The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Way way way too early for mocks.

Mock drafts are completely useless under all circumstances, except for their entertainment value and to employ the talking heads who do them.  

 

There is no such thing as "flying up the draft boards" because there's not one team who's going to tell any draftnik anything about their draft board.  A casual, "yeah, we like that guy, we like this guy" is about as much as you'll ever get.  And then you have to decide if you're being lied to or not.

 

The whole industry was invited by Mel Kiper, and there should be a "Mel Tax" for anybody talking about the draft.

 

I love Mel.  He's wrong way more than he's right.  But he was THE pioneer and maybe the single most important person not directly employed by the NFL in the history of the league.  The fact he's not in the HOF is an absolute crime.  

 

 

1 hour ago, OtisDriftwood25 said:

I’d be interested to look up his previous years. People really liked Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Justin Fields and more. If he has a good track record I could get on board.

It doesn't matter.  Every draftnik gets it wrong WAY more than they get it right. Even employed GMs who have the benefit of medicals and interviews and complete access to everything they want get it wrong a lot.  

 

Picking a QB is like betting on roulette.  You guess, you put down your chips, and then you see if you're right a few years later.  

[HTTRDynasty]

 

 

1 minute ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

The fact that Daniels is this close including his years at ASU is nuts. That's pretty consistent since we are comparing 2 years for Williams and Maye to 4 for Daniels

 

If we compared Daniels first two years (excluding 2020 since he only had 105 dropbacks), it would be closer to 74% adjusted completion percentage and 8.6 ADOT, so not that impressive in my eyes. 

[ThatNFLChick]

Mark Bullock is watching Drake Maye now. Shared some of his thoughts (he only watched the SC game so far)

 

 

[FootballZombie]

High volume entertainment is just what I need today

Let it continue

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

One thing which makes figuring out which QB is good at what is, in general, the offenses in college are just so dramatically different than the NFL, even with the influx of some college concepts into the NFL game.  

 

And that's not just my opinion, but I heard Polian talk about it, and that was a while ago.  And it's just gotten MORE pronounced since then. He said what made it difficult is they were looking for traits which you need in the NFL but they don't really rely on in college.  This conversation was in relation to picking Peyton, and he said one of the reason was you could see on film more NFL characteristic throws than with Ryan Leaf.  

 

Leaf was picked, after a legendary trade up, by Bobby Beathard, who was the architect of the golden era here in Washington, along with Gibbs.  (And don't give me any "Charley Casserly!" bull-crap. Beathard built ALL those teams. Charlie just stuck around the last 3 years and managed not to screw it up.  Dude is a know nothing idiot who couldn't replenish the talent after Beathard left and failed miserably with the Texans.  My guy has failed up his entire life.  

 

Anyway, the analogy I use is you're watching a college drama performance of Fiddler on the Roof and trying to figure out who is going to be the next Tom Cruise.  Is it acting? Yes. Is it VERY likely that every movie star out there has at one point in their HS or College career acted in Fiddler on the Roof? Yes.  Are there elements which you might be able to pick up on to say an actor could be the next Tom Cruise?  Maybe to the trained eye. 

 

But it's a VERY different game, and you're going to get it wrong a lot.  Every so often, you'll find one who jumps out.  

 

The most important quality in picking a QB and having them work out is luck.  Which is why you just have to keep taking shots until you get lucky.  

[KDawg]

One of the reasons I respect SIP, beyond his measured takes and well thought out messages is that he doesn’t post with an agenda.

 

Other posters who are thoughtful also tend to only post things when they play to their agenda. And it’s rarely observations they made on their own, it’s observations of others.

 

If you provide info it should be about your own observations or be something you do to raise awareness for all parties and covering all angles.

 

It’s the best way to gain respect here.

 

in my opinion, of course.

 

EDIT: he has an opinion. And that’s not what I mean. I’m referring to only posting things that fit his opinion. He’ll post whatever he finds about prospects, whether he agrees or not.

 

 

Edited January 23 by KDawg

[The Consigliere]

32 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Mock drafts are completely useless under all circumstances, except for their entertainment value and to employ the talking heads who do them.  

 

There is no such thing as "flying up the draft boards" because there's not one team who's going to tell any draftnik anything about their draft board.  A casual, "yeah, we like that guy, we like this guy" is about as much as you'll ever get.  And then you have to decide if you're being lied to or not.

 

The whole industry was invited by Mel Kiper, and there should be a "Mel Tax" for anybody talking about the draft.

 

I love Mel.  He's wrong way more than he's right.  But he was THE pioneer and maybe the single most important person not directly employed by the NFL in the history of the league.  The fact he's not in the HOF is an absolute crime.  

