2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[DWinzit]

Once they took Davis in the first, I wanted either Moehrig, Eich or Cosmi in the second. Was thrilled Cosmi dropped to us and they took him. Seemed like a no brainier.

 

My third round would have been way different...I wanted Tommy Tremble and Derrick Barnes. I wanted Tremble to be used at TE/FB/HB. Would have been a great addition in short yardage/goal line situations. I do like  St-Juste a lot.

 

In the sixth round I was certain they were going to Jonathan Cooper.

 

Really liked the Toney pick.

 

 

[Koolblue13]

16 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Once they took Davis in the first, I wanted either Moehrig, Eich or Cosmi in the second. Was thrilled Cosmi dropped to us and they took him. Seemed like a no brainier.

 

My third round would have been way different...I wanted Tommy Tremble and Derrick Barnes. I wanted Tremble to be used at TE/FB/HB. Would have been a great addition in short yardage/goal line situations. I do like  St-Juste a lot.

 

In the sixth round I was certain they were going to Jonathan Cooper.

 

Really liked the Toney pick.

 

 

Once it was clear we weren't getting a QB, Moehrig was my guy too and Bolton in the second, but I am really happy with Cosmi and we couldn't back up from 19.

 

Definitely with you on the 3rd round. I think the Tremble pick was unanimous around here. 

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, philibusters said:

 

If I recall Steve ranked the LB'ers Collins, JOK, then Davis.  For what its worth Collins played pretty well before his injury, but he was only playing one third of Arizona's snaps.  I liked the Toney pick because I watched him enough at Penn St. to know he was a good college player.  

 

Yep.  Collins then Wu then a big step down to the tier of Davis/Werner/Cox/Rice etc.  Second and third rounders.  Parsons was clearly the biggest talent of the group, but he would have been off my board because of character reasons.  I actually think he's been vastly overrated as a linebacker this season.  His decent PFF grade is entirely a product of his elite pass rush grade because his run defense and coverage grades are in the 50s.  He's not as good as he or his fans think he is.  Wu has definitely been better than him, and I feel that was a very predictable outcome.  Zaven actually has the highest PFF grade of all the rookie LBs, he just didn't played enough snaps.

 

Davis was my favorite of the second tier group and I was an early fan of his in last year's draft thread, but he was a second rounder at best.  Just didn't make anywhere near the same volume of plays as Collins/Wu.  He's been pretty bad this year and has been vastly outplayed by Pete Werner and Nick Bolton.  We knew he was much more raw than those guys, but he shouldn't be struggling as much as he has in this very favorable situation and system.  I'm still hopeful for his development, but I'm having a hard time finding favorable precedents to compare him too.  He should be making more plays.  But I'll also note that the PFF grades for the LBers from 2020 have been absolutely brutal too.  14 LBers were taken in the first three rounds of that draft and the only one who has graded as an average or above player from the group is Alex Highsmith, and he's a rush linebacker for the Steelers.  Basically an edge player.  It used to be that you could tell a future All Pro or HoF bound stack linebacker during his rookie year, but the days of Bobby Wagners and Luke Kuechlys are probably over.  The position has gotten harder to play.

 

I know you did one in this thread too, and you're the only other one who did a full draft with me:

 

I want to encourage everyone this year to make a post like we did that keeps a contemporary record of who we would have drafted at our slots so that we can have these retrospective discussions/analysis without hindsight bias creeping in.  You think it won't creep in, but it always does unless you write it down.  And you can't improve your process or your analysis unless you keep accurate records of it.  Here was my list:

 

19 - Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah

51 - Sam Cosmi

74 - Wyatt Davis

82 - Tommy Tremble

124 - Tylan Wallace

163 - Jamar Johnson

225 - Trey Smith

240 - Bryce Thompson

246 - Marvin Wilson

258 - Cade Johnson

 

Three hits.  Maybe one more in time with Tremble.  But I think a strong takeaway from that process is the value of patience.  Of that big class, only JOK, Cosmi, Smith, and Tremble have gotten any snaps this season.  So I'm going to be patient with guys like Dyami and Jamin.  And with a guy like St Juste, it's actually a good sign that he's playing at all as a rookie, even if he's not really playing that well.  And the common traits that I see between the guys who did hit from my class are plus athleticism, and high level college production for the LBer, or in the absence of that, lots of starts in the case of the OLs.  That seems to be what helps guys make the early jump, as they don't really have to transform their bodies that much to compete with NFL vets.  They hit this level and can spend their rookie seasons just focusing on their techniques.

