The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[The Consigliere]

6 minutes ago, MrJL said:

McLaurin is not aging, Dotson had a bad second year but why exactly would he stand out when we consider the entire O to suck

McLaurin will be 29 for the opening kickoff of 2024. How is that not aging?!?! Oh and his target Separation # was 70th among WR's last year. Can't blame that on Howell. I would assume he was dinged and played all year with some kind of nagging injury, because 70th is horrific, otoh, all the reports from you guys watching every game was that none of the WR's were getting any separation. So that's in keeping with what people were seeing. 

 

Dotson, I have no idea what he'll be, good first year, awful second year. We'll see. I'm not 100% out on Dotson, but you can't ignore just how bad '23 was. He was 59th in target seperation in '23. 

Edited January 22 by The Consigliere

[KDawg]

50 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Didn't Elway play without an ACL?

Yes.

 

But Daniels isn’t Elway and needs both of his ACLs!

9 minutes ago, MrJL said:

McLaurin is not aging, Dotson had a bad second year but why exactly would he stand out when we consider the entire O to suck

Every player ages every year. McLaurin is on his second contract. He’s aging. He’s not old… there is a difference there. But he’s no longer young.

[Conn]

16 minutes ago, MrJL said:

McLaurin is not aging, Dotson had a bad second year but why exactly would he stand out when we consider the entire O to suck

McLaurin absolutely is aging, he’s going to be 29. Non-HOF level WR’s tend to fall off around 30. There are always exceptions and McLaurin has been very good in the past (not really this season), but you just never know. He came into the league overaged and his prime is pretty much gone. Could still age gracefully but we have no evidence either way right now, and zooming out it’s not a smart bet to make.

 

That doesn’t mean you have to trade him. There’s a value calculus to do on whether his presence to help out a young QB is worth more than you could receive for him in trade—and there’s a pretty good chance that argument would win, given WR is so damn deep across the league right now (and another good young class is getting drafted into the league in three months), he may not be a hot trade target even if you put him on the block. 

Edited January 22 by Conn

[mistertim]

3 hours ago, klwilkins1977 said:

Who was the owner/GM then? Are we expecting the same outcomes with what looks like a competent team of professionals in charge?

 

Funny, but stupid.

 

What's stupid is idea that somehow finding a top OT is going to do anything for us without a top franchise QB. I never did before (twice, with two upper echelon OTs), and it doesn't for other teams. The Browns had one of the best OTs to ever play the game for 10 years and did nothing. Plenty of other teams have had great OTs but no QB and did nothing.

 

Want to be a perennial contender? Get a top QB. Want to do the same crap and keep ending up either at the bottom or mired in mediocrity? Keep doing what we've been doing.

 

Again, there's a reason that teams keep drafting QBs high. Everyone and their mother within every NFL organization realizes that it's a QB driven league and you need one to be in the mix for a SB every year over a long time. Yes, you can have exceptions like SF, but they are by far the exception and not the rule (though they did luck into what seems like an All Pro level QB in Purdy).

 

But I'm sure all NFL GM, coaches, scouts and others really don't have a clue what they're talking about and you do. You should apply for a job with some NFL team and make bank.

Edited January 22 by mistertim

[CommanderInTheRye]

Recently posted deep dive on Jayden Daniels from our very own Colt MCoy.

 

We get some good, some bad, and as a pleasant surprise, not much ugly...

 

 

 

P.S. I think Colt might make a pretty good QB coach or passing game specialist. He's a good speaker/teacher and has a calm empathetic demeanor.

 

 

 

Edited January 22 by CommanderInTheRye

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Recently posted deep dive on Jayden Daniels from our very own Colt MCoy.

 

We get some good, some bad, and as a pleasant surprise, not much ugly...

 

 

 

P.S. I think Colt might make a pretty good QB coach or passing game specialist. He's a good speaker/teacher and has a calm empathetic demeanor.

 

 

 

Go watch his breakdown of Maye. I posted it in the draft thread a couple of weeks ago. 

