The Official 2023 ES Free Agency Thread... available until Free Agency 2024 begins

[Rufus T Firefly]

5 minutes ago, Conn said:

To me that Patriots era is the epitome of this meme (below), but backwards. Brady was always clutch but those early SB’s were heavily defensive-driven, ST’s-driven. Brilliant schematic and roster-building problem solving from Belichick in those years. He was never an amazing drafter, but coined the trading down approach before it was popular, to get more shots to make up for it. Made some absolutely incredible draft picks and trades amongst the muck. Then Brady grew into an absolute monster, the GOAT. Hard to separate their impact over the span of literal decades. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, a lot of the fan takes on Belichick got kind of dumb in his heyday and they are going to get kind of dumb on the other end of the spectrum now. He is going down on the very shortlist of greatest coaches, and deservedly so. He was never a great GM, but he implemented several organizational philosophies that more than made for that- trading players for picks before their salaries became higher than their value, trading down for more draft capital, trading current picks for future higher picks. 

 

The "Patriot way" that people now want to mock was about team first attitude, players being accountable and doing their jobs, having intelligent players who could adapt to multiple systems.. Some of that sounds pretty basic, but a lot of teams don't put enough emphasis on some of those basic things. The "do your job" thing may sound trite, but it was about players just concentrating on their defined roles rather than making a name for themselves. For example, a DE going all out for sacks and not keeping content would be antithetical to it. 

 

There were some years where early on it looked like the Patriots were in serious trouble. A position group (OL, Defensive backfield, etc) looked completely lost and it would doom the team and then a few weeks later that group was top-notch again. That was coaching. And it had to do with the culture they had. It is something you really don't see form other teams and to pretend it wasn't praise worthy is just silly. 

 

Would they have won a SB every other year without Brady? Of course not. Are BB's ego and bad GM qualities killing the team now? Yes. But that doesn't mean he was never a Mt. Rushmore level HC or that there was nothing to the way they did things there. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

23 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Of the FA's who are core guys aside from Fuller, and Curl?

Well, I guess my point is there aren't a lot of core guys to begin with. 

 

I think it's hard to say "the core is there" when the core consists of 7 guys, it's hard to say there is a real core to build around.

 

That said, if one of those guys is Howell, and the QB question is answered, that's a HUGE piece we haven't had in years.

 

I just think the team is going to look vastly different next year.  Partially because they need to get better, and partially because they have so few guys under contract.  

 

I completely mis-judged this year's team, specifically on defense.  I thought the defense would be at the same level or better than last year's defense.  Boy was I wrong.  

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

Now to personnel. I know you have a different idea than some of us as to how trade capital works.  As you know i am not a Ron fan this year.  But to defend him the trade market mostly works out organically.  Why did Sweat fetch more than Chase?  Its because there were more teams competing for him and the Bears wanted to top them.  I know we got our own perceptions of what players are worth.  But the league doesn't always see it the same way.  And context matters a lot as to trades.     With Chase his expiring contract and knee among other things didn't bring the same demand.  It just is what it is.  but I'd rather get something than nothing.  I know you said the other day, you'd rather get nothing to make a point that we can't be had.  I get it.  but that's not me.

I would argue that competition for the player was secondary, or at least, the competition itself and it's ability to inflate and deflate a price was almost entirely connected to Young's medicals, and to a lesser extent his mental make up.

 

Consider how far elite players fall on draft day with bad medicals. A good example this past season was Sean Tucker, who was projected as the #2 to #5 RB on most boards in the summer of '22, and then tumbled entirely out of the draft after bad medicals related to his heart. This happens like clockwork, every single year. If a draft prospect has bad medicals, he tumbles, badly. My UNR QB who was projected to go quite high the summer of '21, also tumbled badly because of his knees. 

 

With a guy like Young, who tore his ACL in November '21, to not be able to really play or contribute at all for basically all of '22 and not just '21, well, I think the league already soured on his knee and you had a situation where:

Medical Red Flag

Mental Make up Personality concerns

Expiring Contract Issue

 

Just how valuable is that?

 

Answer?

Not much. 

 

[Riggo-toni]

1 hour ago, zCommander said:

Where is @Riggo-toni? I think the thread title needs an update.  

You may have a point... I just figured trades usually get separate threads apart from FA. 😎

[zCommander]

6 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said:

You may have a point... I just figured trades usually get separate threads apart from FA. 😎

 

Oh okay. We don't have a trade thread. Everyone is just using this thread instead. 

