All things defense

[Skinsinparadise]

7 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Thats really cool. Im excited to see him play more. Sounds like exactly what we need more of.

 

It's not been hard to piece togther that William Jackson might not be the most with it player on the secondary at least thus far.  He has often been the common denominator with the secondary's miscommunication in the backfield.  Mark Bullock did an in depth clip by clip showing of it.   

 

So maybe putting a cereberal player like Danny Johnson albeit limited back there to essentially replace Jackson might have at a miniumum helped stop those weekly clown show deep plays where one player (often Jackson in that mix) and the safety look at each other dumbfounded about who should have been covering who/where?

[Koolblue13]

17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It's not been hard to piece togther that William Jackson might not be the most with it player on the secondary at least thus far.  He has often been the common denominator with the secondary's miscommunication in the backfield.  Mark Bullock did an in depth clip by clip showing of it.   

 

So maybe putting a cereberal player like Danny Johnson albeit limited back there to essentially replace Jackson might have at a miniumum helped stop those weekly clown show deep plays where one player (often Jackson in that mix) and the safety look at each other dumbfounded about who should have been covering who/where?

With the way we bring pressure, we don't "need" elite secondary players on every down. We need guys who can close on the ball, understand where they should be and make solid open field tackles, so DJ being an upgrade is possible, even if he's limited compared to WJ3. He should look great this week against an underwhelming offense. 

[Gurgeh]

6 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

I’ve always liked DJ but he’s been here, what, 3, 4 years? At a certain point he is just a guy.

 

Unfortunately for us "just a guy" is an improvement over what we had. He'll probably get targetted every game, but at least it looks like he'll be in the right position to do something about it.

[Warhead36]

So why is WJ3 struggling so much with this D? Is it THAT complicated? He was by all counts an above average(at least)man to man cover CB in Cincy. Can we not give him a simplified role? 

[kingdaddy]

We may need to trade for Jimmy Moreland back....the defense hasn't been close to the same since we cut him. He must've been the glue holding it all together.

[Mooka]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

So why is WJ3 struggling so much with this D? Is it THAT complicated? He was by all counts an above average(at least)man to man cover CB in Cincy. Can we not give him a simplified role? 

 

His man coverage looks terrible too.

 

Think he's just damaged goods; too many injuries. Bengals let him walk for a reason. 

[skinny21]

8 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

I’ve always liked DJ but he’s been here, what, 3, 4 years? At a certain point he is just a guy.

Pretty much agree here, but I will say that I think it kind of depends on the context.  Whether you’re hoping he can become a quality starter, or if you’re just talking about (potentially) being a solid depth player.  And in the context of our team, it could be that he simply helps smooth out some of the rough edges on the back end… or he simply allows Fuller to stay outside (while Jackson is out) rather than forcing Apke into that outside role.

 

I guess what I’m trying to say is that even if your 5th or 6th corner doesn’t show potential to be a quality starter, it’s possible they can still be quality depth (ie more than a JAG).  We’ll see.

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

So why is WJ3 struggling so much with this D? Is it THAT complicated? He was by all counts an above average(at least)man to man cover CB in Cincy. Can we not give him a simplified role? 

 

I watched William Jackson be owned by Terry in practice during camp, to say it wasn't a fair fight would be an understatement, it looked like i could cover Terry better.   The media watching those practices brought it up a number of times and wondered if Jackson should be a concern.  I blew it off as hey its just training camp. 

 

He's been playing poorly in both man and zone.   Last year they played one of lowest rates of man, now (at least before last week) they were one of the highest rates of man.

 

It's too early to say but it could be he's just another FA flop signing.  We've had a bunch like that especially in the secondary over the years like Culliver, Norman, etc.  It's not as if these guys have left and killed it elsewhere with "better" coaching.

 

Darby had one of his best years last season after some down seasons with Philly. Was that because he got better coaching here?   Not sure.  But I think he might have been hungry playing on a one year contract.  

 

Some say some players lose their zest after getting a big contract and that's part of the reason why some FAs flop.  I think its too early to tell with Jackson, I am not down on him at all on the aggregate, some players need a wake up call to get them going, maybe being out a week helps Jackson regroup? 

 

But yeah thus far I'd put Jackson at the top of the most dissappointing off season move.  Fitz and Samuel were just bad luck.  Jackson IMO so far is looking like a Norman level bust if his play doesn't improve. 

 

Edited October 29, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

2 hours ago, Mooka said:

 

His man coverage looks terrible too.

 

Think he's just damaged goods; too many injuries. Bengals let him walk for a reason. 