[Warhead36]

I think McLaurin will age pretty gracefully. I don't see him just completely falling off. I do think he was hampered by turf toe this year which affected his seperation. I wanna see him with a top notch blue chip QB and coach/playcaller combo before calling him washed. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

10 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I think McLaurin will age pretty gracefully. I don't see him just completely falling off. I do think he was hampered by turf toe this year which affected his seperation. I wanna see him with a top notch blue chip QB and coach/playcaller combo before calling him washed. 

Add the worthless, predictable routes to the mix.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Recently posted deep dive on Jayden Daniels from our very own Colt MCoy.

 

We get some good, some bad, and as a pleasant surprise, not much ugly...

 

 

 

P.S. I think Colt might make a pretty good QB coach or passing game specialist. He's a good speaker/teacher and has a calm empathetic demeanor.

 

 

 

 

I know what @Voice_of_Reason is probably thinking.  Bring Jay back as an offensive coordinator along with his buddy Colt as the QB coach.  Joe Barry maybe as HC?

[ThatNFLChick]

11 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Recently posted deep dive on Jayden Daniels from our very own Colt MCoy.

 

We get some good, some bad, and as a pleasant surprise, not much ugly...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I appreciate Colt's breakdown and agree he definitely needs to protect himself and agree that with all dual threat QBs there's always that challenge of finding a balance between letting them be instinctual and take off for extra yards when they see a lane and also staying a beat longer on reads. Ole Miss was a very good, ranked team so that's good tape to watch against a legit opponent (though I think its weird he only watches one game of these QBs). Daniels starts that game very off and they get down early but love the way they battle back (also that last throw went right through Thomas's hands).

 

 

39 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I think McLaurin will age pretty gracefully. I don't see him just completely falling off. I do think he was hampered by turf toe this year which affected his seperation. I wanna see him with a top notch blue chip QB and coach/playcaller combo before calling him washed. 

 

I think we should keep Terry. He's a good locker room guy, reliable, high character and still a very good #2. He'll be good for a rookie QB, he's just not a #1. We need to go out and get that #1 that can dominate/take over a game like AJ Brown or Ceedee Lamb

[NoCalMike]

The issue with McLaurin going forward (maybe not in 2024, but beyond that) is not whether he can be productive in the offense, but can he continue to be the featured #1 go-to WR and if not what do the numbers in his contract look like and/or if he makes to the end of the current contract how much are you willing to pay to keep him around for a different role versus how much he will be asking for.

Me personally, I want Terry to retired a Commander even if it means a reduced role in another season or two.  It's just that I don't know if the business-side of the sport will find a way to make it work with the direction the franchise is going. 

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, MrJL said:

McLaurin is not aging, Dotson had a bad second year but why exactly would he stand out when we consider the entire O to suck

 

There's a nice little piece apex published this year or last looking at a gazillion player sample size from the current era. It's more recent than the rotoviz studies from '15 and '18. 

 

The data they found is pretty straight forward and beyond compelling.

 

225 PPR: 78.95% are 30 and under: Average age of producer: 27.08

258 PPR: 79.92% are 30 and under: AA of producer: 27.06

285 PPR 81.48% are 30 and under: AA of producer: 26.99

299 PPR 82.88% are 30 and under: AA of producer: 26.88

 

The more elite the WR, the younger they are, and in general, 4 out of 5 of the best seasons in any cohort are achieved by WR's in that age 23-30 cohort.

 

What it means is simple, peak WR seasons typically happen between age 26 and 27, and while elite seasons still happen afterwards, only about 17-21% of them are by WR's that could be classified typically as 30 or older. 

 

In other words, McLaurin is already 2 years past his peak production age, and he's got about a 1 in 5 chance of producing elite WR seasons going forward, at best. 

 

That's my lazy way of doing the math of course, there are better ways of expressing it, but quite simply, past age 27, you can expect a steady and steep decline in production over time, with things accelerating significantly as players approach age 30. 

 

McLaurin is an aging WR, and not at his peak, anymore. Could still produce a great season or two or three, but that would be an outlier, then again, he himself was a college outlier prospect.

[Renegade7]

Replacing McClaurin is NOT a high priority, imo.

