2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

 

A couple of points I wanted to make in response to various arguments SIP has made:

 

- Chudzinski was a key part of designing Cams offense and rapidly developing him as a passer.  He's the piece of the equation we're missing as well.  I think our current OC is weaker and I'm kind of surprised you guys that are hoping for a young prospect don't feel more angst about Turner and more urgency about upgrading the OC position.

 

 

As for Turner, you are by far his loudest critic here.  But I notice some smart people, NFL people, really like him.  I don't really have a strong take positive or negative on him.  Zampese is considered by some as one of the top QB coaches in the league.  For me to dive in to Scot, I need to do it in the off season, and cut clips to see who is open or not open -- try to gauge play design.  it's tough for me to do that on the fly. 

 

I do notice like his dad and the typical coordinator he uses some plays to set up others.  I've sometimes called it on the game thread, this pattern is to set up that.  That's hard to miss.  As for the analytics of his play calling, I know guys like Warren Sharp and Evan Silva love him on that front. They hated Jay. 

 

It's not that I or some others ignore your calling Turner being really bad as his job, i factor that in the soup, but you got some who see it opposite of you.  I have to spend time to figure it out for myself.  Maybe I'll reach the same conclusion as you, I don't know.  But i need to spend time on it, tough for me to tell on the fly. 

 

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

In a case like Haskins, his personality outright clashed with Rivera's and it was like they didn't even speak the same language.  This is another reason why it is absolutely essential to wed the fate of your entire FO to the QB prospect.

 

 

In a case like Haskins, as volsmet pointed out on the thread with a lot of detail his accuracy wasn't hot.  His footwork wasn't hot.  I talked about it myself in the draft thread ultimately but he got there first.  The kicker was I went to training camp, and you could see all of that on display.  The dude struggled mightly with certain throws including what I thought were simple one likes quick out routes in the flat.  

 

Then you combine that with his immature personality that even Chase Young called out at the end.  And pile on that a narrative that he doesn't work hard where even his mentor Shawn Springs acceded that he can't put in the work for Haskins and implied needs to dedicate himself more.  

 

The problem with Haskins first and foremost is the owner overrode the GM-coach and scouting staff.  I can't recall you commenting on that whether that bothers you or it doesn't -- so I don't know your position.  Are you cool with it or don't think the owner should interfere like that?  For me I don't care if the owner agrees with me on the player, I am not overriding the scouting staff and coaches on a player.  You like to criticize Rivera for it, even though he didn't draft him but do you have any criticism for Dan?  I put it 100% on Dan. 

 

Haskins didn't fail here IMO because of a personality clash with Rivera.  He failed because of himself.  And if I need a scapegoat to prop him up -- then OK, I'll put it on Dan.  And if Haskins was obviously let down by all these things, just simple bad personal chemistry with Rivera and a supposed moron offensive coordinator -- you'd figure at least one organization would see it that way?  This dude wasn't even finished with his 2nd season and he cleared waivers where EVERY team could have claimed him and not one team did so. 

 

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

- Chudzinski was a key part of designing Cams offense and rapidly developing him as a passer. 

 

I know I talked about him at the time.  I was too lazy to look up his name but that's who I was referring to.  But after him Mike Shula was lauded for the same thing.  And yep Norv Turner too for adjusting his offense to Cam's talent.  I know you really really don't like Scot's play calling but I would gather Norv is part of that too.  Scott is basically using his father's scheme.  And in addition to that Ron revealed that Norv is hands on behind the scenes as to helping this offense including watching practices.

 

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

- I do believe franchise QBs are products of their situations, and I think there are plenty of guys who had the talent and make up to make it that fail for reasons of timing and bad luck.  In general, I think the prospects who make it all of the way into the first round pedigree are way more similar in talent and make up than they are different.  And most will succeed given the right conditions--which are monstrously difficult to create.

 

I think our main difference and its a big one is we both see a different main X factor.  And my X factor is not some quirky eccentric take that's unique to me.  It's the most common thing you hear from coaches who do these professionally.  But I'll answer this in a seperate post because it gets into my take on what is the key factor that seperates QBs  and it influences my take on these guys in the draft.

 

It's not that I disagree that a supporting cast and good coaching aren't factors.  Of course they are factors.  But there is a key X factor, even more important than those, that IMO that you ignore or dismiss or at least that how it seems to me in your posts, but if I am wrong on that please correct me.   But I'll hit it shortly in a seperate post. 

 

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

- I followed that Seattle camp battle with Russell Wilson somewhat closely.  Wilson was the hedge btw, Flynn was brought in with the full intention to replace Tarvaris Jackson and be the long term starter, and Wilson was supposed to be a long term project who maybe is your back up down the road.  But Wilson was so shockingly good in camp he won the job outright, and then this is the key point, Seattle dumped Flynn at their first chance to move him.  They cleared the deck for Wilson and went all in with him.  And then they supported Wilson in the classic tried and true formula of surrounding him with a dominant defense and run game and ultra reliable WRs who win right off the line of scrimmage until he was ready to spread his wings as a passer after like four years of training wheels offense.  This is the exact formula we should seek to replicate with our prospect.

 

Me, too.  I flat out said Flynn was the bet and Wilson was the hedge in my post.  But doesn't that point bring home hedging is fine?

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

I won't evaluate Turner until we get a legit QB in here. Even Lafleur's offense looks like crap without Rodgers.

