The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

If its Zampese, I'd guess good shot Heinicke is back, since they'd play in that same system I'd presume.

 

If its Shurmur, I'd guess Heinicke is a goner.    Shurmur is a WCO guy not Air Coryell. 

 

Shurmur worked for Chip Kelly who went heavy RPO, Howell ran a good chunk of RPOs in North Carolina.  RPO's also arguably not something that's Heinicke's thing.

Edited January 14, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

We don't need a full offensive line. That's ridiculous. We need two or three guys. Less if we figure out why they keep getting hurt. 

 

Again, a .500 team is a team that wins. We're just outside of the playoffs with some of the leagues worst QB play. That bad QB play also affects the Oline play.

A .500 team can be a year away from 5-12 or a year away from 10-7, you just don't know, and when you have problems like we have, that afflict positions groups that demonstrably define a team (QB and OL play for example) you can see your team implode very easily. 

 

The best one can say about this team is that it has, for now, legit pieces in place and some strong position groups which means that health, and/or good signings and a good draft class can mean we reach closer to our ceiling, but the most reasonable expectation, and what I'd expect Vegas to do, is put us at 8 or 8.5 next year (and lower if we don't add some sort of high floor option at QB if Howell goes sideways or worse). 

 

We're fans, and some of us have rose colored glasses (seems like yourself) and some of us like me, are cynics, always expecting the worst. The past two seasons the Redskins nearly perfectly nailed my win expectation (I had 7.5 this year as the likely wise area which is why I didn't bet our O/U, and I believe I had 6.5-7.5 in '21). We'll see if '23 is one of those upside years weve seen the last 3 decades ('99, '05, '07, '12, '15, '20), time will tell, but I 100% think it can go either way. More than likely health will define '23. If we're healthy, we'll hit the high side of win totals (9-10), and if we're not, we'll probably hit the low (5.5-7.5), and if QB play is rock bottom again, I'd expect the floor to give way but I actually think Howell is at worst, competent, so I suspect, if healthy, we bag 7.5-10 wins, 10 being the ceiling, 9 being my expectation if things are reasonable (in terms of health and quarterbacking).  

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

I like Shurmur a lot. I think he calls a nice game. Head coach experience. Well respected. I think he’d be a good fit. 
 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

A .500 team can be a year away from 5-12 or a year away from 10-7, you just don't know, and when you have problems like we have, that afflict positions groups that demonstrably define a team (QB and OL play for example) you can see your team implode very easily. 

 

The best one can say about this team is that it has, for now, legit pieces in place and some strong position groups which means that health, and/or good signings and a good draft class can mean we reach closer to our ceiling, but the most reasonable expectation, and what I'd expect Vegas to do, is put us at 8 or 8.5 next year (and lower if we don't add some sort of high floor option at QB if Howell goes sideways or worse). 

 

We're fans, and some of us have rose colored glasses (seems like yourself) and some of us like me, are cynics, always expecting the worst. The past two seasons the Redskins nearly perfectly nailed my win expectation (I had 7.5 this year as the likely wise area which is why I didn't bet our O/U, and I believe I had 6.5-7.5 in '21). We'll see if '23 is one of those upside years weve seen the last 3 decades ('99, '05, '07, '12, '15, '20), time will tell, but I 100% think it can go either way. More than likely health will define '23. If we're healthy, we'll hit the high side of win totals (9-10), and if we're not, we'll probably hit the low (5.5-7.5), and if QB play is rock bottom again, I'd expect the floor to give way but I actually think Howell is at worst, competent, so I suspect, if healthy, we bag 7.5-10 wins, 10 being the ceiling, 9 being my expectation if things are reasonable (in terms of health and quarterbacking).  

 

That's basically predicting a repeat of this season.  So Howell = Heinicke.  And the rest of the team doesnt really improve, it treads water, so basically they fail to upgrade on the O line and QB. 

Edited January 14, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

4 hours ago, Zim489 said:

It really is the best case scenario. 

 

Just punt on the season and make no moves that makes it harder for the next group to succeed. 

I don’t wanna burst your bubble, but starting Howell isn’t “punting” on next season.

 

If he plays well, and we make the playoffs…it’s a good chance your boy Ron will be around for another season. 

 

Get ready for disappointment. 😆

[Mr. Sinister]

Vader voice:

 

IT'S. HOWELL. TIME.

[Skinsinparadise]

One way ticket to Thailand of all places, interesting, willd times ahead for the dude...

 

 

 

Edited January 14, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[CapsSkins]

Thailand of all places does not conjure charitable images. Hope he just wants sunshine.

[CobraCommander]

9 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

One way ticket to Thailand of all places, interesting, willd times ahead for the dude...

 

 

 

 

with his wife?

