2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, SemperFi Skins said:

 

Howell isn't under the radar at all and could very well still be the 1st QB off the board. I'm sure many are like me in the fact that I wouldn't touch Willis, and Corral is a much higher risk

I'm very close to you.

 

I wouldn't say I wouldn't touch Willis on some other teams... I'm pretty close to that for WFT though.

 

I also wouldn't say Corral is a much higher risk. But I do think he's a bigger risk than Howell. Which could pay large dividends. Or it could be an issue.

 

I think Howell is a gamer and mentally tough. He has the tools you want. He's been good for years. His sample size is there. Runs a more pro ready system than some of these other guys (and that should not be ignored). I think he has what it would take to succeed in Washington. I also think he may require a significant trade up that we may not be able to make. Detroit is likely picking between Corral and Howell. 

 

I don't mind Pickett. But his sample size of positive play is smaller than Howell.

[NewCliche21]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

I'm very close to you.

 

I wouldn't say I wouldn't touch Willis on some other teams... I'm pretty close to that for WFT though.

 

I also wouldn't say Corral is a much higher risk. But I do think he's a bigger risk than Howell. Which could pay large dividends. Or it could be an issue.

 

I think Howell is a gamer and mentally tough. He has the tools you want. He's been good for years. His sample size is there. Runs a more pro ready system than some of these other guys (and that should not be ignored). I think he has what it would take to succeed in Washington. I also think he may require a significant trade up that we may not be able to make. Detroit is likely picking between Corral and Howell. 

 

I don't mind Pickett. But his sample size of positive play is smaller than Howell.

 

I'm genuinely curious, do you feel it would be settling to take the BPA of these QB's this year instead of where this year's class would be stronger?  I don't know S about F for college football, but it seems like (just go with me here for argument's sake) this year's QB class is a C.  Let's say the LB's are at an A.

Do we take the second-best QB this year instead of a linebacker in that scenario?  Obviously QB is our greatest need by lightyears, but if it's not *THE* guy, then why invest a first-rounder there when there could be *THE* guy at another position?

I have no opinion either way, just looking for an educated viewpoint.

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, NewCliche21 said:

 

I'm genuinely curious, do you feel it would be settling to take the BPA of these QB's this year instead of where this year's class would be stronger?  I don't know S about F for college football, but it seems like (just go with me here for argument's sake) this year's QB class is a C.  Let's say the LB's are at an A.

Do we take the second-best QB this year instead of a linebacker in that scenario?  Obviously QB is our greatest need by lightyears, but if it's not *THE* guy, then why invest a first-rounder there when there could be *THE* guy at another position?

I have no opinion either way, just looking for an educated viewpoint.

 

To me it depends on who is there and who the team likes and where we are and what we do.

 

So there's a ton of factors.

 

If we're picking third and Howell is there I don't hesitate.

 

If we're picking third and Corral is there I don't hesitate.

 

If we're picking third and Willis is there and someone wants to trade up and give a few firsts... I trade the pick.

 

If Pickett slides to mid first and we can get him for fairly cheap, trade up and get him. 

 

If Armstrong is there in the 3rd I may pull the trigger if we didn't earlier (which doesn't stop you from drafting a guy in the first next year).

 

There's layers to the argument that won't be clear until we get further along in the process.

[NewCliche21]

@KDawg Thanks, that helps from a more nuanced position.

I just wonder about going through what the Lions went through at WR.  I mean they had quite a few first-round whiffs before landing Calvin Johnson.  I don't want us to ignore a QB who falls into our lap next year or the year after while we're trying to get the guy we take in '22 up to speed.  I know that the next best thing is always around the corner, but this is such an unswappable position that I'd rather wait and make the right decision than rush and make the wrong one.  Except there's no way to know if it's the right or wrong one.

I could never be a GM.

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, NewCliche21 said:

@KDawg Thanks, that helps from a more nuanced position.

I just wonder about going through what the Lions went through at WR.  I mean they had quite a few first-round whiffs before landing Calvin Johnson.  I don't want us to ignore a QB who falls into our lap next year or the year after while we're trying to get the guy we take in '22 up to speed.  I know that the next best thing is always around the corner, but this is such an unswappable position that I'd rather wait and make the right decision than rush and make the wrong one.  Except there's no way to know if it's the right or wrong one.

I could never be a GM.

 

Rule of thumb: Draft the best player on your board for your TEAM.

 

Which is generally some weighted formula to determine BPA that balances positional need and player skill.

 

Just saying: "Draft the best overall player" is easy. But then you wind up in the situation you describe. But if you have all the players weighted for what you feel your franchise needs TO WIN (if you have a corner who is playing okay but your LG is steaming garbage and stopping you from winning, you assign Guards a higher weight. If the corner wins out anyways you draft him because he's probably special).