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

- I do believe franchise QBs are products of their situations, and I think there are plenty of guys who had the talent and make up to make it that fail for reasons of timing and bad luck.  In general, I think the prospects who make it all of the way into the first round pedigree are way more similar in talent and make up than they are different.  And most will succeed given the right conditions--which are monstrously difficult to create. And all will fail given the wrong ones.  Injuries and organizational instability and lack of support are the big reasons many fail.  Plenty of guys get the rug pulled out from under them early in their careers and never get a real chance to sell the next FO on them.  In a case like Haskins, his personality outright clashed with Rivera's and it was like they didn't even speak the same language.  This is another reason why it is absolutely essential to wed the fate of your entire FO to the QB prospect.

 

No doubt a good supporting cast helps.  No doubt having a good offensive staff helps.  But its not case closed after that.   Or as for first round QBs, these guys are all pretty much the same or close enough and the difference is which team drafts them.  That point comes off to me as a way to state the point with mega emphasis that QBs tend to do better when they go to good teams.  Yes, of course they do, but there is so much more to the narrative IMO. 

 

Yes Joe Burrow would kill it more if he were drafted by a loaded team like the Saints versus a perpetual loser like Cincy.  But IMO don't underestimate Joe Burrow.  Eventually, he will show enough for teams to know he's the real deal.  To me you are pushing a plot line that isn't wrong but you are overstating it.   The main plotline IMO is the actual player. 

 

To me the meat of the meal is not every first rounder is alike talent wise and the kicker is they don't all have the same makeup.   There are big variances on both counts typically but usually at least one of those two variables seperate one player from the other. 

 

A. i don't believe that most first rounders are alike talent wise.  I'll start with its a cliche that teams overreach for QBs in the first round out of desperation.  Some guys don't deserve to be first rounders IMO.  And quite often its not that complex to see which first rounder or top two are above the pack.  

 

I watched Kyler Murray in person.   I studied him some.   To me he was night and day, shoulders above Haskins, Daniel Jones and Lock in that draft.    According to some beat guys that's how the WFT scouts saw it too.    I don't think it was that difficult to see.

 

Yeah sometimes you can miss and a QB who isn't as highly regarded ends up better or a big talent fails.   But that's a different narrative and often gets into my point B which I am about to make. 

 

The reason why i was so down on trading for Rosen and Darnold was i watched a bunch of their games both college and the pros and arrived at the conclusion that they were bad decision makers.  In the heat of the battle, they made dumb decision after another.  And if I can see that as a layperson, i can imagine scouts who know what they are doing versus me who is just having some fun and winging it.

 

When i watched Rosen and Darnold my thoughts weren't hey surround them with talent and all would be good.  They in my mind were too limited to be saved by a supporting cast.  I can care less that they have some talent.  Their flaws in my mind were too tough to overcome. 

 

 

B.  Heck I know its a movie, not real life but it helps bring my point home.  Rocky is a famous franchise not because who isn't Rocky?  We all are equally motivated.  We are all equally driven.  We are all equally determined.  We all have the same work ethic.  Rocky is famous because the character is unique not a dime a dozen.

 

All the coaches I have listened to or read talking about special QBs, almost all focus on personality and committment.  Heck Tom Brady in his 40s is showing up to work at 5 am and Dwayne Haskins trying to make his way into the NFL can't even show up to meetings on time let alone early.

 

You seem to dismiss this or put it on the coaches and if I am wrong on this please correct me.  IMO its not on the coaches.  Tom Brady's motivation isn't about Belichick one day telling him dude wake up you aren't working hard and gave him a speech that just stuck with him forever and transformed his personality.  I've read a bunch of books about Brady and the Pats.  Brady was self motivated he was not going to be denied.  Payton Manning, too. 

 

Jim Nagy was a scout who could talk X's and O's all day long -- yet when he talked about Mac Jones and Herbert, talked up their personalities and how special they were on that front.

 

I recall well that you didn't think much of Mac Jones.  Yet he's succeeding in NE with a team that arguably doesn't give him much of a supporting cast as to passing weapons.  Last year the "genuis" Belichick struggled with Cam.  Now he looks like a smart coach again.  Winston was a talented yet erratic QB in Tampa.  He's not done squat with the genius Sean Payton coaching him. 

 

I disagreed with you about Mac but heck lets say I went along with your thoughts about him.  Why is he successful?  Some of it clearly is about what kind of dude he is and how hard he works.  Nagy went on and on about how in Senior bowl practices, Jones was the one dude who was up past midnight just so he could be ready the next day and look sharp.  

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

Serious question, do any of these top QB prospects come from a military background? Say from the top 5 prospects?

[Skinsinparadise]

Corral, meanwhile, is rated as the No. 3 pro-style quarterback and the No. 32 player overall in the 2018 class by the 247 Sports Composite. In July, he committed to play at Florida.

His personal connection makes Tuesday’s honor that much more special.

“My brother (David) is in Syria right now, serving in the Marines,” Corral said. “Being able to give back to the military, to give back and do what I love, it’s a great deal. It makes you want to put on a show. And getting to do it while playing against the best of the best, to showcase your talent, it’s an honor.”

 

https://usatodayhss.com/2017/long-beach-poly-wr-jalen-hall-qb-matt-corral-receive-u-s-army-all-american-jerseys

[Skinsinparadise]

[CjSuAvE22]

I would love to draft Matt Corral...But im worried he goes to the lions or texans. 

[kingdaddy]

7 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

No doubt a good supporting cast helps.  No doubt having a good offensive staff helps.  But its not case closed after that.   Or as for first round QBs, these guys are all pretty much the same or close enough and the difference is which team drafts them.  That point comes off to me as a way to state the point with mega emphasis that QBs tend to do better when they go to good teams.  Yes, of course they do, but there is so much more to the narrative IMO. 

