The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, CapsSkins said:

The risk with Howell is the ability to read defenses and shift protections. Not because he can’t do it, but because we haven’t yet seen him do it.

 

But he’s a smart guy (high Wonderlic) with a good work ethic, so I’m not too worried. Especially if the coaches scheme up QB runs for him to use as a crutch while he gets up to speed.

Sam Howell wasn't asked to do complex reads, just simpler ones (from what I've read), and he did those well. But he also did that against a better defense than we have, and one that's arguably the 2nd best in the league. So that also has to count for something.

[Thinking Skins]

I'll just add that I put that part in in there about first year QBs because I was curious about the complexity of the system. The fact that Bradford, Keenum (who I left of but in 2017, he completed 67.6% of his passes for 3,547 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, leading the Vikings to a 13-3 regular-season record and a trip to the NFC Championship Game.), And Cousins all had good years in their first years kinda makes me want him as the OC. 

 

Plus the fact that Scott worked under him means there may be some similarity there but even if not, hrs more creative and has a better resume. 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Like I was saying earlier about Trevor Lawrence, if we had drafted him 1st overall and he put up that first year he did, how people here would be going absolutely ape**** about him, calling him a bust, etc.  

 

Can you imagine this place if Trevor Lawrence was our QB and threw 4 picks in the first half of a playoff game?  Yowza.

[SoCalSkins]

56 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Man, Heinicke looks like Tom Brady compared to Lawrence tonight. 4 picks and it’s still early. Pederson may want to start running the ball.

That Asante Samuel jr looking ridiculous. How is it that Asante Samuel has a kid playing and Reggie Bush has a kid playing in the NFL? I’m apparently getting old. 

[CapsSkins]

47 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

That Asante Samuel jr looking ridiculous. How is it that Asante Samuel has a kid playing and Reggie Bush has a kid playing in the NFL? I’m apparently getting old. 

Reggie Bush is 37. I would be frankly pretty impressed if he managed to have a kid playing in the NFL at this point.

[method man]

Interesting Sam Howell factoid is he was hitting 90-93 mph in high school on Dre Bly’s travel baseball team. Sam has an elite arm

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

Like I was saying earlier about Trevor Lawrence, if we had drafted him 1st overall and he put up that first year he did, how people here would be going absolutely ape**** about him, calling him a bust, etc.  

 

Can you imagine this place if Trevor Lawrence was our QB and threw 4 picks in the first half of a playoff game?  Yowza.

 

He looked so bad, late on reads, missing open guys, everything. And then the rest of the game happened.

 

I swear something is off with Justin Herbert. Someone that talented shouldn't come up short so often.

[Mooka]

This dude does a good breakdown of Howell's plays against Dallas:

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ball Security]

1 hour ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

He looked so bad, late on reads, missing open guys, everything. And then the rest of the game happened.

 

I swear something is off with Justin Herbert. Someone that talented shouldn't come up short so often.

Herbert just tied Heinicke’s playoff record at 0-1.

[Jumbo]

1 hour ago, Ball Security said:

Herbert just tied Heinicke’s playoff record at 0-1.

 

 

I am seriously considering finding your location and sealing you in a barrel of diarrhea. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jericho]

7 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Thinking about it what gives me jazzed about it is that it means they are sold on him.  They could end up wrong.  But I get the sense they think they think their roster is close so for them to bet on a young QB means they like that they are seeing in practice.  And people around the team have said that is indeed the case. 

 

I noticed some (not all) of the local and national media see them not starting Howell earlier as a red flag or that they are vacilliating.  Personally I don't see it that way.  They were in a playoff hunt, it would be weird to all of a sudden start a rookie in the midst of it.   It just so happened that they were eliminated in the next to last game.  Forgot which reporter said it but one said they'd have started Howell earlier if they were eliminated earlier.

