Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Wildbunny]

12 minutes ago, The 12th Commandment said:

Ukraine for all their heroism and admirable spirit, is more corrupt than Sweden or Finland.  They're working in the right direction, by all the evidence we have, but they weren't/aren't at the same level of development.  I think we are supporting them more than they probably expected.

That's true, but I believe that's a necessary step when going from autocracy to democracy. You still have to deal with parts of the old regime and get rid of them to reach democracy.

 

Which makes their acceptance into EU even more important. They are probably not ready to get in it, but that would help them reaching their goal.

 

It'll be a long and chaotic process for them, but we definately have to help and protect them all the way.

[DogofWar1]

Erdogan being weird on Finland and Sweden.  Not ideal.

[Larry]

2 hours ago, tshile said:

How does nato accept Sweden and Finland, but not ukraine?

 

Being invaded by Russia is a pre-existing condition.  

[RansomthePasserby]

21 hours ago, The Sisko said:

OK, so that's enough Orcs to last them another what, two days or so? Way to go Putie.

Depends on how many rivers they have to cross. 

[China]

Ukraine war: Russia nationalises Renault's Moscow plant

 

Renault has announced it is selling its majority stake in Russian carmaker Avtovaz, following pressure over its continued presence in the country.

 

The French carmaker said it would sell its 68% interest to a Russian science institute, while its shares in Renault Russia will go to the city of Moscow.

 

Moscow said Renault's Russian assets had now become state property.

 

It is the first Russian nationalisation of a major foreign business since the invasion of Ukraine.

 

"Agreements were signed on the transfer of Russian assets of the Renault Group to the Russian Federation and the government of Moscow," Russia's industry and trade ministry said.

 

Financial details of the deal were not provided, but in April Russian Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov said Renault planned to sell its Russian assets for "one symbolic rouble".

 

Click on the link for the full article

[visionary]

Damn it, Turkey!

 

 

[DCSaints_fan]

4 hours ago, tshile said:

How does nato accept Sweden and Finland, but not ukraine?

 

Because they were blocked by many European states, including Germany and France.  Ukraine would probably have been in NATO by 2010 if it were solely up to the US.

 

4 hours ago, PeterMP said:

 

The issue with accepting Ukraine for a while has been that they don't have control of all of the territory that the claim.  In that way, they aren't truly a functional state and upon admittance could invoke Article 5.  

No, I don't think that would block them.  Spain and the UK are both NATO members despite their disputes over Gibraltar.  Turkey and Greece are at cross purposes over Cyprus.  And these are all countries which are in NATO.

 

Although the language would almost certainly would have to be modified through an additional article (such as what happened with French Algeria).  Such language would probably say something like Ukraine could invoke Article 5 but only if they were attacked in certain areas.  This would amount to Ukraine semi-legitimizing the areas under Russian control, probably Crimea at the very least.  I don't think they're ready to do that.

[FootballZombie]

Turkey may be angling to get some kick backs here.

 

“First of all, we would not say ‘yes’ to those who impose sanctions on Turkey joining NATO, which is a security organization." - Turkey Prez

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/05/16/Turkey-s-Erdogan-says-will-not-approve-Sweden-and-Finland-joining-NATO

 

 

Its possible they are seeing this as an opportunity to get sanctions levied against them from prospective member nations removed. They have the power to deny any member from joining NATO, so they would essentially have both Finland and Sweden by the balls. If sanctions against Turkey from these prospective nations were to suddenly "disappear" Turkey can essentially get something more out of this by doing nothing. That would be a massive Win/Win from their perspective.

 

I'm not saying the sanctions are the only sticking point, but some palms are very likely to get greased in regards to them soon.

[DogofWar1]

IIRC a nation can specifically state that they won't invoke article V regarding certain territories or events, but my guess is that Ukraine wasn't going to say that regarding all of Crimea and the Donbas, esp bc the area of control of the Donbas the separatists had wasn't completely locked in.

 

________________

 

This dude has been on Russian tv a few times and generally paints a grim picture for R's prospects.

 

 

That he's been allowed on their shows multiple times tells us it's not a fluke.  Now, how much further to read into that I dunno.

[Wildbunny]

46 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

Turkey may be angling to get some kick backs here.

 

“First of all, we would not say ‘yes’ to those who impose sanctions on Turkey joining NATO, which is a security organization." - Turkey Prez

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/05/16/Turkey-s-Erdogan-says-will-not-approve-Sweden-and-Finland-joining-NATO

 

 

Its possible they are seeing this as an opportunity to get sanctions levied against them from prospective member nations removed. They have the power to deny any member from joining NATO, so they would essentially have both Finland and Sweden by the balls. If sanctions against Turkey from these prospective nations were to suddenly "disappear" Turkey can essentially get something more out of this by doing nothing. That would be a massive Win/Win from their perspective.