 

Yes Joe Burrow would kill it more if he were drafted by a loaded team like the Saints versus a perpetual loser like Cincy.  But IMO don't underestimate Joe Burrow.  Eventually, he will show enough for teams to know he's the real deal.  To me you are pushing a plot line that isn't wrong but you are overstating it.   The main plotline IMO is the actual player. 

 

To me the meat of the meal is not every first rounder is alike talent wise and the kicker is they don't all have the same makeup.   There are big variances on both counts typically but usually at least one of those two variables seperate one player from the other. 

 

A. i don't believe that most first rounders are alike talent wise.  I'll start with its a cliche that teams overreach for QBs in the first round out of desperation.  Some guys don't deserve to be first rounders IMO.  And quite often its not that complex to see which first rounder or top two are above the pack.  

 

I watched Kyler Murray in person.   I studied him some.   To me he was night and day, shoulders above Haskins, Daniel Jones and Lock in that draft.    According to some beat guys that's how the WFT scouts saw it too.    I don't think it was that difficult to see.

 

Yeah sometimes you can miss and a QB who isn't as highly regarded ends up better or a big talent fails.   But that's a different narrative and often gets into my point B which I am about to make. 

 

The reason why i was so down on trading for Rosen and Darnold was i watched a bunch of their games both college and the pros and arrived at the conclusion that they were bad decision makers.  In the heat of the battle, they made dumb decision after another.  And if I can see that as a layperson, i can imagine scouts who know what they are doing versus me who is just having some fun and winging it.

 

When i watched Rosen and Darnold my thoughts weren't hey surround them with talent and all would be good.  They in my mind were too limited to be saved by a supporting cast.  I can care less that they have some talent.  Their flaws in my mind were too tough to overcome. 

 

 

B.  Heck I know its a movie, not real life but it helps bring my point home.  Rocky is a famous franchise not because who isn't Rocky?  We all are equally motivated.  We are all equally driven.  We are all equally determined.  We all have the same work ethic.  Rocky is famous because the character is unique not a dime a dozen.

 

All the coaches I have listened to or read talking about special QBs, almost all focus on personality and committment.  Heck Tom Brady in his 40s is showing up to work at 5 am and Dwayne Haskins trying to make his way into the NFL can't even show up to meetings on time let alone early.

 

You seem to dismiss this or put it on the coaches and if I am wrong on this please correct me.  IMO its not on the coaches.  Tom Brady's motivation isn't about Belichick one day telling him dude wake up you aren't working hard and gave him a speech that just stuck with him forever and transformed his personality.  I've read a bunch of books about Brady and the Pats.  Brady was self motivated he was not going to be denied.  Payton Manning, too. 

 

Jim Nagy was a scout who could talk X's and O's all day long -- yet when he talked about Mac Jones and Herbert, talked up their personalities and how special they were on that front.

 

I recall well that you didn't think much of Mac Jones.  Yet he's succeeding in NE with a team that arguably doesn't give him much of a supporting cast as to passing weapons.  Last year the "genuis" Belichick struggled with Cam.  Now he looks like a smart coach again.  Winston was a talented yet erratic QB in Tampa.  He's not done squat with the genius Sean Payton coaching him. 

 

I disagreed with you about Mac but heck lets say I went along with your thoughts about him.  Why is he successful?  Some of it clearly is about what kind of dude he is and how hard he works.  Nagy went on and on about how in Senior bowl practices, Jones was the one dude who was up past midnight just so he could be ready the next day and look sharp.  

 

Belicheck is prone to down years as all coaches are....even Nick Saban doesn't win every year and he gets the cream of the crop. Other teams have good coaches too. I would argue that Belicheck is doing one of his greatest coaching jobs this season because of his game planning and managing the growth of Mac Jones the same as he did with Tom Brady. Newton was an entirely different challenge.

Credit to the Patriots for spending big in the offseason while committing to a very good defense and solid running game. I also think Belicheck has good assistants, he always seems to. McDaniels would be interesting to see here in Washington as to what he would do with our offense. While Mac Jones is helping, his numbers are very average but he hasn't had to be great. The Patriots are scoring on defense and they have run the ball very well. It's the exact formula I thought we'd be using this year while hoping Fitz/TH would be good enough to make enough plays when needed. 

When we do draft a rookie QB and throw him to the wolves, I hope we emulate what BB is doing in New England and focus on being a physical team that doesn't expect the kid to come in and do it by himself with his arm/legs. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, kingdaddy said:

Belicheck is prone to down years as all coaches are....even Nick Saban doesn't win every year and he gets the cream of the crop. Other teams have good coaches too. I would argue that Belicheck is doing one of his greatest coaching jobs this season because of his game planning and managing the growth of Mac Jones the same as he did with Tom Brady. Newton was an entirely different challenge.

Credit to the Patriots for spending big in the offseason while committing to a very good defense and solid running game. I also think Belicheck has good assistants, he always seems to. McDaniels would be interesting to see here in Washington as to what he would do with our offense. While Mac Jones is helping, his numbers are very average but he hasn't had to be great. The Patriots are scoring on defense and they have run the ball very well. It's the exact formula I thought we'd be using this year while hoping Fitz/TH would be good enough to make enough plays when needed. 

When we do draft a rookie QB and throw him to the wolves, I hope we emulate what BB is doing in New England and focus on being a physical team that doesn't expect the kid to come in and do it by himself with his arm/legs. 