 

I'd disagree. This is pretty much the team's only play. We know Wentz is getting cut. If Heinicke ends up back (which I suspect he will not), we know he's not the plan as a starter. So who is the team going to say is the starter to potential offensive coordinators? The only options are Howell or nobody. But choosing nobody is really throwing Howell under the bus. Why do that? Not to mention telegraphing all the offseason plans. The smart play, even if you don't want Howell as the starter, is to claim he will be the starter until someone else is acquired. The team legally cannot reference other team's players right now and certainly doesn't want to give up any draft plans. Practically, the trade market and free agent market are notoriously bad and look poor this offseason. And the team is not in a great position draft wise. So I think it turns to Howell in the end anyway. As that is a very likely outcome, the team should at least publicly back him now, no matter how confident the powers that be are in Howell.

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, Jericho said:

 

I'd disagree. This is pretty much the team's only play. We know Wentz is getting cut. If Heinicke ends up back (which I suspect he will not), we know he's not the plan as a starter. So who is the team going to say is the starter to potential offensive coordinators? The only options are Howell or nobody. But choosing nobody is really throwing Howell under the bus. Why do that? Not to mention telegraphing all the offseason plans. The smart play, even if you don't want Howell as the starter, is to claim he will be the starter until someone else is acquired. The team legally cannot reference other team's players right now and certainly doesn't want to give up any draft plans. Practically, the trade market and free agent market are notoriously bad and look poor this offseason. And the team is not in a great position draft wise. So I think it turns to Howell in the end anyway. As that is a very likely outcome, the team should at least publicly back him now, no matter how confident the powers that be are in Howell.

 

OK, so your disagreemenrt with my point means to you this does not indicate that they are genuinely jazzed about Howell.

 

Then the heart of our disagreement is what makes Rivera tick?    For me I don't think there is any chance if Rivera thinks --  Howell?  He has no positive feel for how it will go?  But what the hell lets suck it up and see what happens?  For a dude who rhetoric wise and from what beat guys say is obsessed with QB1 and he believes that's the #1 thing that felled his tenure -- in turn, I seriously doubt he's not enthusiastic about riding with Howell, if that is what they indeed do.    And in turn pass on Carr, Jimmy G or whomever. 

 

Could Grant's sources be deceiving him because no way would they leak their overall intentions at that spot?  Grant doesn't report much but when he does he tends to be on the money.  So I am banking on it likely being correct.   But I'll give you that for me to 100% buy in that it's likely I need to hear it from Keim.    And I do think like anything in life if some unexpected happy circumstance develops to make a move, they'd consider, things change. 

 

But yeah I do think they are genuinely jazzed about Howell not just based on yesterday's reports but also insiders I trust who talked about it including Logan Paulsen.  I don't think thats off base.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[tshile]

If Paulson is right (and I don’t have any real respect for him so I’m not sure he’s right) that’s great news to me

 

the worst thing I think this team can do is go all in on another QB. The track record is not very good. Invest in o line and depth - cause we’re gonna lose people during free agency over the next few years. 
 

build a team. A real team. We’ll find the QB along the way without mortgaging the future for one guy the talking heads are going nuts about (who are often wrong and never once held accountable for being wrong)

[Skinsinparadise]

@Thinking Skins

 

OK so you are responding back on the Heinicke part.  It's not that Heinicke can't adapt to Shurmur's system.    My point is why bother if you are this team?    And why woud we want Shurmur to adapt to Heinicke?  Heinicke simply loses a lot of his value IMO if they shift off of Turner's system even if its not a full shift away.

 

Shumur is from the WCO tree not the Air Coryell one.  Yes there are different variations of the WCOs offense and Shurmur has branched some in his offenses as I mentioned including running Chip Kelly's system which was heavy RPO.  As for your point that he has a reputation of being flexible and adaptable and can do so here, yeah agree, that was in some of the articles I posted.  Here are some more.  But at a minimum I doubt Shurmur will run Scott's system.  I can see him keeping elements of it though for sure.

 

https://www.giants.com/news/quarterback-impact-the-top-qb-seasons-under-pat-shurmur-20282259

 

When you take a look at Pat Shurmur's offense in Minnesota this past season, you see a few staples. There are west coast principles, but there were also some remnants of what Norv Turner employed in his scheme in 2016.

The result is a varied offense that had success despite an early season change at quarterback.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/broncos/news/the-one-missing-element-pat-shurmur-will-bring-to-the-denver-broncos-offense

target former Giants head coach Pat Shurmur. One thing about Shurmur that really stands out are the quarterbacks he has worked with and the progression those signal-callers showed under his hand. 

