2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Going Commando]

Was watching some prospect cut ups and I'm absolutely blown away by Will Anderson's.  He's dominant like Chase Young was, and he's got to be the frontrunner for the #1 pick in 2023, assuming Alabama doesn't take all of the tread off his tires by then.  It's incredible how much he resembles Khalil Mack and how many next level plays he's made that are just so Mack-ian in ferocity and creativity.  He would be duking it out with Thibedeaux for #1 overall in this year's class if he were eligible, and I think he would almost certainly be a top five pick.  He and Jordan Davis are going to clean up with some offseason hardware this winter.

 

This is shaping up to be a special group of DLs in terms of top end draft value.  Already said what I think about Jordan Davis, but the edge talent is special too.  Two blue chip Michigan edge players + Karlaftis + Thibedeaux + Enegbare feels like five clear cut top ten edge defenders.  That's so unusual and I can't remember the last time a class had that many, I don't think even 2011 had that.  There will of course be some top ten OTs like Neal/Cross/Ekwonu, as there always are.  Plus we've got some very highly regarded DBs in Stingley/McDuffie/Gardner/Hamilton.  And I'm pretty sure that some skill players like Drake London or Garrett Wilson will be in the mix for top ten consideration.  Given how poorly regarded this QB class is, perhaps it's not so crazy that a QB1 candidate like Malik Willis could make it to our pick in the first round, even if we pick ~11-14.

 

On that DB note: I'm a little surprised by how durable Derek Stingley's stock has been.  He wasn't playing well before he got hurt, hasn't really played great football for two years, and his injury is a foot injury.  His pedigree is amazing and he has awesome film from his freshman year, but he feels way riskier than the draftnik world is acknowledging.  He has clearly been outplayed by McDuffie and the two Cincy corners.

Edited November 17, 2021 by stevemcqueen1

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Was watching some prospect cut ups and I'm absolutely blown away by Will Anderson's.  He's dominant like Chase Young was, and he's got to be the frontrunner for the #1 pick in 2023, assuming Alabama doesn't take all of the tread off his tires by then.  It's incredible how much he resembles Khalil Mack and how many next level plays he's made that are just so Mack-ian in ferocity and creativity.  He would be duking it out with Thibedeaux for #1 overall in this year's class if he were eligible, and I think he would almost certainly be a top five pick.  He and Jordan Davis are going to clean up with some offseason hardware this winter.

 

 

Yeah Brugler I noticed among others is in love with Anderson, saying he's better than any other pass rusher in this class including Thidedeaux. 

 

 I haven't watched Hutchinson a lot but whenever I've watched, he's looked special.  His motor reminds me some of TJ Watt.  I hope he doesn't land in Philly or NY. 

 

 

 

[Going Commando]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Off platform isn't all about arm strength.   Mobility, athleticism and pocket presence has a lot to do with it.  Sometimes Mahomes and Rodgers just flick the ball and toss it but do it from awkard angles.  I don't think of the typical off platform throw as throwing in a different direction than his body is going far down the field -- yeah some of them are like that but its not the typical off platform throw.  

 

These guys are athletes with some dexterity.   Heck our guy here, that's his thing. Heinicke makes those off platform throws.  Heck Colt Mccoy could too. Sadly, they don't have average arm strength but off platform throws are their wheel house.  Many times people talk about baseball experience with some of these guys ala Mahomes and Wilson, they are used to making throws off balance. 

 

I like a Qb with a strong arm.  Those scouts say the same.  But its not the #1 variable IMO.  If arm strength was the be all and end all, guys like Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, Jay Cutler would be Hall of Famers.

 

I think some draftniks and apparently some scouts misunderstand what having elite arm strength means in the context of NFL quarterbacking, and that those scouts are misrepresenting what it means in that article.  It's not just about the arm, it's part and parcel to the total athletic package.  Having an elite NFL arm means being able to throw with explosiveness and control without setting your feet and driving the ball with your lower half.  Pretty much any NFL QB can drive the ball hard outside of the numbers with pretty good accuracy when they're balanced and get to step into the throw.  But what makes an elite NFL arm is being able to make explosive and on target throws without a platform, and what facilitates that is the total athletic package in which things you mention like dexterity and foot speed/agility play a major role.  And I'd actually compare that kind of athleticism to baseball tools rather than basketball tools, although basketball does help you develop quick and smooth feet.

 

For that scout to say that there is no correlation between arm strength and being a great quarterback is a heaping pile of bull****.  It's almost shocking how obviously and blatantly wrong that claim is, there is a massive correlation between being a great QB and having elite arm strength.  Maybe he meant to say there was no causal relationship, which would be slightly more defensible of a claim, but it'd still be wrong.  A big part of what makes Rodgers/Allen/Mahomes/Stafford/Wilson/Wilson so great is their elite arm talent.  It's one of their most defining attributes, and it makes their spectacular creativity possible.  A huge part of why prospects like Herbert/Lawrence/Lance were drafted so high is that elite arm talent.  And a big part of why lesser QBs like Tannehill/Cousins/Mayfield have been able to hold down their jobs and wins games is they have very powerful arms that add an explosive dimension to otherwise very conservative offenses.  Their arm talent lets them work NFL zone coverage defenders like safeties and linebackers in a way that opens up their offenses just enough that their teams aren't out there looking for upgrades.