 

I'm not saying the sanctions are the only sticking point, but some palms are very likely to get greased in regards to them soon.

That's my idea of it, Erdogan is playing is own partition here because he can benefits from it on a thing or two.

 

Sweden and Finland will make it into NATO as Erdogan will say yes once he'll get what he wants.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Wildbunny said:

That's my idea of it, Erdogan is playing is own partition here because he can benefits from it on a thing or two.

 

Sweden and Finland will make it into NATO as Erdogan will say yes once he'll get what he wants.

 

Can a country be kicked out of NATO? Asking for a friend.

[mcsluggo]

Erdogan has an election next year, and he has SERIOUSLY ****ed up their economy.    He has gone through ministers' of finance like he is Matt Gaetz, and they are high school students.   He eventually hired his son in law as min fin (and quickly fired him too). He has over and over and over stated that he believes that high interest rates lead to inflation (so the way to fight inflation is to loosen the money supply) and has been hiring min-fin based on the criteria of whether they will agree on him over this.   The currency has three major crisis events over the lasy 18 or so months... and it is stabilized right now because of some non-transparent injection of reserves from uncertain persion gulf countries.  Inflation right now is 70% and rising rapidly (and unlike the rest of the world, he can NOT blame russia or suppy chain shocks--- they are less than 10% of the culprit for Turkey).

 

expect Erdogan to pull MANY political stunts "showing how mighty he is standing up to the US/Nato/Russia..." over the next several months to try to fluff his support.   Jingoism is his last available  card.  Also , expect a rapid acceleration of anti-democratic policies that he has already been ramming through for at least 6 years.    

 

By the end of 2023, Turkey will either be a dictatorship, or Erdogan will be gone.

[DCSaints_fan]

4 hours ago, visionary said:

Damn it, Turkey!

If its appeasing Turkey isn't possible there should probably just be an alliance between all the Nordic countries + US and UK.  That should be more than enough to deter Russia.

Edited May 16, 2022 by DCSaints_fan

[Recovering_Spaz]

53 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Can a country be kicked out of NATO? Asking for a friend.

 

Can Erdogan be kicked out of Turkey? Asking for a friend

[DogofWar1]

You know.

 

Some of us have made mistakes in life.

 

But have you ever made a "made the Swiss reconsider neutrality" level mistake?

 

Probably not.

 

 

[China]

Sweden announces it WILL follow Helsinki and apply to join NATO as furious Putin warns of a 'response' and 'moves nuclear-capable missiles to Finland’s border'

 

Sweden has said it will join Finland in bidding for membership of NATO, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine prompted an 'historic' shift away from decades of neutrality.

 

Magdalena Andersson, the Swedish prime minister, announced the move on Monday - just a day after Finnish counterpart Sanna Marin tabled her own bid. 

 

Andersson said the move was being made in conjunction with Helsinki and marks 'a historic change in our country's security policy' which has relied on a pledge of neutrality to deter attacks since the Napoleonic era.

Russia also reacted to the news on Monday, as video showed a battery of Iskander ballistic missile launchers - which can carry nukes - moving towards the border.

 

Iskander missile launchers -capable of firing nuclear warheads up to 300 miles - were filmed moving through Russia today, reportedly on the way to the Finnish border

 

Click on the link for the full article

[PokerPacker]

4 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

You know.

 

Some of us have made mistakes in life.

 

But have you ever made a "made the Swiss reconsider neutrality" level mistake?

 

Probably not.

 

 

A feat even Hitler failed to manage.

[EmirOfShmo]

 

[China]

Russia Lost A Third Of Its Forces In Ukraine. Now It’s Losing The War.

 

In the 82 days since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, the Russian military has lost a third of its forces, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry.

 

That’s tens of thousands of dead soldiers, sailors and airmen plus thousands of wrecked armored vehicles, a dozen sunk or damaged ships and boats and more than a hundred shot-down aircraft.

 

The heavy losses are contributing to a spiral of declining combat effectiveness. As Russia writes off more and more of its best weaponry and buries more of its best-trained troops, it increasingly counts on old weapons and under-trained troops to sustain its war effort.

 

But obsolescent weapons and second-tier troops get blown up and killed even faster than do the modern and first-line weapons and troops they replaced. It’s not for no reason that, with each passing week, the Kremlin ratchets down its war aims.