[NewCliche21]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

 

Rule of thumb: Draft the best player on your board for your TEAM.

 

Which is generally some weighted formula to determine BPA that balances positional need and player skill.

 

Just saying: "Draft the best overall player" is easy. But then you wind up in the situation you describe. But if you have all the players weighted for what you feel your franchise needs TO WIN (if you have a corner who is playing okay but your LG is steaming garbage and stopping you from winning, you assign Guards a higher weight. If the corner wins out anyways you draft him because he's probably special).

 

See I brought this exact idea up a few years back and got some pretty heavy pushback (not from you or @stevemcqueen1 or others who tend to know what they're talking about from what I can remember), but they had exactly the BPA without nuance.  The argument used was drafting Landry when we had Sean, how that was always the best thing to do.  Got an elite safety?  What about TWO elite safeties?!  It made sense there, but in 2006 our defense was crap and we completely whiffed on Archuletta, so there was still a need.

I would never see the point of having let's say Derrick Henry and then the BPA at your draft spot even if it's another running back.  Some people, though, go by Johnson's draft value chart and BPA like it's the effing Bible.

[Wildbunny]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

His sample size is there. Runs a more pro ready system than some of these other guys (and that should not be ignored).

That's something I read quite often when it comes to draft.

 

And since I'm not following college football at all, I'm still having a hard time understanding this (and I'm serious here!). How can college system be so different than pro game. From what I got, College are more pass happy then NFL, but that's also what the NFL is becoming nowadays...

 

So... I'm lost and don't really get it.

 

If someone could help explaining it, that would be awesome. (Though, maybe not in this thread)

[KDawg]

14 minutes ago, Wildbunny said:

That's something I read quite often when it comes to draft.

 

And since I'm not following college football at all, I'm still having a hard time understanding this (and I'm serious here!). How can college system be so different than pro game. From what I got, College are more pass happy then NFL, but that's also what the NFL is becoming nowadays...

 

So... I'm lost and don't really get it.

 

If someone could help explaining it, that would be awesome. (Though, maybe not in this thread)

 

In short...

 

College offenses run more "gimmicky" things. More option looks, more called QB runs, more WR screens.

 

There are teams who run more "pro style" stuff. Precision passing attacks where the QB is reading the field and getting the ball to vacated places on the field based on pre snap reads.

 

College offenses often have  very few reads. Athletic QBs like Willis tend to have less reads and more read and go systems. In the pros that's going to get players hurt, so they have to learn to read the field while still using aspects that made them successful in college. Defenses are also even more complicated in the pros. And, quite frankly, everyone in the NFL is a professional. In college there are a lot more "fish" on the field. a decent college player is a really bad pro most of the time. 

 

There are a lot of quirky differences that I could break down more when I have the time. But a lot of it is progressions and reads. 

[The Rook]

6 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

To me it depends on who is there and who the team likes and where we are and what we do.

 

So there's a ton of factors.

 

If we're picking third and Howell is there I don't hesitate.

 

If we're picking third and Corral is there I don't hesitate.

 

If we're picking third and Willis is there and someone wants to trade up and give a few firsts... I trade the pick.

 

If Pickett slides to mid first and we can get him for fairly cheap, trade up and get him. 

 

If Armstrong is there in the 3rd I may pull the trigger if we didn't earlier (which doesn't stop you from drafting a guy in the first next year).

 

There's layers to the argument that won't be clear until we get further along in the process.

 

I'm an Armstrong fan; kid can sling the rock.  Of course, he may just be the second coming of Colt Brennan.

UVA Coach Bronco Mendenhall stated on a Coach's show he expects Armstrong to be playing in the UVA-Notre Dame game this weekend - pretty optimistic if he is overcoming broken ribs.  It will be a real shame if he can't play in the prime time game on Saturday night.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

[DWinzit]

19 hours ago, NewCliche21 said:

@KDawg Thanks, that helps from a more nuanced position.

I just wonder about going through what the Lions went through at WR.  I mean they had quite a few first-round whiffs before landing Calvin Johnson.  I don't want us to ignore a QB who falls into our lap next year or the year after while we're trying to get the guy we take in '22 up to speed.  I know that the next best thing is always around the corner, but this is such an unswappable position that I'd rather wait and make the right decision than rush and make the wrong one.  Except there's no way to know if it's the right or wrong one.

I could never be a GM.

Sure is hard comparing  the Matt Millen era in Detroit with any other GM. Pretty sure he is the worst GM ever. I was thinking they took a WR in the first round three years in a row. I was wrong, it was 4 times in 6 years at selection 2 ,7 ,10, 2.  Its crazy after the first 3 that they would be staring at Megatron. 

