tshile Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 13 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said: Interest rates are generally low when the economy sucks right? Um. I’m not an economist but I dont think that’s how that works? there are times when the fed lowers rates to deal with liquidity traps caused by an economic crisis. The QE’s and the financial/housing melt down being the most recent. otherwise I believe interest rates are tied to the freds stated desire to target 2% inflation. I believe rates went up to combat inflation. I also believe the fed is generally concerned about creating a big shock, and over the years expressed concern that their interest rate moves were not having the impact on inflation they expected. I don’t think it’s simply a sign of a good/bad economy last thought - people have been spoiled by low rates during QE. I believe big picture we still have interest rates lower than historical average post-gold standard. People want 2.75% mortgages and 0% new car auto loans. They got used to them. So now what they see are horrific rates, when in reality it’s on the lower end of historic averages. And of course when I hear average people talk, they blame Biden for higher interest rates 🤦🏼♂️ you can be driven mad listening to what average people have to say about what’s going on, why, and whom to blame. especially given our current culture where if you try to participate in the conversation and share the real data and situation, you’re viewed as an elitest talking down to them and are ignored and viewed as an enemy of the state. 🤦🏼♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 (edited) 44 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said: Interest rates are generally low when the economy sucks right? This is generally correct, but leaves out the part about there being lots of different interest rates. Below is a graph of the Federal Funds Rate, the key rate the Federal Reserve controls, for the last 20 years. It is the interest rate at which banks lend excess reserves to other depository institutions overnight. You will note that rates crashed in 2000 coinciding with the Early 2000's Recession, then crept back up until they crashed again with the housing bubble leading to the Great Recession in late 2007, stayed at rock bottom during that recession, then started creeping back up as we got out of that, then crashed as hard as possible during Covid when the economy largely shut down for a few months. Now that the economy is running hot, leading to inflation, the Fed raised rates in order to essentially pump the brakes to avoid another recession (which seems to have been successful). The Fed recently announced it expects to lower the Fed Funds rate 3 times this year. #ElitistData. Edited March 27 by PleaseBlitz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 3 hours ago, tshile said: I personally, would prefer the Biden team stick to their real accomplishments, point out how the republicans are hampering the government and making it dysfunctional, and be more honest (or at least more connect to how people feel) when it comes to talking about average people’s lives. im also not a political strategist and one might look at me and think I’m an idiot for thinking that way 🤷♂️ This is a good post. It comes off as tone deaf and insulting to tell people who are experiencing a problem that your metrics tell you they are wrong. Take another aspect of life other than personal finance. If you went to your doctor and said you were vomiting 3x per day...it would frustrate the **** out of you if they ran a couple tests and sent you home feeling nuts telling you that their tests told you that you shouldn't be feeling sick. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 (edited) 13 hours ago, tshile said: they keep pointing to numbers and missing the fact that life became significantly more expensive lately and people are still unhappy about it. it’s a shortcoming in economics. Always idealistic and forever bound to a numbers-only approach. They’re like sports fans that are overly into analytics, forgetting sometimes what you see in action is more important than the numbers on a chart. People also need to look at what they're spending money on and how ****ing good they have it. Buzzette makes low 6 figures. I make about $70k after taxes. Definitely good money but not killing it either. We live IN a major metropolitan city. I've got a luxury vehicle less than 3 years old paid off. I own my harley. Gas isn't so ridiculous that it's preventing me from going somewhere. We really don't want for anything. We eat out 4-5 times a week. We have season tickets for the Orioles. We don't even bother asking each other if spending less than $5k or so. A very large portion of America is doing great if they're being honest. They can afford their priorities. They just need to be honest about what their priorities actually are. Edit: and we are also able to still put significant amounts monthly into stock and 401k plans. So it's not like we're mortgaging the future. Edited March 27 by TheGreatBuzz 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 I agree peoples expectations are out of whack. I watch people buy a brand new iPhone pro max, then complain about financial struggles. one place I very much disagree with the liberals on is the notion of what is and isn’t fair when it comes to expectations about what you have in life. but in the context of the thread/subject of the discussion, generally