Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Die Hard]

37 minutes ago, China said:

 

I don’t think what he said is necessarily wrong though. 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Well, the rehearsal ain’t goin well. 

[Riggo-toni]

They're comparing how their weapons systems are doing (hint: badly) against (mostly phased out) 1980s NATO weapons as a dress rehearsal to how they'll do against a full NATO army equipped with the latest tech?🤣

This might be the only occasion where W's infamous "Bring it on" declaration would be appropriate.

There are probably a half dozen countries who could wipe out Russia's army in a non nuclear war - US, UK, France, China, Israel.  Now imagine them united under NATO. There already was a dress rehearsal for how Russian equipment does against western weapons - we call it the Gulf War. And while Russian equipment has if anything degraded since then, thanks to corruption, western forces have undergone 30 years of further technological advancement.

Turkish Bayraktar drones are smacking down Russian forces, and they are downright primitive compared to Predators. And look at what old Stingers and Javelins are doing, and then remember the Stingers were already phased out

[Wildbunny]

3 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

10-15 years...idk, man, still doesn't feel right...

It wouldn't surprise much really.

 

Joining EU is much more than having a vote about it. If you apply, you have to abide to specific rules and standards regarding way too many differents domains like justice, human rights, and so on.

 

For comparison, some countries have been waiting for quite some time to join in. Some made it in a year (like Finland) but some have been waiting for decades (like Turkey, and they probably never will with Erdogan at the helm). Some have applied in 2004 and are still not in. And thus because of many different reasons, one of the main being the low level of economics, or border disputes with EU members...

 

And considering the state of EU right now, it's gonna need some serious changes in its constitution and such to remain efficient. The rule that force unanimous consent to do something is dragging EU backwards because there's too many countries. At some point, they'll have to go with majority voting to evolve, otherside it won't survive much more adhesion.

1 hour ago, Riggo-toni said:

There are probably a half dozen countries who could wipe out Russia's army in a non nuclear war - US, UK, France, China, Israel.

You are probably overestimating France's chances against Russia.

We would probably put a fight, but we're not gonna win a full scale war like what's going on in Ukraine by ourselves. We'd need help.

[FootballZombie]

I thought the words from the French were a bit of a retaliation for Ukraine constantly running lines about Macron trying to get them to surrender.

 

They don't want to make any confusion about joining NATO, but they are kinda waiving the finger and warning to stop making one of your current and future allies look bad.

[visionary]

 

[DogofWar1]

It's funny what that dude (who looks like he is on drugs) is saying in their propaganda because when they eventually pretend that whatever they took is totally what they wanted to do in the first place, they'll undoubtedly mention that they held back their best weapons (ie the T-14) and that's why they didn't conquer all of Ukraine super quick.

 

They huffing the copium reeeeeeeeal deeeeeeep.

[DCSaints_fan]

19 hours ago, Die Hard said:

I don’t think what he said is necessarily wrong though. 

They haven't had to deal with Western air forces, nor modern armor, or long range cruise missiles.

 

The only thing they're learning from this conflict is the West would absolutely clean their clock.

Edited May 23, 2022 by DCSaints_fan

[Die Hard]

3 minutes ago, DCSaints_fan said:

They haven't had to deal with Western air forces, nor modern armor, or long range cruise missiles.

 

The only thing they're learning from this conflict is the West would absolutely clean their clock.

I’m not in disagreement.

 

But the speaker doesn’t insinuate whether the conflict would be initiated as a provocation or in defense.

 

Perhaps he anticipates that NATO will inevitably attack?!? They do seem to be really threatened by it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Recovering_Spaz]

20 hours ago, Die Hard said:

I don’t think what he said is necessarily wrong though. 

 

That may have been the original intent, but their impotence on the battlefield compounded by their inability to replace lost men and equipment makes that wishful thinking. It's going to take Russia a long time to militarily recover from this fiasco, and they can't start that recovery until this conflict ends. Even then, they might be too corrupt to learn real lessons from all that went wrong, as well as implementing the proper changes. 