[RichmondRedskin88]

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

I was hoping for Mac in the first and Bolton in the second. Both went before our picks.

I know many questioned Mac but man he was my top guy along with N Harris. You could see how smart of a player he was.  I said it over and over those were the guys I wanted. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

7 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

You know who had an insanely powerful arm? Rex mother****ing Grossman. That dude had a cannon. McNabb, too. Those are probably the 2 biggest arms we've had since Rypien. 

What are you talking about?  Grossman's biggest knock coming out of Florida is he had a Spurrior offense arm.  It was on the "average to below average" on the NFL scale. 

 

Which always made it odd that he wanted to sling it.

 

The best arm's we've had since Rypien were Geoff George, Ramsey, Jason Campbell (though he had one of the slowest releases I've ever seen), McNabb (great arm, but had no idea where the ball was going to go) Griffin and Haskins.  

 

Arm talent isn't everything.  I've always said that it's table stakes: You have to have it, or you're limited.  Having it doesn't mean you can play.  George had a cannon.  But he was a horrible QB.  Jamarcus Russell, the #1 pick in the draft, had a great arm.  He was out of the league in 3 years.  

[Koolblue13]

19 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

What are you talking about?  Grossman's biggest knock coming out of Florida is he had a Spurrior offense arm.  It was on the "average to below average" on the NFL scale. 

 

Which always made it odd that he wanted to sling it.

 

The best arm's we've had since Rypien were Geoff George, Ramsey, Jason Campbell (though he had one of the slowest releases I've ever seen), McNabb (great arm, but had no idea where the ball was going to go) Griffin and Haskins.  

 

Arm talent isn't everything.  I've always said that it's table stakes: You have to have it, or you're limited.  Having it doesn't mean you can play.  George had a cannon.  But he was a horrible QB.  Jamarcus Russell, the #1 pick in the draft, had a great arm.  He was out of the league in 3 years.  

I agree that arm strength is over rated to a point.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

I agree that arm strength is over rated to a point.

I don’t think you’re getting my point. You HAVE to have an NFL arm or nothing else matters.  You and the offense will be limited and inconsistent.

 

However, if you do have an NFL arm, that doesn’t mean you are a good QB.it just means you are at the table and get cards. Doesn’t mean you will win the game.

[KDawg]

Kyle Boller could throw a ball from his knees something like 70 yards through the uprights.

 

He didn't reach expectations. People get so fixated on arm strength and they forget productivity.

 

I think Pickett and Howell are the guys in this class who are akin to Mac Jones. Can come in and contribute. Corral is similar to them. Willis has the cannon and the legs... But if you watch him he doesn't play "quarterback". He's a runner with a really live arm. His play fakes aren't great. He can do it. He can be a GREAT quarterback in the NFL. Just needs some time to marinade.

Edited November 15, 2021 by KDawg

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

I agree that arm strength is over rated to a point.

 

I don't care much about arm strength.   I was one of the few here who liked Mac Jones (I recall you did too) and the dude doesn't have a rocket.    But I am wary about Qbs who have weak arms.  Mac to me has average arm strength and that's fine. 

 

The issue to me with weak arm Qbs:

 

A.  Cold weather -- playoff games.

 

B.   Picks-batting balls down.  The QB with a weak arm needs to be really on and throw with anticipation with little room for error.  Otherwise, they are vulnerbale to good defenses who have a beat on them.