[Koolblue13]

40 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

That would be such a haul.  You think the Eagles will take him with the Miami pick?  His injury could cause him to drop.

 

Right now our pick is projected at 8th, which I believe you might be correct that it's out of Hamilton range.  I also think we'll probably win a few more games and finish somewhere around 10 or 11.  So the guy I'm eyeballing at that spot is Devin Lloyd.  He's at #11 on McShay's big board, and I feel like he represents one of the best intersections of need to value among the non-QBs for us specifically.

 

But what's really putting my BPA purism to the test is Jordan Davis.  This kid is being massively undervalued by the draft community right now, he's the best defensive player in the class.  Even better than Thibedeaux.  And McShay has him at 21, and Jordan Reid has him at 22 in his mock on ESPN.  I am a huge fan of Daron Payne.  But I'm also seeing a needle we can thread where we can trade back a little bit from our natural first round pick, get the best and most impactful defensive player in the entire class, trade Daron, and just from those two moves generate the capital we need to go up and get Ridder.  So basically we upgrade the interior of our line and get our QB prospect, basically for the cost of one first round pick.  That feels like a blue moon opportunity.  I have a feeling that people are going to more accurately value Jordan Davis as the draft approaches, and I also have a feeling that it'll be tough to trade down in the first this year given the lack of urgency teams are feeling about these QB prospects.

 

As much as I like Ridder, at the end of the day, I would just take Malik Willis with our first round pick if he's there.

I think the bond of Allen/Payne is as valuable as their play and with Payne not demanding a huge contract, I think it's hard to overlook that value. I wouldn't split them up for the next 10 years personally. It's the heart of this defense.

 

If QB wasn't such a huge need, if we're around 10 (which I think is our basement/ceiling depending on how you value the season, ten being the highest we'll pick), I'd say my dream scenario would be Nakobe Dean in the first and Jaquan Brisker in the second and then in the 3rd come back and grab the best big RB. I'd take a flyer on one of the later QBs and roll with Heinicke, which kind of punts the QB elephant in the room, but leaves our defense and run game set for a couple years. 

 

But, because of Hamiltons injury, if he takes a slide like Allen did in the draft and he is sitting at our pick, which is entirely possible with the O&D lineman in this draft, I can't not pick him. Then maybe we can do another 2 2nd rounders back up for Ridder or whoever. 

[KDawg]

52 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think some draftniks and apparently some scouts misunderstand what having elite arm strength means in the context of NFL quarterbacking, and that those scouts are misrepresenting what it means in that article.  It's not just about the arm, it's part and parcel to the total athletic package.  Having an elite NFL arm means being able to throw with explosiveness and control without setting your feet and driving the ball with your lower half.  Pretty much any NFL QB can drive the ball hard outside of the numbers with pretty good accuracy when they're balanced and get to step into the throw.  But what makes an elite NFL arm is being able to make explosive and on target throws without a platform, and what facilitates that is the total athletic package in which things you mention like dexterity and foot speed/agility play a major role.  And I'd actually compare that kind of athleticism to baseball tools rather than basketball tools, although basketball does help you develop quick and smooth feet.

 

For that scout to say that there is no correlation between arm strength and being a great quarterback is a heaping pile of bull****.  It's almost shocking how obviously and blatantly wrong that claim is, there is a massive correlation between being a great QB and having elite arm strength.  Maybe he meant to say there was no causal relationship, which would be slightly more defensible of a claim, but it'd still be wrong.  A big part of what makes Rodgers/Allen/Mahomes/Stafford/Wilson/Wilson so great is their elite arm talent.  It's one of their most defining attributes, and it makes their spectacular creativity possible.  A huge part of why prospects like Herbert/Lawrence/Lance were drafted so high is that elite arm talent.  And a big part of why lesser QBs like Tannehill/Cousins/Mayfield have been able to hold down their jobs and wins games is they have very powerful arms that add an explosive dimension to otherwise very conservative offenses.  Their arm talent lets them work NFL zone coverage defenders like safeties and linebackers in a way that opens up their offenses just enough that their teams aren't out there looking for upgrades.

 

I think our definitions of elite are different. 

 

I understand what the scouts are saying. Measuring a prospect on arm strength is a pretty big mistake. Making off schedule plays can fall into arm strength, but it can also be other things. Throwing on the run doesn't just have to be all arm. You can roll and create a lot of torque with your hips on a throw. Keep in mind that when a kid is learning how to throw they typically do so while moving forward because that momentum allows them to get more into the throw. 

 

Release time is a different category altogether. 