 

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by Recovering_Spaz
I just read your reply to DCSaints_fan, you can disregard my point.

[DogofWar1]

3 hours ago, Die Hard said:

Perhaps he anticipates that NATO will inevitably attack?!? They do seem to be really threatened by it.

This is a pervasive viewpoint among Soviet KGB types and those that jump on that bandwagon.

 

They're all amateur historians and know that everyone around them, has, at some point, taken a crack at them.  The Turks (as the Ottomans), the Poles, the French, the Germans, the Swedish, even the Japanese (kinda).

 

So they just sort of assume they will be attacked by SOMEONE, and the most obvious 2 possibilities are NATO/the US (or Britain) or China.  And they've gone to great lengths to be friends with China, and they also sort of assume NATO wants to come back to finish the job.

 

They also of course don't believe any ex-Soviet states deserve to have (sufficient) autonomy (to ally with anyone besides Russia), so from their perspective, NATO already "attacked" them in everything east of Germany.  And that's especially true once we factor in that Russia refuses to believe that any internal revolutions that lead to western-oriented governments could ever possibly come from, y'know, the people being fed up with crappy Russian puppets, and that all such geopolitical re-alignments MUST be orchestrated by the US/West/NATO.

[The Sisko]

21 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Well, the rehearsal ain’t goin well. 

Exclusive video footage from the dress rehearsal:

 

[DCSaints_fan]

5 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

This is a pervasive viewpoint among Soviet KGB types and those that jump on that bandwagon.

 

They're all amateur historians and know that everyone around them, has, at some point, taken a crack at them.  The Turks (as the Ottomans), the Poles, the French, the Germans, the Swedish, even the Japanese (kinda).

 

So they just sort of assume they will be attacked by SOMEONE, and the most obvious 2 possibilities are NATO/the US (or Britain) or China.  And they've gone to great lengths to be friends with China, and they also sort of assume NATO wants to come back to finish the job.

 

They also of course don't believe any ex-Soviet states deserve to have (sufficient) autonomy (to ally with anyone besides Russia), so from their perspective, NATO already "attacked" them in everything east of Germany.  And that's especially true once we factor in that Russia refuses to believe that any internal revolutions that lead to western-oriented governments could ever possibly come from, y'know, the people being fed up with crappy Russian puppets, and that all such geopolitical re-alignments MUST be orchestrated by the US/West/NATO.

Alot of people believe this, e.g., Peter Zeihan with his "Nine gaps" theory, but I'm not sure how much I actually believe it.

 

I think the bigger threat to Russia, or more correctly the Putin regime, is having this large state, with substantial shared history and culture right next to Russia that is a functional liberal democracy, not an autocratic kleptocracy with a sham democracy like Russia.  Putin had been used to using Ukraine, and lesser extent Belarus as an example to the Russian people why they can't have nice things.  So long as he could **** with Ukraine's internal politics, it wasn't a problem.  But if he started to lose control and Ukraine started to clamp down on the corruption, that's a real threat.  But a threat that is entire internal to Russia.  Because his own people might just start demanding the same thing.  Much like West Germany was a threat to the existence of Warsaw Pact/Soviet Union.  It had nothing to do with this fantasy of the Germans rolling tanks over the Vilnius.

 

This why Putin doesn't really care about Finland joining NATO.  The Finns are and always have been very different from Russia and Putin never had much influence over them anyway.

