The Official 2023 ES Free Agency Thread... available until Free Agency 2024 begins

[philibusters]

27 minutes ago, Fred Jones said:

I disagree.  It is not the first rounders so much that two of them never lived up to their draft status.  I don't blame the coaches for that.  I blame the people that selected them and clearly thought they were better than they actually were.  The coaches are to blame, but not for everything.  Replace Young with Bosa and Sweat with another good player and we would have had a good Dline.

 

To me, besides Dan and Allen and the like, the number ONE issue the last 20 plus years is the inability to consistenly acquire quality talent.  Spend too much, bad drafts, bad free agents, ect.  We never had enough talent for the coaches to win, regardless of who was coaching.  By coaches, I don't mean the likes of Zorn, the Florida coach, Grudes and a few others.

 

I don't think Montez Sweat failed to play to his draft status.  He was an end of the first round pick, 26th overall.  He is a good player, not a great player, kinda of the median of what to expect around pick 26th.  If you were creating an over/under for the 26th pick, you could probably use Sweat.   Young definitely did not live up to the hype of being the 2nd overall pick.  In fairness that is a hard standard to live up to, but he wasn't really all that close.

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

I don't know if you're putting me in that group.  I've posted I think the roster needs a major re-build, but they do have some pieces which are good and they can build around.

 

The biggest reason I believe the roster needs and is going to get a major overhaul is the following players are the only ones actually on the roster next year:

 

QB: Howell

RB: Robinson, Rodriguez

TE: Thomas, Bates, Turner, Hodges, Rodgers

OT: Leno, Wylie

G: Scott, Daniels, Paul, Cosmi

Center: Gates, Stromberg

WR: McLaurin, Dotson, Brown, Milne, Tinsley

 

They're at least going to be looking for:

QB: Backup.  Maybe starter, but most likely a backup

RB: 3rd down back

OT: Probably 2 starters.  Leno would be great as a swing backup.  Wylie most likely won't be back.

G: Probably a starting guard, unless Daniels or Paul convince everybody they are the answer, which I doubt.  

Center: At the very lest, a backup center to Stomberg, if he's the starting Center. Or a starting Center.  Gates has been benched already and Larsen is a FA.

WR: They really have 2: McLaurin and Dotson.  Brown, Milne and Tinsley don't count.  So they'll be looking for a Samuel replacement.  I think, most likely in the draft.

 

Defense:

DE: Toney, Henry.  That's literally all the players on the roster right now at DE for next year.  

DT: Allen, Payne, Mathis, Ridgeway

LB: Davis.  I'll show ignorance, they have Drew White and Andre Jones as well, but I'm not sure who they are.  Maybe I should, but I don't. 

Safety: Butler, Forrest

CB: Ben St. Juice, Forbes, Danny Johnson, Quan Martin, Christian Holmes

 

 

FAs are Fuller, James Smith-Williams, Casey Toohill, Jeremy Reaves, Efe Obada, David Bada, Khaleke Hudson, David Mayo

 

 

Those FAs aren't of course the core of our roster.  the core is mostly intact.  And the vibe I get right now just piecing together various narratives from people who cover this team.  Granted its still early.  But I don't get the vibe at all they are pursuing a complete tear down.  Feels more like the Eagles-Lions recent quick rebuild style -- load up on assets -- draft picks and cap room and go for the kill. 

 

A.  They believe in Howell right now.  they are likely riding with him if he keeps on a good trajectory. 

 

B.  They didn't believe in the allocation of resources to the D line considering the results.  Can't tell if this is Ron coming to that realization or its Harris or its the new anayltics guy but somehow they reached that thought.  

 

C.  They get how nonsexy and blah Ron's off seasons have been.  They need to stir some fan excitment.  So they don't plan another ho hum off season.  I don't get the sense that means some rash-crazy moves but they will likely sign a marquee name or two.  Or like i said to those people who hated this idea in the off season, even if you don't make moves for bigger names, how about adding draft capital?  Doing that, is interesting and sexy in the sense that its different for this team.  I was listening to a draft anaylist yesterday talking about how this team is a prime topic all of a sudden for the next draft.  They will get some buzz this off season for this alone.

 

D.  Keim keeps pushing the idea about O line.  Gives me the vibe that they are aware they need to fix it in the off season.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

15 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't wanna just give McLaurin away. Even rebuilding teams need veterans to serve as mentor figures and building blocks. And I personally don't think the team needs some kind of massive talent overhaul. 