it seems people vote how they feel. If they feel things are OK or better, they tend to vote to keep what we have. If they feel it’s worse than OK, they tend to vote for change. To me we have the republicans pushing negative outlooks and highlighting bad things, we have the Biden team that seems disconnected as we’ve discussed wondering why they can’t run victory laps, and we have a public that’s not very good at details or separating causality. All of this adds up to a bad situation for the Biden team. I still would prefer to think that as they unleash their war chest, and we get closer and Trump maybe gets in more trouble but at least is still in the news for numerous crimes, abortion… that the general public will reject Trump. I just have zero confidence, because on top of everything else it just never seems the traditional rules (of anything) apply to Trump… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted March 27 Author Share Posted March 27 4 hours ago, tshile said: Not run around talking about how awesome everything is, and complaining that the rest of us “don’t get it” ? Thats what started this conversation. We have economic indicators that say one things and a society that mostly seems to feel the other way. No one gives a **** about the unemployment rate or the inflation rate when day-to-day they see a significantly more expensive life than how they felt about things a few years ago. Telling them they’re “wrong” because they don’t appreciate the latest jobs report, is the definition of being disconnected from the majority of the people. most people can’t disconnect the stock market performance from the health of the economy, you want them to table what’s in their face day to day because economists have formulas that say this number is better today than it was a few years ago? There is a total disconnect here. That’s the point we’re making. Some of us have been making it for a while - dating back to when the Biden admin foolishly used the Covid recovery to try to pitch that they belong in the history books for creating the best economic situation. my wife and I have doubled our income since Covid first started. Even we see the impact of all that inflation, labor wage increases, supply crisis, chip crisis, etc. I can only imagine how a household with a closer to stagnant income growth is feeling. I know some outspoken, long term dem supporters that like to talk about the numbers. Everyone else I know is complaining about how expensive it is to do basic stuff anymore. What anyone thinks about the republicans is irrelevant - the issue is how people feel about the current situation, which translates into how they feel about Biden, and it seems to not be great, and then the Biden admin and dems basically take the approach of telling everyone that is unhappy that the real problem is “you all just don’t get it” this is a problem. And that’s why they could to lose to future convict Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 44 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said: People also need to look at what they're spending money on and how ****ing good they have it. Buzzette makes low 6 figures. I make about $70k after taxes. Definitely good money but not killing it either. We live IN a major metropolitan city. I've got a luxury vehicle less than 3 years old paid off. I own my harley. Gas isn't so ridiculous that it's preventing me from going somewhere. We really don't want for anything. We eat out 4-5 times a week. We have season tickets for the Orioles. We don't even bother asking each other if spending less than $5k or so. A very large portion of America is doing great if they're being honest. They can afford their priorities. They just need to be honest about what their priorities actually are. Edit: and we are also able to still put significant amounts monthly into stock and 401k plans. So it's not like we're mortgaging the future. That's fair and my wife and I aren't much different than that. A couple comments on this outlook though: 1) I don't think this is representative of the entire country, so we too might risk being tone deaf, and 2) Doing all of these things today costs far more than it did just a few years ago and results in less money leftover. 32 minutes ago, tshile said: I agree peoples expectations are out of whack. I watch people buy a brand new iPhone pro max, then complain about financial struggles. one place I very much disagree with the liberals on is the notion of what is and isn’t fair when it comes to expectations about what you have in life. but in the context of the thread/subject of the discussion, generally it seems people vote how they feel. If they feel things are OK or better, they tend to vote to keep what we have. If they feel it’s worse than OK, they tend to vote for change. To me we have the republicans pushing negative outlooks and highlighting bad things, we have the Biden team that seems disconnected as we’ve discussed wondering why they can’t run victory laps, and we have a public that’s not very good at details or separating causality. All of this adds up to a bad situation for the Biden team. I still would prefer to think that as they unleash their war chest, and we get closer and Trump maybe gets in more trouble but at least is still in the news for numerous crimes, abortion… that the general public will reject Trump. I just have zero confidence, because on top of everything else it just never seems the traditional rules (of anything) apply to Trump… I