 

NE  is not exactly loaded on offense especially with their injuries.  They are 19th in the league as for rushing yards per game.   Pedestrian.  17th in DVOA as for their run game.   Now last year they were great and were third, Cam was part of that reason.   

 

Arguably the Pats do not even have a true #1 receiver.  Who is PFF's highest grade on the Pats offense?  A RT.  After him, Mac Jones.    Mac clearly isn't an elite QB but he's been a competent QB from the jump.  And my point was he was both pro ready and he had the intangibles to be successful.    A good supporting cast helps but NE doesn't have a killer supporting cast on offense.   Nelson Agholor who is their top WR arguably would be a #3 on some teams.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 10, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Renegade7]

6 hours ago, CjSuAvE22 said:

I would love to draft Matt Corral...But im worried he goes to the lions or texans. 

 

I'm not against trading up for him if folks can convince me he's worth it.  

[88Comrade2000]

3 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

Belicheck is prone to down years as all coaches are....even Nick Saban doesn't win every year and he gets the cream of the crop. Other teams have good coaches too. I would argue that Belicheck is doing one of his greatest coaching jobs this season because of his game planning and managing the growth of Mac Jones the same as he did with Tom Brady. Newton was an entirely different challenge.

Credit to the Patriots for spending big in the offseason while committing to a very good defense and solid running game. I also think Belicheck has good assistants, he always seems to. McDaniels would be interesting to see here in Washington as to what he would do with our offense. While Mac Jones is helping, his numbers are very average but he hasn't had to be great. The Patriots are scoring on defense and they have run the ball very well. It's the exact formula I thought we'd be using this year while hoping Fitz/TH would be good enough to make enough plays when needed. 

When we do draft a rookie QB and throw him to the wolves, I hope we emulate what BB is doing in New England and focus on being a physical team that doesn't expect the kid to come in and do it by himself with his arm/legs. 

This is WAshington where qbs come to die.  We will draft the next bust at qb. Washington is incapable of drafting a franchise qb.

[CjSuAvE22]

11 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

This is WAshington where qbs come to die.  We will draft the next bust at qb. Washington is incapable of drafting a franchise qb.

So do we just give up? what's the plan here....pretend that we don't are anymore?? Have hope my friend even a little can help. 

[KDawg]

9 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

I'm not against trading up for him if folks can convince me he's worth it.  

If Detroit has the first pick we’re probably not going to be able to trade up for him. He likely goes #1.  Though Malik Willis has that physical skill set at QB that makes GMs and scout types excited and has owners salivating at ticket sales. I’ve seen that movie go both ways. But wouldn’t be surprised if someone reached for him (yes, I said reach. I think he is a great prospect but raw. Drafting him 1 overall essentially guarantees he is going to play right off the bat. That is a reach at that point in the draft. I’m NOT saying he’s a reach from a skill set standpoint).

 

I think 5-15 is the range for Willis. 
 

He’ll likely go higher and can see Detroit see $$ if they have the chance to take him.

[mistertim]

9 hours ago, CjSuAvE22 said:

So do we just give up? what's the plan here....pretend that we don't are anymore?? Have hope my friend even a little can help. 

 

He doesn't have a solution. He's just ****ing.

[Going Commando]

22 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

No doubt a good supporting cast helps.  No doubt having a good offensive staff helps.  But its not case closed after that.   Or as for first round QBs, these guys are all pretty much the same or close enough and the difference is which team drafts them.  That point comes off to me as a way to state the point with mega emphasis that QBs tend to do better when they go to good teams.  Yes, of course they do, but there is so much more to the narrative IMO. 

 

Yes Joe Burrow would kill it more if he were drafted by a loaded team like the Saints versus a perpetual loser like Cincy.  But IMO don't underestimate Joe Burrow.  Eventually, he will show enough for teams to know he's the real deal.  To me you are pushing a plot line that isn't wrong but you are overstating it.   The main plotline IMO is the actual player. 

 

To me the meat of the meal is not every first rounder is alike talent wise and the kicker is they don't all have the same makeup.   There are big variances on both counts typically but usually at least one of those two variables seperate one player from the other. 

 

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on this because I simply think you are wrong in assuming that there is a significant difference in the personalities and intangible make up of the QB prospects who are good enough to make it into the first round of a draft, and that these specific differences are the most deterministic factor in their eventual career outcomes.  Let's look at the outcomes with Mac Jones and Joe Burrow--guys who are on track for NFL success vis a vis Dwayne Haskins and Tua Tagavailoa--guys who failed or on track for failure with their draft teams.  How is it that Burrow and Jones were beat out by Haskins and Tagavailoa when they were on the same rosters, receiving the exact same support, when presumably have far superior intangibles?  Haskins came in a year after Burrow, how was he able to beat him out for the starting job, be immediately successful and force Burrow to transfer if he's a lazy piece of crap who wouldn't put in the work to be successful?  Why is it that in 2019, each on loaded blue blood teams, the production and success of Haskins, Murray, and Tagavailoa were almost identical?  How were Haskins and Tua presumably able to overcome their talent and work ethic defficiencies in order to match Murray's level of success?

 

How is it an indictment of Josh Rosen's work ethic and character that his coach got fired and the new one who came in had been burning a candle for Kyler Murray since 2013?  Kingsbury had made the decision to move on from Rosen and draft Kyler Murray in the winter, long before Rosen would have ever had a chance to sell himself to the new regime.  Guys have their careers flushed for reasons entirely outside of their control all of the time, and no amount of grit or hard work is going to change that.  The NFL business is about personal relationships as much as it is about anything else.  Getting an NFL FO to marry themselves to you is the major deterministic factor in career outcomes, and that's about soooo much more than work ethic.

