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Welcome to the Redskins Josh Doctson WR TCU

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Wildbunny

Wildbunny

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One thing I'm really looking forward to is in 2-3 years when each time we play the Giants we get 1st and goal on the 1 about three times a game because Eli Apple interferes with Doctson in the end zone to try and keep him from leaping 12 feet off the ground and catching a TD at a height that Apple can't even reach.

 

I still don't get the fact the Giants went with Apple instead of Hargreaves, really....

 

Now I believe that Doctson guy is even better than their OBJ guy...

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Burgold

Burgold

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I still don't get the fact the Giants went with Apple instead of Hargreaves, really....

 

Now I believe that Doctson guy is even better than their OBJ guy...

Uh oh... We're getting into Alan Greenspan territory. I smell a whiff of irrational exuberance.

 

Let the kid play a down first... or at least a May minicamp rep. ;)

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ncr2h

ncr2h

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Something I read on footballoutsiders has been bothering me.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/playmaker-score-2016

 


Josh Doctson, TCU

 

Playmaker Projection: 409 Yards

Playmaker Rating: 70.8%

 

Doctson's numbers are similar to Will Fuller's. However, there is one important difference between the two prospects: Fuller posted his numbers as a junior and enters the draft as an underclassman, while Doctson enters the draft as a senior. Senior wide receivers fail at a much greater rate than their junior counterparts. The four least productive wide receivers drafted in the first round from 1996-2013 were all seniors (A.J. Jenkins, Rashaun Woods, R. Jay Soward, and Marcus Nash), even though most of the first-round picks over this time period were underclassmen.

 

This seems to ring true based on a brief analysis I did earlier today.  Does anybody have any recent examples of senior WR prospects drafted in one of the top 2 rounds who ended up being Pro Bowl (or nearly Pro Bowl level) NFL WRs?  These are the only ones I can find:

 

Starting in the 2000 draft, here are all of the WRs who were drafted in rounds 1 or 2 as seniors and went on to either (a) go to at least 1 Pro Bowl, or (B) have a career AV (per profootballreference) among the top 30 of all WRs drafted in rounds 1/2 during that time (i.e. played at a near Pro Bowl level):

 

Reggie Wayne

Roddy White

Santana Moss

Greg Jennings

Chris Chambers

Dwayne Bowe

Lee Evans

Roy Williams

Braylon Edwards

Michael Floyd

Steve Smith (Giants WR)

 

There's only 1 player on that list who I think is likely to make the Hall of Fame.  Players on the above list have been to the Pro Bowl a combined 17 times.  On the other hand, the top 3 underclassmen WRs (by cumulative career AV) over that period (Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald) went to the Pro Bowl a combined 19 times, and the top 10 underclassmen WRs combined for 39 Pro Bowl appearances.

 

So it seems like Senior WRs are much less likely to make the Pro Bowl and are far more likely to be busts (if we take footballoutsiders' word for it - haven't done the research).  Essentially, it's like the NBA - the elite talent has already left college as underclassmen, so college seniors are essentially a self-selected group of guys with lower ceilings and higher likelihood of busting (with rare exceptions like Reggie Wayne and Roddy White).

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Wildbunny

Wildbunny

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Uh oh... We're getting into Alan Greenspan territory. I smell a whiff of irrational exuberance.

 

Let the kid play a down first... or at least a May minicamp rep. ;)

 

Not trying to go irrational or whatever...

That's Odell two years ago:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profiles/odell-beckham?id=2543496

That's Doctson:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/josh-doctson?id=2555343

 

If Beckham have some longer arms and hands (not by much though), Josh seems to have better athletics and isn't shy of physical corner (something we know OBJ hates). So I wouldn't rule this out.

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DC9

DC9

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Been saying it all year, best WR in the draft.

 

Exactly what we need with Garcon and Jackson in contract years.

 

All hail McCloughan.

 

We needed to do this.

 

I know we get scared of the "sexy" picks... but this had to be done.

 

Long-term view.

 

This offense is going to be a LOT of fun to watch this next year.  Hopefully we can all stay healthy.  Man, can you imagine?

