Gurgeh

I like all the players we've picked so far. They aren't necessarily the set of players I would have picked, but I can see the sense behind all of them. I'd have liked to draft OL earlier, but it seems so did they, the trade up just didn't work out. I wish we had found someone other than the Eagles to trade down with, but we got two good players out of it.

We are also learning from what's happening. The effectiveness of sea drones. The weakness of our artillery ammunition supply. How drone surveillance makes it very difficult to mass troops and armor for an attack without the other side knowing. The ability to restock minefields faster than they can be cleared. What actually works in battlefield conditions and what doesn't (the Ukrainians have given up on some of the equipment and systems they've been supplied with because experience has shown they are simply ineffective against a near-equivalent foe). IMO the biggest and most dangerous thing China will take from all this is that the US isn't really interested in defending democracies anymore. However expensive it is fighting in Ukraine, it'll be economic peanuts compared to what will happen if war breaks out in Taiwan.

They have a long history of attacking Russia Islamic State’s deadly Moscow attack highlights its fixation with Russia | Moscow concert hall attack | The Guardian A claim has surfaced that the attack was carried out by Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) a regional affiliate of the IS terrorist organisation. IS has been implicated in some of Russia’s largest recent terror attacks, including the 2017 bombing in the St Petersburg metro that killed 15 and injured 45. The group, which is a branch of IS mainly based in Afghanistan, has increasingly focused its attention on Russia since the United States left Afghanistan in 2021. The group was formed in 2015 by members of militant groups, including those from Pakistan and Uzbekistan, and is active in central Asia and Russia. It carried out twin bombings in January in Iran that killed nearly 100 people. ... Putin changed the course of the Syrian civil war by intervening in 2015, supporting President Bashar al-Assad against the opposition and Islamic State. “Isis-K has been fixated on Russia for the past two years, frequently criticising Putin in its propaganda,” said Colin Clarke of the Soufan Center, according to Reuters.

If the US pulls out of NATO then any route is on the table, eventually. However, Putin won't invade anywhere until he's swallowed up Ukraine and rebuilt his army. Moldova would be the easiest target (and no tangling with whatever remained of NATO), then a Baltic state. Finland has a very large army, if lacking in equipment. Poland is already arming itself to the teeth and might have the most capable army in Western Europe in a few years. Given how badly things went against Ukraine which was hardly a modern fighting force, taking on either Poland or Finland on it's own would be a considerable challenge for Russia. And that doesn't allow for the intervention of the rest of Western Europe, which is very unlikely to sit by and watch another large country go the way of Ukraine. The obvious and easy thing for Putin to do would be to not repeat the mistake of Ukraine, and just stick to destabilising democracies. It's not like there's a shortage of politicians who'd rather take his money than defend democracy.

Each one of those planes costs over $300 million, and before the war the Russians had a total of six that were operational. The Ukrainians have now shot down two in the last month. Clearly they've found a way to target them, so you'd have to think the Russians won't be flying them anywhere near Ukraine until they figure out how the Ukrainians are doing it.

Russia arrests US dual national over alleged $51 Ukrainian charity donation | Russia | The Guardian The White House has said it is seeking information after Russia announced it had arrested a dual US-Russian citizen on treason charges, accusing her of collecting funds for Ukrainian organisations and openly opposing the Russian war in Ukraine. A Russian legal NGO said the woman, named by Russian media as Ksenia Khavana, may stand accused of transferring $51 (£40) to a Ukrainian charity in February 2022, on the day Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of the country. She faces up to 20 years in prison.

Technically we agreed to protect their 1994 borders (amongst other things), which would of course include Crimea, in exchange for them handing over all the nukes they had. The lesson everyone will take from this is never hand over your nukes, and that's going to make the world a much more dangerous place for all of us. Budapest Memorandum - Wikipedia "According to the three memoranda, Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and effectively removing all Soviet nuclear weapons from their soil, and that they agreed to the following: 1. Respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders (in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act). 2. Refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of the signatories to the memorandum, and undertake that none of their weapons will ever be used against these countries, except in cases of self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations. (etc.)"

The consequences of all these months of blocking support for Ukraine. Never thought I'd see the day when a major US political party effectively backed an avowed foe of the United States in his invasion of a democracy we'd pledged to protect. Ukrainian forces withdraw from Avdiivka to avoid encirclement, army chief says | Ukraine | The Guardian Ukraine’s First Tank Brigade said during a visit on Thursday that their ability to strike the Russians had been cut dramatically since November. “Back then, we could fire every half hour, to stop them from relaxing and disrupt their movements, now we have to be very selective, and only fire for defence,” said their commander, who gave his call-sign, Titushko, in accordance with Ukrainian army regulations. “We cannot target only one vehicle, we only aim when we see a concentration of hardware,” he added. With the frontlines largely static in recent months, the capture of Avdiivka would mark Russia’s first major gain since taking Bakhmut last May.

I wonder how many of these drones you could make for the cost of one aircraft carrier?

Equipment losses in Russia’s war on Ukraine mount (iiss.org) The IISS will publish its assessment of Russian equipment losses on 13 February with the release of The Military Balance 2024. The losses are estimated to include more than 3,000 armoured fighting vehicles in the past year alone and close to 8,800 since February 2022. ...Overall, we estimate that two years after the full-scale invasion, the number of MBTs in service in the Ukrainian armed forces remains near pre-war levels, while the number of APCs and IFVs has increased thanks to Western support. However, Ukrainian efforts to field additional combat elements have outpaced equipment supply, leaving some units lacking equipment to be even close to full strength. ...Despite losing hundreds of armoured vehicles and artillery pieces per month on average, Russia has been able to keep its active inventory numbers stable. For 2023, we estimate that Russia was able to reactivate at least 1,180 to 1,280 MBTs and around 2,470 IFVs and APCs from storage. On top of that, Moscow was able to manufacture new tanks and other armoured vehicles, though precise numbers are difficult to glean even from satellite images. It is our assessment, therefore, that Russia will be able to sustain its assault on Ukraine at current attrition rates for another 2–3 years, and maybe even longer. (in terms of quality, the Ukrainians have much improved their equipment, while the Russians are often fielding refurbished vehicles from decades ago. But as the document notes, they have no shortage of old tanks and vehicles, and an old tank is better than no tank)

Maybe Zelenskiy's first real misstep since the invasion Volodymyr Zelenskiy fires top Ukraine army commander | Ukraine | The Guardian Volodymyr Zelenskiy has fired his top army commander, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, in Ukraine’s biggest military shake-up since Russia’s full-scale invasion nearly two years ago... In an eight-minute video explaining the decision, Zelenskiy denied any political motivation, and said the difficult situation that Ukrainian troops are facing at the front required a new approach... Tension between Zelenskiy and his top commander has been increasing for months, according to insiders. Zaluzhnyi rarely made public statements or gave interviews, but when he did it often irritated the president’s office. Zaluzhnyi was highly regarded among troops on the frontline, with a reputation for bravery, modesty and good humour, and also became a cult figure in Ukrainian society more broadly.

Lets look to thee future and hire ChatGPT

After going off at 4:30 and 5:30, the batteries on our alarm finally wore out