Edited November 16, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, RichmondRedskin88 said:

I know many questioned Mac but man he was my top guy along with N Harris. You could see how smart of a player he was.  I said it over and over those were the guys I wanted. 

 

I practically wrote an encylopedia for Mac Jones on the draft thread last off season.  I wrote more about him than any player in that draft and by a mile.  I watched just about every game and seen him play live too.

 

My regret with him is I pushed him as a player I liked but I should have pushed him more.    There were two people, i gather you were one who absolutely loved him.  I deeply liked him, didn't go as far as loving him.  it kills me to see him play as well as he's playing for NE.  😢

 

If I had to take a lesson from Mac its this:  Accuracy matters.  And Intangibles matter. 

 

The three guys granted aren't apples to apples who have some Mac Jones traits to me are:  Corral, Pickett, Howell.   Corral IMO especially.  He's a different type of player but like Jones he makes quick decisions, and has a quick release and has really good accuracy.  IMO he has a stronger arm than Jones and is faster.   But his offense is a bit more gimmicky -- with heavy RPOs.

[Skinsinparadise]

I think I prefer Haener among the mid round guys but Zappe holds some intrigue for me for reasons I've stated previously.   

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

8 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I don’t think you’re getting my point. You HAVE to have an NFL arm or nothing else matters.  You and the offense will be limited and inconsistent.

 

However, if you do have an NFL arm, that doesn’t mean you are a good QB.it just means you are at the table and get cards. Doesn’t mean you will win the game.

I do get that point. I'm saying that having a huge Canon of an arm isn't as important as having an average NFL arm and a good head.

[Going Commando]

Arm strength is one of the single most important quarterback traits.  Nobody thinks it's the whole game, but it is a massive advantage for the player and his team, because having a big arm is a huge part of being an explosive playmaker at the QB position.  Most of the best QBs in the game right now have utterly elite arm strength: Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Rodgers, Herbert, Stafford.  Even the next tier down of arm talent among QBs is made up of guys who are winners and they can absolutely smoke it: Kirk, Russ, Tannehill, etc.  Even Matt Ryan has an explosive arm.

 

If you don't get a guy who can throw it with the dynamism of at least a Matt Ryan, then you're not going to have regular access to the full repertoire of throws that explosive offenses utilize.  Cover 2 and 3 beaters that don't require the defense to completely **** up in order to hit.  No matter how good you are at drafting, you are not going to have a team that is utterly dominant on the ground and on defense that can let you run a short range, between the numbers passing game to great effect every year.  Maybe you can be consistently dominant on the ground if your QB is a special runner like Lamar Jackson, but realistically, the defense is going to fluctuate and you're going to be vulnerable to OLine attrition like Baltimore has been.  Have an explosive playmaking QB is a way to buoy your offensive success year in and year out as the quality of personnel around the guy fluctuates.  More than almost any other type of offensive play, chunky outside the numbers playmaking, and moving pocket improv playmaking in the passing game covers up sins.  It just buys time for everyone by letting you be late.  Lets your weapons get extra steps on their route concepts to either separate or brace for impact.  Let's your OLs recover from bad sets and bad punches.  Keeps safeties lined up deep to give your runners easier reads and better creases.  NFL coverages that don't fear your vertical passing offense will always sit down on your underneath game.

[KDawg]

6 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Arm strength is one of the single most important quarterback traits.  Nobody thinks it's the whole game, but it is a massive advantage for the player and his team, because having a big arm is a huge part of being an explosive playmaker at the QB position.  Most of the best QBs in the game right now have utterly elite arm strength: Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Rodgers, Herbert, Stafford.  Even the next tier down of arm talent among QBs is made up of guys who are winners and they can absolutely smoke it: Kirk, Russ, Tannehill, etc.  Even Matt Ryan has an explosive arm.