Edited May 24, 2022 by DCSaints_fan

[China]

 

[LD0506]

^Waiting for the GTA- Donbas to come out next spring

 

Ukraine is still getting supplied and supplied better as time goes on. Even the T-72s they have been getting from Poland, Slovakia, etc., have been maintained/upgraded/modernized better than their Russian opponent's equipment. The decommissioned Leopards that Germany is waffling about sending are far superior to their Russian counterparts, the Ukes have gotten up to speed on western artillery and it is starting to have an effect, upper tier anti-shipping missiles will be arriving soon, weapons that have the range and capability to schmack the Russian naval bases in Sevastopol if someone gets a bug up their ass to launch 'em at it. I found it encouraging to hear Zelensky state unequivocally that there could be no concessions of land for (temporary) peace. The combined arms doctrine that the West has practiced for decades, not only coordination of your Army and Air Force but coordination with the militaries of various other countries has paid off like the winner of the Kentucky derby. I don't see the Russians being able to duplicate it from the ground up quickly in the middle of a war. 

 

So where do we go from here? The Ukrainians are winning this war, period. Every day that it goes on the Russians lose more irreplaceable equipment, exhaust more of the logistical support and morale is in the ****ter for the Class C units driving towards the front past piles of better units still smoking by the road. But I do not see any scenario where Russia just says "ooops, my bad" and withdraws, too much loss of face and too hard to sell back home. Are they so genuinely stubborn that they will actually bleed themselves white, exhaust their reserves of armor and munitions and willingly accept sinking back to some standing in line for beets lifestyle just out of misplaced pride? They ARE very good at being hardheaded but damn, this much? And for what? 

 

May you live in interesting times

[DogofWar1]

Oh certainly, in the real world the bigger threat to Putin's regime is having a successful and thriving democracy sitting next door.  And I think that plays a large role in it too.  But there is definitely a perception in the Russian culture that they are always imminently about to be attacked.  It's not a view based on immediate realities on the ground, it's just based on a sort of permanent paranoia.  The most recent big invasion, after all, was the Nazis, who they had a peace deal with right up until the first tanks rolled over the border.

[DogofWar1]

Things are deteriorating on the smaller Luhansk encirclement front.

 

 

Kramatorsk in the middle of Donetsk still looks, currently, safe for the time being, Russia is pushing northeast from Popasna and there are reports they've reached the main road leading to Sievierodonetsk which would cut off resupply to the city.  A cauldron may be forming, behind the smaller cauldron the Russia is trying to form directly around the city.

 

Vaguely, the pushes Russia is being reported to have made seem to be something like I scribbled in red, and the blue is places there they might be able to do a full encirclement.

 

 

Sieveirodonetsk might become Mariupol 2.0 the way things are developing if troops don't choose to retreat.

 

More broadly this raises concerns about Ukrainian defense lines.  As of about May 7 they looked roughly like this:

 

With recent pushes the blue arc near Popasna has been pushed back pretty far, and I remember hearing they were abandoning Popasna to take up stronger pre-made defensive positions.  However, Russian advances seem to have gone far enough that they either went around those defenses, overran them, or pushed Ukraine back even farther.  In addition the left part of the defensive arc north of Popasna would need to have been pushed back and south a bit too.

[abdcskins]

I hardly pay attention to this war anymore, I just wonder how long it will last? Many years is my guess. Could be 2, could be 10. Could be forever. Wack.

 

Always baffles me how horrible human beings can be. Well, I guess it doesn't baffle me anymore, more like sickens me.

[88Comrade2000]

38 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

I hardly pay attention to this war anymore, I just wonder how long it will last? Many years is my guess. Could be 2, could be 10. Could be forever. Wack.

 

Always baffles me how horrible human beings can be. Well, I guess it doesn't baffle me anymore, more like sickens me.

It won’t last more than a year.

 

Putin will fight until he depletes his entire stockpile if he has to.

 

Ukraine can only fight if they keep on getting weapons from the west.

 

Eventually Ukraine won’t getting anything from Europe because the European people won’t put up with the economic pain and Europe will quickly run back to the teet of Mother Russia.

 

In the U.S. once the maga pop regains control in January; they will deny Biden any more funds for Urkraine.

 

Ukraine will be forced to settle and accept the loss of territory at some point.