 

I'll agree with using our 1st round pick in 2025 on best pass catcher we can get to pair with whatever QB we pick this year.

 

Let the rest take care of itself, especially if we leave door to free agency to address this "problem" of not having a legit elite #1 WR.

 

Is Debo even playing for SF in the NFCCG?  how many legit elite #1 WRs are playing this coming Sunday?

 

Asking for a friend.

[kingdaddy]

1 hour ago, NoCalMike said:

The issue with McLaurin going forward (maybe not in 2024, but beyond that) is not whether he can be productive in the offense, but can he continue to be the featured #1 go-to WR and if not what do the numbers in his contract look like and/or if he makes to the end of the current contract how much are you willing to pay to keep him around for a different role versus how much he will be asking for.

Me personally, I want Terry to retired a Commander even if it means a reduced role in another season or two.  It's just that I don't know if the business-side of the sport will find a way to make it work with the direction the franchise is going. 

Get a tall WR in free agency...Higgins, Pittman, Evans, Tyler Boyd, Kendrick Bourne, Noah Brown, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine....Add a TE to pair with Logan Thomas if he'll stay on the cheap. 

If that plan fails then draft a tall WR in round 2. We need redzone targets with size to help our QB.

[Warhead36]

Even if McLaurin declines a bit, he's still a good player and you need reliable vets for a rookie QB to throw to. 

 

I mean we have over $90 mil in cap space, its not like we need to shed his salary.

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I know what @Voice_of_Reason is probably thinking.  Bring Jay back as an offensive coordinator along with his buddy Colt as the QB coach.  Joe Barry maybe as HC?

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, kingdaddy said:

Get a tall WR in free agency...

Did you say a TALL receiver?

 

Somebody, quick, call Anthony Mix! 

[alaroche04]

4 hours ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Recently posted deep dive on Jayden Daniels from our very own Colt MCoy.

 

We get some good, some bad, and as a pleasant surprise, not much ugly...

 

 

 

P.S. I think Colt might make a pretty good QB coach or passing game specialist. He's a good speaker/teacher and has a calm empathetic demeanor.

 

 

 

Daniels absolutely did not need to run on that first play that was highlighted.  Lacy (#2) was wide open down the middle of the field, and Daniels got impatient and ran. I don't agree with McCoy's assessment that nothing was there when Lacy was CLEARLY open.  This is ultimately why I don't think highly of Daniels as an option at #2.  He didn't show a propensity to make tight window throws in college and he rarely threw down the middle unless it was his first read or wide open.  And after watching this years uber physical playoff games, I don't think he makes it past the first quarter if he thinks running down the middle of the field is a good idea or his first instinct.  He will get murdered.

[ThatNFLChick]

24 minutes ago, alaroche04 said:

Daniels absolutely did not need to run on that first play that was highlighted.  Lacy (#2) was wide open down the middle of the field, and Daniels got impatient and ran. I don't agree with McCoy's assessment that nothing was there when Lacy was CLEARLY open.  This is ultimately why I don't think highly of Daniels as an option at #2.  He didn't show a propensity to make tight window throws in college and he rarely threw down the middle unless it was his first read or wide open.  And after watching this years uber physical playoff games, I don't think he makes it past the first quarter if he thinks running down the middle of the field is a good idea or his first instinct.  He will get murdered.

 

The middle of the field thing keeps being said and its flat out not true?

 

 

Colt even pointed out middle of the field, layered throws while his offensive line was getting him killed:

 

 

 

If people prefer Maye, that's cool but its weird to keep seeing the same thing repeated despite evidence to the contrary. If you don't want a dual threat QB who will sometimes take off when he sees a lane, that's fine.

I understand the issues with something like Bryce Young's height, there's nothing you can do to make him taller. You can easily put a player on a program to put on weight/build muscle (actors do it all the time). 

Edited January 23 by ThatNFLChick

[alaroche04]

Nothing you posted disproves what I said.  

 

"He didn't show a propensity to make tight window throws in college and he rarely threw down the middle unless it was his first read or wide open." I watched the games...if he threw down the middle, the receiver was wide open or it was a slant where that was his first read.  I noticed you ignored my comment about the receiver being wide open in the video above, and Daniels just tucking and running down the middle of field, where he'll get killed in the pros.