 

I sure hope they really like one guy this year and he falls into their lap, kind of like what happened with the Pats last year. No need to move up to grab them. Feeling they will crush on one or two QB's in the draft. I just hope the crush isn't out of desperation and just focusing on need

 

If it ends out being Howell, maybe he can remind Dyami Brown how to be productive on the field for a change 

[method man]

22 hours ago, SemperFi Skins said:

 

Howell isn't under the radar at all and could very well still be the 1st QB off the board. I'm sure many are like me in the fact that I wouldn't touch Willis, and Corral is a much higher risk

Howell’s draft stock is recovering after a rough start but I am still not seeing him in the top 10 in mocks (not that draftniks words really matter). Like many, however, I expect his stock to rise into the top 10 by draft day

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, DWinzit said:

Sure is hard comparing  the Matt Millen era in Detroit with any other GM. Pretty sure he is the worst GM ever. I was thinking they took a WR in the first round three years in a row. I was wrong, it was 4 times in 6 years at selection 2 ,7 ,10, 2.  Its crazy after the first 3 that they would be staring at Megatron. 

 

I sure hope they really like one guy this year and he falls into their lap, kind of like what happened with the Pats last year. No need to move up to grab them. Feeling they will crush on one or two QB's in the draft. I just hope the crush isn't out of desperation and just focusing on need

 

If it ends out being Howell, maybe he can remind Dyami Brown how to be productive on the field for a change 

I think we are being a bit harsh on Dyami. He’s a rookie. Rookie receivers don’t typically show out in year one unless they are a legitimate top end elite talent. Brown wasn’t going to be that. But he can be an awesome receiver.

 

But he has to show it a little next season. Would be nice to see it towards the back end this year.

[evmiii]

I am not a professional scout and I didn’t spend last night in a Holiday Inn, but based on my untrained eyes I think Matt Corral has got the “it” that everyone talks about.  He might not be the absolute best at anything, but he’s pretty darn good at everything.  He has a strong arm and can make all the throws, he is a very good athlete and moves around very well, unlike previous WFT 1st round picks he knows how to slide, he reads defenses and gets through progressions in a Lane Kiffen pro set offense.  He is clearly the leader of the team and the guys rally around him.  I think when it is all said and done he will be the first QB off the board and I truly hope he goes to the WFT. 

[CRobi21]

Will Rogers torching Auburn in the second half..

 

Wouldn't mind a couple of his OL either. He has all day to throw.

[Skinsinparadise]

I've been fishing deeper in the QB class albeit I want them of course to take one in the first.  These guys are probably backup types. 

 

Bailey Zappe:  I am watching him for the third time, right now on ESPN plus.  He's a hard evaluation.  He's put up monster numbers.   He plays against easy teams competiton way.  Shot gun QB.  He just gets the ball and often doesn't even bother with 3-5 steps, etc.  He often just plants and throws -- Carson Strong does the same quite a bit. 

 

His accuracy though seems good, albeit not perfect.  Decent arm strength.   Nice touch on his throws.   Can make the difficult deep out routes.  Western Kentucky throws like mad.  It seems so effortless pitch and catch that i don't really know what to make of it.  He's supposedly going to the Senior Bowl so i'll just dig deeper then.

 

 

 

 

 

I just watched one game of, Jack Haener, but he intrigues me maybe more than Zappe.  What got my attention is reading someone calling him a rich man's Heinicke.  lol, yeah he does play stylistically like Taylor.   He plays fast.  Quick release.  Escapes the pocket well and makes off platform throws.    Moxie.  Zappe looks like he has some moxie to him as well. 

 

 

 

4 hours ago, evmiii said:

I am not a professional scout and I didn’t spend last night in a Holiday Inn, but based on my untrained eyes I think Matt Corral has got the “it” that everyone talks about.  He might not be the absolute best at anything, but he’s pretty darn good at everything.  He has a strong arm and can make all the throws, he is a very good athlete and moves around very well, unlike previous WFT 1st round picks he knows how to slide, he reads defenses and gets through progressions in a Lane Kiffen pro set offense.  He is clearly the leader of the team and the guys rally around him.  I think when it is all said and done he will be the first QB off the board and I truly hope he goes to the WFT. 

 

I am a Corral guy in a big way for reasons I've said many times on this thread.  But I admit I don't know for sure that he will be the top QB going in the draft.  Some have him there.  Some don't.  Personally I hope he doesn't go as the top QB, if that happens we aren't getting him. 

[method man]

6 hours ago, KDawg said:

I think we are being a bit harsh on Dyami. He’s a rookie. Rookie receivers don’t typically show out in year one unless they are a legitimate top end elite talent. Brown wasn’t going to be that. But he can be an awesome receiver.

