BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 TSO suggested we make our own Al Morris thread and here we go. http://espn.go.com/b...ff-after-age-27 NFL general managers gather their smartest people each winter to analyze rosters, assess options and formulate a plan for the offseason marketplace. In 2014, at least, they made quick work of the running back position. By now it's no surprise to hear or read about the plummeting value of running backs. No one wants to pay them premium salaries or even spend a first-round draft pick on one. To this conversation, I'd like to add an obvious and clear representation for why. The information in the fancy line graph, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information, is similar to the type of analysis NFL teams use. It shows, in pretty stark terms, how running back production drops off after the age of 27. (Hat tip to ESPN.com editor Brett Longdin for generating the graph.) The red line represents all running backs who have played at least four NFL seasons since 2001, with a minimum average of 75 carries per season. Overall, we see their careers peak at age 27. Afterward, their rushing totals drop by 15 percent in one year, 25 percent in two and almost 40 by the time they are 30. Most decision-makers -- whether their background was in scouting, accounting or anything in between -- saw that trend as a bad investment. As with any business, they reserve premium contracts for projected growth in production, not a decline. For comparison's sake, the graph also includes the receiver position (in blue, minimum average of 50 receptions over the same time period). You'll see some fluctuations, but even at age 31, the composite receiver produced a near-identical yardage total as he did at age 27. In other words, it's reasonable to expect a high-level performance into a receiver's early 30s. Running backs get no such benefit of the doubt, nor should they from a strict business sense. Even Minnesota Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson, one of the league's best players at any position, contributed to the curve at age 28 last season. It's true that he had the fifth-most rushing yards (1,266) in the NFL, but he also missed two games and overall fell 40 percent from his 2,097-yard effort in 2012. That line graph, along with a season that produced its fewest total league-wide rushing yards (57,795) in six seasons, led us to the eye-opening 2014 offseason. Keep in mind that age 27 is the essential point where most players, under the current collective bargaining agreement, become free agents for the first time. At their first opportunity for a payday, the league already views them to be beyond their prime. As of this week, teams have 177 running backs under contract. Of that group, 128 (72 percent) are 26 or younger. I counted only eight runners over the age of 29. Meanwhile, there was an obvious link between the handful of mid-20s running backs who did receive multiyear contracts this spring: None have been four-year feature backs. The Detroit Lions will pay Joique Bell (27) the eighth-highest salary for a running back in 2014 ($4.3 million). He has 248 career carries, an average of 62 per season. Toby Gerhart (27) will receive $4 million from the Jacksonville Jaguars. He has averaged 69 carries per season. Donald Brown(26) also will get $4 million from the San Diego Chargers after totaling 551 carries in five seasons, while Ben Tate (25) will get $3.25 million from the Cleveland Browns after totaling 421 carries in four seasons. And that's pretty much the list. What about Knowshon Moreno, who is 26 but has 845 career rushes? He got a one-year deal from the Miami Dolphins. Maurice Jones-Drew? He's 29 and has 1,804 career carries. His contract with the Oakland Raiders guarantees him $1.2 million for 2014. He'll earn $2.5 million, assuming he makes the team. It's fair to expect the trend to continue expanding to the draft. NFL teams didn't draft a single running back in the first round in 2013, and at the moment, ESPN's Scouts Inc. doesn't project one to be selected in the first round this year, either. (Their highest-rated runner, Ohio State's Carlos Hyde, has a mid-second round grade.) The message is clear: Running backs of this generation picked, well, the wrong generation to be running backs. Teams want them young, cheap and fresh -- and the data makes it difficult to argue their point. Also, let me preface this by saying that none of us want Al gone. We just see this as a tough decision that may have to be made. He turns 27 in December. It sucks. It really does. He's a great player and seems to be a great person as well. But I don't expect him to forego maximizing his earning potential by taking a team friendly deal here. I expect him to go get the most money possible because he plays a position with a low shelf life and that puts his body at risk for more punishment than normal. Anyways, I'll enjoy watching him play this season and if he's back next season, I'll do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 Posted October 4, 2015 Author Share Posted October 4, 2015 Double Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I "knew" it was bad, but I didn't know it was that bad. I wonder if NFL running backs are talking about this amongst themselves, and if the mandatory rookie contracts are going to have the number of years shrunk (currently 4 years with 5th year option). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I have two major issues with that graph. First, it takes an average of ALL players, not just those that are top players. Second, it bases success on the number of yards rushed, rather than the average per carry. Statistics and data are great, but its really either deceiving or meaningless unless you have the judgement to properly interpret it. I would like to see how that data stacks up for the best backs. The problem is journeyman running backs very likely show up, and are used up, and then cast aside once they want a bigger contract. Of course players that arent good enough arent going to run for 1000 yards at 29, they probably arent even in the NFL except as say, a third option. Alfred Morris has NOT been an average back, he has been a top 5 back. So then the question is, do TOP running backs see that kind of drop? The Vikings wouldnt have much of a chance this year without the incredibly old Adrian Peterson. The Seahawks have ridden over 27 Marshawn Lynch for the past 2 seasons. If they had just looked at this graph and made a decision they would have missed out on 2 of the more dominant years of his career. Matt Forte at 29 is the only offense the bears have, and has still put up over 1000 yards in the past 2 seasons. So has Frank Gore, and Justin Forsett. Taking the success of the average NFL player does not help you make a wise decision about a top NFL player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nemocystem Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Yeah...it's somewhat upsetting as RB is perhaps my 2nd favorite position on the field. I long for the days of the true workhorse back, & the gameplans that utilized them to their maximum potential. When you consider the sacrifice, the punishment they endure, for a position that has become so undervalued....it's sort of a travesty. The salary cap era has almost wiped out the RB. Outside of a few white Rhinos...they're all but extinct. I really wish it wasn't this way...but this philosophy is the norm, not the exception. Fwiw...this is another decision where i'm behind SM 100%. I feel that if we move on, it's because Scotty did his homework. ....edit The Seahawks stuck with Lynch because they were in a position where they could afford to, they built their team to where you could pay a Marshawn Lynch...a special back who does many MANY things. Things AlMo doesn't do like, block on passing downs, catch a lot of passes, generally change games with a single play (Beastquake?). Seattle was in a place where they could pay Lynch, & it wouldn't hurt their process 1 bit. Look at AP & wonder how his contract has hindered Minnesota's progress? Same with Forte. Contrarily...Buffalo feels like they can grab a Shady McCoy, & pay him because they feel like he's either A, or THE missing link. If they're wrong...then how do they traverse his contract? Same with Philly, Murray. Are we in a place where you can legitimately say...AlMo can carry us there as is...with just a few more draft picks? Or is it much more prudent to pay (young) guys who can be difference makers in positions that are harder to fill, & then when you're really ready to compete, you can get...say, a Gurley, kr Gordon coming n off of their contract? Or maybe soend a 1st rounded on your RB of the future. There's a lot of moving parts, but the RB is like the hour hand on a fine timepiece. It's the other parts that really make it tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobisimo Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I think age & drop-off factors into a potential contract for Alfred Morris, but it does not necessarily lead to the mandate that we lose him. That is, productive free agents around 26 or 27 typically get paid, but how much is relevant to their position. The kind of market a RB will generate, especially one with perceived weaknesses -- despite great running, Morris isn't known for his pass catching or break away speed, and some (foolish) GMs may even feel he's the product of the Shanahan system and won't work in their own systems -- is probably going to be around $3.5- to $4.5-million per year depending on the contract length. I won't be surprised if McCloughan feels that's a fair investment for a durable, productive, homegrown player. The only problem I see is if somehow another team values Morris even more highly, and outbids us with a $5 million per year offer. But I don't think that's likely. In other words, this isn't the Patriots smartly cutting a 2nd-rate corner because the market is offering $12 million per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheItalianStallion Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Maybe we can preserve Morris longer by continuing to let him split the load with Jones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 One thing the Redskins need to know before they make a decision on Morris is whether he's a fit. Gruden over the last few games really seemed to be favoring Jones... Even in critical situations. Morris is a great doubles hitter out of a zone blocking attack. He's consistent and gets more big plays than he should. We don't really know how well he transitions to a power scheme and we should find out before we phase him out now or in the future. I think splitting the carries is a good thing, even a smart thing, but abandoning Morris now is premature. Take advantage of him now and give him a chance to prove himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodriggo Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 If they can sign him for "okay" money I say why not. If he wants more than he should be paid, good luck to him. He, like Rob, was a product of the 