 

[ThatNFLChick]

16 minutes ago, alaroche04 said:

Nothing you posted disproves what I said.  

 

"He didn't show a propensity to make tight window throws in college and he rarely threw down the middle unless it was his first read or wide open." I watched the games...if he threw down the middle, the receiver was wide open or it was a slant where that was his first read.  I noticed you ignored my comment about the receiver being wide open in the video above, and Daniels just tucking and running down the middle of field, where he'll get killed in the pros.

 

 

I actually responded to it because I edited my reply but its fine. We disagree. There's no point to me debating hypothetical stuff like "he can't tuck the ball and run down the middle of the field" when we have seen Murray and Jackson do it a zillion times. Anyone can get hurt in the NFL. Anthony Richardson is massive and got injured before Bryce Young who is tiny (and before anyone says Bryce didn't run as much as Anthony, check the stats, thats false). It's a crapshoot. He's played against actual NFL defensive players (more than anyone in this draft) several times and been fine so I'm not too concerned. 

Edited January 23 by ThatNFLChick

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

Replacing McClaurin is NOT a high priority, imo.

 

I'll agree with using our 1st round pick in 2025 on best pass catcher we can get to pair with whatever QB we pick this year.

 

Let the rest take care of itself, especially if we leave door to free agency to address this "problem" of not having a legit elite #1 WR.

 

Is Debo even playing for SF in the NFCCG?  how many legit elite #1 WRs are playing this coming Sunday?

 

Asking for a friend.

Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, and that's a wrap. Looks like Rice and Zay are both "hits" but Im skeptical either will become top end WR's. 

 

WR isn't a priority for me either. Other than QB, we could go in any direction, I just think the fact that the class is very strong, and a bit less so next year could justify it. I'd pass on RB until next year, better class, and we should play out Robinson's contract, and not waste high value picks on RB's when we arent contending anyway. 

[ThatNFLChick]

7 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, and that's a wrap. Looks like Rice and Zay are both "hits" but Im skeptical either will become top end WR's. 

 

WR isn't a priority for me either. Other than QB, we could go in any direction, I just think the fact that the class is very strong, and a bit less so next year could justify it. I'd pass on RB until next year, better class, and we should play out Robinson's contract, and not waste high value picks on RB's when we arent contending anyway. 

 

I feel like this team does not have a clear #1 and it really needs one. Since this draft is so WR heavy, why not? Especially when we're likely losing Curis Samuel (who became our most reliable down the stretch). Get a 1, make Terry the 2 and move Dotson to the slot. 

 

I also think we need another RB to go with Robinson and Rodriguez (I am assuming Gibson will be gone). Maybe we can grab a speedster in FA rather than drafting. 

[88Comrade2000]

10 hours ago, skinsarethebest said:

The same Kirk who crapped the bed against a Giants team with nothing to play for when the playoffs were on the line? The same Kirk who was Captain Choke Artist against any meaningful opponent?  The same Kirk who has the football IQ of a rock? 
 

I know, thankfully you’re not really considering him, right?

 

but I have seen plenty of other people clamoring for him to return to the Commanders.  
I don’t get the Kirk Cousins love.  He is emblematic of why I’ve hated rooting for this franchise these past 10 years.  Overblown hype disguising unabashed mediocrity.  He can take his chest puffing “You Like That!!” and shove it as far as I’m concerned.  He is the polar opposite of the type of QB I would want leading this team in what I hope will be a true resurgence over the next few years.

If Lions beat San Fran; I can see Kirk there next year.  Purdy has already said they were looking for Tom Brady to be this year’s starter but that obviously didn’t happen.

[88Comrade2000]

6 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I think McLaurin will age pretty gracefully. I don't see him just completely falling off. I do think he was hampered by turf toe this year which affected his seperation. I wanna see him with a top notch blue chip QB and coach/playcaller combo before calling him washed. 

Trade him to KC. Let him experience some glory before he ages out. By the time we are ready to challenge for championships; he’ll be old and on the decline.