 

I agree that baseball tools is a pretty good platform to base QB evaluations as far as physicality goes. Arm strength is certainly a part of that package. But it's not the end all be all as long as you have a NFL arm. Mahomes makes plays when he flicks his wrist by generating torque on his throws with his hips. Most guys can do that if you have baseline NFL arms. 

 

Pennington can't because he didn't have the arm strength. 

 

Most starting QBs in the NFL have that base line arm strength.

[Going Commando]

47 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I think the bond of Allen/Payne is as valuable as their play and with Payne not demanding a huge contract, I think it's hard to overlook that value. I wouldn't split them up for the next 10 years personally. It's the heart of this defense.

 

If QB wasn't such a huge need, if we're around 10 (which I think is our basement/ceiling depending on how you value the season, ten being the highest we'll pick), I'd say my dream scenario would be Nakobe Dean in the first and Jaquan Brisker in the second and then in the 3rd come back and grab the best big RB. I'd take a flyer on one of the later QBs and roll with Heinicke, which kind of punts the QB elephant in the room, but leaves our defense and run game set for a couple years. 

 

But, because of Hamiltons injury, if he takes a slide like Allen did in the draft and he is sitting at our pick, which is entirely possible with the O&D lineman in this draft, I can't not pick him. Then maybe we can do another 2 2nd rounders back up for Ridder or whoever. 

 

You're probably right, and I agree that the Payne/Allen duo is the heart of the D.  And I think there is real value in DL continuity that doesn't get recognized as often as the value of OL continuity.  But you've got to check out Jordan Davis.  He is so freaking good.  He shows off every elite trait you want in an IDL--Dominant ball get off.  Backfield plays splitting the double team.  Winning his fits immediately off the snap and then working gap to gap with dominant hands.  Range and motor to make plays way the Hell outside of his area and the athleticism to bring guys down off his frame.  He is legitimately exciting to watch and I think it's so interesting that the best player on the best team in CFB is an IDL.  Kind of feels like this is the type of unicorn IDL that ends up in the HoF like an Alan Page or Merlin Olson, and that kind of builds a legend around him that fans will always remember.

 

I see a potential for high draft value with him too because I think he's easily a top ten talent who is being mocked in the 20s.  If we could figure out how to work the draft board to take full advantage of that value, then it'll be like we got a second high draft pick for free.

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

You're probably right, and I agree that the Payne/Allen duo is the heart of the D.  And I think there is real value in DL continuity that doesn't get recognized as often as the value of OL continuity.  But you've got to check out Jordan Davis.  He is so freaking good.  He shows off every elite trait you want in an IDL--Dominant ball get off.  Backfield plays splitting the double team.  Winning his fits immediately off the snap and then working gap to gap with dominant hands.  Range and motor to make plays way the Hell outside of his area and the athleticism to bring guys down off his frame.  He is legitimately exciting to watch and I think it's so interesting that the best player on the best team in CFB is an IDL.  Kind of feels like this is the type of unicorn IDL that ends up in the HoF like an Alan Page or Merlin Olson, and that kind of builds a legend around him that fans will always remember.

 

I see a potential for high draft value with him too because I think he's easily a top ten talent who is being mocked in the 20s.  If we could figure out how to work the draft board to take full advantage of that value, then it'll be like we got a second high draft pick for free.

Sounds like Haynesworth coming out. Despite all the bull**** about him, coming out and early in his career, he was an incredible monster of a player.

 

If last years draft is anything like this year, there is zero BPA approach in any round. It's 100% needs based, which sucks.

[Going Commando]

9 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Sounds like Haynesworth coming out. Despite all the bull**** about him, coming out and early in his career, he was an incredible monster of a player.

 

If last years draft is anything like this year, there is zero BPA approach in any round. It's 100% needs based, which sucks.

 

Haynesworth was a better athlete than him.  I think he ran some kind of crazy 40 and I'd be pleasantly surprised if Davis runs sub 5.1.  The one big critique with Davis is that he's slow, and I admit, the reactive athleticism isn't great.  He's awesome off the snap and with his more scripted movements inside the phone booth, but he does not change directions well, particularly not in the open field.  He's like 6'6 and 350 pounds.  It's a lot of mass to redirect.  NFL teams are quickly going to figure out that you can't run at him and the only way you beat him and create inside creases is by winning with quickness.  Outside zone.  You get him running laterally and you have your guard cross his face and beat him to the fit to create cutback opportunities.

 

I hesitate to compare IDLs to Haynesworth because it's so unflattering.  Haynesworth was a mega talent, maybe one of the most gifted IDLs in the history of the league.  But his career was completely undermined by him being such a horrible person.  He really couldn't handle the violence and emotional swings of the game nor the responsibilities that come with money and fame.  That's why I like the Page/Olsen examples more, because they are legendary talents who were also great people and they fully realized their potential.