But he hasn't really been injured. He missed two games each of the last two years and played all 16 games the year before that. He did have injuries his first two years but has been mostly healthy recently.

41 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I watched William Jackson be owned by Terry in practice during camp, to say it wasn't a fair fight would be an understatement, it looked like i could cover Terry better.   The media watching those practices brought it up a number of times and wondered if Jackson should be a concern.  I blew it off as hey its just training camp. 

 

He's been playing poorly in both man and zone.   Last year they played one of lowest rates of man, now (at least before last week) they were one of the highest rates of man.

 

It's too early to say but it could be he's just another FA flop signing.  We've had a bunch like that especially in the secondary over the years like Culliver, Norman, etc.  It's not as if these guys have left and killed it elsewhere with "better" coaching.

 

Darby had one of his best years last season after some down seasons with Philly. Was that because he got better coaching here?   Not sure.  But I think he might have been hungry playing on a one year contract.  

 

Some say some players lose their zest after getting a big contract and that's part of the reason why some FAs flop.  I think its too early to tell with Jackson, I am not down on him at all on the aggregate, some players need a wake up call to get them going, maybe being out a week helps Jackson regroup? 

 

But yeah thus far I'd put Jackson at the top of the most dissappointing off season move.  Fitz and Samuel were just bad luck.  Jackson IMO so far is looking like a Norman level bust if his play doesn't improve. 

 

Hmm maybe. But I don't think he's dogging it out there, he's just genuinely lost and confused too much.

 

It could be one of those things where CB play is just really erratic year to year outside of the few really top notch elite guys. You mentioend Darby but there are other examples across the league of guys who are good one year and suck the next year and vice versa. James Bradberry has been bad this year after being lockdown last year. On the flip side Xavier Rhodes was awful his last year with the Vikings but last year with the Colts he was excellent.

[Mooka]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

But he hasn't really been injured. He missed two games each of the last two years and played all 16 games the year before that. He did have injuries his first two years but has been mostly healthy recently.

Hmm maybe. But I don't think he's dogging it out there, he's just genuinely lost and confused too much.

 

Its hard to know player's real injuries.

 

Jackson played the entire 2019 season with a torn labrum for example. 

 

He's looked pretty terrible all season, it's hard to believe he's been 100% at all. 

[Skinsinparadise]

There draft picks were all good interviews, Forrest I recall commented on was maybe the exception.  He was a good interview, articulate guy, etc but i thought him stressing that he was a special teams player first before being a safety came off a bit strange to me.    I forgot how he made the point but it just hit me really over the top about how he thinks of himself as a special teams guy who happens to play safety or something like that. Maybe it means nothing but it stuck with me. 

 

 

 

[PartyPosse]

4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

But he hasn't really been injured. He missed two games each of the last two years and played all 16 games the year before that. He did have injuries his first two years but has been mostly healthy recently.

Hmm maybe. But I don't think he's dogging it out there, he's just genuinely lost and confused too much.

 

It could be one of those things where CB play is just really erratic year to year outside of the few really top notch elite guys. You mentioend Darby but there are other examples across the league of guys who are good one year and suck the next year and vice versa. James Bradberry has been bad this year after being lockdown last year. On the flip side Xavier Rhodes was awful his last year with the Vikings but last year with the Colts he was excellent.

I've always been in the belief that no other position is contingent on confidence than CB. He's definitely second guessing his own decisions out there, or, at best, taking an extra second. That's all it takes. Not saying that's the root cause of his struggles, but there are definitely more instances of CBs falling off a cliff for no reason than any other position save maybe WR. 

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

 

Hmm maybe. But I don't think he's dogging it out there, he's just genuinely lost and confused too much.

 

By some FAs aren't the same after the next contract, I don't mean they dog it.  But its practically the stereotype for FA in all sports, that some players by reputation don't play with the same fire-oomph after getting the fat contract.  I got no idea if that's the case with Jackson or not.  Just winging it as for why his play has falled off.  I'll just say based on the facts the idea that Jackson's struggles is squarely about Del Rio's scheme IMO isn't true.   They've played plenty of man.  And even when they did play man, he hasn't played well. 

 

3 hours ago, Mooka said:

 

Its hard to know player's real injuries.

 

Jackson played the entire 2019 season with a torn labrum for example. 

 

He's looked pretty terrible all season, it's hard to believe he's been 100% at all. 

 

It could be it.  He's played banged up this season.  Like I mentioned in training camp he didn't look remotely like a shut down corner, he looked closer to some undrafted FA scrub trying to make the roster.  Like I said, I shrugged it off at the time thinking well its camp, no big deal.  But some in the media who watched him did make a big deal of it if you guys recall. 

