mistertim Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 43 minutes ago, hail2skins said: Professor predicts Trump has a 91 percent chance of reelection. Four more years, baby! https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/07/06/electoral-model-trump-91-chance-winning/ Seriously, how is a "primary model" relevant in years when an incumbent is running basically unchallenged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 What um...is the messaging here?: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 18 minutes ago, visionary said: What um...is the messaging here?: They look like two dudes at urinals trying desperately not to look at each others' dicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 True, but I'm more curious about their promoting manifest destiny in the ad. Are they implying we're going to slaughter natives and attack Latin American countries soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, visionary said: True, but I'm more curious about their promoting manifest destiny in the ad. Are they implying we're going to slaughter natives and attack Latin American countries soon? Implying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, visionary said: True, but I'm more curious about their promoting manifest destiny in the ad. Are they implying we're going to slaughter natives and attack Latin American countries soon? Yeah that's pretty random/weird. At this point it seems like their entire campaign plan consists of "Find all of the worst parts of American history and promote them hard as hell". Are they going to start pushing for SCOTUS to revisit Dred Scott next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voice_of_Reason Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 6 hours ago, mistertim said: Yeah that's pretty random/weird. At this point it seems like their entire campaign plan consists of "Find all of the worst parts of American history and promote them hard as hell". Are they going to start pushing for SCOTUS to revisit Dred Scott next? Remember when George W. Bush brought up Dres Scott during a debate and everybody was like, “huh? Apple from the random tree?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 This is a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 8 hours ago, visionary said: True, but I'm more curious about their promoting manifest destiny in the ad. Are they implying we're going to slaughter natives and attack Latin American countries soon? No doubt in my mind a re-elected Trump would eventually invade countries. If he took Greenland right now, what could Denmark do about it? Canada would be backed in a corner and Mexico a sitting duck during a cartel counter-terrorism campaign. I really think hes jus throwing **** at the wall and see what sticks, but Russia and China both trying to do incremental tactical expansions, so if Trump truly idolizes them he'll likely do the same at some point if re-elected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhead36 Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 2 hours ago, Renegade7 said: No doubt in my mind a re-elected Trump would eventually invade countries. If he took Greenland right now, what could Denmark do about it? Canada would be backed in a corner and Mexico a sitting duck during a cartel counter-terrorism campaign. I really think hes jus throwing **** at the wall and see what sticks, but Russia and China both trying to do incremental tactical expansions, so if Trump truly idolizes them he'll likely do the same at some point if re-elected. My fear/prediction is that if he loses(or looks like he will surely lose)re-election in November, he'll do something crazy like declare war on Iran to ensure he stays in office and try something like indefinite postponing of the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said: My fear/prediction is that if he loses(or looks like he will surely lose)re-election in November, he'll do something crazy like declare war on Iran to ensure he stays in office and try something like indefinite postponing of the election. No election automatically makes Pelosi the President end of his 1st term. I think hes already lost the military. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 3 hours ago, @SkinsGoldPants said: This is a good one. The others are more ambiguous, in some ways, but I think this one really highlights that the Lincoln Project (at least right now) really does have a target audience of one. Imagine living in a world where a group of people spends millions of dollars to buy ads for ONE person. The thing is, I think it's a good strategy. He can't help but respond to things like this, and every time he does he looks a little worse, if that's possible. I'd imagine it also keeps him from focusing on anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 29 minutes ago, Warhead36 said: My fear/prediction is that if he loses(or looks like he will surely lose)re-election in November, he'll do something crazy like declare war on Iran to ensure he stays in office and try something like indefinite postponing of the election. He might try it, but it's going to be one hell of a hard sell, especially if he loses by a lot. I think what will happen if he loses is he'll scream right and left about fraud and that he actually won (just so he can convince himself that he actually won and Biden cheated), he'll make vague threats about a national emergency or "investigations" into the election that could delay the EC count beyond Dec 14th. But in the end he'll leave, and for the rest of his days he'll be 100% positive that he really won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momma There Goes That Man Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, techboy said: The others are more ambiguous, in some ways, but I think this one really highlights that the Lincoln Project (at least right now) really does have a target audience of one. Imagine living in a world where a group of people spends millions of dollars to buy ads for ONE person. The thing is, I think it's a good strategy. He can't help but respond to things like