creative minds will figure out ways to adjust/correct a lot of those appts somehow (legislatively; legally)

 

 

 

yes, i know, but i can still dream

 

One thing to keep in mind, at least for the SCOTUS, even the judges Trump have nominated have failed him.  SOME of the justices, while conservative in nature, actually do interpret the law in a reasonable way.  

5 minutes ago, visionary said:

Wow.  Ya learn something new every day.   😜

I'm an idiot.  I changed it to Douglas Wilder.  

2 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Yeah, oops.  

[Rufus T Firefly]

I thought Richard Pryor was the black one.

[mistertim]

Whew. I almost freaked out there for a second thinking we had Gene Wilder as governor and I somehow missed such a magnificent period of time in Virginia's history.   

 

6 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

I thought Richard Pryor was the black one.

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Please everybody, have fun with that brain fart.  I deserve every bit of it. 

 

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

Gene Wilder has done blackface.

#silverstreak

 

[spjunkies]

No wonder he was mistaken as a former Virginia governor. 

[hail2skins]

Professor predicts Trump has a 91 percent chance of reelection. Four more years, baby!

 

https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/07/06/electoral-model-trump-91-chance-winning/

 

Seriously, how is a "primary model" relevant in years when an incumbent is running basically unchallenged?