Edited May 24, 2022 by 88Comrade2000

[DogofWar1]

Russia's stockpiles are running low too.

 

There are reports they are pulling T-62s out of storage.  You gotta be VERY deep into your deep storage to be pulling out a T-62.

 

 

Like that is a 2nd Gen Main Battle Tank from the 60's.  It's been replaced by the T-64, T-72, T-80, T-90, and the in development but not yet deployed T-14 Armada.

 

Russia's army mainly uses a combination of upgraded T-72s, T-80s, and T-90's, and they recently sent in some heavily modernized T-90's to much fanfare (a video of one being destroyed surfaced shortly thereafter).

 

This would be like the US sending in M-60 Pattons.  Un-upgraded Pattons, not like the newer ones we used into the late 80's like the A2/A3.

 

Now the theory is that Russia is trying to keep some T-72s from its stocks at home in case the conflict expands somehow, but regardless it's a bad BAD look for Russia if this turns out to be true.

[The Sisko]

If they're gonna be using T-62s, the Ukrainians can take those out with slingshots.

[88Comrade2000]

Economy bigger priority than punishing Russia: AP-NORC poll

[China]

Another Russian General Reported Dead in Ukraine

 

Three months into Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, another Russian general has reportedly been killed by Ukrainian forces.

 

Retired Russian Air Force Major General Kanamat Botashev, 63, has become the 13th general to die in Ukrainian territory since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, according to a tally by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense. (Russia’s Defense Ministry has confirmed only two, and U.S. officials have not given a specific number). He was reportedly shot down by Ukrainian forces over the Luhansk region on Sunday, becoming the highest-ranking air force commander to be killed in the war.

 

Ukraine’s military had announced the downing of an Su-25 fighter aircraft and released a photo of what it said was the burning aftermath. It said the pilot did not have time to eject.

 

The BBC’s Russian service said it managed to confirm Botashev’s death by speaking with several men who had previously been under his command and stayed in touch with him.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

Russia Says It Will Pay Foreign Debt in Rubles After US Ban

 

Russia says it will pay dollar-denominated foreign debt in rubles, a move that is likely to be seen by foreign investors as a default.

 

The U.S. Treasury Department led by Janet Yellen allowed a license to expire Wednesday that permitted Russia to keep paying its debtholders through American banks. The license applied to American investors and international investors who have dollar-denominated debt or bonds.

 

The Russian Finance Ministry said it will pay in rubles and offer “the opportunity for subsequent conversion into the original currency." The ministry didn’t give a timeframe for that to happen.

 

Russia has not defaulted on its international debts since the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution, when the Russian Empire collapsed and the Soviet Union was created. Russia defaulted on its domestic debts in the late 1990s during the Asian financial crisis but was able to recover from that default with the help of international aid.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

War hacks: How outgunned Ukraine finds ways to counter Russia

 

There are two important things to know about military trenches. First, you'll never find a soldier who likes to dig one. Second, the deeper they are, the safer they are.

 

"Digging a hole is not fun," said Stefan Korshak, an American who knows the Ukrainian military well. He's been living in Ukraine for 25 years and covers the war for the Kyiv Post.

 

"Their army has developed the discipline to make the soldiers dig holes, the moment they stop, wherever they are, anytime they could potentially be hit by Russian artillery. And that saves lives," said Korshak.

 

When Russia invaded Ukraine back in 2014, Ukraine's army was simply outmatched. Since then, Ukraine has had to figure out creative ways to defend itself and fight back, from low-tech to high-tech.

 

You could call them 'war hacks.' And many seem to be working.

 

Retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges has seen Ukraine's military improve first-hand. He became the commander of U.S. Army Europe shortly after that first Russian incursion.

 

As American troops helped train the Ukrainians, he was immediately struck by their tech savvy when the U.S. provided radar equipment that detected incoming Russian artillery fire.

 

Click on the link for the full article