While he isn’t young, the 54-year-old Shurmur can be innovative 

[Skinsinparadise]

25 minutes ago, tshile said:

If Paulson is right (and I don’t have any real respect for him so I’m not sure he’s right) that’s great news to me

 

the worst thing I think this team can do is go all in on another QB. The track record is not very good. Invest in o line and depth - cause we’re gonna lose people during free agency over the next few years. 
 

build a team. A real team. We’ll find the QB along the way without mortgaging the future for one guy the talking heads are going nuts about (who are often wrong and never once held accountable for being wrong)

 

Paulsen isn't the only one reporting this.  But yeah as to Paulsen he was the one that had the Scot McCoughan story and he had another one that's escaping me.  He doesn't report much but I can't recall ones that were wrong he was involved in reporting.  Sheehan is somewhat the same way, rarely reports but when he does he's just about always right.

 

Keim though to me is the Holy Grail on that front, he reports plenty and I'd say give and take he's 95% or so right.

 

But yeah I trust someone like Logan Paulsen who is in the buildiing when he says people he talks to there are high on Howell.

 

IMO even if I didn't hear this stuff, its intuitive they took Howell in the draft they clearly like him.  It's really his best shot to come out of the QB search on top IMO. I find it amusing that some of Rivera's critics on twitter sort of use Howell as a weapon against him which I find beyond bizzare as if Rivera deserves no credit for drafting him because he traded for Wentz and if Howell has success its damning to Rivera.

 

Feels in an odd way similar to the RG3-Kirk dynamic.  Shanny doubled down on the spot.  Kirk's success wasn't damning of the RG3 pick as some made out to be.  It was an act of doubling down on a position.  Like Seattle with Matt Flynn and Russell Wilson.  Eagles drafting Hurts when they had Wentz.  Dallas doubiling down on QBs with Walsh and Aikman.   It's not easy to hit on QB, so try multiple things.  And if you try multiple things during the same off season, its not damning IMO, but its a good approach. 

 

I love that approach, keep shooting darts, one dart missing takes nothing away from the dart that hits.  Not saying Howell will be a hit, will see.  Just felt like going on a tangent on Howell which is in some ways the move reminds me a lot of 2012, in some ways not.

Edited January 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[-9-]

11 hours ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

Can you imagine this place if Trevor Lawrence was our QB and threw 4 picks in the first half of a playoff game?  Yowza.

 

 

The Jacksonville fanbase was assuredly calm, cool and collected.

 

As would every other NFL fanbase be ... except Washington.

Edited January 15, 2023 by -9-

[CapsSkins]

If Taylor Heinicke threw 4 picks in the first half of a playoff game and then came back to win 31-30 this place would erupt in a Civil War. Lol

[Thinking Skins]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

@Thinking Skins

 

OK so you are responding back on the Heinicke part.  It's not that Heinicke can't adapt to Shurmur's system.    My point is why bother if you are this team?    And why woud we want Shurmur to adapt to Heinicke?  Heinicke simply loses a lot of his value IMO if they shift off of Turner's system even if its not a full shift away.

 

Shumur is from the WCO tree not the Air Coryell one.  Yes there are different variations of the WCOs offense and Shurmur has branched some in his offenses as I mentioned including running Chip Kelly's system which was heavy RPO.  As for your point that he has a reputation of being flexible and adaptable and can do so here, yeah agree, that was in some of the articles I posted.  Here are some more.  But at a minimum I doubt Shurmur will run Scott's system.  I can see him keeping elements of it though for sure.

 

https://www.giants.com/news/quarterback-impact-the-top-qb-seasons-under-pat-shurmur-20282259

 

When you take a look at Pat Shurmur's offense in Minnesota this past season, you see a few staples. There are west coast principles, but there were also some remnants of what Norv Turner employed in his scheme in 2016.

The result is a varied offense that had success despite an early season change at quarterback.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/broncos/news/the-one-missing-element-pat-shurmur-will-bring-to-the-denver-broncos-offense

target former Giants head coach Pat Shurmur. One thing about Shurmur that really stands out are the quarterbacks he has worked with and the progression those signal-callers showed under his hand. 