Edited October 29, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

20 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

It's too early to say but it could be he's just another FA flop signing. 

 

But yeah thus far I'd put Jackson at the top of the most dissappointing off season move.  Fitz and Samuel were just bad luck.  Jackson IMO so far is looking like a Norman level bust if his play doesn't improve. 

Agreed. The staff was giddy when signing Fitz, Samuel and Jackson. They had to have studied the hell out of Jacksons film and liked what they saw. 

 

The team has gotten squat out of their big 3 signings. Fitz and Samuel were out of their control. Hopefully Samuel and Jackson were not damaged goods before bringing them in

[Going Commando]

20 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Some say some players lose their zest after getting a big contract and that's part of the reason why some FAs flop.  I think its too early to tell with Jackson, I am not down on him at all on the aggregate, some players need a wake up call to get them going, maybe being out a week helps Jackson regroup?

 

I remember being skeptical of the signing and questioned if he was an actual upgrade over Darby.  Pretty much got crickets for response as I think most people took the claims that he was one of the best man cover corners in the NFL for granted even though those were super sketchy.  The reason I was skeptical?  His AV scores weren't any good.  His career high AV score was 6 last season. In AV scale, that's slightly above average starter to quality rotation back up level.  His previous three AV scores were 4, 4, and 3.  Those are below average starter and ordinary back up totals.  By contrast Darby had 9 AV last season, which is high quality starter territory, almost approaching a pro bowl nod level of production and contribution.  It was an outlier season for him, but he also had seasons of 6 and 5 AV so there was reason to believe that he was at least as good as Jackson based on their career production.  We got Darby on a bargain deal and massively and predictably overspent on Jackson.

 

IMO, AV has been the best single metric for measuring contributions and impact across positions and schemes for a given player's career, and you can use it to see what a player has actually been doing for his teams in each of his seasons.  And it can be predictive in the sense that you wouldn't necessarily expect a five year vet to massively outperform his previous AV totals unless you had reason to believe those totals were suppressed by things like games missed.  And if the player in question is getting starters snaps, then it's vastly better at measuring and comparing and predicting comprehensive impact than PFF scores are, for example.  We need to be using AV as a touchstone metric when we are doing pro player evaluations and plotting out free agency moves and trades.  If we had, then we would not have ****ed up so bad with the William Jackson contract, and it probably would have cooled off the impetus to sign Landon Collins since he was on a major downward trend in AV.

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I remember being skeptical of the signing and questioned if he was an actual upgrade over Darby.  Pretty much got crickets for response as I think most people took the claims that he was one of the best man cover corners in the NFL for granted even though those were super sketchy.  The reason I was skeptical?  His AV scores weren't any good.  His career high AV score was 6 last season. In AV scale, that's slightly above average starter to quality rotation back up level.  His previous three AV scores were 4, 4, and 3.  Those are below average starter and ordinary back up totals.  By contrast Darby had 9 AV last season, which is high quality starter territory, almost approaching a pro bowl nod level of production and contribution.  It was an outlier season for him, but he also had seasons of 6 and 5 AV so there was reason to believe that he was at least as good as Jackson based on their career production.  We got Darby on a bargain deal and massively and predictably overspent on Jackson.

 

IMO, AV has been the best single metric for measuring contributions and impact across positions and schemes for a given player's career, and you can use it to see what a player has actually been doing for his teams in each of his seasons.  And it can be predictive in the sense that you wouldn't necessarily expect a five year vet to massively outperform his previous AV totals unless you had reason to believe those totals were suppressed by things like games missed.  And if the player in question is getting starters snaps, then it's vastly better at measuring and comparing and predicting comprehensive impact than PFF scores are, for example.  We need to be using AV as a touchstone metric when we are doing pro player evaluations and plotting out free agency moves and trades.  If we had, then we would not have ****ed up so bad with the William Jackson contract, and it probably would have cooled off the impetus to sign Landon Collins since he was on a major downward trend in AV.

Where do you get these AV values? I'm curious where other players stand. Also curious how its measured.

[HigSkin]

Oh boy...

 

 

[PartyPosse]

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I remember being skeptical of the signing and questioned if he was an actual upgrade over Darby.  Pretty much got crickets for response as I think most people took the claims that he was one of the best man cover corners in the NFL for granted even though those were super sketchy.  The reason I was skeptical?  His AV scores weren't any good.  His career high AV score was 6 last season. In AV scale, that's slightly above average starter to quality rotation back up level.  His previous three AV scores were 4, 4, and 3.  Those are below average starter and ordinary back up totals.  By contrast Darby had 9 AV last season, which is high quality starter territory, almost approaching a pro bowl nod level of production and contribution.  It was an outlier season for him, but he also had seasons of 6 and 5 AV so there was reason to believe that he was at least as good as Jackson based on their career production.  We got Darby on a bargain deal and massively and predictably overspent on Jackson.