 

But he has to show it a little next season. Would be nice to see it towards the back end this year.

 

You are right that they don't show out but you at least want to see something and we haven't seen much from Dyami. If we take a look a the 2nd round receivers drafted in 2020 as an example, you have:

 

Higgins

Pittman Jr.

Shenault

Hamler 

Claypool

Mims

Jefferson

Edwards 

Duvernay

 

The guys who played well their first seasons are the guys who are playing well year 2. Guys like Edwards, Mims, Duvernay and Hamler who disappointed in year 1 continue to disappoint in year 2. (Yes Hamler is hurt but he wasn't good before his injury)

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

1 minute ago, method man said:

 

You are right that they don't show out but you at least want to see something and we haven't seen much from Dyami. If we take a look a the 2nd round receivers drafted in 2020.

Not exactly a fair comp, Dyami was drafted in the 4th. But I do get and agree with your overall point. Our draft class has been uninspiring at best. Hope Dyami can start making some plays. 
 

I’ve been on the Howell wagon since last year. Hopeful that he’s there when we pick. I have my doubts.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

57 minutes ago, method man said:

 

You are right that they don't show out but you at least want to see something and we haven't seen much from Dyami. If we take a look a the 2nd round receivers drafted in 2020 as an example, you have:

 

Higgins

Pittman Jr.

Shenault

Hamler 

Claypool

Mims

Jefferson

Edwards 

Duvernay

 

The guys who played well their first seasons are the guys who are playing well year 2. Guys like Edwards, Mims, Duvernay and Hamler who disappointed in year 1 continue to disappoint in year 2. (Yes Hamler is hurt but he wasn't good before his injury)

 

Add Shenault.  Jags have tried to move him around and do things, but supposedly he can't lineup outside. He's got no separation skills.  So he's a slot/TE/Hback only.

[clskinsfan]

Who knew Stetson Bennett could actually throw the football? Nice drive there from him. 

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

The freshman QB, Van Dyke at Miami looks like a future prospect to me. Kind of a plodder but just looks the part.

[method man]

2 hours ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Not exactly a fair comp, Dyami was drafted in the 4th. But I do get and agree with your overall point. Our draft class has been uninspiring at best. Hope Dyami can start making some plays. 
 

I’ve been on the Howell wagon since last year. Hopeful that he’s there when we pick. I have my doubts.

 

Dyami was a 3rd rounder who the fanbase was excited about because most of the media had given him a 2nd round grade

[KDawg]

Again, Dyami is a rookie. We need to understand patience. If he struggles and shows no signs of improvement through the rest of this season and next it’s probably fair to pile on.

 

We need to break this trend of believing the rookies need to come in and be excellent day one. Development is very often necessary.

[Skinsinparadise]

Corral thus far looks sharp as usual. Running so far a hurry up offense. Overthrew a deep ball but showed off arm talent doing it.

 

The dude has such a quick release. Doesn’t really have hot weapons and is playing on a bum ankle so he doesn’t have his typical mobility.

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

1 hour ago, method man said:

 

Dyami was a 3rd rounder who the fanbase was excited about because most of the media had given him a 2nd round grade

So we were both wrong. 😆

[Thinking Skins]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I've been fishing deeper in the QB class albeit I want them of course to take one in the first.  These guys are probably backup types. 

 

Bailey Zappe:  I am watching him for the third time, right now on ESPN plus.  He's a hard evaluation.  He's put up monster numbers.   He plays against easy teams competiton way.  Shot gun QB.  He just gets the ball and often doesn't even bother with 3-5 steps, etc.  He often just plants and throws -- Carson Strong does the same quite a bit. 

 

His accuracy though seems good, albeit not perfect.  Decent arm strength.   Nice touch on his throws.   Can make the difficult deep out routes.  Western Kentucky throws like mad.  It seems so effortless pitch and catch that i don't really know what to make of it.  He's supposedly going to the Senior Bowl so i'll just dig deeper then.

 

 

 

 

 

I just watched one game of, Jack Haener, but he intrigues me maybe more than Zappe.  What got my attention is reading someone calling him a rich man's Heinicke.  lol, yeah he does play stylistically like Taylor.   He plays fast.  Quick release.  Escapes the pocket well and makes off platform throws.    Moxie.  Zappe looks like he has some moxie to him as well. 

 

 

 

 

I am a Corral guy in a big way for reasons I've said many times on this thread.  But I admit I don't know for sure that he will be the top QB going in the draft.  Some have him there.  Some don't.  Personally I hope he doesn't go as the top QB, if that happens we aren't getting him. 

Thank you for that post. I like hearing about lower round guys who are impressive.