The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

Ehhh, pretty strong reports that the prior Wizard GM relied on draft aggregator data to make decisions. I definitely think teams use phone calls and mocks as aggregation tools for projecting in general what boards look like (because most of the boards are based on word of mouth, rather than on guys actually evaluating these players to the finest detail). 

The Wizards front office was a bunch of clowns for decades.

 

Let me lay out (for the last time) why mock drafts are useless except for entertainment.

 

1. There are essentially 6 components to a draft grade.  

  a. Film study

  b. Metrics and Measurables

  c. Interviews

  d. Medicals

  e. Workouts/Senior Bowl Practices/Pro Days

 

 

2. A media member can get study film, but nowhere near as much on all the prospects as a fully staffed scouting department.  So the film grade is incomplete.

 

3. Metrics and Measurables are readily available from the combine.  Everybody has those, teams and media.  Checkmark there.

 

4. No media members are privy to any of the interview information, and this has proven to be a pretty big component of the grade, especially for early picks.  

 

5. No media member has access to private and confidential medical information.

 

6. The media can attend some pro days and the senior bowl.  But this part of the eval is also incomplete.

 

7. One of the things good organizations do is look for scheme fit.  Which is absolutely impossible for any member of the media to do unless they know exactly what scheme each team is running and how they think they can use each prospect.  That's a mountain of detail which I'm not sure any of the analysts, except maybe Kiper in his prime, even attempt.

 

So, basically a media member draftnik can watch film and get combine stats.  Which are important, but nowhere near the complete picture.  So draft grades and ergo mock drafts are based on incomplete (at best) analysis.

 

Then, when things don't fall the way they have predicted, they give draft grades based on incomplete information.  Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're not.  But that's more based on luck than it is any degree of skill.

 

None of this is to say, you can't watch film and say, "I like how this player does X,Y and Z" or "I am not comfortable with this other player because they can't do A, B or C consistently and that concerns me."  Or "that guy didn't show the burst/quickness in drill X."  All of that is fine.

 

But mock drafts and "big boards" are good to get an idea of what tier a guy MIGHT be in based on some analysis by some media people who have questionable backgrounds evaluating film, but that's about where it ends.  

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

You can see a clear shift already starting to appear with Daniels jumping Maye in certain circles. 

 

I think its been a variable for weeks whether from mock drafters or leaks from scouts.

 

Some like Maye, some like Daniels more.  Heck Kiper had Maye going to Washington and weeks later its Daniels.  

 

Both are liked by most. I was just listening to Brugler.  I know some like Brugler here.  He has Maye ranked higher, thinks the Herbert comps are apt.  He said he's the QB among the top 3 he trusts the most from the pocket.  He also liked Daniels but has some concerns which he expressed, almost identical to what some of us said here including his durability. 

 

He said as a Commanders fan he'd be very excited grabbing a QB in the 2nd.

 

But to your point, I think it will be likely divided about those two QBs depending on what style of QB people like.  Plus we got three months or so of draft talk.  It would be boring if everyone agrees on these guys.

 

 

Edited January 23 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

 

I’m not invested enough to post propaganda for any specific prospect. 

 

Most of it is just regurgitated points that we all have made said by others.  So whether its Brugler, Kiper or DJ or Breer mentioning what he hears from scouts its mostly the same stuff.

 

Sometimes you get some big time outlier point of view but by and large its the same stuff just said by different people.

 

If people want to sell positive things what people think of Daniels.  It's easy.  

 

If people want to sell positive things about what people think of Maye.  It's easy.

 

You want to find a disclaimer on Maye.  Easy.  a disclaimer on Daniels.  Easy, too.

 

By the time we get through this draft process we are going to be sick and tired of talking about those two.  I am borderline burnt out by it already.  

Edited January 23 by Skinsinparadise

[ThatNFLChick]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Most of it is just regurgitated point that we all have made.  So whether its Brugler, Kiper or DJ or Breer mentioning what he hears from scouts its mostly the same stuff.

 

Sometimes you get some big time outlier point of view but by and large its the same stuff just said by different people.

 

If people want to sell positive things what people think of Daniels.  It's easy.  

 

If people want to sell positive things about what people think of Maye.  It's easy.

 

You want to find a disclaimer on Maye.  Easy.  a disclaimer on Daniels.  Easy, too.

 

By the time we get through this draft process we are going to be sick and tired of talking about those two.  I am borderline burned out by it already.  

 

Lol, just wait until the combine, interviews and pro days and alllllll the reports out of them. Gonna be nuts around here. 

Edited January 23 by ThatNFLChick

[The Consigliere]

5 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

The Wizards front office was a bunch of clowns for decades.

 

Let me lay out (for the last time) why mock drafts are useless except for entertainment.