[Koolblue13]

4 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Haynesworth was a better athlete than him.  I think he ran some kind of crazy 40 and I'd be pleasantly surprised if Davis runs sub 5.1.  The one big critique with Davis is that he's slow, and I admit, the reactive athleticism isn't great.  He's awesome off the snap and with his more scripted movements inside the phone booth, but he does not change directions well, particularly not in the open field.  He's like 6'6 and 350 pounds.  It's a lot of mass to redirect.  NFL teams are quickly going to figure out that you can't run at him and the only way you beat him and create inside creases is by winning with quickness.  Outside zone.  You get him running laterally and you have your guard cross his face and beat him to the fit to create cutback opportunities.

 

I hesitate to compare IDLs to Haynesworth because it's so unflattering.  Haynesworth was a mega talent, maybe one of the most gifted IDLs in the history of the league.  But his career was completely undermined by him being such a horrible person.  He really couldn't handle the violence and emotional swings of the game nor the responsibilities that come with money and fame.  That's why I like the Page/Olsen examples more, because they are legendary talents who were also great people and they fully realized their potential.

He was such an insane player, but you're right. I think the best from my time were probably John Randle, Kennedy, Sapp, Childress that I remember off the top of my head. I was so excited when we got Haynesworth too.

 

I like our IDL and that's doesn't include Iaon and Settle. I think we over value them as fans and I love that we can just throw the occasional late rounder at the position for a long time.

 

If any of our Dline is on the block, and I've said this even before the season started, it's Sweat. Just a much higher reward than Payne and he won't be worth the contract that he'll demand, when we already are tied to the other end. 

[clskinsfan]

23 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I think my top 5 at the moment would be 

 

1) Corral

2) Howell

3) Pickett

4) Willis

5) Ridder

1) Pickett

2) Corral

3) Howell

4) Willis

5) Strong

 

This is mine. But I have been on the Pickett train for a long while now. IMO he is clearly the best the QB in College football this season that is draft eligible. His accuracy is ridiculous and reminds me a lot of Burrows.  I dont really have any interest in Ridder at all. Its a shame he is a senior because he could really use another season in college. Strong is an enigma to me. I see an NFL arm and processing speed. But I also see poor accuracy on occasion. Regardless. I would be fine with any of these 5 guys. We MUST draft a QB this year. It is absolutely mandatory. 

Edited November 17, 2021 by clskinsfan

[Skinsinparadise]

5 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think some draftniks and apparently some scouts misunderstand what having elite arm strength means in the context of NFL quarterbacking, and that those scouts are misrepresenting what it means in that article.  It's not just about the arm, it's part and parcel to the total athletic package.  Having an elite NFL arm means being able to throw with explosiveness and control without setting your feet and driving the ball with your lower half.  Pretty much any NFL QB can drive the ball hard outside of the numbers with pretty good accuracy when they're balanced and get to step into the throw.  But what makes an elite NFL arm is being able to make explosive and on target throws without a platform, and what facilitates that is the total athletic package in which things you mention like dexterity and foot speed/agility play a major role.  And I'd actually compare that kind of athleticism to baseball tools rather than basketball tools, although basketball does help you develop quick and smooth feet.

 

For that scout to say that there is no correlation between arm strength and being a great quarterback is a heaping pile of bull****.  It's almost shocking how obviously and blatantly wrong that claim is, there is a massive correlation between being a great QB and having elite arm strength.  Maybe he meant to say there was no causal relationship, which would be slightly more defensible of a claim, but it'd still be wrong.  A big part of what makes Rodgers/Allen/Mahomes/Stafford/Wilson/Wilson so great is their elite arm talent.  It's one of their most defining attributes, and it makes their spectacular creativity possible.  A huge part of why prospects like Herbert/Lawrence/Lance were drafted so high is that elite arm talent.  And a big part of why lesser QBs like Tannehill/Cousins/Mayfield have been able to hold down their jobs and wins games is they have very powerful arms that add an explosive dimension to otherwise very conservative offenses.  Their arm talent lets them work NFL zone coverage defenders like safeties and linebackers in a way that opens up their offenses just enough that their teams aren't out there looking for upgrades.

 

If you go through the whole excerpt I posted, they simply were talking about what they value the most.

 

Since we are doing some baseball comparisons.  They'd take a 90 MPH fastball pitcher who has multiple pitches with great control, lets say with a wicked curve, change up versus a dude whose main attribute is he can throw the heat 95 MPH.  

 

They aren't saying they wouldn't want a dude who throws 95 MPH.   If you have that AND everything else.  That's awesone if they also have great arm strength.   

 

For a good chunk of time, Brady and Manning were the best Qbs in the game.  They had good arm strength but nothing crazy.  Neither did someone like Joe Montana. 

 

Lets take Sam Darnold.  I studied him a lot in the previous off season.  Does the dude have a live arm.  You bet.   Heck he can make off platform throws, too.  But why didn't I like him?  Accuracy issues and decision making. 

 

I thought it was interesting that the scouts thought decision making was a big deal because that in particular made me sour on Darnold -- so many dumb decisions in the heat of battle.  And again it might not be that he plays dumb, it could simply be he doesn't have hot vision.   But as for raw talent Sam Darnold has plenty -- but if your weaknesses are accuracy and decision making its tough to make it as a QB. 