If your D is in the 30th in the league zone, and your OL is comically incompetent, and your running game lacks elite athletes, and your TE room is filled with jags and 1 athletic but injury prone guy, and you have zero proven QB's on the roster, well, you do need a massive overhaul.

 

There may be pieces that look a lot better under a new regime. It's not nothing, but this team is far closer to "cupboards bare" than "compete for the playoffs". 

[Skinsinparadise]

32 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Yeah, that's my quandry as well, I feel like you gotta take the LT if they're there. It's such a massive need for us, and we haven't been in position to draft a premier LT in years because we always find ourselves in the middle of the pack. 

 

Hindsight is 20/20 but drafting Jamin Davis over Christian Darrisaw is probably this regime's biggest transgression. That or not trading ahead of Pittsburgh this year and taking Broderick Jones. Although apparently we would have traded up to take Forbes so at least we didn't do that.

 

I was more of a Darnell Wright than Broderick Jones in that range but agree with your sentiment.

 

I am looking forward to digesting the tackles.

 

I was just listening to Trevor Sikkema about the draft and he was going on and on about the three spots he feel are loaded at QB, tackle, edge.  He thought CB and WR, too.  He said this is a great draft for any team to load up on picks because it looks like a loaded draft.

 

I know some like to say on the draft thread, they always think the draft is loaded, but that's really not true.  For example it was a narrative last year that the draft was once of the least loaded in memory.

 

Granted its all subjective.  And i haven't watched to make up my own mind yet but I love what I hear about this draft.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

15 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I think it needs a massive talent overhaul.  Mostly because we only have 35 players under contract for next year.  Or something like that.  
 

The entire defense needs to be rebuilt.  The OL need an infusion of talent, TE is going to be bare, and we’ll need a RB and probably a WR or two. 
 

The good news is we have a bunch of draft picks and $90m in cap space to do it.

 

The key will be finding the right GM and coach.  
 

One thing to keep in mind when it comes to “retread” coaches.  Not all are created equal.  Pederson was the perfect fit for Jax, and Reid, a really long time ago, was a retread who went to KC and has won 2 SBs. 
 

It doesn’t matter where you get the right guy from as long as you get the right guy.  

I think there was plenty of evidence that Pederson and Reid were really talented coaches, I don't think there was evidence that Ron was. The only evidence there was that if they had a solid D, and a franchise QB in a healthy young version of Cam Newton, they could make runs. Ron was a known commodity coming in. I don't think anyone with sense thought he'd ever win a super bowl here unless he got carried by landing a franchise QB in one of those '20 or '21 classes, barring that, he was nowhere near good enough to make it happen. The good news is that he was able to do the other positive thing he was brought in to do. Clean up and fumigate the team's reputation (in conjunction with trebuchet'ing Snyder out of the organization). He did do that.

 

I don't mind a guy whose really talented, but had some bad luck with a team's build. The Rams are kind of example of that. Their coach is good, but the roster is thin and holed all over because of win now trades. A guy like McVay would be fine, as long as you make sure he isn't running your front office too. But I would prefer to just research the crap of the FO's, find the ones that have had sustained excellence (not simply a great offseason, or one move that allowed most everything else to happen (Mahomes papers over a ton of flaws in KC for instance)), hire them, the analytically driven ones, don't hire dinosaurs. I'd prefer a great assistant with a quick mind. It's more than a little annoying that we had so many of those and ran them all off under Snyder. If it's a retread its got to be a McVay type whose been compromised by his FO GM's team build approach. I don't want another Ron, an old Shanny type, the idiot in Dallas etc. 

[The Consigliere]

13 hours ago, NickyJ said:

People talking about trading Terry are battered fans. Our team is full of stinky flowers, but stop and smell the roses. We have about 5 of them, so it doesn't take much effort to find them. Terry is one of them. Enjoy the roses for what they are.

 

Sure, we can trade Terry. We might even get a good pick out of him if he's as overrated by the fans as some think, but somehow still able to command a price making him worth trading. Sam presumably goes too since the people talking Terry trades seem to generally be down on Sam. So we need a new QB. We need a new O-Line. We need a new defense. Jahan may or may not be a second string receiver. Logan Thomas is ancient. Who does our new QB playing behind a new O-Line throw to?