 

As recently as a few weeks ago, many analysts gave the Russian army an even chance of encircling Ukrainian forces in Donbas and achieving its goal of “demilitarizing” Ukraine.

 

A Russian victory no longer seems likely, or even plausible. “Russia’s Donbas offensive has lost momentum and fallen significantly behind schedule,” the U.K. Defense Ministry concluded on Sunday. “Despite small-scale initial advances, Russia has failed to achieve substantial territorial gains over the past month whilst sustaining consistently high levels of attrition.”

 

It’s not hard to explain Russia’s military failures. The army deployed around 125 battalion tactical groups with more than 100,000 troops—the majority of its active ground force—for the Ukraine campaign. But these BTGs never had enough trained infantry to support the tanks and artillery.

 

Tanks rolled unprotected along highways, all but inviting Ukrainian missile teams and artillery gunners to ambush them. The analysts at Oryx blog have confirmed the destruction of 361 Russian tanks. The Ukrainians have captured another 239 Russian tanks that Oryx can confirm.

 

That’s a fifth of the tanks the Russian army had in service before the war. As more of the best T-90 and T-72B3 tanks explode, often hurling their turrets straight into the air, the Kremlin increasingly is sending 1979-vintage T-72As into the fight—and losing them in large numbers, too.

 

 

The Russian air force never achieved lasting air-superiority over Ukraine, owing in equal measure to rigid doctrine, munitions shortfalls and heroic resistance by Ukrainian air-defense troops.

 

Three months into the war, Ukrainian missileers still are shooting down Russian fighters and drones. 

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

[Larry]

1 hour ago, China said:

In the 82 days since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, the Russian military has lost a third of its forces, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry.

 

Observing that the definition of "decimated" is losing a tenth of your force.  And, a tenth of the ones on the battlefield, not a tenth of your entire nation's army.  

[Dan T.]

Erdogan is the Joe Manchin Rand Paul of NATO.

[visionary]

 

[DogofWar1]

If there was an agreement regarding the Avozstal defenders and Russia goes back on it, well, I don't know how this war reaches anything resembling even a ceasefire so long as Putin draws breath.

 

Just utterly ridiculous.

[tshile]

Seems to fit with what they do though. Siege tactics. Setting up cease fire corridors for evacuation then attacking the people leaving. Mass graves. Planting land mines in farm fields. 
 

they seem to believe in barbaric war tactics.

 

I’m not under any impression that we don’t have our own issues with things when we go to war. We’ve all seen enough headlines, you know what I’m talking about. And that’s just the **** that makes it into the public. 
 

but this is some uncivilized stuff, and it’s not isolated it’s across the board SOP for them. 
 

for all intents and purposes they should be treated the same way we treat a terrorist organization. You can’t trust anything they say and they only safe thing to do is beat them back to where you’re comfortable and make sure they stay there. 

[China]

'The whole world is against us': Retired colonel gives damning assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine on state TV as he urges Putin to 'get out of' the conflict

 

Russian state media's trumped-up narrative of Putin's glorious war in Ukraine was last night shattered by a retired colonel who gave an unusually frank and damning assessment of the situation on the frontlines and world stage.

 

Mikhail Khodarenok, a former air defence commander and graduate of some of the Soviet Union's top military schools, used his platform on one of Russia's most-watched talk shows to warn that the war is going badly and is likely to get worse, and that nuclear sabre-rattling - far from being threatening - actually 'looks quite amusing'.

 

Ukraine, he said, will soon have mobilised more than a million soldiers who will be trained by the West and equipped with modern weapons, ready to fight and die to protect their homeland against Russia.

Batting aside repeated interruption from propagandist Olga Skabeyeva that the army will be mostly made of conscripts, Khodarenok insisted that how an army is recruited is irrelevant - what really matters is willingness to fight, and Ukraine 'intends to fight to the last man.'

 

Russia's position on the world stage is no better, he added, pointing out that 'we are in full geopolitical isolation, and that, however much we would hate to admit this, virtually the entire world is against us. And it's that situation that we need to get out of.'

 

Khodarenok's remarks, broadcast to millions of Russians who until now have been spoon-fed a narrative of their military's prowess and Ukraine's weakness, mark a stunning break with the state-sanctioned narrative and puts him at extreme odds with the Kremlin stooges stood to either side of him.

 

Click on the link for the full article and video

 

Any wagers on how long before this guy enjoys some polonium tea or is defenestrated?