[Conn]

46 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Yeah, a lot of the fan takes on Belichick got kind of dumb in his heyday and they are going to get kind of dumb on the other end of the spectrum now. He is going down on the very shortlist of greatest coaches, and deservedly so. He was never a great GM, but he implemented several organizational philosophies that more than made for that- trading players for picks before their salaries became higher than their value, trading down for more draft capital, trading current picks for future higher picks. 

 

The "Patriot way" that people now want to mock was about team first attitude, players being accountable and doing their jobs, having intelligent players who could adapt to multiple systems.. Some of that sounds pretty basic, but a lot of teams don't put enough emphasis on some of those basic things. The "do your job" thing may sound trite, but it was about players just concentrating on their defined roles rather than making a name for themselves. For example, a DE going all out for sacks and not keeping content would be antithetical to it. 

 

There were some years where early on it looked like the Patriots were in serious trouble. A position group (OL, Defensive backfield, etc) looked completely lost and it would doom the team and then a few weeks later that group was top-notch again. That was coaching. And it had to do with the culture they had. It is something you really don't see form other teams and to pretend it wasn't praise worthy is just silly. 

 

Would they have won a SB every other year without Brady? Of course not. Are BB's ego and bad GM qualities killing the team now? Yes. But that doesn't mean he was never a Mt. Rushmore level HC or that there was nothing to the way they did things there. 

Excellently said. People love when the Evil Empire finally falls, I get it. Brady became more likable (and proved his GOAT status) in Tampa Bay so he gets let off the hook for all the negative feelings people had towards that Patriots dynasty for so many years. So now Belichick eats all that residual resentment, and people watch his descent with glee. But the systems and culture he put in place (yes, eventually enabled into a self-sustaining feedback loop by Brady’s greatness) were real and he revolutionized roster construction and schematic adaptability in a unique way. I’m never really interested in the granular details of “who is the single greatest” debates, I’m more of a tiers/era guy. Belichick is a great. 

[The Consigliere]

49 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I think the plan should be fairly obvious in free agency and the draft. Target the best players available. We are short on talent right across the board, we need a strong offseason of simply adding the best talent we can get through the door. 
 

Pretty much every position is a position of need. Just go get as many BPA as possible in 2024.

There's nuance to it.

RB's have short career horizons which is one of the reasons the draft capital used on them has declined so sharply the past 15 years. Its pretty rare that teams pull the trigger on RB's in round 1 these days and its usually dinosaur GMs/coaches who do it (Cowboys with Zeke, Raiders with Jacobs, old school Jags guy with Fournette, old school Panthers guy with McCaffrey, more recently the Falcons and Lions just did it, I cant remember who runs the falcons, and while the lions are riding high, they also can be a bit on the dinosaur end of things.

 

Basically what I mean is that for positions like LB, and RB, where you can pretty consistently land mega studs in round 2 you shouldn't use 1st round draft capital, and you shouldn't sign FA rb's considering the data on the RB productivity age cliff being around age 26 (no 2nd contracts please). 

 

I'm not best available player, I'm using 1st round draft capital on positions that are expensive in FA and have reasonable hit rates early. So my first rounders are exclusively about Edge, DT, CB, WR, QB, OT, and then I look at interior OL after the top 10ish. I never take LB's, or RBs or Centers in the top 20, period, and I try to avoid safeties there as well. 

 

FA can be used to target anything, but you should consider the relative cost for high end talent at the position, and your draft capital when considering signings. Considering this draft has a lot of help at DL, OL, and QB, we should priorities those positions in the draft and maybe WR. I dont have a problem going after RB, but it needs to be in round 2 or a trade down in round 1. Doesn't seem like a tremendous RB class though. Its not horrible, it just seems a bit shallow in top end guys, only a couple. 

[Redskins 2021]

37 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I would argue that competition for the player was secondary, or at least, the competition itself and it's ability to inflate and deflate a price was almost entirely connected to Young's medicals, and to a lesser extent his mental make up.

 

Consider how far elite players fall on draft day with bad medicals. A good example this past season was Sean Tucker, who was projected as the #2 to #5 RB on most boards in the summer of '22, and then tumbled entirely out of the draft after bad medicals related to his heart. This happens like clockwork, every single year. If a draft prospect has bad medicals, he tumbles, badly. My UNR QB who was projected to go quite high the summer of '21, also tumbled badly because of his knees. 

 

With a guy like Young, who tore his ACL in November '21, to not be able to really play or contribute at all for basically all of '22 and not just '21, well, I think the league already soured on his knee and you had a situation where:

Medical Red Flag

Mental Make up Personality concerns

Expiring Contract Issue

 

Just how valuable is that?