 

Also, I've seen you use the fact that Haskins wasn't claimed on waivers after he was cut to justify a belief that nobody wanted him.  Guys go unclaimed on waivers for a multitude of reasons, and in any case, that's the outcome that the players actually want.  Haskins did sign with another team immediately after he passed through waivers, and it seems that he's forged a pretty good relationship with that coaching staff and found a new home there.  But he'll be lucky to ever get a real chance to start again because that almost never comes for QB prospects who don't end up in a successful marriage with the coaching staff and FO regime that drafts them.

 

And that's really the key to success or failure.  The successful marriage of regime to QB prospect.  It happened for Kingsbury and Murray, Allen and McDermott, it happened for Burrow and Taylor, it's happening for Jones and Belichick.  It did not happen for Haskins and Gruden/Rivera.  It did not happen for Tua and Flores.  It did not happen for Darnold and Bowles/Gase.  The failures of these marriages happen for a ton of reasons, and a common one is not the quality of the prospect, but the contemporary stability of the regime.  When I see you guys talking about hedging bets at QB and bringing in multiple viable paths to take this offseason, it makes me think that you guys don't grasp how important this marriage is.  It's pretty much the entire game of team building.

 

You asked what I think of Snyder's level of responsibility for the failure of Haskins--I think it's significant, but I would not frame it the way you did.  You framed it taking for granted that Haskins was massively overdrafted and ended up being the choice here because of a croneyistic relationship with Snyder.  I think that's wrong.  I also think that decisions about the long term direction at QB are ownership level for pretty much every NFL team.  Coaches or GMs are supposed to generate a plan at QB, but they still necessarily give owners a voice in outcome.  We did need a long term direction at QB in 2019.  The problem for us is that absolutely nobody who should have been doing so generated a plan at QB, and it was left to the owner to do it.  I've heard a lot of innuendo about how Gruden and Kyle Smith strenuously objected to bringing in Haskins, but I've never actually heard what their QB plan was.  So what was it?  That was rhetorical, I know they didn't have a viable alternative, and having no plan is the worst possible plan.  Dan's huge mistake was in leaving a massive leadership void in the franchise where no one was effectively at the wheel, in not cleaning house before the 2019 offseason began.  It's a huge issue that hopefully was resolved by the hiring of Rivera and Wright and Hurney/Mayhew.

 

And let's learn from past mistakes and recognize that giving a coaching staff third and fourth shots at QB is ****ing absurd, and that this next direction Rivera chooses at the position needs to be it for him and Mayhew/Hurney.  No more drafting QB prospects into lame duck regimes.  No more hedging and waffling on our plan at Q.  Pick one direction and see it through and figure out how to make it work or get fired.  That needs to be the FO's mandate this offseason.

Edited November 10, 2021 by stevemcqueen1

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on this because I simply think you are wrong in assuming that there is a significant difference in the personalities and intangible make up of the QB prospects who are good enough to make it into the first round of a draft, and that these specific differences are the most deterministic factor in their eventual career outcomes.  Let's look at the outcomes with Mac Jones and Joe Burrow--guys who are on track for NFL success vis a vis Dwayne Haskins and Tua Tagavailoa--guys who failed or on track for failure with their draft teams.  How is it that Burrow and Jones were beat out by Haskins and Tagavailoa when they were on the same rosters, receiving the exact same support, when presumably have far superior intangibles?  Haskins came in a year after Burrow, how was he able to beat him out for the starting job, be immediately successful and force Burrow to transfer if he's a lazy piece of crap who wouldn't put in the work to be successful?  Why is it that in 2019, each on loaded blue blood teams, the production and success of Haskins, Murray, and Tagavailoa were almost identical?  How were Haskins and Tua presumably able to overcome their talent and work ethic defficiencies in order to match Murray's level of success?

 

 

How can a college QB beat another college QB versus the pros?  As you know, it's a different game.   Kellen Moore was a killer college QB.  So was Colt McCoy.  So was Case Keenum.   Heck Colt Brennan.   Why weren't they touted as pro prospects?    It's the same reason why mock drafters and us here focus on the QBs traits and how can they translate to the pros.

 

What do Burrow and Jones for example have in common.  IMO they both have really good accuracy and range across the football field.  Neither are fast but have quick feet in the pocket.  They are both good at selling play action.   They both can throw well when flushed out of the pocket.  And they have intangibles through the roof.  Both were also late bloomers.  The Burrow at LSU was superior to the one at Ohio State according to some of the coaches. 

 

Tua who I watched a ton of both in college and the pros IMO doesn't look like the same guy after his hip surgery.  His throws seem labored.  And he never had killer arm strength to begin with.  Although his last two games he played well.   As for Haskins, I agree with supposedly Kyle's Smith take on him among others that he's really a 2nd-3rd round talent. 

 

In college, the intangibles aren't as do or die because the game is different.  They got school and other tasks to do, its not football 24-7 like the pros.   I told this story before that I heard on a podcast of ironically an Ohio State reporter who had access to a QB meeting once for a story he was writing and talked about that in the meeting Joe Burrow was ribbing Haskins about how little Haskins knew their playbook.    Obviously, Haskins could survive that in college.  In part because according to some, Ohio State had a really simplistic playbook at the time which relied heavily on mesh routes which Ohio State's speedy receivers could turn into mega YAC.   Because of the heavy emphasis on these throws he could survive IMO having a limited range of his accuracy.  In the pros not so much.   PFF chartered his college passes, I recall posting that chart, Haskins relied an insane amount on YAC. 