While he isn’t young, the 54-year-old Shurmur can be innovative 

Did you find anything in the terminology? That's what I was looking for, or even quotes like the one from Fitzpatrick what he criticizes Scott's system. I couldn't find anything quote wise on him other than from Zimmer praising him for flexibility. 

[CapsSkins]

I’ve said this before but once again — I don’t care how exotic the terminology, if you have a smart guy like Howell and you scheme up QB run packages as a safety net, you should still be able to win games in Year 1 as the QB (and rest of the offense) learn the playbook.

[FootballZombie]

5 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

I’ve said this before but once again — I don’t care how exotic the terminology, if you have a smart guy like Howell and you scheme up QB run packages as a safety net, you should still be able to win games in Year 1 as the QB (and rest of the offense) learn the playbook.

 

There are limits

 

Al Sanders reaction to this challenge:

[Warhead36]

Only bad offenses are overly complicated. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

Did you find anything in the terminology? That's what I was looking for, or even quotes like the one from Fitzpatrick what he criticizes Scott's system. I couldn't find anything quote wise on him other than from Zimmer praising him for flexibility. 

 

In an interview, I listen to, don't recall if 980 or 106.7, Fitzpatrick mentioned he hadn't played in a system like this since really early in his career.  He didn't say it as a criticism.  As for him criticizing Scott's system that was on a pregame show, I think a blog or two transcribed it.

 

I have heard multiple times the Air Coryell system is based on a number system, where the terminology is different than lets say a WCO offense.  But I am not an expert on it so maybe I am missing something on the point.  I doubt if its let Shurmur taking over, he'd abandon everything and start from scratch.  But at the same time, I doubt he's run Scott's system in pure form. 

 

My original point though that you seem to be pushing back on unless I misconstrue is Heincke's value as a backup diminshes if they change from Scott's system.  

Edited January 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[skinsfan66]

11 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

He looked so bad, late on reads, missing open guys, everything. And then the rest of the game happened.

 

I swear something is off with Justin Herbert. Someone that talented shouldn't come up short so often.

They blitzed Justin from everywhere all game and when one of your 2 star WR's is out and they double the other it's tough. He has had that problem all year Allen missed 8 games and Williams in and out all year. Plus your D sucks and got lucky in the first half. Not to mention Bosa having 3 big penalties during a mental breakdown that cost the game. Blame Bosa and the D. And being out coached the 2nd. half.  27 point lead ,kicker also missed easy FG.  But let's blame the QB. 

[SoCalSkins]

11 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

Reggie Bush is 37. I would be frankly pretty impressed if he managed to have a kid playing in the NFL at this point.

I meant Devin Bush. 😂 When Reggie’s kid plays then I am officially old!

[Thinking Skins]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

In an interview, I listen to, don't recall if 980 or 106.7, Fitzpatrick mentioned he hadn't played in a system like this since really early in his career.  He didn't say it as a criticism.  As for him criticizing Scott's system that was on a pregame show, I think a blog or two transcribed it.

 

I have heard multiple times the Air Coryell system is based on a number system, where ther terminology is different than lets say a WCO offense.  But I am not expert on it.

 

My original point though that you seem to be pushing back on unless I misconstrue is Heincke's value as a backup diminshes if they change from Scott's system.  

No my interest was trying to understand Pat's system more. It's less about Heinicke who I think is gone now. I'm thinking about how will Howell work in this system, especially in his first year. 

 

So I was wondering if I could find a write-up of the system, similarities between our and a Norv system vs an Andy system (or WCO) and just something quantitative about how QBs do in this system. 

 

I think what I found says that it does have more similarities to a WCO but they didn't call it one because of the TEs and the deep shots and Pat's creativity and the fact that it changed slightly in each place. WCOs very so much though that I don't think this is enough to say it's not a WCO though. 

 

I like WCO because I think they make arm strength less of a liability (traditional WCO) and they seem to be easier to learn based on their presence in the league. But many WCOs replace the running game with short passes and I don't think Ron would go for that, or maybe he would. 

 

But for Howell, I'm wondering how hard it will be to go from numbers to letters or whatever it will be.