 

Tons of good football players left in this draft.  I'm stoked for tonight.

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Bifflog

Bifflog

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So it seems like Senior WRs are much less likely to make the Pro Bowl and are far more likely to be busts (if we take footballoutsiders' word for it - haven't done the research).  Essentially, it's like the NBA - the elite talent has already left college as underclassmen, so college seniors are essentially a self-selected group of guys with lower ceilings and higher likelihood of busting (with rare exceptions like Reggie Wayne and Roddy White).

 

One would hope that whatever macro level trend hinders some senior WR's, can be deduced at the micro level on a individual basis by a skilled talent evaluator.  That's what I'm banking on, seems like they liked him a lot so we'll see.

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MEANDWARF

MEANDWARF

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Surprise by the pick, but not disappointed. 

My man crush Veron Butler was picked by the Panthers, but there are still some monster DLs available(maybe Chris Jones will still be on the board).

HTTR and still have trust in Scott!!

Welcome Mr. Doctson!!!!!!!

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sportjunkie07

sportjunkie07

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Never considered us taking a WR.

I've been seeing this a lot, and I don't quite understand the viewpoint because I had wr as our top need.

We haven't had an elite type of talent at wide receiver in so long and getting one is the best way to make the team better.

Plus with the impending shake up at wide reciever, the move really makes sense from a leverage point of view.

As far as examining Doctson.. this guy is going to be really good. His ability to make contested catches and the jumping ability stand out.

I'm not sure how Gruden plans to implement him this year (with djax, garcon, and crowder entrenched) but I suspect he'll work his way into the lineup because he possesses abilities that the above 3 lack. Jordan reed,Doctson, and Cousins are going to be a nightmare in the red zone.

And we gained a 6th rounder in the process.

I'm grading this an A-.

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Larry

Larry

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I'm not sure how Gruden plans to implement him this year (with djax, garcon, and crowder entrenched) but I suspect he'll work his way into the lineup because he possesses abilities that the above 3 lack.

Well, one thought that occurs to me, considering that what he seems to be famous for is being very grabby, is that he'll see the field as a specialist, on third and long and/or goal line situations.

Hopefully matched up against the other team's #3 or #4 defender, as a "move the chains" or "dumpoff" target.

(Something I feel we've needed, for some time, anyway.)

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Momma There Goes That Man

Momma There Goes That Man

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Well, one thought that occurs to me, considering that what he seems to be famous for is being very grabby, is that he'll see the field as a specialist, on third and long and/or goal line situations.

Hopefully matched up against the other team's #3 or #4 defender, as a "move the chains" or "dumpoff" target.

(Something I feel we've needed, for some time, anyway.)

I agree but this goes back to My point in the draft thread.

If this third and long, you obviously want DJax on the field to get the defense's attention and take the top off. You have to have Reed out there. Crowder earned his spot on the field here too and is a tough matchup out of the slot.

Then I'd rather have Doctson on the field over Garcon as the last receiving threat. (Assuming you keep a RB on the field for the screen game, out of the backfield option)

So I just don't understand the need for Garcon anymore especially at this price. You're just taking development away from Doctson by keeping Garcon on the field. Doctson and DJax is a far more threatening combo than DJax/Garcon or Doctson/Garcon

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PeterMP

PeterMP

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So it seems like Senior WRs are much less likely to make the Pro Bowl and are far more likely to be busts (if we take footballoutsiders' word for it - haven't done the research).  Essentially, it's like the NBA - the elite talent has already left college as underclassmen, so college seniors are essentially a self-selected group of guys with lower ceilings and higher likelihood of busting (with rare exceptions like Reggie Wayne and Roddy White).

 

And it is worse than that because he had to sit a year because he transferred schools.

 

Treadwell who was drafted right after him as a junior was born in 6-95.  Doctson was born in 12-92.  Doctson is easily further along his physical maturation process than Treadwell.