 

The wife and I went as part of our honeymoon, most of the time was spent in Vietnam.  Saw quite a few men with ladyboys in Bangkok.

Edited January 14, 2023 by CobraCommander

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, CobraCommander said:

 

with his wife?

 

I went as part of our honeymoon, most of the time spent in Vietnam.  Saw quite a few men with ladyboys in Bangkok.

 

No wife.  But he does apparently have a girlfriend. 

[CobraCommander]

9 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

No wife.  But he does apparently have a girlfriend. 

Well, it’s a beautiful country nonetheless. I hope he has fun. But if his heart’s not in football I don’t want him. 

Edited January 14, 2023 by CobraCommander

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Leno is...fine. He's not a stud franchise LT type but you can win games with him. Just give him some help against the elite Edge guys. He ain't blockin them 1 on 1 like a Trent Williams type(thanks again Bruce).

Yep, reminds me of some vet stop gap LT's we got after Gibbs retired for the first time, some of them were solid, some, not so much, but until we got Samuels, we got by w/a few that were average after Lachey was donezo. 

 

I think Robinson is fine (responding to a different post), but I think the idea that he's an elite RB or has that potential is 100% misplaced. He's a physical chain moving, solid back, he's not an elite back, there's nothing explosive about him in my view, or particularly game changingly athletic. Gibson is more the guy w/those tools and I know with the injuries, inexperience and fumbling he's a non-starter for you, but of the two, he's definitely the more difference making option, while Robinson is the more grounded consistent guy. His speed is reasonable and really good size adjusted (85th percentile when adjusted for size) but in terms of agility and explosion he's rock bottom (7th and 15th percentile respectively). I was fine w/selecting him because I think you can plug him in if you're not going with Gibson and get adequate production, but there are at least 20-25 RB's I'd take over him in terms of talent, if you plug age into it (and age really really matters to me) than there's about 17 or 18 guys I'd choose over him. He's fine to me, but not special, at all. Fine till we find a legit difference maker. 

 

I thought Dotson was overdrafted but still a very good prospect (I had him more in the 25-45 zone of prospects), and expected that if he panned out, he'd evolve into a top 20-30 type WR. The Tyler Lockett comp is particularly intriguing. He took a while to stay healthy but once he did he evolved into a top 12-18 caliber WR in the league in the second half of his 20's. If Dotson can evolve even close to that, we're doing really great getting these two guys with a 1st and 3rd respectively. Regardless, he's a hit, which is HUGE. 4 more years at below market cost will give us a near decade of cheap WR play for a progressively more expensive position. 

 

My top WR's last year were London, Williams, Wilson, Pickens and Olave if memory serves. Looks like all of them save Williams hit big time, although Williams is a question mark due to the injury that kept him out for most of the season. I had Doston, trying to remember, I think 7th, right now Dynasty folks still have him 7th but I suspect he'll climb higher in the offseason (probably 5th or 6th). Burks remains a weird question mark. But we hit on our guy, it's not a Williams (who I expect to become special) or Burks nebulous situation, it's not the weird usage inconsistency with London for a pick so high, nope, he showed exactly what he can be. It's up to us to get the QB's to turn him into the second half of his twenties Tyler Lockett Seattle has had, but we can do that, w/some luck. Not bad, still a reach to me, I'd still have Pickens ahead of him for instance, but among WR's taken after him, beyond Pickens I'd have to really think if there were anymore I'd prefer (and prefered at the time), burks was always a wishy washy selection due to the athleticism concerns (thought I think he's shown enough to suggest he'll be a good one too). Got a feeling it's gonna be a legit very strong class, better than the more balleyooed '20 crop possibly. 

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Agree but I am coming at it from a different angle. I think Howell legit could end up the guy. It doesn’t bug me that he was taken in the 5th round at all. Let’s see it play out. I wasn’t optimistic about Haskins (RIP) when we took him even though he was a first rounder. Howell I think has a legit shot 

True I won’t be optimistic officially until Dan is a goner 

That is kind of funny, I feel sort of the same way, which is odd because draft capital is so important w/this sort of thing, but if Howell is able to get the offseason reps, then the draft capital angle drops off in relevance a great deal because I tend to think the draft capital piece of prospects making it or not is more about the opportunity that it comes with then the particular meaningfulness of where they were taken in many instances. The fact that Howell can get reps as the starter for hopefully the whole summer will give him a much better chance of hitting. 