Edited November 17, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

1) Pickett

2) Corral

3) Howell

4) Willis

5) Strong

 

This is mine. But I have been on the Pickett train for a long while now. IMO he is clearly the best the QB in College football this season that is draft eligible. His accuracy is ridiculous and reminds me a lot of Burrows.  I dont really have any interest in Ridder at all. Its a shame he is a senior because he could really use another season in college. Strong is an enigma to me. I see an NFL arm and processing speed. But I also see poor accuracy on occasion. Regardless. I would be fine with any of these 5 guys. We MUST draft a QB this year. It is absolutely mandatory. 

 

I really do like Pickett and I'd probably say he and Howell are both pretty much even for me. I don't think the hand size thing is a disqualifier, but it does worry me a bit. 8 1/4 inch hands is absolutely tiny for an NFL QB. He'd likely have the smallest hands of any starting QB in the league. And it obviously is something that's an issue to him now, otherwise he wouldn't need to reportedly wear 2 sets of gloves on his throwing hand. The ball in the NFL is bigger than in college too, so I'm curious how much of an effect that could have on him.

 

Ridder is partially an upside pick. He's got a ton of talent but needs to get more consistent with his accuracy. I do like Strong but I also feel the same way about him...just can't really seem to figure him out. He'll make an amazing play and then follow it up with a head scratcher.

 

Willis is a pure upside pick but I still am not convinced that we'd be a good landing spot for him for multiple reasons.

Edited November 17, 2021 by mistertim

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

We've had some conversations about out routes

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

Out routes are definitely one of those key throws to judge arm strength and decision making for a QB.

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Out routes are definitely one of those key throws to judge arm strength and decision making for a QB.

 

Also a great route to judge receivers by. Do they understand where the DB is that they are targeting? Obviously a backside DB is a problem for a receiver. The receiver can really only attempt to manipulate/position against one. When that second curl defender comes into the picture that's on the QB/secondary route runner to take them off balance. 

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

 

Also a great route to judge receivers by. Do they understand where the DB is that they are targeting? Obviously a backside DB is a problem for a receiver. The receiver can really only attempt to manipulate/position against one. When that second curl defender comes into the picture that's on the QB/secondary route runner to take them off balance. 

Beat a CB on a couple out routes and then the upfield turn is there for you to get behind them, too.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Out routes are definitely one of those key throws to judge arm strength and decision making for a QB.

 

ditto accuracy.   As I've said before, I watched some of our QBs in training camps and it stunned me to watch Haskins struggle to throw short quick out routes in the flat.  WRs had to turn back and at times make diving catches.   Colt for his faults did well with the short out routes -- hit WRs in stride but struggled with other throws.

 

I've been tough on Daniel Jones but I'll give him hitting WRs in stride on quick outs is his niche.  

[Going Commando]

16 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

If you go through the whole excerpt I posted, they simply were talking about what they value the most.

 

Since we are doing some baseball comparisons.  They'd take a 90 MPH fastball pitcher who has multiple pitches with great control, lets say with a wicked curve, change up versus a dude whose main attribute is he can throw the heat 95 MPH.  

 

They aren't saying they wouldn't want a dude who throws 95 MPH.   If you have that AND everything else.  That's awesone if they also have great arm strength.   

 

Your analogy doesn't hold up well in the face of the reality of MLB pitching/contracts/teambuilding.  Not in support of your argument anyway.  Sure, in theory you would want a pitcher who has three dominant pitches but just a 90 MPH fastball over a guy who you know will only ever have that one big fastball.  But in reality, that guy who tops out at 90 is not going to get drafted over the guy who hits 95, or 98 to prove the point.  And in reality, almost all of let's say the top 25 starters in the MLB over the last five years throw ~94/~95 or better.  And the best of the best frequently average over 96 or 97.  There are guys in the MLB who dominate with just two pitches when one of them is a 97 MPH fastball.  Line up the list the top average fastball velocity against a list of top pitching WAR for the season and it will be most of the same names.  For every Hyun Jin Ryu, you're going to see like 10 guys above him in WAR who throw 94+.  Fastball velocity is pretty much the most singularly valuable trait for scouting pitching.  There are many other things that scouts weigh, and maybe all of the other traits combined outweigh velocity, but nothing comes close to weighing as much individually as velocity.  So sure, if your pitching prospect is elite in fastball velocity but awful in every other regard, you'll take the guy who is decent at everything ahead of him.  But that's a low upside proposition all around, and it seems kind of like a pointless straw man argument to battle,  as nobody wants to draft either of those prospects to build a staff around.  When we're talking about drafting a QB prospect, we're talking about a team targeting one prospect to build their offense around for many years, not a complex effort to build an entire pitching staff, minors and all.  So you presumably want to get a prospect with the highest upside possible.  And quarterback prospects who literally can't do anything other than throw the ball hard from a stationary position don't make it anywhere close to NFL consideration any more.  All of the prospects who make it this far can do lots of things well, and generally have a very clear record of excellent play at some point in their college careers.