 

Now, I don't like Treadwell any better (it seems to me to play WR at a high level you have to be able to stretch the field some, and I don't think Treadwell can really do that on a consistent basis), and I don't think Doctson is a bust.  His leaping ability gives him a real plus skill, and he can catch the ball.  That combination I think means he has some value.

 

But I think we'll look back, and see there were some good players there still to be had.  This draft seems odd.  Too much pressure to get certain players (especially QB) forced some people that I think will be good players back.

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SkinsGuy

SkinsGuy

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I agree but this goes back to My point in the draft thread.

If this third and long, you obviously want DJax on the field to get the defense's attention and take the top off. You have to have Reed out there. Crowder earned his spot on the field here too and is a tough matchup out of the slot.

Then I'd rather have Doctson on the field over Garcon as the last receiving threat. (Assuming you keep a RB on the field for the screen game, out of the backfield option)

So I just don't understand the need for Garcon anymore especially at this price. You're just taking development away from Doctson by keeping Garcon on the field. Doctson and DJax is a far more threatening combo than DJax/Garcon or Doctson/Garcon

 

Haven't you ever heard of 4 WR sets? :P:)

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Boss_Hogg

Boss_Hogg

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Yes, very much so

 

Jay Gruden sees some of A.J. Green in Josh Doctson

 

Before he became the head coach of the Redskins, Jay Gruden was the offensive coordinator of the Bengals.

In that job, Gruden got to deploy A.J. Green at wide receiver and he feels like the team added a similar player to their offense in the first round on Thursday night. The Redskins dropped down one spot, adding a 2017 pick in the process, and then took wide receiver Josh Doctson with the 22nd pick. After the selection, Gruden said Doctson reminded him of his former Cincinnati charge.

“I think [Doctson’s] the most polished receiver of the group, personally,” Gruden said, via the Washington Post. “I think he can do a lot of different things across the middle. When the ball is in the air, he’s got the jumping ability. He’s got great hands. I think he’s got the best hands in the draft also. He’s a great pure route-runner. I graded him out very, very high. Our scouts had him graded out very high. [General Manager] Scot [McCloughan] loved him. We all loved him, obviously, based on his production. The game is not too big for him. He’s just a solid, all-around football player. Great body control, which you can’t coach that. The ball is in the air, he can twist all kind of different ways. It reminds me a lot of A.J. Green a couple years ago in Cincinnati.”

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/04/29/jay-gruden-sees-some-of-a-j-green-in-josh-doctson/

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MumboSauce

MumboSauce

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I was a little surprised by the pick at first, but I like it when you consider his talent, was best talent available on their board, and future cap/ losing Garcon or Djax next season.

 

 Man this young man can track the ball and use his body...he elevates(vertical) and gets it...great hands and catch radius as well. The more crisp route running will come. Welcome and Httr!

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goskins10

goskins10

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I don't know about 'fight for balls like no one we have seen' as Garcon fights for balls exactly like that.  Garcon is sure handed and an animal.  As far as the vertical leaping ability in the redzone or as a possession receiver, this incoming rookie will see some time on the field.  He's not going to break the big one, but will haul in the deep one!  Route running is poor, but his speed is great.  Can't teach speed.  Don't forget about Vernon Davis in the redzone as well.  Looking like the Receiver options for KC have grown this off season.  Plenty of reason to like this pick and it will be interesting to see what he turns into as a sophomore and junior with NFL experience.  

 

 

I think you know exactly what I meant. I never said no one fights for balls. Garcon fights for balls I agree, but I have seen him give up on balls. I will give him credit for greatly improving in terms of dropped passes. The last 2 years he has been really good - only 1 drop during that time. But as late as 2013 he had 7 drops and was known for drops at Indy. But again, he seems to have figured that out. Not trashing Garcon, I really like him. But with Doctson to start he is taller and has incredible leaping ability, a 41" vertical. So he can get to passes many of our current WRs cannot. He has really strong hands and takes it personal if he doesn't get the ball.

 

He does tend to round off his routes but that's just coaching. What he does do in his routes is win. Davis is mostly here to block but yea, that could be a nice RZ package with 2 TEs and 3WRs. There is going to be a mismatch somewhere.

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