 

1. There are essentially 6 components to a draft grade.  

  a. Film study

  b. Metrics and Measurables

  c. Interviews

  d. Medicals

  e. Workouts/Senior Bowl Practices/Pro Days

 

 

2. A media member can get study film, but nowhere near as much on all the prospects as a fully staffed scouting department.  So the film grade is incomplete.

 

3. Metrics and Measurables are readily available from the combine.  Everybody has those, teams and media.  Checkmark there.

 

4. No media members are privy to any of the interview information, and this has proven to be a pretty big component of the grade, especially for early picks.  

 

5. No media member has access to private and confidential medical information.

 

6. The media can attend some pro days and the senior bowl.  But this part of the eval is also incomplete.

 

7. One of the things good organizations do is look for scheme fit.  Which is absolutely impossible for any member of the media to do unless they know exactly what scheme each team is running and how they think they can use each prospect.  That's a mountain of detail which I'm not sure any of the analysts, except maybe Kiper in his prime, even attempt.

 

So, basically a media member draftnik can watch film and get combine stats.  Which are important, but nowhere near the complete picture.  So draft grades and ergo mock drafts are based on incomplete (at best) analysis.

 

Then, when things don't fall the way they have predicted, they give draft grades based on incomplete information.  Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're not.  But that's more based on luck than it is any degree of skill.

 

None of this is to say, you can't watch film and say, "I like how this player does X,Y and Z" or "I am not comfortable with this other player because they can't do A, B or C consistently and that concerns me."  Or "that guy didn't show the burst/quickness in drill X."  All of that is fine.

 

But mock drafts and "big boards" are good to get an idea of what tier a guy MIGHT be in based on some analysis by some media people who have questionable backgrounds evaluating film, but that's about where it ends.  

 

 

See, I think we disagree on what people are using to make their mock drafts. I think the vast majority of mock drafts are basically aggregators of reporters reporting, I dont think they're doing any of the things you mention w/a handful of exceptions. Mel Kiper for instance? I would bet heavily that his board is far more heavily impacted from talking to contacts than to any film study and certainly analytics. There are guys who are outliers who do their own thing and generally speaking, we know who they are. I think guys like Brugler, do their own thing, I think a guy like McShay is inbetween a Brugler, and a Kiper as another example, but I would bet that about 80% to 90% of mock drafts out there are mostly or entirely based either on:

Reporting from contacts with teams.

or

Reporting from contacts with teams, and a small proportion of individual research.

or

aggregating other mocks, and building their own from said aggregating.

 

How many mocks are based on your list? I'd put that at 5-10%. I don't think for a second joe random mock draft producer at the Miilwaukee Son or Herald or whatever who nailed 19 of 32 picks in 2014 (making up all this, it's just a "type") is grinding tape for five months, and doing regression analysis with rotoviz before throwing up their mock. I think they're making phone calls, and emailing, and texting, and that's 99% of how they get their information. 

 

I dont think there's a chance in hell that more than 5-15% of mocks are produced from serious tape grinding, and analytics research.

 

But I do believe, regardless of that, teams use aggregation to help build out a general idea of where players are projected to go for trade up and down information (along with contacts w/other teams). 

[NoCalMike]

Despite the flaws I feel Kirk Cousins has in his game, let's face it, the 49ers went to a Superbowl with Jimmy G, and now back to back NFC Championships (potential for a SB win) with Brock Purdy.  Let's not act like Cousins with that roster couldn't at least do the same thing. 

 

EDIT: I forgot to hit the reply button, this was obviously a reply to some of the Cousins to SF chatter a few pages back.

Edited January 23 by NoCalMike

[oraphus]

1 hour ago, NoCalMike said:

Despite the flaws I feel Kirk Cousins has in his game, let's face it, the 49ers went to a Superbowl with Jimmy G, and now back to back NFC Championships (potential for a SB win) with Brock Purdy.  Let's not act like Cousins with that roster couldn't at least do the same thing. 

 

EDIT: I forgot to hit the reply button, this was obviously a reply to some of the Cousins to SF chatter a few pages back.

yeah .. thats what got Vikings in to trouble... they were 13-3 in 2017 with Sam (freaking) Bradford and Case Keenum

thinking was.." well we have a stacked roster, 'Kurt' will get us over the edge"...  in 2018 they went 8-7-1 with Cousins, 2019 10-6, etc

 

[ThatNFLChick]

Dan Orlovsky's thoughts on Daniels (compared him to CJ Stroud as a thrower) and Maye (compares him to Roethlisberger as a playmaker)

 

 

[RWJ]

42 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

Dan Orlovsky's thoughts on Daniels (compared him to CJ Stroud as a thrower) and Maye (compares him to Roethlisberger as a playmaker)

 

 

I know you like Daniels and I do too but what about his frame and taking shots to the body vs. Maye.  Doesn't that concern you and what are your thoughts.  That's mine and others before me brought this up too before I did.  