 

22 hours ago, KDawg said:

I understand what the scouts are saying. Measuring a prospect on arm strength is a pretty big mistake. Making off schedule plays can fall into arm strength, but it can also be other things. Throwing on the run doesn't just have to be all arm. You can roll and create a lot of torque with your hips on a throw. Keep in mind that when a kid is learning how to throw they typically do so while moving forward because that momentum allows them to get more into the throw. 

 

Release time is a different category altogether. 

 

I agree that baseball tools is a pretty good platform to base QB evaluations as far as physicality goes. Arm strength is certainly a part of that package. But it's not the end all be all as long as you have a NFL arm. Mahomes makes plays when he flicks his wrist by generating torque on his throws with his hips. Most guys can do that if you have baseline NFL arms. 

 

Wanted to respond to both posts with this one since it seems we've reached a point where we need to better define our terms.  I think pitching analogies ultimately break down for football anyway because pitching is a heavily rotated position and QBs don't come anywhere near as close to throwing such a small suite of ultra specialized throws as pitchers do.  It's vastly more dynamic types of throwing, and I was actually comparing the type of arm talent elite QBs need to fielders like short stops or 3B, not pitchers.  The days of Ryan Mallet type QB prospects being the golden standard for arm talent are over.  Being able to throw on the move has become a mandatory aspect of being considered to have elite arm talent IMO.  And I think this is the phrase we should be using instead of arm strength, because it more accurately covers the whole suite tools it takes to be an elite NFL thrower.  Arm strength makes it sound like the velocity is only coming from the arm, whereas you need agility and balance and throw slot variability and dexterity throughout your body, as well as plain physical might in order to generate high velocity on the dynamic throws QBs make.  Even something as seemingly simple as being able to turn your body comfortably in all directions matters.  So it's a lot of complex skills that make up arm talent.  But the result is, in order to have elite NFL arm talent, no matter what process you use to get there, you must have access to the kind of velocity needed to utilize the windows in NFL zones, particularly the deep zones.  That's a tangible, results based benchmark to me.  And then you can kind of grade it out comparitively from there:

 

Kenny Pickett can work those specified zones with desired velocity, but only after getting his feet reset.  However, he is unusually agile and capable of resetting his feet rapidly.  Does this mean he has elite arm talent?  I think it means it's good, but not elite, because comparatively, Malik Willis or Matt Corral can generate that velocity without having to reset their feet.  So on and so forth.

 

This kind of dynamism is why I've been arguing that arm talent is one of the most singularly valuable attributes in the QB prospect's overall make up.  For most of the good QBs, it's what makes their creativity possible, and for most of the good offenses, it's where a lot of their explosiveness comes from.

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Your analogy doesn't hold up well in the face of the reality of MLB pitching/contracts/teambuilding.  Not in support of your argument anyway.  Sure, in theory you would want a pitcher who has three dominant pitches but just a 90 MPH fastball over a guy who you know will only ever have that one big fastball.  But in reality, that guy who tops out at 90 is not going to get drafted over the guy who hits 95, or 98 to prove the point.  And in reality, almost all of let's say the top 25 starters in the MLB over the last five years throw ~94/~95 or better.  And the best of the best frequently average over 96 or 97.  There are guys in the MLB who dominate with just two pitches when one of them is a 97 MPH fastball.  Line up the list the top average fastball velocity against a list of top pitching WAR for the season and it will be most of the same names.  For every Hyun Jin Ryu, you're going to see like 10 guys above him in WAR who throw 94+.  Fastball velocity is pretty much the most singularly valuable trait for scouting pitching.  There are many other things that scouts weigh, and maybe all of the other traits combined outweigh velocity, but nothing comes close to weighing as much individually as velocity.  So sure, if your pitching prospect is elite in fastball velocity but awful in every other regard, you'll take the guy who is decent at everything ahead of him.  But that's a low upside proposition all around, and it seems kind of like a pointless straw man argument to battle,  as nobody wants to draft either of those prospects to build a staff around.  When we're talking about drafting a QB prospect, we're talking about a team targeting one prospect to build their offense around for many years, not a complex effort to build an entire pitching staff, minors and all.  So you presumably want to get a prospect with the highest upside possible.  And quarterback prospects who literally can't do anything other than throw the ball hard from a stationary position don't make it anywhere close to NFL consideration any more.  All of the prospects who make it this far can do lots of things well, and generally have a very clear record of excellent play at some point in their college careers.