 

Haskins for example can get away with throwing a zillion mesh routes and short crossers and slants and let Paris Campbell run for 60 yard TDs against CBs who aren't as fast as him.  That for example was one of volsmet's thesis about Haskins and pushed me to watch his accuracy around the whole field because he can't get away with being so reliant on a sweet spot in the NFL.  In the NFL, defensive coordinators will shut down your wheel house if its that confined and you don't have a lot more arrows than that in your quiver.   

 

Logan Paulsen talked about this earlier in the season related to Heinicke which is Qbs can get away with a short sample before the defensive coordinators get a beat on them so he wanted to see how Heinicke would do once the sample size got larger because coordinators are adept at foiling QBs once they get a beat on them. But that's the pros where talent is much more even than it is in college. 

 

Arians talks about this plenty of times in his book.   On another note, when I have time I'll pull some of those quotes, its a bit a pain butt because I don't have that book electronically but overall I think its a killer good book about that position.  He talked about in the NFL, there are X factors that are big deals that aren't nearly to the same extent in college. 

 

A.  Defensive coordinators are masters are foiling an offense and in particular can pick apart a QB's niche.  That QB has to refine and keep expanding their skills and growing.   Even at this age Brady talks about always trying to improve on a thing or two from the previous year.  When Kirk asked Brady years back when did he finally get it, Brady's response was something like he's still working on getting it.  Kirk talked about what Brady told him.     

 

B.  Studying protections are incredibly cumbersome and are critical.   Actually Andrew Luck talked about this in one of the NFL films special.  He's spent more time mastering protections than sometimes anything else he did during the week.  Every week is different because each defense is different.  Preparation for this is key. 

 

C.  QBs need to be workaholics the week leading up to the game because the defensive coordinators trying to beat them are working night and day to do it.  They need to have their opponent's defensive scheme-habits down.  When do they like to blitz or fake blitz.  What coverages do they like and when?  On and on.  The great Qbs can process quick like a Peyton Manning in part because they studied the opponent so much that it snaps instantly in their brain what they are seeing.  And the quickness of your processing is absoutely key. 

 

Arians said almost any QB he had good or bad could figure out a defense in time.  so its not about that.  It's about doing it uber fast.  And doing it uber fast is helped by mega work habits.  As smart and experienced as Tom Brady is that's why he still comes to work at 5 am because every game plan is different.  Every defense is different.  And knowing what's coming at you like the back of your hand allows you to process what you see on the field much faster.  

 

If you recall Alex Smith didn't light the world on fire with his play last year but according to a number of beat reporters they were told Alex easily outworked Haskins when he returned.  He studied and mastered Turner's playbook.  And he took the time to master the protections.  Ditto he understood Peyton Manning style where every player needed to be on every play and would help them adjust.  He understood what each play called was and didn't confuse one play for another. All of which according to some was a struggle for Haskins.  What was said was those differences were part of the reason why they won with Alex even with him not putting up big numbers and conversely losing with Haskins. 

 

Edited November 10, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

How is it an indictment of Josh Rosen's work ethic and character that his coach got fired and the new one who came in had been burning a candle for Kyler Murray since 2013?  

 

The indictment on Josh Rosen isn't he played poorly so that means he didn't work hard.  The work ethic questions existed seperately.  Just like they did for Haskins. 

 

I am listening to Brian Mitchell talk right now on the radio about how some teammates were self motivated and some not so much.  Cooley talked about some teammates love football but most didn't and he found that to be an X factor and if he were a GM that would be what he would try to discern more than any other thing as for landing special-elite players. 

 

I just don't see how you could see all these dudes having the same makeup or close enough.  For me its not even debatable.   

 

When for example, Shanahan said he doesn't know the makeup of the QB until they are in the building with him and once he learns that he knows if they have a good chance or not.  And he referenced plenty of players don't have that "it" factor on that front and some do.   Unless I am misunderstanding your logic, your point seems to be Shanny is silly because if he looked deeper he'd see that every Qb he inherited if they were drafted in the first round has the right makeup?  

 

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 Haskins did sign with another team immediately after he passed through waivers,

 

That's not true.  He did not.   He was signed almost a month later after passing through waivers.   

 

And Haskins was a cheapish rookie, not an expensive veteran, he didn't even complete his 2nd season and he was on the market for ANY team to claim for the same price WFT got him without expending a draft pick, and no one jumped at him.  it wasn't like Beckham's situation where the agent told everyone not to claim him because he might not play for them, Haskins just wanted a 2nd chance. 

 

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

And that's really the key to success or failure.  The successful marriage of regime to QB prospect.  It happened for Kingsbury and Murray, Allen and McDermott, it happened for Burrow and Taylor, it's happening for Jones and Belichick.  It did not happen for Haskins and Gruden/Rivera.  It did not happen for Tua and Flores.  It did not happen for Darnold and Bowles/Gase.  The failures of these marriages happen for a ton of reasons, and a common one is not the quality of the prospect, but the contemporary stability of the regime.  When I see you guys talking about hedging bets at QB and bringing in multiple viable paths to take this offseason, it makes me think that you guys don't grasp how important this marriage is.  It's pretty much the entire game of team building.

 

 

It's hard for me to believe that you are as hardcore on this point as you come off because i've read your evaluations of QBs and you do try to differentiate.   Otherwise, why even bother doing assessents if all we got to do is just take one of the first rounders since they must be so alike?  And more to your point, who would be the personality love match so to speak with Scott Turner?