agree with you that too many people expect that they are entitled to too much even if they cannot afford it. That said, to me it's simply the comparison of what they could afford a few years ago vs. now. The same items (whether they were entitled to them or not) cost far too much compared to 3-5 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCSaints_fan Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 (edited) 3 hours ago, The Evil Genius said: Interest rates are generally low when the economy sucks right? Since the 70s generally yes. I think maybe a brief period in the early 90s where it didn't align. The Fed really doesn't like inflation. We like being the world's reserve currency and if people have to eat Noodle Ramen out of a tent in order to maintain stable value of the USD, well too bad for them. Edited March 27 by DCSaints_fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 (edited) Maybe we should reconsider the term entitlements then since there's so much concern about people feeling entitled to them. Doesn't help when other countries do a better job of addressing these concerns, like affordable Healthcare and College, or that average rent and home prices have completely blown past relative wage growth. Comparing wanting a new iPhone to realizing what used to be realistic isn't as much anymore or forcing choices previous generations had a much different time with is not keeping the conversation honest. There isn't a single state in the country where federal minimum wage is enough for a 1 bedroom apartment, this shouldn't be normal, it shouldn't be spoiled to call this out as fundamentally broken. Edited March 28 by Renegade7 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted March 28 Author Share Posted March 28 3 hours ago, Cooked Crack said: If Obama had a Hitler bloodline; wouldn’t the right wing actually like him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 19 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said: If Obama had a Hitler bloodline; wouldn’t the right wing actually like him? Yeah but his long form birth certificate would say Germany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 3 hours ago, Renegade7 said: Comparing wanting a new iPhone to realizing what used to be realistic isn't as much anymore or forcing choices previous generations had a much different time with is not keeping the conversation honest. Neither is pretending that the vast majority of the dip****s complaining are actually under that kind of stress. The majority of those complaining are yelling it from their lifted Denali with 24" rims. The ones who REALLY are suffering are working too damn much to have time to complain. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 9 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said: Neither is pretending that the vast majority of the dip****s complaining are actually under that kind of stress. The majority of those complaining are yelling it from their lifted Denali with 24" rims. The ones who REALLY are suffering are working too damn much to have time to complain. Believe this. Having said that, everyone has a megaphone in their pocket now, not everyone uses it. So on the one hand I see my fair share of folks young and older then me going through it, same as you. On the other there's a whole ass subreddit jus for my generation and everyone once in a while I feel the need to level set on the difference between complaining on **** every generation has had to deal with versus issues much more specific to our generation and the statistics that support it. They are NOT the same thing. I have a cousin younger then me with a son around same age as my daughters, he don't have Twitter or none of those platforms to be raging about how the world screwed him or a new iPhone to do it with. He jus started orientation on his new job today, keep having to remind him I'm proud of him to keep him encouraged. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergasun Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Why aren't big corps railing against house prices, education and medical costs? All those costs go into what they need to pay employees. This is what I don't get. Ramping that up will ramp up compensation, prices and cut into profit. This is what makes zero sense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokerPacker Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 1 hour ago, Fergasun said: Why aren't big corps railing against house prices, education and medical costs? All those costs go into what they need to pay employees. This is what I don't get. Ramping that up will ramp up compensation, prices and cut into profit. This is what makes zero sense. If all those costs went into what they need to pay employees, they'd be paying employees a lot more. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Trump’s tariff plan would cost families $1,500 a year, Democratic group finds Former President Donald Trump’s idea to implement a 10% tariff on all imported goods would spike prices by as much as $1,500 annually for American families, according to a new analysis from a top Democrat-aligned group first shared with Semafor. Published by the Center for American Progress Action Fund, the report estimates that yearly costs would rise by $90 for food, $90 for pharmaceutical drugs, and $120 oil-related products like gasoline. The analysis provides an early look at how Democrats will likely use Trump’s trade plans to try and undercut his advantage with voters on the issue of inflation. “A lot of that will take the form of price increases at the grocery store, at the gas pump, at the car dealership and on Amazon,” Brendan Duke, a senior director of economic policy at CAP and report co-author, told Semafor. “In an election over the cost of living, we have a candidate who’s proposing a $1,500 tax increase.” Click on the link for the full article 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dfitzo53 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 17 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said: People also need to look at what they're spending money on and how ****ing good they have it. Buzzette makes low 6 figures. I make about $70k after taxes. Definitely good money but not killing it either. We live IN a major metropolitan city. I've got a luxury vehicle less than 3 years old paid off. I own my harley. Gas isn't so ridiculous that it's preventing me from going somewhere. We really don't want for anything. We eat out 4-5 times a week. We have season tickets for the Orioles. We don't even bother asking each other if spending less than $5k or so. A very large portion of America is doing great if they're being honest. They can afford their priorities. They just need to be honest about what their priorities actually are. Edit: and we are also able to still put significant amounts monthly into stock and 401k plans. So it's not like we're mortgaging the future. You are making well above the household median income and you don't have kids. It stands to reason that you feel very comfortable with your finances. I'm not sure what you mean by "a very large portion of America" as I can imagine a lot of reasonable interpretations of that phrase, but I think you have to recognize there are going to be plenty of people whose financial outlook is different than yours even if they're being responsible with their money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 58 minutes ago, dfitzo53 said: You are making well above the household median income and you don't have kids. It stands to reason that you feel very comfortable with your finances. True. But I also spend on orioles tickets what it cost to raise a kid per year. Yes I'm above median but I also spend way above median. The point wasn't that I'm doing great on so little. The point was that money is there for a lot of people, they just suck at being responsible. 1 hour ago, dfitzo53 said: I'm not sure what you mean by "a very large portion of America" as I can imagine a lot of reasonable interpretations of that phrase Well with some overly broad but probably not far off generalizations, I'd bet 90% of the people at a Trump rally are actually doing just fine or better financially. Outside of them, I'd say 50% of general people ****ing have plenty of money but are just greedy or have crappy priorities. Then another 20%? really could just use some budgeting education. Now subtract the people that actually ARE in rough spots but don't have time to complain. Some rough math and that's what, 80% of society either isn't struggling or at least shouldn't be. Add: also, this conversation came from people comparing themselves to 4 years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmirOfShmo Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsfan1311 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 16 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said: True. But I also spend on orioles tickets what it cost to raise a kid per year. Yes I'm above median but I also spend way above median. The point wasn't that I'm doing great on so little. The point was that money is there for a lot of people, they just suck at being responsible. Well with some overly broad but probably not far off generalizations, I'd bet 90% of the people at a Trump rally are actually doing just fine or better financially. Outside of them, I'd say 50% of general people ****ing have plenty of money but are just greedy or have crappy priorities. Then another 20%? really could just use some budgeting education. Now subtract the people that actually ARE in rough spots but don't have time to complain. Some rough math and that's what, 80% of society either isn't struggling or at least shouldn't be. Add: also, this conversation came from people comparing themselves to 4 years ago. Great points....and I agree with a lot of your post...especially the "suck at being responsible" statement. That said...if you spend on O's tickets what it costs to raise a kid per year.........do you have the Diamond Plan at Camden yards? 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Skinsfan1311 said: Great points....and I agree with a lot of your post...especially the "suck at being responsible" statement. That said...if you spend on O's tickets what it costs to raise a kid per year.........do you have the Diamond Plan at Camden yards? 😉 No. We're black plan I think? But we also go to alot of games outside our plan. I think last year we spent about $15k total. Add: Have you seen my view? Edited March 28 by TheGreatBuzz 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsfan1311 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 14 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said: No. We're black plan I think? But we also go to alot of games outside our plan. I think last year we spent about $15k total. Add: Have you seen my view? NICE! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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