this, and every time he does he looks a little worse, if that's possible. I'd imagine it also keeps him from focusing on anything else. Their ads also drive media narratives so they get more impact even though they are targeting Trump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said: Their ads also drive media narratives so they get more impact even though they are targeting Trump I agree, and their viral nature goes a long way on the internet as well. But look at that last ad. While it might be cathartic for people frustrated by Trump, I don't know that anyone would actually be swayed by it, unlike perhaps some of the others that make reference to his failures as President or his poor qualities as a leader/person. That one's clearly designed to get under his skin, and pretty much nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted July 7, 2020 Author Share Posted July 7, 2020 30 minutes ago, mistertim said: He might try it, but it's going to be one hell of a hard sell, especially if he loses by a lot. I think what will happen if he loses is he'll scream right and left about fraud and that he actually won (just so he can convince himself that he actually won and Biden cheated), he'll make vague threats about a national emergency or "investigations" into the election that could delay the EC count beyond Dec 14th. But in the end he'll leave, and for the rest of his days he'll be 100% positive that he really won. I think he will try for a military conflict somewhere in October. I think if the electoral college isn't decided or in dispute by Dec. 14- the EC count date; then the dispute goes into the house. The vote goes by state. So, if the GOP has the majority of House delegations per state; Trump gets in. I think Trump will challenge everything but I think by the EC date, he will just resign and let Pence finish out the term. I fully expect a flurry or pardons for Trump and his cronies before he leaves though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 OK ad, good topic to hit on, but the attempts at humor are a clunky, at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, techboy said: I agree, and their viral nature goes a long way on the internet as well. But look at that last ad. While it might be cathartic for people frustrated by Trump, I don't know that anyone would actually be swayed by it, unlike perhaps some of the others that make reference to his failures as President or his poor qualities as a leader/person. That one's clearly designed to get under his skin, and pretty much nothing else. This one in particular is definitely aimed at Trump for the purpose of creating more strife within his inner circle. The Lincoln Project, based on this ad and several others, clearly have a hard on for getting Brad Parscale fired. See, e.g., https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYpTJTngXE8 That said, the Lincoln Project has made A LOT of ads, and some are clearly targeting specific swing voters or simply trying to define Trump as weak and unable to lead. They've even made some ads for state races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted July 7, 2020 Author Share Posted July 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said: I think he will try for a military conflict somewhere in October. I think if the electoral college isn't decided or in dispute by Dec. 14- the EC count date; then the dispute goes into the house. The vote goes by state. So, if the GOP has the majority of House delegations per state; Trump gets in. I think Trump will challenge everything but I think by the EC date, he will just resign and let Pence finish out the term. I fully expect a flurry or pardons for Trump and his cronies before he leaves though. I think it would only go to the House if no candidate got 270 EC votes, which would likely only happen if it's a close election. So yeah in that case Trump could potentially cry foreign interference and that they have evidence (which they can't show you), declare a national emergency, have Barr say the EC can't be counted until their "investigation" is done which will go well past Dec 14th, Dems sue, SCOTUS sides with Republicans and says EC must be counted by Dec 14th no matter what, EC is counted and since a few states are left out neither candidate gets 270, then it goes to the House where (you're right) they would cast the votes for Trump based on state delegations. That would be an absolute nightmare. I can't see that happening without violence erupting in the streets in a huge way. They think there's rioting NOW? See what happens if he tries to pull that ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LadySkinsFan Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Regardless of how much golf he "plays/cheats", the stress levels must be off the chart. We'll see something before the election, he'll disappear from sight for a bit, his appearance at rallys will be very short, someone else will start appearing for him because he's "busy working" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 I often wonder this about Trump supporters- are they actually proud to vote for someone who thinks they are all so ludicrously stupid that they will believe nonsense like this? I mean, think about it. Obviously no one on the left or even the middle is going to buy this. Everyone in government, politics, media, etc. knows it's crap. He has to make a decision like this based on thinking- "you know what? The brain-dead troglodytes who vote for me will be stupid enough to swallow this garbage." I just can't imagine having so little self-respect that I would support someone who was constantly telling me how utterly moronic he thought I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Again, cult mentality. The leader has to constantly come out with ever more ridiculous stuff, and send the members out to defend it. The more outrageous, the better. In this way, the members are obligated to debase themselves and become complicit. And the bond grows tighter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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