 

Your point if I understand it is Darnold = Mac Jones or close enough.  The difference is Mac Jones has a great relationship with Belichick.  Whereas Darnold had the misfortunate to have bad chemistry with two different coaches?

 

I liked Mac Jones.  I wrote a ton of posts as to why.  I despised the idea of obtaining Darnold and I wrote a ton of posts why.  They didn't feel even remotely to be the same caliber player to me for reasons I've already written volumes about and don't care to repeat.  To me the quality of the prospect, heck yeah, is the reason for it. 

 

I don't consider myself some football savant, yet I can sit down and watch 5 Darnold college games and 3-4 of his pro games and deduce that his accuracy is sketchy and his decision making is horrendous.  I don't think it was that hard to see.   I felt the opposite about Mac Jones.  

 

 

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

You asked what I think of Snyder's level of responsibility for the failure of Haskins--I think it's significant, but I would not frame it the way you did.  You framed it taking for granted that Haskins was massively overdrafted and ended up being the choice here because of a croneyistic relationship with Snyder.  I think that's wrong.  I also think that decisions about the long term direction at QB are ownership level for pretty much every NFL team. 

 

My issue with Snyder isn't that I disagreed with him about Haskins and he was overdrafted albeit I did believe he was overdrafted but its not my operative issue.   My issue with him is it shouldn't be his call.  He's not a football guy.  And he has a history of making calls like this and getting it wrong and creating consternation with his coaches in the process.

 

I'll take a player I did like in the draft, Derrius Guice.  According to Chris Russell, Kyle Smith didn't want to take Guice because of character concerns but Dan overruled him and took him.  Yeah i liked Guice.  I didn't know his character concerns ran that deep.  But still I don't care if Dan agreed with me or not, Dan shouldn't be overruling his football guys.  

 

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Coaches or GMs are supposed to generate a plan at QB, but they still necessarily give owners a voice in outcome.  We did need a long term direction at QB in 2019.  The problem for us is that absolutely nobody who should have been doing so generated a plan at QB, and it was left to the owner to do it.  I've heard a lot of innuendo about how Gruden and Kyle Smith strenuously objected to bringing in Haskins, but I've never actually heard what their QB plan was.  So what was it?  That was rhetorical, I know they didn't have a viable alternative, and having no plan is the worst possible plan. 

 

Not sure if you are saying that since you know who Dan liked and we don't know who Jay-Kyle Smith liked than Dan was OK to make the call?  Let's start with we don't know all of their thinking in a draft.  They aren't obligated to tell everyone hey such and such round, here's the dude we wanted, but the Panthers took him and in the third we targeted this guy but he was gone so we ended up with this one?   

 

Going purely based on beat reporters talking about what they heard.  They loved Kyler Murray.  Jay liked but didn't love Daniel Jones and thought he was better than Haskins.  Jay talked in interviews about liking a QB in the 2nd-3rd round range but never revealed who that was.  

Edited November 10, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[mhd24]

32 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The indictment on Josh Rosen isn't he played poorly so that means he didn't work hard.  The work ethic questions existed seperately.  Just like they did for Haskins. 

 

I am listening to Brian Mitchell talk right now on the radio about how some teammates were self motivated and some not so much.  Cooley talked about some teammates love football but most didn't and he found that to be an X factor and if he were a GM that would be what he would try to discern more than any other thing as for landing special-elite players. 

 

I just don't see how you could see all these dudes having the same makeup or close enough.  For me its not even debatable.   

 

When for example, Shanahan said he doesn't know the makeup of the QB until they are in the building with him and once he learns that he knows if they have a good chance or not.  And he referenced plenty of players don't have that "it" factor on that front and some do.   Unless I am misunderstanding your logic, your point seems to be Shanny is silly because if he looked deeper he'd see that every Qb he inherited if they were drafted in the first round has the right makeup?  

 

 

That's not true.  He did not.   He was signed almost a month later after passing through waivers.   

 

And Haskins was a cheapish rookie, not an expensive veteran, he didn't even complete his 2nd season and he was on the market for ANY team to claim for the same price WFT got him without expending a draft pick, and no one jumped at him.  it wasn't like Beckham's situation where the agent told everyone not to claim him because he might not play for them, Haskins just wanted a 2nd chance. 

 

 

It's hard for me to believe that you are as hardcore on this point as you come off because i've read your evaluations of QBs and you do try to differentiate.   Otherwise, why even bother doing assessents if all we got to do is just take one of the first rounders since they must be so alike?  And more to your point, who would be the personality love match so to speak with Scott Turner?

 

Your point if I understand it is Darnold = Mac Jones or close enough.  The difference is Mac Jones has a great relationship with Belichick.  Whereas Darnold had the misfortunate to have bad chemistry with two different coaches?

 

I liked Mac Jones.  I wrote a ton of posts as to why.  I despised the idea of obtaining Darnold and I wrote a ton of posts why.  They didn't feel even remotely to be the same caliber player to me for reasons I've already written volumes about and don't care to repeat.  To me the quality of the prospect, heck yeah, is the reason for it. 

 

I don't consider myself some football savant, yet I can sit down and watch 5 Darnold college games and 3-4 of his pro games and deduce that his accuracy is sketchy and his decision making is horendous.  I don't think it was that hard to see.   I felt the opposite about Mac Jones.  

 

 

 

My issue with Snyder isn't that I disagreed with him about Haskins and he was overdrafted.  My issue with him is it shouldn't be his call.  He's not a football guy.  And he has a history of making calls like this and getting it wrong and creating consternation with his coaches in the process.