 

 

It doesn't matter.  Every draftnik gets it wrong WAY more than they get it right. Even employed GMs who have the benefit of medicals and interviews and complete access to everything they want get it wrong a lot.  

 

Picking a QB is like betting on roulette.  You guess, you put down your chips, and then you see if you're right a few years later.  

Ehhh, pretty strong reports that the prior Wizard GM relied on draft aggregator data to make decisions. I definitely think teams use phone calls and mocks as aggregation tools for projecting in general what boards look like (because most of the boards are based on word of mouth, rather than on guys actually evaluating these players to the finest detail). 

[HTTRDynasty]

24 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

Mark Bullock is watching Drake Maye now. Shared some of his thoughts (he only watched the SC game so far)

 

 

 

I respect Bullock's takes in general, but I really think he needs to zoom out here and look at the big picture.  Maye had the highest average depth of target in the country in both 2022 and 2023 (for QBs with ~500+ drop backs).

 

Under that backdrop, I'm not sure how useful it is for Bullock to point out how conservative he thinks Maye was in one game.

 

But I'm interested to read his full report after he's watched a lot more games.

[The Consigliere]

3 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

I respect Bullock's takes in general, but I really think he needs to zoom out here and look at the big picture.  Maye had the highest average depth of target in the country in both 2022 and 2023 (for QBs with ~500+ drop backs).

 

Under that backdrop, I'm not sure how useful it is for Bullock to point out how conservative he thinks Maye was in one game.

 

But I'm interested to read his full report after he's watched a lot more games.

It's not, its why I'm not a fan of tape grinding in general. I'm not being fair in saying this, but with most prospects, you get bias read into it, sometimes deliberately, sometimes not, just from sample size. The person is just too much a part of the eval process. You can tweak #'s, and manipulate them, but the data is still the data in its rawest form. I trust your DOT data infinitely more than a tape grinder reporting on a game, for obvious reasons.

 

 

[ThatNFLChick]

Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

 

I respect Bullock's takes in general, but I really think he needs to zoom out here and look at the big picture.  Maye had the highest average depth of target in the country in both 2022 and 2023 (for QBs with ~500+ drop backs).

 

Under that backdrop, I'm not sure how useful it is for Bullock to point out how conservative he thinks Maye was in one game.

 

But I'm interested to read his full report after he's watched a lot more games.

 

He'll probably change his opinion as he watches more. 

 

I'm curious about what philosophies Peters has when it comes to the draft and QB. I remember last year Louis Riddick mentioned that some GMs really only focused on a prospect's final season while others were more interested in the aggregate. 

[Thinking Skins]

1 minute ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

He'll probably change his opinion as he watches more. 

 

I'm curious about what philosophies Peters has when it comes to the draft and QB. I remember last year Louis Riddick mentioned that some GMs really only focused on a prospect's final season while others were more interested in the aggregate. 

I wonder how much tape Peters has watched and how different it is watching the tape vs watching All-22 vs watching it live and talking to the coaches and the players. In this game for example (south Carolina), he could literally ask Maye what he was thinking and why he decided to check down instead of being more aggressive like he has a history of being. 

[The Consigliere]

2 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

He'll probably change his opinion as he watches more. 

 

I'm curious about what philosophies Peters has when it comes to the draft and QB. I remember last year Louis Riddick mentioned that some GMs really only focused on a prospect's final season while others were more interested in the aggregate. 

Worth noting the QB's:

Tom Brady

Matt Cassel

Cutler

Orton

Manning

Brian Hoyer

Garoppolo

CJ Beathard

Nick Mullens

Trey Lance

Brock Purdy

Sam Darnold

 

I could be missing guys, but those are basically the guys he worked with. 

[Skinsinparadise]

54 minutes ago, KDawg said:

One of the reasons I respect SIP, beyond his measured takes and well thought out messages is that he doesn’t post with an agenda.

 

Other posters who are thoughtful also tend to only post things when they play to their agenda. And it’s rarely observations they made on their own, it’s observations of others.

 

If you provide info it should be about your own observations or be something you do to raise awareness for all parties and covering all angles.

 

It’s the best way to gain respect here.

 

in my opinion, of course.

 

EDIT: he has an opinion. And that’s not what I mean. I’m referring to only posting things that fit his opinion. He’ll post whatever he finds about prospects, whether he agrees or not.

 

 

 

Thanks.  You are balanced, too of course so it leads to good discussion

 

If I listened to Keim or whomever and just regurgitated the parts I liked and omitted the parts I didn't like, it would be boring and it would be a disservice here to others.

 

I am a Maye over Daniels guy but I was the first to post the Kiper tweet of having Daniels go to this team at #2. 