 

Pshhhaaawww, that's little details. Don't sweat them. It'll be fine, just look at the Cardinals. Actually, don't look at them. Look at the Bills when they didn't have Diggs yet. Actually, don't look at them either. You know what? Stop looking. Just do it. We can pay someone else's overrated WR instead.

 

I'm fine w/keeping McLaurin, or not, but people need to realize he turns 29 next year. He's not getting better, he's getting older. WR's tend to slip around age 27-29, we can ride it, and he should be fine for a couple more seasons, or we could max his value now in a trade knowing that his prime will be spent on a version of us that sucked the entire time, that's just reality. If it helps improve Howell's prospects of becoming a franchise QB, I'd probably keep him, at least into next year, but would he be a guy I'd trade for a nice offer? Absolutely. By the time we finally have this team rebuilt, he's gonna be 31 if we're lucky.  Not what he once was. 

[Chump Bailey]

Anyone in favor of giving recently terminated Raiders OC Mick Lombardi a shot? This is not in my wheelhouse in the least, but considering his QB was Jimmy G, I think a certain amount of leeway is called for because IMO Jimmy G blows. 

[The Consigliere]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The 8-8-1 record was set up to go from average to good.

 

Reason why I bailed on Ron is instead of making that climb -- he had a garbage off season. 

 

Some say well even a nothing off season should still keep them at 8-8-1?  Right?  IMO, wrong.    Other teams with good off seasons are getting better.  For example the Giants beat us mainly thanks to better coaching and Okereke, Hyatt, Banks, Isaiah Simmons (who quietly had big pressures in big moments). All off season additions. While we are waiting for Sweet and Chase to finally have a monster season, Thibodeaux in season 2 is having that kind of year.

 

Lucky for us, they don't have a QB and their O line sucks.  But they've had a better run recently in adding talent.  I bring them up because they are seen as the stepchild by many of our fans as the joke in the division.  But I think we might be the joke with our regime running things right now, not them.

 

Then we got the Lions basically with the same record as we did last year.  But they had a really good off season.  So now they are a SB contender and we suck.

 

My point is I get the vibe listening to Keim that this ownership likely digs Howell if he keeps improving.  And aren't per se looking at a long rebuild here.  Loading up on picks and cap space can work quickly if you have a competent regime, see the Lions.  Granted a new GM will have their own vision and could take things in any direction.  But if the Lions can climb fast from mediocrity, why not us?

 

And again, I know they didn't want Terry on the market and didn't want to trade Jonathan Allen.  So I don't think the few people here who wants this regime to sell them all will get what they want.

 

 

 

I think the NFL outsmarts itself at times, that probably goes without saying. But man, Kayvon was the 1.01 on literally EVERYONE's board for a year, and then 2 months before the draft, suddenly a project with huge athletic potential in Walker jumps ahead of him, Detroit's FO just likes Hutchinson better who was the 1B to Kayvon's 1A the entire 12 months previous, and two corners leap ahead of him too (in fairness, Sauce is a stud) with Stingley being a surprise. Lets be straight, the giants stole Thibodeaux the same way the Pats stole Gonzalez, except Thibodeux was even more valuable considering his HOF level ceiling. 

Edited November 1, 2023 by The Consigliere

[JamesMadisonSkins]

4 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I think the NFL outsmarts itself at times, that probably goes without saying. But man, Kayvon was the 1.01 on literally EVERYONE's board for a year, and then 2 months before the draft, suddenly a project with huge athletic potential in Walker jumps ahead of him, Detroit's FO just likes Hutchinson better who was the 1B to Kayvon's 1A the entire 12 months previous, and two corners leap ahead of him too (in fairness, Sauce is a stud) with Stingley being a surprise. Lets be straight, the giants stole Thibodeaux the same way the Pats stole Gonzalez, except Thibodeux was even more valuable considering his HOF level ceiling. 

 

This is why I am always somewhat suspicious of one-year wonders rising up draft boards and overtaking guys who have been etched near the top for a full draft cycle. 

 

I'm not saying guys can't improve and capitalize on that growth, but look at Sam Howell and Brock Purdy. Both were being talked about as potential 1st rounders heading into their final college seasons, both had down years, and both were drafted in the 5th and 7th rounds. The book is still somewhat out on them, but I try to take a look at the pre-collegiate big boards and take note of the names at the top and then track the movement over the course of the draft cycle. When in doubt, go with the guys were were there all along. 