2012 offense. That's long gone now and he's not versatile enough in the passing game to garner big bucks. He's humble, salt of the earth, doesn't strike me as a "Imma get paid" kinda guy. If anything I think maybe the current FO moves on instead of keeping his skill set, which they have no loyalty to. If Fournette is available in two years do you think Scot takes him? That dude is something else. Poor guy, he should be making millions right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I have two major issues with that graph. First, it takes an average of ALL players, not just those that are top players. OK, but now I'll make the contrarian argument. That graph? The "21" data point includes every RB who got drafted. (Well, every one that made the roster.) The "28" data point? Only includes those RBs who didn't get cut or injured out of the game. The chart compares the average rookie, against the average six year veteran. (And the average rookie doesn't become a six year veteran.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I thought this said "continence of Alfred Morris discussion" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I think Alf could be the best 3 mil backup in the league or the worst 6 mil starter. I'd love to keep him on a reasonable contract, but not as a starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsFTW Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I think they set the bar pretty low for rbs @ 75 carries while the comparison of wrs with 50 receptions was high because there are dozens of wrs who have 20-50 receptions a year or 2 and are then gone from the league. So at 75 rushes they included the mediocre rbs who will be gone but not the wrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I think Alf could be the best 3 mil backup in the league or the worst 6 mil starter. I'd love to keep him on a reasonable contract, but not as a starter. Agree totally. The one qualifier I'd make is I'd still like to see if I can get Denver to overpay for him in a trade. They need to get that running game going and the system they're running is obviously perfect for Morris. Seems like a good opportunity to try for a mini-fleecing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommanderDOOM Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 ... get Denver to overpay for him in a trade..... Seems like a good opportunity ... Its time we think ahead like the good teams do. We have Morris' replacement. Morris still has value. Is there not a team out there that will give us 2nd to 4th rounders for him or am I overvaluing Alf?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Its time we think ahead like the good teams do. We have Morris' replacement. Morris still has value. Is there not a team out there that will give us 2nd to 4th rounders for him or am I overvaluing Alf?? A 2nd certainly seems unlikely, but that's why I bring up Denver. They're running out of time on Peyton and brought in Kubiak to bring the zone running game to go along with the defense to help the QB. Again, Morris seems like a perfect fit and they seem like a team that should think aout even overpaying a little if it's going to get them there. Maybe you make it a 2017 pick to get the most value. But the ideal time to do this would have been after the 2013 season, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 Posted October 5, 2015 Author Share Posted October 5, 2015 I dont blame Alfred for the tough time today. Philly is stout upfront. That's a tough match up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taylor703 Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Its time we think ahead like the good teams do. We have Morris' replacement. Morris still has value. Is there not a team out there that will give us 2nd to 4th rounders for him or am I overvaluing Alf?? How do we have his replacement? We literally have no idea what we have in Jones at the moment and if he keeps putting the ball on the turf he's never going to be a featured back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipwhich Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I don't see Morris getting any huge deals in free agency. People thinking teams are clamoring to overpay him are silly. Meaning, his best deal might be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diehard Otis Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 One thing the Redskins need to know before they make a decision on Morris is whether he's a fit. Gruden over the last few games really seemed to be favoring Jones... Even in critical situations. Morris is a great doubles hitter out of a zone blocking attack. He's consistent and gets more big plays than he should. We don't really know how well he transitions to a power scheme and we should find out before we phase him out now or in the future. I think splitting the carries is a good thing, even a smart thing, but abandoning Morris now is premature. Take advantage of him now and give him a chance to prove himself. I would like to add to this post: Alfred Morris is truly underrated (even amongst Skins fans). All the guy does is move the chains, grinds down defenses, is steady & dependable, and does not fumble. I understand that in this fantasy sports driven environment, everyone wants a homerun hitter that can score from any point on the field. Fine, I get that. And I also know that this is not 46's game. BUT...all we have seen AlMo do is wear out a defense over the course of a game when he's given his carries. He won't run away from the defense. However, he will