[Anselmheifer]

I don’t trust my QB evaluations, but O do generally trust the top 3 to 5 posters in the draft forum and their evaluations and it seems like a great year to choose 2nd overall. 
 

I do think that if Peters thinks Caleb is significantly better, that he may be willing to trade up, for two reasons.  First,  San Francisco wasn’t afraid to trade high end assets to obtain their guys. Second( Peters has already shown an ability to compensate for a lack of high end draft assets with great drafting in the middle and later rounds. 
 

Also, I’d be very against this, but in Kim’s latest video, he does talk about Cousins glowingly and references that he is a free agent. I don’t want Cousins, but not idly do the leaves of Lorien fall. 
 

 

[ThatNFLChick]

29 minutes ago, RWJ said:

I know you like Daniels and I do too but what about his frame and taking shots to the body vs. Maye.  Doesn't that concern you and what are your thoughts.  That's mine and others before me brought this up too before I did.  

 

It's one of his flaws and definitely something he has to clean up for sure. I think he got better about taking hits at the 2nd half of the 2023 season but I want him to go to the Russell Wilson school of learning how to slide. Russell is an elite slider IMO, he always does his best to keep his body out of harm's way, even when scrambling. 

 

As far as his frame is concerned, I think he can easily gain 15 or so pounds and be the same size as say Trevor Lawrence. 

[RWJ]

4 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

It's one of his flaws and definitely something he has to clean up for sure. I think he got better about taking hits at the 2nd half of the 2023 season but I want him to go to the Russell Wilson school of learning how to slide. Russell is an elite slider IMO, he always does his best to keep his body out of harm's way, even when scrambling. 

 

As far as his frame is concerned, I think he can easily gain 15 or so pounds and be the same size as say Trevor Lawrence. 

Forgot about the sliding and your correct he needs to learn to do it. Maye is excellent at sliding when he does it.  If we take Daniels I won't be upset at all but my 1st QB as you know and probably have is Maye, then Daniels.   

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

“Hey everyone, welcome to the show. My mock draft this week is the same as my mock draft from last week” doesn’t get any clicks. 

I’m tuning out until the combine. 😆

[DiscoBob]

5 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

“Hey everyone, welcome to the show. My mock draft this week is the same as my mock draft from last week” doesn’t get any clicks. 

I’m tuning out until the combine. 😆

 

No, wait, come back!!!

 

- Migrating Hairline Mel

[zCommander]

6 hours ago, RWJ said:

I know you like Daniels and I do too but what about his frame and taking shots to the body vs. Maye.  Doesn't that concern you and what are your thoughts.  That's mine and others before me brought this up too before I did.  

 

He is only 5lbs lighter than Joe Burrow. Your concern is no longer a concern.   

[Est.1974]

10 hours ago, KDawg said:

Yeah. I don’t like it. But everyone has an opinion and most of them stink, so…

 

I’m not invested enough to post propaganda for any specific prospect. 

I’m sure there’s a contradiction in there somewhere 😂 

 

I think it’s fairly interesting tbh. The amount of varying takes would automatically imply to me the notion QBs going 1/2/3 is far from a slam dunk. 

10 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

But to your point, I think it will be likely divided about those two QBs depending on what style of QB people like.  Plus we got three months or so of draft talk.  It would be boring if everyone agrees on these guys.

I agree.

The media chatter on Williams has gone quiet for now as they fight over Maye and Daniels. Once Daniels egrets passed Maye, in the media anyway, we will more than likely move onto a Daniels/Williams debate for #1.

 

All that said, we still know nothing on what FOs actually think. Likes everything, it’s all subjective talk. I guess that’s the name of the game right.

[Est.1974]

6 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

As far as his frame is concerned, I think he can easily gain 15 or so pounds and be the same size as say Trevor Lawrence. 

I was going to raise that actually, I’ve seen him listed at 210, which he kinda doesn’t appear to look. However, if he were 220-225 I reckon it would be a very different conversation on him. You have factor that potential to build on his frame in 12/18 months.

[petey hodge]

Number 1 and 2 picks overall with two Quarterbacks …?

 

I’ve seen this movie before.  😭🥺

 

 

 

Edited January 24 by petey hodge

[Califan007 The Constipated]

11 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

The Wizards front office was a bunch of clowns for decades.

 

Let me lay out (for the last time) why mock drafts are useless except for entertainment.

 

1. There are essentially 6 components to a draft grade.  

  a. Film study

  b. Metrics and Measurables

  c. Interviews

  d. Medicals

  e. Workouts/Senior Bowl Practices/Pro Days

 

 

2. A media member can get study film, but nowhere near as much on all the prospects as a fully staffed scouting department.  So the film grade is incomplete.