 

IMO, AV has been the best single metric for measuring contributions and impact across positions and schemes for a given player's career, and you can use it to see what a player has actually been doing for his teams in each of his seasons.  And it can be predictive in the sense that you wouldn't necessarily expect a five year vet to massively outperform his previous AV totals unless you had reason to believe those totals were suppressed by things like games missed.  And if the player in question is getting starters snaps, then it's vastly better at measuring and comparing and predicting comprehensive impact than PFF scores are, for example.  We need to be using AV as a touchstone metric when we are doing pro player evaluations and plotting out free agency moves and trades.  If we had, then we would not have ****ed up so bad with the William Jackson contract, and it probably would have cooled off the impetus to sign Landon Collins since he was on a major downward trend in AV.

Yeah. Darby is certainly lighting it up in Denver, giving up catches at a 72% rate and a qb rating against at 122 in three games. He was a product of a potent pass rush and a lack of high end QBs. His numbers last year certainly weren’t in line with every other year.

Edited October 30, 2021 by PartyPosse

[Going Commando]

3 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Where do you get these AV values? I'm curious where other players stand. Also curious how its measured.

 

profootball-reference.com calculates and lists them.  This is the index with links to the post explaining how the creator came up with the stat:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html

 

Basically it takes how your offense or defense did vs league averages that season and uses a set of metrics to determine each player's contribution to that unit's performance.  It's pretty similar in concept to win shares in basketball.  The scale I've worked out to translate AV totals into verbiage we're more familiar with is  something like this:

 

0-4 = Back up or rookie/replacement level caliber season

5-6 = Average starter or good reserve caliber

7-9 = Solid to high quality starter caliber

10 -13 = Fringe Probowler to solid Probowler caliber

14 -16 = Fringe All Pro to solid All Pro caliber

17-19 = Fringe MVP caliber

20+ = Solid MVP caliber

 

Those aren't ironclad tiers but they generally match up with how those seasons get viewed.

 

Teams are going to generally have more sophisticated metrics than what's available to us.  But for us, AV is a useful reference to us because it completely cuts out the Q Rating noise and bias from the picture.  It's better than any other publicly available comprehensive metric for measuring individual player seasons and comparing them across positions that I've encountered.

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

I feel like we got more mileage out of JMoreland and FMoreau than we do with Jackson. What a mess.

Still think St. Juste and JDavis will be incredible players.

 

Somewhat off topic, but the overall play around the league has been hot garbage all year. I can’t remember a time when there were so many awful teams at one time.

 

Texans, Jags, Jets, Bears, WFT, Giants, Eagles, Lions are gross. Steelers, Saints, Seahawks, Chiefs all in decline. Just a **** product right now.

 

[method man]

20 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

There draft picks were all good interviews, Forrest I recall commented on was maybe the exception.  He was a good interview, articulate guy, etc but i thought him stressing that he was a special teams player first before being a safety came off a bit strange to me.    I forgot how he made the point but it just hit me really over the top about how he thinks of himself as a special teams guy who happens to play safety or something like that. Maybe it means nothing but it stuck with me. 

 

 

 

I hated this pick as it was meant to be DeShazor’s replacement, which seems unnecessary because DeShazor isn’t expensive. For a fifth round pick, I hoped they would try to get more upside like they have done in the past with Settle, Ion, Hudson, Holcomb and others.

 

IMO picking Bates in the 4th was terrible value as well. You can find decent blocking TEs late on Day 3 or as street FAs (a la Yoder, Logan Paulsen, etc)

 

This team needs to shoot for upside in Day 3

[Silvernon]

I'm okay with spending a premium Day 3 pick on teams. At least this team isn't selecting kickers on the first two days. 

 

In some ways, Apke is supporting Way's ability. Without Apke, more punts will be returned and farther. Field position is key for an inept offensive team. 

 

Would it be better to get these guys in the 6th round? Yes. For whatever reason, it's usually tough to find competence in this area.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Die Hard]

57 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Except WFT wouldn’t use him the same way and he’d be terrible here.

[PlayAction]

In a bad season the only hope to cling to is the upside of a rookie class plus the free agent acquisitions.  Unfortunately, the draft class has been underwhelming and the free agents have fared even worse.