 

 

Wanted to respond to both posts with this one since it seems we've reached a point where we need to better define our terms.  I think pitching analogies ultimately break down for football anyway because pitching is a heavily rotated position and QBs don't come anywhere near as close to throwing such a small suite of ultra specialized throws as pitchers do.  It's vastly more dynamic types of throwing, and I was actually comparing the type of arm talent elite QBs need to fielders like short stops or 3B, not pitchers.  The days of Ryan Mallet type QB prospects being the golden standard for arm talent are over.  Being able to throw on the move has become a mandatory aspect of being considered to have elite arm talent IMO.  And I think this is the phrase we should be using instead of arm strength, because it more accurately covers the whole suite tools it takes to be an elite NFL thrower.  Arm strength makes it sound like the velocity is only coming from the arm, whereas you need agility and balance and throw slot variability and dexterity throughout your body, as well as plain physical might in order to generate high velocity on the dynamic throws QBs make.  Even something as seemingly simple as being able to turn your body comfortably in all directions matters.  So it's a lot of complex skills that make up arm talent.  But the result is, in order to have elite NFL arm talent, no matter what process you use to get there, you must have access to the kind of velocity needed to utilize the windows in NFL zones, particularly the deep zones.  That's a tangible, results based benchmark to me.  And then you can kind of grade it out comparitively from there:

 

Kenny Pickett can work those specified zones with desired velocity, but only after getting his feet reset.  However, he is unusually agile and capable of resetting his feet rapidly.  Does this mean he has elite arm talent?  I think it means it's good, but not elite, because comparatively, Malik Willis or Matt Corral can generate that velocity without having to reset their feet.  So on and so forth.

 

This kind of dynamism is why I've been arguing that arm talent is one of the most singularly valuable attributes in the QB prospect's overall make up.  For most of the good QBs, it's what makes their creativity possible, and for most of the good offenses, it's where a lot of their explosiveness comes from.

 

To your point: Kenny Pickett is a better QUARTERBACK than Malik Willis right now even though Willis has the better arm. Creativity be darned.

 

Pickett has the baseline NFL arm. Can make the throws but won't dazzle you. Combine that with the fact he is a better quarterback.

 

The rub there, though, is Malik Willis' ability to maximize potential. If Willis has the mental traits to maximize that and goes to a situation with adequate support and a plan he will likely wind up being the better quarterback. If he doesn't then he won't match Pickett.

 

Pickett's rub is the hands and gloves. With the NFL pigskin being bigger than the collegiate ball there's a chance that his arm strength decreases with the NFL ball. If that happens he no longer has that NFL arm.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Your analogy doesn't hold up well in the face of the reality of MLB pitching/contracts/teambuilding.  Not in support of your argument anyway.  Sure, in theory you would want a pitcher who has three dominant pitches but just a 90 MPH fastball over a guy who you know will only ever have that one big fastball.  But in reality, that guy who tops out at 90 is not going to get drafted over the guy who hits 95, or 98 to prove the point.  And in reality, almost all of let's say the top 25 starters in the MLB over the last five years throw ~94/~95 or better.  And the best of the best frequently average over 96 or 97.  There are guys in the MLB who dominate with just two pitches when one of them is a 97 MPH fastball.  Line up the list the top average fastball velocity against a list of top pitching WAR for the season and it will be most of the same names.  For every Hyun Jin Ryu, you're going to see like 10 guys above him in WAR who throw 94+.  Fastball velocity is pretty much the most singularly valuable trait for scouting pitching.  There are many other things that scouts weigh, and maybe all of the other traits combined outweigh velocity, but nothing comes close to weighing as much individually as velocity.  So sure, if your pitching prospect is elite in fastball velocity but awful in every other regard, you'll take the guy who is decent at everything ahead of him.  But that's a low upside proposition all around, and it seems kind of like a pointless straw man argument to battle,  as nobody wants to draft either of those prospects to build a staff around.  When we're talking about drafting a QB prospect, we're talking about a team targeting one prospect to build their offense around for many years, not a complex effort to build an entire pitching staff, minors and all.  So you presumably want to get a prospect with the highest upside possible.  And quarterback prospects who literally can't do anything other than throw the ball hard from a stationary position don't make it anywhere close to NFL consideration any more.  All of the prospects who make it this far can do lots of things well, and generally have a very clear record of excellent play at some point in their college careers.

 

 

Been a long time since I was heavy into baseball.  Mariano Rivera who is easily the best reliever of all time, also wasn't the hardest thrower.  He would top at 94.  But he often was at 91-92.  But he had wicked control of his cut fastball.  his version of QB ball placement was insane.  Chapman, the Yankees current closer can hit 102 MPH.  He's good but he's not even close to Rivera.

 

I think we are going too deep in the weeds.

 

Jay Gruden who played the spot and coached the spot, got into it deeply in a couple of recent podcasts.  In short, he's looking for Qbs who check a lot of boxes.   Arm strength wasn't the headliner where the rest to him was just gravy.  That is what I took from the point of the scouts.  You seem to think they are wrong.  And that arm strength is the top headliner.   That's cool.  But you aren't going to convince me so i think we are spinning our wheels.  I am on the same page that if you have a lot going for you AND you got that wicked fastball -- that's ideal.  