 

3. Metrics and Measurables are readily available from the combine.  Everybody has those, teams and media.  Checkmark there.

 

4. No media members are privy to any of the interview information, and this has proven to be a pretty big component of the grade, especially for early picks.  

 

5. No media member has access to private and confidential medical information.

 

6. The media can attend some pro days and the senior bowl.  But this part of the eval is also incomplete.

 

7. One of the things good organizations do is look for scheme fit.  Which is absolutely impossible for any member of the media to do unless they know exactly what scheme each team is running and how they think they can use each prospect.  That's a mountain of detail which I'm not sure any of the analysts, except maybe Kiper in his prime, even attempt.

 

So, basically a media member draftnik can watch film and get combine stats.  Which are important, but nowhere near the complete picture.  So draft grades and ergo mock drafts are based on incomplete (at best) analysis.

 

Then, when things don't fall the way they have predicted, they give draft grades based on incomplete information.  Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're not.  But that's more based on luck than it is any degree of skill.

 

None of this is to say, you can't watch film and say, "I like how this player does X,Y and Z" or "I am not comfortable with this other player because they can't do A, B or C consistently and that concerns me."  Or "that guy didn't show the burst/quickness in drill X."  All of that is fine.

 

But mock drafts and "big boards" are good to get an idea of what tier a guy MIGHT be in based on some analysis by some media people who have questionable backgrounds evaluating film, but that's about where it ends.  

 

 

 

 

I've never gotten into mock drafts...but my assumption was that mock drafts by "experts" was primarily what they expect teams to do based on what they've heard and garnered over the months, as much as (if not more than) on things like film study and draft grades. Kind of like, they have their own draft board of who they think are the best players and prospects. and then they have their mock draft based more on which teams are looking at which players and positions, and what needs they have.

 

If so, the stuff you're mentioning doesn't have the importance it normally would when it comes to mocks by them. I would hear these guys talk about a player "shooting up the draft board" not because of their own analysis but because of the stuff they've been hearing around the league about the player. Although it seems like sometimes it's based primarily on combine results...some dude runs a 4.2 40 and the "experts" start predicting he will now go a round or two higher.

[DWinzit]

Petey, if you are referring to the 94 draft, Shuler was the 3rd pick and Dilfer was the 6th pick.

 

Cincy (Wilkinson)and Indy (Faulk) picked ahead of us.

 

It's why Norv was excited to come to Washington...the opportunity to have a fresh start with a new rookie QB. That does sound familiar

[Warhead36]

You can’t let past mistakes determine future decisions.

 

Based on that logic, the Bengals should never have drafted Burrow. The Texans should never have drafted Stroud. The Bills should never have drafted Allen. And so on.

 

You keep trying to land a franchise QB until you get one.

[Conn]

6 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

The media chatter on Williams has gone quiet for now as they fight over Maye and Daniels. Once Daniels egrets passed Maye, in the media anyway, we will more than likely move onto a Daniels/Williams debate for #1.

This is correct, and will peak around the combine. You forgot the last step, which is Maye making a national media reputational resurgence as they hear more reliably what the teams at the top are actually thinking as the hype from the combine fades…and then things settle back into the original status quo. lol

[mistertim]

17 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

You can see a clear shift already starting to appear with Daniels jumping Maye in certain circles. 

 

This seems to basically happen every year with whoever the top dual-threat runner QB is. As the draft got closer last year there was "chatter" about Richardson taking over the #1 or #2 spot from Young and/or Stroud, but I think both of those guys were pretty much locked in by the teams that drafted them.

 

8 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

He is only 5lbs lighter than Joe Burrow. Your concern is no longer a concern.   

 

Joe Burrow weighed in at 221 lbs at the combine. I'd be shocked if Daniels is more than 200 lbs right now. The dude looks like a human swizzle stick. Also, Burrow wasn't running for 1100 yards at LSU and throwing his body around and getting hit like a rag doll. Your comparison is completely invalid and the concern is completely legit.

[Leonard Washington]

17 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

7. One of the things good organizations do is look for scheme fit. 

That should be #1 or merged with the current #1.

Can the guy do what you want him to do? Has he done it regularly? Conversely if we want to change to the QB’s strengths, what are the secondary impacts on the team (new linemen/WR/TE) and can they execute?

[zCommander]

12 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Joe Burrow weighed in at 221 lbs at the combine. I'd be shocked if Daniels is more than 200 lbs right now. The dude looks like a human swizzle stick. Also, Burrow wasn't running for 1100 yards at LSU and throwing his body around and getting hit like a rag doll. Your comparison is completely invalid and the concern is completely legit.

 

Burrow was the most sacked QB his rookie year and survived. Daniels can put on some muscle before the season starts. He is listed at 210lbs right now per ESPN. 

Btw, Tom Brady came in at whopping 211 lbs at the combine.