 

I'll take a player I did like in the draft, Derrius Guice.  According to Chris Russell, Kyle Smith didn't want to take Guice because of character concerns but Dan overruled him and took him.  Yeah i liked Guice.  I didn't know his character concerns ran that deep.  But still I don't care if Dan agreed with me or not, Dan shouldn't be overruling his football guys.  

 

 

Not sure if you are saying that since you know who Dan liked and we don't know who Jay-Kyle Smith liked than Dan was OK to make the call?  Let's start with we don't know all of their thinking in a draft.  They aren't obligated to tell everyone hey such and such round, here's the dude we wanted, but the Panthers took him and in the third we targeted this guy but he was gone so we ended up with this one?   

 

Going purely based on beat reporters talking about what they heard.  They loved Kyler Murray.  Jay liked but didn't love Daniel Jones and thought he was better than Haskins.  Jay talked in interviews about liking a QB in the 2nd-3rd round range but never revealed who that was.  

 

 

It was the QB NE took.  Jarett Stidhem..

[Skinsinparadise]

50 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

 

It was the QB NE took.  Jarett Stidhem..

 

I saw that rumor somewhere else, too.  I don't recall where.  But to that point, they did have a plan at QB. 

 

Edited November 10, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

FL rookie rankings at halfway point of 2021 season: Bears' Justin Fields rising

Published: Nov 10, 2021 at 03:26 PM

 

Daniel Jeremiah

NFL Media analyst

 

 

With the 2021 NFL regular season at the halfway mark, former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah has reviewed his notes to rank the top 25 rookies in the league today.

Note: Arrows reflect changes from first-quarter rookie rankings.

 

Rank

1

 

Micah Parsons

Dallas Cowboys · OLB

Parsons should be in the mix for Defensive Player of the Year. He's been that dominant on a weekly basisidseason

 

Rank

2

1

 

Ja'Marr Chase

Cincinnati Bengals · WR

Chase has proven to be a legit No. 1 wideout in the first half of his rookie campaign. He has elite run-after-catch skills. 

 

Rank

3

1

 

Rashawn Slater

Los Angeles Chargers · OT

Slater has played at a Pro Bowl level. He's dominant in pass protection and creates a ton of movement in the run game. 

 

Rank

4

9

 

Kyle Pitts

Atlanta Falcons · TE

It took a couple weeks for the Falcons to figure out how to properly use their new tight end. Since then, he's been a mismatch for defenses in every game.

 

Rank

5

1

 

Mac Jones

New England Patriots · QB

Jones has been the most steady and consistent rookie quarterback. I've been very impressed with his quick processing and accuracy. 

 

 

Rank

6

4

 

Javonte Williams

Denver Broncos · RB

Williams continues to make his mark with power, vision and balance. He's helped the Broncos turn their season around. 

 

Rank

7

2

 

Creed Humphrey

Kansas City Chiefs · C

Humphrey is a solid foundational piece for the Chiefs' new-look offensive line. He's technically sound and reliable in both run and pass blocking. 

 

Rank

8

4

 

Najee Harris

Pittsburgh Steelers · RB

Harris has provided power and physicality in the run game while also contributing heavily in the passing game. He's one of three players with 500-plus rush yards and 250-plus receiving yards this season.

 

Rank

9

5

 

Odafe Oweh

Baltimore Ravens · LB

Oweh has made a handful of game-changing plays for the Ravens. His speed/power combination off the edge shows up every week.

 

Rank

10

3

 

DeVonta Smith

Philadelphia Eagles · WR

Smith is coming off an excellent game against the Chargers (5 catches for 116 yards and a TD). I've been very impressed with his quickness and route polish. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-rookie-rankings-at-halfway-point-of-2021-season-bears-justin-fields-rising?campaign=Twitter_nfl_cfb

[Koolblue13]

Harris instead of Patterson on offense would have made such a difference for us.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

I'm going to do something that's blasphemous here in this draft thread.  Not talk about a QB.  Double blasphemy...talk about a special teams prospect.

 

So Tress Way is good, buuut mayyybbbeee...?

 

 

 

https://www.theringer.com/2021/10/29/22752437/matt-araiza-san-diego-state-punter-nfl-potential

 

Bill Belichick almost exclusively uses lefty punters, as Araiza is.  For some reason punts from a lefty are muffed more often.

[Skinsinparadise]

I am looking forward to this game tomorrow

 

 

 

Parsons is definitely a stud but what an ego...

 

 

 

[kingdaddy]

23 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

NE  is not exactly loaded on offense especially with their injuries.  They are 19th in the league as for rushing yards per game.   Pedestrian.  17th in DVOA as for their run game.   Now last year they were great and were third, Cam was part of that reason.   

 

Arguably the Pats do not even have a true #1 receiver.  Who is PFF's highest grade on the Pats offense?  A RT.  After him, Mac Jones.    Mac clearly isn't an elite QB but he's been a competent QB from the jump.  And my point was he was both pro ready and he had the intangibles to be successful.    A good supporting cast helps but NE doesn't have a killer supporting cast on offense.   Nelson Agholor who is their top WR arguably would be a #3 on some teams.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All good points....no disrespect meant towards Mac Jones, he's doing a great job. As far as receivers, the Pats dumped a ton of money into Janu Smith, Hunter Henry and Nelson Agholar in the offseason. I just think BB is doing a great job with Jones and that Jones has done everything he's been asked to do so far without having to do too much. BB is grooming Mac Jones to mold him into the next you know who.