 

As for having decent arm strength as a baseline, I am a fanatic about it actually.  I slammed on a thread the WP story years back that claimed that Colt McCoy improved his arm strength.  I was at camp, I can see that his arm strength was "meh" and I slammed him for it.  I was not in the camp that Colt is as good as Kirk or close enough -- sounds crazy now but at the time there were some who pushed that narrative.   I  conversely defended Mac Jones for having the baseline arm strength needed when some questioned him -- I talked about seeing him play live and I could tell he had enough in that department.   You might recall but earlier this year you give some high praise to Heinicke on this thread and I responded to you saying I liked what I've seen too but can a player with that type of arm strength be successful?

 

So in short, I believe heavily in baseline arm strength.  But arm strength alone doesn't move me.   I want a QB who can process well, has accuracy all across the field, makes good decisions, has high intangibles -- and has baseline arm strength.   But I am not an arm strength is the #1 thing kind of guy so I am with the scouts on that front. 

Edited November 18, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Anselmheifer]

Where would you guys rank the top tier QB’s just in terms of arm strength this year, and how good are they individually if you are just looking at that metric?

[Going Commando]

32 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Been a long time since I was heavy into baseball.  Mariano Rivera who is easily the best reliever of all time, also wasn't the hardest thrower.  He would top at 94.  But he often was at 91-92.  But he had wicked control of his cut fastball.  his version of QB ball placement was insane.  Chapman, the Yankees current closer can hit 102 MPH.  He's good but he's not even close to Rivera.

 

I think we are going too deep in the weeds.

 

The sport has changed to some extent.  A lot of organizations like the Nats and Astros and Mets place huge emphasis on acquiring power arms, and the approach has been super effective.  And pretty much every team does it with their bullpens, but demand far outstrips the supply.  Which feeds into the value of the prospect who might only have that plus fastball, one decent offspeed, and then an inkling of a third pitch down the road.

 

I agree we're getting too deep into the weeds, and I don't really love an analogy of pitcher to quarterback because of how much more athletically/technique specialized pitchers are.  I think velocity probably weights a lot more heavily in the equation of scouting/success for a pitcher than it does for a QB, who requires far more general athleticism and more dynamic mental/intangible traits.  For example, pitchers can be dumb as a box of rocks (and often are) and still be great, whereas a QB has to be really intuitive and a quick thinker.

 

41 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Jay Gruden who played the spot and coached the spot, got into it deeply in a couple of recent podcasts.  In short, he's looking for Qbs who check a lot of boxes.   Arm strength wasn't the headliner where the rest to him was just gravy.  That is what I took from the point of the scouts.  You seem to think they are wrong.  And that arm strength is the top headliner.   That's cool.  But you aren't going to convince me so i think we are spinning our wheels.  I am on the same page that if you have a lot going for you AND you got that wicked fastball -- that's ideal.  

 

I notice people who play this sport at a high level almost never talk about their superior physical traits and talents when they talk about what they value most either in themselves, or in someone else who plays their position.  They always talk about things like their relentlessness or their versatility or their toughness as being their most valuable or distinctive trait.  "What makes me special is my relentlessness and love for the game"  and oh yeah, I can run a 4.5 40 at 275 pounds.

 

I get that no one wants to believe that a hugely important factor in their success in a grueling competition is something they were mostly born with or developed through natural, almost magical giftedness.  And it feels conceited and anti-team to talk about possessing special physical gifts.  But the top players at this level of the sport almost all have special physical gifts and it's a big factor in what sets them apart from the mortals of the NFL.  For QBs, this usually comes in the form of arm talent.

 

If we look at the weight of desirable QB traits like sections on a pie chart, arm talent is going to be one of the biggest slices for me.  Maybe the most individually big.  And I think any honest and reflective scout and GM and coach and playcaller would admit that as well.  That's because it heavily determines the upside of the prospect.  So to return to the point I made in the previous post: let's say you're a new GM or HC with personnel power, and you're starting your build off looking for a QB.  What you're shopping for is one single guy that you're building your offense and locker room around.  You are tying the ultimate success or failure of your regime to this one guy.  So for most, that means you are looking for the highest upside prospect/vet possible.

 

This is why QBs with elite arm talent tend to get drafted so high in spite of other warts they might show.  And it's a part of why prospects who are OK but lower upside than guys that get picked after them often don't end up working out well long term.  Their teams get passed in the rebuild process when other teams with less premium building resources swing big and get MVP type play from their QBs.  Success and failure outcomes are obviously far more complicated than that, but it's a factor that any good NFL GM would fear when they're deciding to hitch their wagon to a QB.

[mistertim]

38 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

Where would you guys rank the top tier QB’s just in terms of arm strength this year, and how good are they individually if you are just looking at that metric?

 

I think Willis is the only guy in this class with a NFL elite level cannon. Most of the other guys have good but not elite arms. From my top 5:

 

Corral : NFL +

Howell : NFL +

Pickett : NFL average

Willis : NFL excellent, possibly NFL elite

Ridder : NFL +