 

If you don't get a guy who can throw it with the dynamism of at least a Matt Ryan, then you're not going to have regular access to the full repertoire of throws that explosive offenses utilize.  Cover 2 and 3 beaters that don't require the defense to completely **** up in order to hit.  No matter how good you are at drafting, you are not going to have a team that is utterly dominant on the ground and on defense that can let you run a short range, between the numbers passing game to great effect every year.  Maybe you can be consistently dominant on the ground if your QB is a special runner like Lamar Jackson, but realistically, the defense is going to fluctuate and you're going to be vulnerable to OLine attrition like Baltimore has been.  Have an explosive playmaking QB is a way to buoy your offensive success year in and year out as the quality of personnel around the guy fluctuates.  More than almost any other type of offensive play, chunky outside the numbers playmaking, and moving pocket improv playmaking in the passing game covers up sins.  It just buys time for everyone by letting you be late.  Lets your weapons get extra steps on their route concepts to either separate or brace for impact.  Let's your OLs recover from bad sets and bad punches.  Keeps safeties lined up deep to give your runners easier reads and better creases.  NFL coverages that don't fear your vertical passing offense will always sit down on your underneath game.

 

An NFL arm is necessary. Basing evaluations too much on arm strength leads to people getting blinders about a prospect's faults. It's happened a great many times.

 

The mantra of "arm strength isn't everything" does not equate to: "The QB can have a wet noodle and as long as he's smart he's great".

 

Heinicke, skill wise, is one of the better QBs we've seen in DC. Pocket presence, play fakes, mental toughness, legs, release time... That's what makes him a quarterback that can survive in the NFL. What holds him back is that he doesn't have a NFL arm and he's smaller so the hits add up and he can't use his legs/hips with his throws and his arm looks even weaker. So he isn't a full-time starter type.

 

If you can find a guy with actual QB skills and a howitzer... yes. Those are the elite prospects. A guy with arm strength and not much else is NOT an elite prospect. It's a guy with a great arm. The problem here is that too many fall in love with arm strength and forget what a quarterback does. 

[Skinsinparadise]

41 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

An NFL arm is necessary. Basing evaluations too much on arm strength leads to people getting blinders about a prospect's faults. It's happened a great many times.

 

Agree, I would say more than any skill, this one has been from what I noticed the most common skill of busts that draft geeks where high on said player.  They'd go great arm but....  and they'd gloss over the buts but in the end the buts ended up being the bigger deal at the end.   

 

41 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

The mantra of "arm strength isn't everything" does not equate to: "The QB can have a wet noodle and as long as he's smart he's great".

 

 

Agree with this too.  You usually need a major league NFL arm to be good in the NFL.  Matt Ryan is a good example, some say he has a below average arm.  I disagree but he certainly doesn't have a rocket.  Average or maybe slightly above.  He famously worked on improving his arm strength one off season and claimed to improve it.  Joe Burrow doesn't have a rocket.   Among others.

 

The Heinickes, Colt McCoy -- maybe even Andy Dalton types though are limited because their arm strength is "meh."

 

41 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

If you can find a guy with actual QB skills and a howitzer... yes. Those are the elite prospects. A guy with arm strength and not much else is NOT an elite prospect. It's a guy with a great arm. The problem here is that too many fall in love with arm strength and forget what a quarterback does. 

 

Yep.   Mac Jones IMO is a perfect case in point.  Average arm strength IMO but does so many things well as I pointed out before that draft.  

 

For me, if I had to pick what I am looking for more than anything when I watch QBs is accuracy-range.  Not heck he is great with just lets say slants or quick outs, etc and maybe he will fix his accuracy issues elsewhere but a dude who can do it all now because their footwork and delivery are good now.  Quick release.  Good decision making.

 

IMO decision making is really underrated.  I've seen some coaches who say its tough to fix because some of it is vision driven.  But the reason why I hammered Rosen and Darnold so much when they were on the trading block is if you watch enough of their games you can see they are train wrecks on that front in both college and the pros.  In college they were lucky and survived their fair share of stupid throws but you could see that not translating to the pros so much.  Mac Jones on the other hand looked super sharp to me as for decision making.  