 

Justin Herbert is another example. Was talked about as a potential #1 overall pick if he came out in 2019. He did not, had a down-ish year at Oregon, and "fell" in the draft outside of the Top 5. Now Burrow is definitely a "one year wonder" who rose up the boards, but that was a freak season and it was clear he had talent (and pedigree as a former top recruit). Tua and Herbert going 5 & 6 in hindsight is silly. Should have been Burrow-Tua-Herbert 1-2-3 regardless of who else was there to draft .

Edited November 1, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Skinsinparadise]

These all align with what Keim among others have said. Harris set the tone for a future oriented mindset.

 

Ron got his way by not trading some of the guys that trades were offered for.    He got his way by trading Chase.  As to Sweat, the trade was too good to pass over.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CapsSkins]

It would not surprise me if we go on a win streak and potentially sneak into the 3rd wildcard spot. I think we're better without 90 and 99 honestly.

[The Consigliere]

6 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Yeah, turns out all that hype about “The Patriot Way” was a bunch of horse****. The Patriot Way works great if you have the greatest QB of all time  playing for a fraction of what he’s worth. Otherwise, not so much.

Patriot fans are gonna spend decades trying to convince people that Billichek is the coaching GOAT while most fans will say, "his teams were total ---- every season with any team, save the '08 patriots. Its a pretty convincing argument. Could Bellicheck do what Gibbs did with four different QB's (win 3 Super Bowls? Schreoder/Williams was '87). I think most would argue hell no.

 

Patriot fans will point to Noll and Bradshaw, Walsh and Montana, Johnson and Aikman, whomever and Favre, Shanny and Elway etc.

 

Its gonna be interesting how people try and figure out how to apportion the patriots accomplishments because they are so drastically outsized to any other HOF coach or QB's career, and yet, you have circumstantial proof, w/o Brady, it was a big nothing. Interesting. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I just looked at Brugler's big board he just came out with today.  8 out of the top 32 are tackles that's insane.  

[CapsSkins]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

I just looked at Brugler's big board he just came out with today.  8 out of the top 32 are tackles that's insane.  

 

First round LT, please.

[HigSkin]

Just now, CapsSkins said:

 

First round LT, please.

 

And....2nd round right tackle please.  LOL

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, HigSkin said:

 

And....2nd round right tackle please.  LOL

 

lol, just judging by early mock drafts-boards, this is the draft where you can do it in theory at least.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

We will likely add something to the OL in Free Agency. No way we roll with the 2022 FA additions in their current spots for another year. And we can't have 3 starting rookies. Maybe Wylie kicks in to LG to compete with Paul. Gates gets kept around as a backup C/G. Hopefully Stromberg can start at Center in 2024. In theory you've got the pieces to move around to make the OL work ... LT - Wylie - Stromberg - Cosmi - RT ... just gotta figure out those Tackles. 

 

BUT, for all the credit this FO gets for Howell + Dotson + Brob over Olave, they get many many downgrades for all of their other picks. Forbes (1st), Davis (1st), Mathis (2nd), Martin (2nd) ... ALL were overdrafted. I don't really trust anyone this FO drafted or signed in FA to be "secure" going forward unless they have proven themselves, to which Howell, Dotson, Curl have at least done.

 

Media draft scouts and gurus are wrong all the time. We can't trust their draft boards as much as we can't necessarily grade a draft right away. But there's enough long-term evidence that this front office has failed at understanding talent in both the draft and free agency. 

I can't wait for 2024 when we sign someone with pedigree who we get praised for ... and draft someone that the mocks actually had within 3-5 picks. 

 

Davis was someone I wanted in the 2nd. Martin was someone I liked a lot and wanted in the 4th. Forbes I wanted in the 2nd. Mathis I hadn't made an opinion on because I didn't think we were targeting DTs ... but most had him in the 4th or 5th. Just nauseating.

Edited November 1, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[PlayAction]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

analytics usually pushes for trade downs or heaven forbid (something we never do aside from McCloughan doing it a little) something this team never does and that is trade down this year for picks next year -- a Howie Roseman special.

 

I remember when the Skins (pre Snyder) did a trade down for a future pick.  It kind of sucked but the next year there were two high picks in the first round for Chris Samuels and Lavar Arrington.  Those were the days. 