 

Answer?

Not much. 

 

 I can only imagine how bad his medical report is now. That was a terrible knee injury he had. I think that medical report dropped him at least a round in the trade.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Redskins 2021

[The Consigliere]

7 minutes ago, Conn said:

Excellently said. People love when the Evil Empire finally falls, I get it. Brady became more likable (and proved his GOAT status) in Tampa Bay so he gets let off the hook for all the negative feelings people had towards that Patriots dynasty for so many years. So now Belichick eats all that residual resentment, and people watch his descent with glee. But the systems and culture he put in place (yes, eventually enabled into a self-sustaining feedback loop by Brady’s greatness) were real and he revolutionized roster construction and schematic adaptability in a unique way. I’m never really interested in the granular details of “who is the single greatest” debates, I’m more of a tiers/era guy. Belichick is a great. 

 

In my case, I definitely lean towards Brady. I think there's enough evidence that Belichick was very good early on and is probably simply too old now, and the team too denuded of quality FO and Coaching talent (not to mention on the field talent) but I also think people soft peddle Brady far too much. Yes he was less prioritized, especially during the first title run but that was also his first season of starting, period. He nearly doubled up TD's versus ints his first 3 seasons, his first 3 playoff runs he had 11 TD's vs 3 ints. Listen to the players talk about it, even the vets from those early teams and wow. 

 

I think there's no questioning Brady, period. 

 

Belichick is more complicated. Poor with the Browns, poor post Brady, production with Brady and that '08 season w/o him was damn good. 

 

Its hard to sort, but in fairness to them, nearly all HOF coaches are the opposite of Joe Gibbs, nearly all of them are tied, career wise, to a HOF QB. It's only Gibbs who basically coached mostly with league average QB's and turned the teams around them into 3 michelin star quality sides. No other coach I can think of did that. Not Bellichick, not Walsh, not Landry, nobody, not Lombardi, nobody. 

[skinsfan66]

2 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

 

 

What's the difference Young 2nd Sweat 3rd. Would that make some happy if it worked out this way these results? We got what we wanted. Turn out the lights, its over.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

Brady became more likable

FWIW, him kindof ditching his wife and kids to play another year of football in Tampa didn't do much for me in the likability factor.  

 

Dude has always been a douche.  From the time he broke up with his pregnant girlfriend Bridget Moynahan to date Giselle, he's been a prick.  Though he did have the slow clap award of the century when he was on a radio interview and said "what is this world coming to when you get **** for sleeping with Giselle Bundchen." This was slightly before his first child was born to another woman, who happened to be a movie star. But great quote.  

 

To each their own.  The guy is the GOAT.   But he'll always be a DBag to me.   

23 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I consult with HR all the time.  Move the hire date back, pay the guy a signing bonus.  Problem solved.  Also, if HR has a problem with this, find new HR. 

 

 

23 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

If the Bears give up a high 2nd for a player who leaves after a year and a half, that is going to be Dan/Vinny level of stupid on their part.  

 

I love not being the stupid ones.  

[The Consigliere]

6 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

FWIW, him kindof ditching his wife and kids to play another year of football in Tampa didn't do much for me in the likability factor.  

 

Dude has always been a douche.  From the time he broke up with his pregnant girlfriend Bridget Moynahan to date Giselle, he's been a prick.  Though he did have the slow clap award of the century when he was on a radio interview and said "what is this world coming to when you get **** for sleeping with Giselle Bundchen." This was slightly before his first child was born to another woman, who happened to be a movie star. But great quote.  

 

To each their own.  The guy is the GOAT.   But he'll always be a DBag to me.   

I consult with HR all the time.  Move the hire date back, pay the guy a signing bonus.  Problem solved.  Also, if HR has a problem with this, find new HR. 

 

 

If the Bears give up a high 2nd for a player who leaves after a year and a half, that is going to be Dan/Vinny level of stupid on their part.  

 

I love not being the stupid ones.  

 

They already did that last year, and the guy didn't even last a full season. So yeah, for now anyway, Bears fans are held hostage by incompetent ownership who have violated the #1 rule of being an owner. Never give a coach/F.O. a mulligan season so they can ----- your team out of future assets to win now to save their own paycheck. 

[CapsSkins]

9 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

If the Bears give up a high 2nd for a player who leaves after a year and a half, that is going to be Dan/Vinny level of stupid on their part.  

 

I love not being the stupid ones.  