Edited November 16, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

I think Chad Pennington is a good example. He had an average (good) nfl arm when he came into the league, but his vision and head were top notch. He injured his throwing shoulder and was never the same. Smart as ****, but without the zip on his balls, he was out of the league.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

An NFL arm is necessary. Basing evaluations too much on arm strength leads to people getting blinders about a prospect's faults. It's happened a great many times.

 

The mantra of "arm strength isn't everything" does not equate to: "The QB can have a wet noodle and as long as he's smart he's great".

 

Heinicke, skill wise, is one of the better QBs we've seen in DC. Pocket presence, play fakes, mental toughness, legs, release time... That's what makes him a quarterback that can survive in the NFL. What holds him back is that he doesn't have a NFL arm and he's smaller so the hits add up and he can't use his legs/hips with his throws and his arm looks even weaker. So he isn't a full-time starter type.

 

If you can find a guy with actual QB skills and a howitzer... yes. Those are the elite prospects. A guy with arm strength and not much else is NOT an elite prospect. It's a guy with a great arm. The problem here is that too many fall in love with arm strength and forget what a quarterback does. 

 

I'm making a much stronger claim than that.  I'm saying that almost all of the best QBs in the game today have elite arm strength.  It's as singularly important as any other QB trait.  And it's often what separates back ups from stars.  I think you're right that Heinicke has a ton of great traits and has almost all of the things you want to see at the position: cool under pressure, great mobility, natural creativity, natural leadership skills, excellent touch and placement such that he routinely puts the ball on the money, and he sees the field and deciphers coverages pretty well.  But he is a back up caliber QB because he has low end arm strength and can't beat cover 2 and 3 vertically unless there are big breakdowns, and he can never be late on throws and that's just not feasible for any QB to never be late.  None of the positive traits that he does have individually outweigh the trait of arm strength.

 

There are big play outside the numbers throws and/or those cover 3 beater layers that require explosive arm talent, and that pretty much every quality passing offense seems to get two or maybe three times a week against good coverage.  And they make the difference between a scoring drive and a punt.  It comes up enough that I think they've become a big factor in winning games because offenses have been struggling to stay ahead of the chains and this digs them out of holes.  There are so few dominant run games in the league now, and most of the good teams have seemed to go away from them because of their lack of long term sustainability.  Instead they usually build around these super talented QBs with explosive arm talent.  It's basically the QB equivalent of speed with other positions.  If you're drafting really high, it's something you want in your QB so that he can have the upside to be one of the best QBs in the NFL one day.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

My guy! I'm more excited for a high second round pick than the first round

[KDawg]

8 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I'm making a much stronger claim than that.  I'm saying that almost all of the best QBs in the game today have elite arm strength.  It's as singularly important as any other QB trait.  And it's often what separates back ups from stars.  I think you're right that Heinicke has a ton of great traits and has almost all of the things you want to see at the position: cool under pressure, great mobility, natural creativity, natural leadership skills, excellent touch and placement such that he routinely puts the ball on the money, and he sees the field and deciphers coverages pretty well.  But he is a back up caliber QB because he has low end arm strength and can't beat cover 2 and 3 vertically unless there are big breakdowns, and he can never be late on throws and that's just not feasible for any QB to never be late.  None of the positive traits that he does have individually outweigh the trait of arm strength.

 

There are big play outside the numbers throws and/or those cover 3 beater layers that require explosive arm talent, and that pretty much every quality passing offense seems to get two or maybe three times a week against good coverage.  And they make the difference between a scoring drive and a punt.  It comes up enough that I think they've become a big factor in winning games because offenses have been struggling to stay ahead of the chains and this digs them out of holes.  There are so few dominant run games in the league now, and most of the good teams have seemed to go away from them because of their lack of long term sustainability.  Instead they usually build around these super talented QBs with explosive arm talent.  It's basically the QB equivalent of speed with other positions.  If you're drafting really high, it's something you want in your QB so that he can have the upside to be one of the best QBs in the NFL one day.

 

But even having a strong arm doesn't mean you can make the throws outside the hashes to the sideline. Haskins has a rifle but he can't hit the broad side of a barn outside of the hash, for instance.