hit a bunch of 4-to-8-yarders, sprinkle in a few 10-to-17-yard-gains, and bust out an occasional 30-to-35-yarder. And when he sees the ball north of 15 times (more often than not), those are the results he gets. And The Redskins can Win a lotta ballgames with that kind of production. The sad part is that Gruden isn't utilizing him properly. Morris is a workhorse back that produces when given the lion's share of the carries. He also works best in the zone blocking format. I know we're transitioning towards a power oriented scheme, but Alfred looked great on that last drive. Let's see a little more of that through the course of the game - then we'll see his numbers return. [This is the essence of my criticism of Jay Gruden. My view is that he won't alter his scheme to enhance his players' strengths. I sure hope he proves me wrong, but I am not optimistic in this regard] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Passepartout Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Well hopefully that Alfred will have a better season. But it was a tough game though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conn Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I know he gets better as he's fed, he's more of a wear-you-down grinder...but does he seem more sluggish lately anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSO Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I know he gets better as he's fed, he's more of a wear-you-down grinder...but does he seem more sluggish lately anyone else? It's kind of like last year, early on. There was a point where his vision was just totally off and he kept hitting the wrong holes. He'd be hesitant in doing so and so he'd be easy to tackle because he didn't have a full head of steam. I remember a game where we kind of benched him and put Silas Redd in at one point, who immediately fumbled, lol. Then we scrapped that plan. Here's something with regards to what I'm talking about: Since Week 5 when Morris ran for just 29 yards on 13 carries against the Seattle Seahawks, Morris has only gotten better. Over the past six games since thatMonday Night Football contest, his yards-per-game, yards-per-carry and total carries have increased steadily. While you can look to the X’s and O’s for a reason for his recent success, Morris said he simply got back to the basics. “I stopped trying to think too much,” Morris said. “I’ve been playing this game since I was 5. I know how to be a runner. I just stopped thinking and stopped trying to make things happen that weren’t there.” http://www.redskins.com/news-and-events/article-1/Redskins-Alfred-Morris-Getting-Stronger-And-Stronger/6cd3bb34-4688-485c-bc97-f946430f2de7 His strengths are his vision and ability to break through arm tackles when he gets going. He's missing that a bit right now, though it was there on that last drive which, coincidentally, featured the biggest holes for him all game. But there were chances earlier in the game and he's just not hitting it right. A little OT, but people are way too sensitive about Alfred. He's literally my favorite personality on the team and I think he's as good as it gets for the locker room. Easiest player to root for on the team by a mile, it's not even close with anyone else. Which I think is why people get bothered right away when discussing him unemotionally. That being said, it's okay if we notice the issues in his game. They do exist. He's not perfect. He was taken in the 6th round for a reason, as good as he's played. I'm hoping he turns it on again as he gets more comfortable with some of these new blocking schemes we're running. He did so last season, too, towards the end and looked like a different back. A big part of this, of course, has been the Giants and Eagles stout run Ds. But as it stands right now, the Oline needs to be pretty damn good for him to get going. It'd be nice if he'd make some plays happen on his own, which he's entirely capable of doing. It's time-set so click on it for one of my favorite runs of his last season when we played the Bucs: https://youtu.be/YpqkyoutV_M?t=4m1s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjinhan Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 His strengths are his vision and ability to break through arm tackles when he gets going. He's missing that a bit right now, though it was there on that last drive which, coincidentally, featured the biggest holes for him all game. But there were chances earlier in the game and he's just not hitting it right. I need to go back and try to track down Alfred's quote was that Alfred really needs his carries to get in the groove because he has always been a high volume work load back. Alfred said that limiting his carries during preseason actually set him back because couple of years ago and he never wants to have that type of preseason again. I think Alfred is a really good back but if we are going to continue the 2 headed or possibly 3 headed monster route, it will eventually limit Alfred's effectiveness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I know he gets better as he's fed, he's more of a wear-you-down grinder...but does he seem more sluggish lately anyone else? In today's game, I noticed that while he didn't do well... he did relatively better than Jones. When Jones got his shots, he got the same 1 or two yards or even less. Morris did a better job of at least falling forward. Looks like there just weren't many holes to exploit yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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