 

I'm guessing they plan to tag him & offer a long-term deal. Don't see him turning down a big deal to play on the tag but maybe he wants to go home to Atlanta that badly?

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by CapsSkins

[Koolblue13]

The Bears are so dumb. We obviously didn't want to trade him and were forcing Atlanta to make a better offer and the Bears ran in and forced our hand. Thank you stupid bears.

[Skinsinparadise]

Yeah I wondered the same, didn't see anything for Chase, maybe I missed it

 

 

 

[Buddha]

There are no news stories for the trade on either the Commanders or the Niners websites.  Perhaps they are waiting until he passes a physical before formally announcing it?

[Conn]

4 minutes ago, Buddha said:

There are no news stories for the trade on either the Commanders or the Niners websites.  Perhaps they are waiting until he passes a physical before formally announcing it?

I would guess this is it, it’s not technically final yet 

[peanut0862]

2 minutes ago, Conn said:

I would guess this is it, it’s not technically final yet 

Ron said at his presser today that since the 49er's are off this week the trade is taking longer to finalize

[KDawg]

Wouldn’t it be awkward if he failed the physical? 
 

Anyways, I thought it was because they want Sweat to come back after they rented him out. Chase… not so much? 

[Conn]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

Wouldn’t it be awkward if he failed the physical? 
 

Anyways, I thought it was because they want Sweat to come back after they rented him out. Chase… not so much? 

I think you would still direct the social media team to play nice about it either way. I’m sure a post will come when it’s final (especially now that it’s been noticed lol) 

[petey hodge]

 

BUST YOUNG....  say it with me.  BUST YOUNG

 

 

[KDawg]

11 minutes ago, Conn said:

I think you would still direct the social media team to play nice about it either way. I’m sure a post will come when it’s final (especially now that it’s been noticed lol) 

I don’t know, man. I think you may be right and most teams would. But the slander coming out of the Park kinda makes me think they low key hated the guy for years. Explains a lot, too.

 

nevermind, they posted one

 

Edited November 2, 2023 by KDawg

[MartinC]

5 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Well, I guess my point is there aren't a lot of core guys to begin with. 

 

I think it's hard to say "the core is there" when the core consists of 7 guys, it's hard to say there is a real core to build around.

 

That said, if one of those guys is Howell, and the QB question is answered, that's a HUGE piece we haven't had in years.

 

I just think the team is going to look vastly different next year.  Partially because they need to get better, and partially because they have so few guys under contract.  

 

I completely mis-judged this year's team, specifically on defense.  I thought the defense would be at the same level or better than last year's defense.  Boy was I wrong.  

How many teams truly have a core of more than say 10 guys? Key is one of them has to be the QB.

 

I think it’s established that the core positions you need a blue chipper in are QB, LT (or RT if your QB is a lefty), WR, EDGE/passrusher and CB. I don’t think our issue is the number of roster spots we need to fill it’s that we don’t really have a true all pro or even perennial pro bowler at any of those spots. 
 

Closest we have is Terry at WR plus Jon Allen and Payne at DT (though they have not been generating sacks this season). Sam is showing everything we could have asked or expected so far (apart from a few less sacks please!) he may become that QB but we need to see a lot more for that be ticked off. But let’s assume he does become that guy, we need to find a stud LT, Edge and CB and that’s likely via the draft because studs in their prime at those positions don’t become avail often and if they do they cost you top top dollar.

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 minutes ago, MartinC said:

How many teams truly have a core of more than say 10 guys? Key is one of them has to be the QB.

 

I think it’s established that the core positions you need a blue chipper in are QB, LT (or RT if your QB is a lefty), WR, EDGE/passrusher and CB. I don’t think our issue is the number of roster spots we need to fill it’s that we don’t really have a true all pro or even perennial pro bowler at any of those spots. 
 

Closest we have is Terry at WR plus Jon Allen and Payne at DT (though they have not been generating sacks this season). Sam is showing everything we could have asked or expected so far (apart from a few less sacks please!) he may become that QB but we need to see a lot more for that be ticked off. But let’s assume he does become that guy, we need to find a stud LT, Edge and CB through and that’s likely via the draft because studs in their prime at those positions don’t become avail often and if they do they cost you top top dollar.

Yeah, you put it well. 
 

I guess when I think of core, I think of blue chip type players and I’d argue we have maybe 2 of those in total.  Allen and Payne. Maybe McLaurin.  

 

We have some building blocks.  
 

But we need blue chip players everywhere.  
 

We were supposed to have it on the DL but it never happened.