 

If people are looking at arm strength as the single biggest factor of NFL success I think they are looking at the wrong factor unless they are doing it on a scale: Is it a live enough arm to make the NFL throws? If yes, move on. It doesn't need to be elite. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I think Chad Pennington is a good example. He had an average (good) nfl arm when he came into the league, but his vision and head were top notch. He injured his throwing shoulder and was never the same. Smart as ****, but without the zip on his balls, he was out of the league.

 

My best analogy I can think of to this is to pitching in baseball.

 

You got some guys who can throw 93-95 miles an hour but have so poor control that they still stink.  I'd take an 88-92 MPH fastball pitcher with pinpoint control over a harder faster pitcher without that control anyday of the week.

 

The football obituary for flameout draft busts are littered with dudes with really good fastballs but bad control.

 

But can you survive with an 83-85 MPH fastball or be an elite pitcher with that?  Almost certainly not. 

 

And like baseball, the intangibles matter in football too.  Guys like Gerrit Cole have talent but is also a voracious studier, he knows his opponents like the back of his hand.  Greg Maddux and others, ditto.  My point is dudes like Mac Jones can thrive without the heater because to compare him to baseball -- he has pinpoint control, and studied like mad.  Intangibles. 

[Going Commando]

21 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

But even having a strong arm doesn't mean you can make the throws outside the hashes to the sideline. Haskins has a rifle but he can't hit the broad side of a barn outside of the hash, for instance.

 

If people are looking at arm strength as the single biggest factor of NFL success I think they are looking at the wrong factor unless they are doing it on a scale: Is it a live enough arm to make the NFL throws? If yes, move on. It doesn't need to be elite. 

 

I think it does need to be elite though, in order for the guy to become one of the best QBs in the NFL.  If you were to make two rankings of the NFL's starting QBs, one by arm strength and one that is just an overall ranking, the top ten of both rankings will be almost the same group of names.

 

NFL teams will chase arm talent when they are making super costly trades or signing mega salaries or picking at the top of drafts because of how valuable and spectacular the payout can be when it pans out.  They would rather take a chance on raw upside and fail than settle for lesser arm talent because it's actually less realistic that all of the other traits are so special with a guy that he can still become an elite QB without elite arm talent.

 

The bar for upper end arm talent has also gotten really high.  I've been watching the Falcons a lot since I moved to Atlanta, and was surprised at how explosive Matt Ryan's arm is given his reputation for mediocrity.  If he is the baseline for average, that's pretty high.  Then average offense has access to these vertical zone coverage beaters that seem special, and I think that might actually be true.  I've seen throws from the Titans, Browns, and Vikings offenses this season--teams with game manager type QBs that are not well regarded and who run offenses that are predicated on a great run game--that I know we don't have access to with our QB room.  If those QBs can't crack a top ten list for arm strength, then middle of the pack starter is actually a really powerful and explosive arm.

[Warhead36]

The idea is that you can't really coach arm talent. You can coach a lot of the other stuff, so get the guy with the arm talent and coach up the other stuff. That's what the Chiefs did with Mahomes and the Bills with Allen.

 

Overall though things like accuracy, quickness of release, and ability to make the right decision under duress are the three most important traits to being a successful QB.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

The idea is that you can't really coach arm talent. You can coach a lot of the other stuff, so get the guy with the arm talent and coach up the other stuff. That's what the Chiefs did with Mahomes and the Bills with Allen.

 

Overall though things like accuracy, quickness of release, and ability to make the right decision under duress are the three most important traits to being a successful QB.

If the guy with arm talent struggles with the three things you just said that arm is useless. I can think of a first rounder we drafted that is a great example.

[Warhead36]

20 minutes ago, KDawg said:

If the guy with arm talent struggles with the three things you just said that arm is useless. I can think of a first rounder we drafted that is a great example.

For sure. That's why its so hard. But on the flip side if they have mediocre arm talent then even with those other three things their ceiling is limited.