 

We do get these hints, over and over of what matters, I imagine teams are digging more and more and more into player backgrounds to dig up these details because it seems patently obvious that after physically being able to play the position, the new most important thing is the mental make up/dedication/smarts/vision/spatial awareness/decision making, just brain bit. It seems so huge, the mentality piece and what the player has inside his head. Some guys have that in spades, some simply don't. Seems clear Haskins didn't (RIP), and it was probably something that could be figured out at the time. Same deal with Ryan Leaf, probably with jeff George, maybe Jay Schreoder over here etc. Hearing the stories about Purdy everyone seems to think that Purdy was always mentally, the part, and if that's so, and if he has the physical tools, and if he's got the smarts/vision/decision making etc, why on earth was he rated so low? I get why people with ridiculous physical tools get rated high, even Josh Allen, which struck me as nuts at the time due to lack of accuracy, his physical tools were so ridiculous, if the head piece was there and the accuracy problem could be solved, he could be great, i just viewed that as aunts and balls sort of "if" and ridiculous. I would love to know where Sam Howell fits in terms of decision making, mental makeup etc. We know he has the arm, maybe not ideal height but just big enough. Does he have the decision making and the mental make up? That's probably the crux here. 

[ntotoro]

1 hour ago, CapsSkins said:

Thailand of all places does not conjure charitable images. Hope he just wants sunshine.

 

Just hope you don’t need to send in John Rambo at some point to get him.

[kingdaddy]

On 1/13/2023 at 12:25 PM, The Consigliere said:

I don't think the SF model is really workable. It's not a coincidence to me that the Ravens and the Niners are the only teams with sustained success w/o that franchise QB the last 2+ decades. They are model franchises with stability, elite coaches during those runs, and historically strong defense. We don't have a great FO or a great HC, you have to have everything, stability in owner, stability in FO, stability at coach (w/elite talent there) and then the elite talent actually on the field everywhere but QB.

 

That sounds MUCH harder to build than trying to get a top 5-10 QB. I know top 5-10 QB's don't grow on trees but lets be straight here, since we flushed Cousins, guaranteeing years of horrible QB play there have actually been tons of elite QB's available in the draft and we've either passed on them, or refused to trade up for them, or been unable to acquire them:

Josh Allen

Lamar Jackson

Kyler Murray

Joe Burrow

Justin Herbert

Trevor Lawrence

Maybe Justin Fields

Maybe Lance if he ever gets on the field

 

Murray, and Burrow and Lawrence were likely unavailable (though I'd have given godfather offers for the latter two) but the other guys, Allen, Jackson, Herbert, Fields all were and we passed on making serious efforts for any of them. 

 

To me, that's the problem. They do come, on average about 1.5-2 per year. You can get them, you just have to be aggressive, pay the price, and if you fail, try again. Am I forgetting anyone? 

Jaylen Hurts?

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, CapsSkins said:

Thailand of all places does not conjure charitable images. Hope he just wants sunshine.

Some of the best food in the world, and its gorgeous there according to my former students anyway (I've had a few Thai kids). Thailand is freaking amazing from everyone I've known who visited and from immigrants I've taught, and I love the culture/food. 

[kingdaddy]

So, per Adam Wells of Bleacher Report the Commanders have told OC candidates that they are rolling with Howell moving forward with hopes of signing TH to back him up? Sorry if this was already posted but I thought this was big news. 

[kingdaddy]

Report: Commanders Inform OC Candidates Sam Howell Will Likely Be Starting QB in 2023

 

Just now, kingdaddy said:

Report: Commanders Inform OC Candidates Sam Howell Will Likely Be Starting QB in 2023

 

Per CBS Sports' Jonathan Jones, the Commanders are telling potential offensive-coordinator candidates they will likely roll with Howell as their No. 1 signal-caller.

[Skinsinparadise]

Grant is plugged in so I’d trust it 

 

[HigSkin]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Don’t know how valid this is but caught Paulsen in Keim’s podcast who also thinks they run with Howell 

 

 

I am cool with that just give him a veteran backup 

 

Yea, that's what I surmised from Paulsen in his Grant and Danny interview. 

 

If you read that Jonathan Jones article it says in hopes as resigning Heinicke as the backup.  

 

 

Edited January 14, 2023 by HigSkin

[kingdaddy]

Howell, Robinson, Dotson.....all from the same draft, all huge pieces for next season and beyond.

[RWJ]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Grant is plugged in so I’d trust it 

 

The way it should be. 

[kingdaddy]

1 minute ago, RWJ said:

The way it should be. 

This means we need to get an OC in here very soon so Howell and everyone else can learn the offense....makes you wonder if they will bring in someone who runs a similar offense so the team doesn't have to start from scratch so to speak. 

[RWJ]

2 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

This means we need to get an OC in here very soon so Howell and everyone else can learn the offense....makes you wonder if they will bring in someone who runs a similar offense so the team doesn't have to start from scratch so to speak. 

I'm not a Shurmur fan.  I'd rather have Zampese as our OC instead of Shurmur.