 

As for these draft prospects and forming our own opinons.  It's a heck of a lot more fun than just regurgitating other takes. I'll include other takes but it rarely influences mine or I know yours for that matter.  Especially for QBs no one has a defintive take.  If I had to pick a pet peeve on that front is people saying they like or not like a player (especially a QB) without really explaining why.

 

As to Daniels.

 

I think we see Daniels just about exactly the same.  Dynamic player with special mobility. good deep ball, decent arm strength.  But he waits for his receivers to be open versus throwing with anticipation on the first and 2nd level, so in turn doesn't make tight window throws, also when flushed in the pocket his go to move is to run versus throwing off platform.  That doesn't translate well to the NFL especially at his body type.  

 

He seems to have high intangibles and is talented.    Really good upside.  But he's more of a projection than some of the top QBs we've had in recent drafts.  The last QB that was talked about going this high where durability was mentioned as a concern to this level was Kyler Murray.

 

As to Maye.  

 

I think I like him a little more than you.  But I do think overall we aren't far apart.   He comes off like he has a strong arm.  Ironically Nick from PFF's explanation for believing he has a strong arm is the exact thing I've used in the past which is referencing some of his throws off his backfoot.   His footwork is much better within the pocket (then on the move) when he has time to set his feet.  On the move his footwork isn't often aligned to the target and his accuracy goes downhill and he throws more picks in that context.  But he has some killer moments too off platform.  His accuracy is good in between the numbers especially on the 2nd level.  He has good mobility.  Nice deep ball.  His accuracy on the first level is hit and miss -- needs to improve on that front.   He rushes some of those throws where again his footwork is off. 

 

We both think if they clean up his footwork his upside is high.    IMO he has a higher floor than Daniels. 

Edited January 23 by Skinsinparadise

[Chris 44]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

As to Maye.  

 

I think I like him a little more than you.  But I do think overall we aren't far apart.   He comes off like he has a strong arm.  Ironically Nick from PFF's explanation for believing he has a strong arm is the exact thing I've used in the past which is referencing some of his throws off his backfoot.   His footwork is much better within the pocket then on the move when he has time to set his feet.  On the move his footwork isn't often aligned to the target and his accuracy goes downhill and he  throws picks.  But he has some killer moments too off platform.  His accuracy is good in between the numbers especially on the 2nd level.  He has good mobility.  Nice deep ball.  His accuracy on the first level is hit and miss -- needs to improve on that front.  

 

We both think if they clean up his footwork his upside is high.    IMO he has a higher floor than Daniels. 

Love to hear both your takes (KDawg) on Maye as compared to Howell (pre NFL) I think it would be a good comp due to them coming out of the same school/scheme etc. How does Maye project compared to Howell?

[CapsSkins]

7 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

Love to hear both your takes (KDawg) on Maye as compared to Howell (pre NFL) I think it would be a good comp due to them coming out of the same school/scheme etc. How does Maye project compared to Howell?

 

Consensus seems to be similar-ish skillsets but a better prospect across the board.

[Chris 44]

3 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Consensus seems to be similar-ish skillsets but a better prospect across the board.

The biggest concerns I had with Howell ended up being decision making and his height. I think he seemed to make better decisions early but I think the sacks got in his head and really impacted his game, ended up overcompensating and tried to make plays when they wern't there. If he could get over the bad decision making he could be a viable option. But I really believe his height plays a huge part in his erratic throws especially with not having the experience to anticipate a defense. Maye is listed as 6' 4" which is a huge difference and with everything else being equal gives him a huge advantage over Howell. I just dont know enough about Mayes game to compare the other traits.

[Command The 414]

Another opinion on Maye from Breer

 

https://youtu.be/wESxDci25MQ?si=nfnujBWfn5CnR_UT

 

I think just like anything there will be various opinions on a matter and ultimately it comes down to Peters pulling the trigger or not pulling the trigger…

[FootballZombie]

26 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

Maye is listed as 6' 4" which is a huge difference and with everything else being equal gives him a huge advantage over Howell.

 

I'm extra skittish about height after seeing teams this year directly tell us after a game that their goal on D was to clog the middle to prevent the 6'1 guy from seeing the field. Even worse when the strategy actually works.

 

Life is just easier for the tall guy. That does not mean the 6'1 guy can't make the throw, but there will be times when they simply have to work harder to do it.

 

 

...

 

Speaking of which whatever happened to Giganto from training camp? Dude could just drop balls from space if I remember correctly.

[skinsmania123]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

Daniels doesn’t make enough tight window throws for me to be comfortable with him at 2. He has great accuracy… when guys are wide open. I worry about contested passes in the NFL. A lot.

 

And the hits he takes. 