[MartinC]

3 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

And....2nd round right tackle please.  LOL

One of the consensus top 3 OTs is a RT. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

33 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I'm fine w/keeping McLaurin, or not, but people need to realize he turns 29 next year. He's not getting better, he's getting older. WR's tend to slip around age 27-29, we can ride it, and he should be fine for a couple more seasons, or we could max his value now in a trade knowing that his prime will be spent on a version of us that sucked the entire time, that's just reality. If it helps improve Howell's prospects of becoming a franchise QB, I'd probably keep him, at least into next year, but would he be a guy I'd trade for a nice offer? Absolutely. By the time we finally have this team rebuilt, he's gonna be 31 if we're lucky.  Not what he once was. 

He's also going to need a contract by then. Not a total no-go situation, but it should be something considered. If you can get a great trade for him, that has to be measured against what his cost to value projection would be for that contract in his 30s. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

He's also going to need a contract by then. Not a total no-go situation, but it should be something considered. If you can get a great trade for him, that has to be measured against what his cost to value projection would be for that contract in his 30s. 

 

WR is likely in the mix early in this upcoming draft for this reason. McLaurin was older when he was drafted, so he's hitting his peak years quicker. Dotson is good, but TBD on how good. Dyami is okay, but nothing special and only has a couple years left. Samuel is gone after this season. 

 

I could see us double-dipping at WR. Maybe not in Round 1 or 2 ... but in Round 3 and 4 I could see us adding some weaponry for both the short-term and long-term. And bringing this back to FA, WRs are expensive ... I would not expect us to add to our WR group via FA like we did with Samuel a few years ago.

[Rex Tomb]

1 hour ago, philibusters said:

Young definitely did not live up to the hype of being the 2nd overall pick.  In fairness that is a hard standard to live up to, but he wasn't really all that close.

What kills me is that he didn't seem to put in the work after having a very solid rookie season and winning DROY.  He rested on that over that offseason and ended up having a super disappointing season.  He didn't come to any of the voluntary workouts because he "had to get that money" (paraphrased but close to what he said).  I was out on him after that, especially because he seemed like he would be a great leader and a tone setter during his rookie season.  And then he wasn't...

 

Having said that, I fully anticipate he is going to go to SF and tear it up as a situational pass rusher.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Rex Tomb

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Those FAs aren't of course the core of our roster.  the core is mostly intact. 

I guess that depends on who you define as the core.  

 

Offense:

Howell, McLaurin, Dotson, Cosmi.

 

Anybody else?  I wouldn't say anybody else on the OL has distinguished themselves to be core guys, Thomas maybe at TE, but he's old and entering the last year of his deal.  I wouldn't list him that way.  And I don't put any RB into a "core" category these days, though they do have good ones in Robinson and Rodriguez.  

 

Defense:

Payne and Allen. And I'll give you St. Juice.  

 

Who else who's under contract?  Fuller and Curl would be my "next 2 up" but they are both FAs.  Davis?  I mean, maybe because he's here.  None of the DEs.  Forbes has stunk. Quan? Butler?  Danny Johnson?  Barton is a FA and not that good.  Mayo and Hudson are both FAs. 

 

I don't think they have a very strong core that's under contract.  

 

Now, they COULD re-sign a few guys, and that could change.  But as of now, I think they are looking for probably 10 new starters next year, at a minimum.  Hell, they could have 2 new DEs, 2 new safeties, 2 new LBs and 2 new CBs on opening day.  That's 8 of 12 (I'm adding a spot because they play nickel and base, so accounting for either a LB or 3rd DB as a starter) starters could be people who are not on the team who could be starters.  Allen, Payne, Davis and St. Juice are the only 4 remaining who are sortof guaranteed starting spots next year on defense, assuming they are all back.  

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, Conn said:

 

Bears unbelievably weak schedule makes that pick more likely in the 40-45 range, than the 35-40 range, imo. All it takes is a couple of wins on the edges, and then the tiebreakers which become an advantage in round 1 slotting will cause their pick to tumble just on that alone in round 2 as well. 

 

So, we'll see, I'd bet, the pick lands somewhere between 37-42, still damn good, but 35 feels like an ideal and probably unlikely result. 

[method man]

I think folks really underestimate having a solid LT on a contract paying him $12m a year. Whether or not we draft a guy, you keep Leno around