So are you saying with the hits he takes we could have another potential RG3 issue?  I watched a lot of what I could find on Daniels, and it looked to me like he made some really quick reads, so that that the guy was open.  I respect your opinion.  So are you leaning more towards Williams or Maye at this juncture? 

[KDawg]

Just now, skinsmania123 said:

So are you saying with the hits he takes we could have another potential RG3 issue?  I watched a lot of what I could find on Daniels, and it looked to me like he made some really quick reads, so that that the guy was open.  I respect your opinion.  So are you leaning more towards Williams or Maye at this juncture? 

Yes.

 

I have Daniels closer to McCarthy and Nix, to be honest. But I’m pretty high on both of them. I just think their ceiling:floor ratio isn’t quite what Maye and Williams’ are.

 

To be clear, I think Maye and Williams have a high bust rate, too. I don’t love any QB in this class, really.

 

Bur Daniels makes me nervous with his build and the hits he takes as a runner.

 

I am by NO means writing him off. He has too much talent to say he won’t succeed. I just feel like I’ve seen this movie with mobile QBs who take lots of hits.

[skinsmania123]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

Yes.

 

I have Daniels closer to McCarthy and Nix, to be honest. But I’m pretty high on both of them. I just think their ceiling:floor ratio isn’t quite what Maye and Williams’ are.

 

To be clear, I think Maye and Williams have a high bust rate, too. I don’t love any QB in this class, really.

 

Bur Daniels makes me nervous with his build and the hits he takes as a runner.

 

I am by NO means writing him off. He has too much talent to say he won’t succeed. I just feel like I’ve seen this movie with mobile QBs who take lots of hits.

So, do you think the GM is going to take a QB because it is a bit like, well you just have to swing until you hit on a franchise QB? And that is just the way it is. 

 

And I am just throwing it out there, because we have the time to do this, but is there any QB, i.e. Kirk Cousin's or even Geno Smith, that you would trade for, and then get a boat load of picks, by trading the #2 spot with another team?  A team that is in need of a new QB? Maybe even Denver?  It just seems to me our roster, for the most part needs an overhaul.

 

And again, maybe I am wrong and maybe they just need better coaching but the D line, the secondary, our O line is just not very talented.  And I think we need a true #1 big, bodied receiver, a very good TE, and a quicker back. 

 

If you are the GM and you think you could pick up a lot of really good talent in this draft, wouldn't you just take another QB, on a prove it sort of deal while you build the roster?   

[KDawg]

8 minutes ago, skinsmania123 said:

So, do you think the GM is going to take a QB because it is a bit like, well you just have to swing until you hit on a franchise QB? And that is just the way it is. 

 

And I am just throwing it out there, because we have the time to do this, but is there any QB, i.e. Kirk Cousin's or even Geno Smith, that you would trade for, and then get a boat load of picks, by trading the #2 spot with another team?  A team that is in need of a new QB? Maybe even Denver?  It just seems to me our roster, for the most part needs an overhaul.

 

And again, maybe I am wrong and maybe they just need better coaching but the D line, the secondary, our O line is just not very talented.  And I think we need a true #1 big, bodied receiver, a very good TE, and a quicker back. 

 

If you are the GM and you think you could pick up a lot of really good talent in this draft, wouldn't you just take another QB, on a prove it sort of deal while you build the roster?   

I think a lot of us love the draft class. And we’d like to draft something other than QB.

 

But if I were the GM of this team, given how things have played out and where we are as a franchise (that is essentially an expansion team given our cap space, new ownership, new front office and new coaching staff) it’s a no brainer to me.

 

We have to go QB.

Edited January 23 by KDawg

[Est.1974]

You can see a clear shift already starting to appear with Daniels jumping Maye in certain circles. 

[The Consigliere]

Everyone here would want to trade down if we had drafted Mahomes or Watson in '17, probably Baker in '18, Kyler in '19, Tua or Herbert in '20, maybe Fields in '21, traded up for Stroud or Richardson in '23. But we didn't, and all we have at QB is an empty room and Howell. So we have to go QB. We don't have a choice. If the talent wasn't here. If this was 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2022, I'd be all for taking the best non-QB on the board or a trade down, but it's not those years, this year has great options at QB, and we are in a slot that allows us to take one, and take one we must. Again, if this was the same talent class but in 2022, w/those '22 QB's, I'd be trading down or taking the best player on the board. But this class has Williams, Maye and Daniels, so we go QB. Its not reaching like those other classes, this is much more akin to 2004, 2012, 2017, 2020, 2023 than it is '13-'16, '19, or '22. 

[KDawg]

12 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

You can see a clear shift already starting to appear with Daniels jumping Maye in certain circles. 

Yeah. I don’t like it. But everyone has an opinion and most of them stink, so…

 

I’m not invested enough to post propaganda for any specific prospect.