2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

For sure. That's why its so hard. But on the flip side if they have mediocre arm talent then even with those other three things their ceiling is limited.

 

Right. Which I think is the point that I'm making. Maybe I'm not conveying it well.

 

Mediocre is a qualifying word.

 

Mediocre for a NFL QB? Or mediocre in general? 

 

Mediocre in general isn't a very high bar. 

 

You need a NFL arm. It doesn't have to be more than that. If you have a NFL arm and have the other traits you'll do just fine. If you have a high end NFL arm and have none of the traits you won't.

 

The qualifier is that you have to have a NFL arm. 

[Anselmheifer]

 

I have two qualifiers. I suck at scouting QB’s, didn’t like Josh Allen or Justin Herbert. And, I’ve watched zero full CFB games this season. 
 

But beyond having tiny hands, I really like Pickett. Very good mobility. Seems to move well in the pocket. Plus arm. Able to throw on the run and off platform. 

[skinny21]

For giggles (and ****), I came up with a ‘build a qb’ scenario below, but first…

IMO, you need a baseline of certain traits to really succeed in the NFL:

 

Poise - ability to deal with pressure, whether that’s physical pressure from pass rushers, or mental pressure from big moments.  Keeping your eyes downfield, not wilting in the face of a pass rush, etc.

Processing speed - the ability to make quick (sound) decisions.  Without it, you’re staring down receivers, having trouble making post snap reads, recognizing when to step up, scramble, throw the ball away, etc.

Arm strength - you can have limited success with a poor arm, but that’s it.  

Accuracy - I’m not talking specifically about completion percentage, but putting the ball in the catch window.  It can be inconsistent to some extent, but lasting success is predicated on getting the ball into fairly tight windows.

Learning ability - ie coachability.  Need to be able to pick up offenses, learn defenses, etc.  Ability to learn quickly is a plus.  Guys that are slower learners can work out, but they need to have the opportunity to do so (and the NFL isn’t known for patience).

Work ethic/attitude - low hanging fruit - Haskins.  You’ve got to be willing to work your butt off, but you’ll also turn off coaches/teammates if you are lacking here.

 

Bonus traits:

Mobility, size (including hand size, height, and build/thickness), moxie, grit and leadership.  You could argue for a baseline for some of these traits (you can’t be 5’3”, trip over your feet every time you drop back, etc), but I think you can be pretty poor, relative to an NFL average, and still succeed.

I left off anticipation because I think it can be viewed as a combination of processing speed and learning ability (along with some degree of accuracy).  Open to disagreement here though.

 

Turning this into a fun exercise, let’s say you’re trying to build a qb.  Suppose that your qb has all of the baseline (and bonus) traits listed above at a below average level for the NFL*.  Now you have 10 points to add to your qb, each point increasing that trait: below average bumps to average, average to good, and good to elite.  How do you spend them?

 

 

* My thinking here was to average NFL/College qbs and use that as the baseline average… which I imagine equates to (roughly) a below average mark for an NFL qb.

Edited November 16, 2021 by skinny21

[KDawg]

30 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

I have two qualifiers. I suck at scouting QB’s, didn’t like Josh Allen or Justin Herbert. And, I’ve watched zero full CFB games this season. 
 

But beyond having tiny hands, I really like Pickett. Very good mobility. Seems to move well in the pocket. Plus arm. Able to throw on the run and off platform. 

 

Pickett and Howell are the safest bets (Corral fits in. He's a NOTCH more risky and a few notches higher upside)

[Koolblue13]

I just can't move past the tiny hands and two gloves thing with him. I'm pretty much all in on Howell and Corral and in that order.

[KDawg]

9 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I just can't move past the tiny hands and two gloves thing with him. I'm pretty much all in on Howell and Corral and in that order.

 

For me it's Howell/Corral (I wouldn't mind either, prefer Howell but you won't get a single word from me if we manage to snag Corral...) and then Pickett... and then I'm not sure yet.

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

 

For me it's Howell/Corral (I wouldn't mind either, prefer Howell but you won't get a single word from me if we manage to snag Corral...) and then Pickett... and then I'm not sure yet.

It's Howell, Corral for me too, but I'm not taking Pickett. Willis is next for me and I'm not super enthusiastic about it, then Ridder, but the Willis Ridder thing is 2A/2B, just like Howell/Corral is 1A/1B and it's for similar reasons as you tend to make about support and such when it comes to the B group.

 

But if Philly can stick with Hurts, we can weather Willis/Ridder.

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

The idea is that you can't really coach arm talent. You can coach a lot of the other stuff, so get the guy with the arm talent and coach up the other stuff. That's what the Chiefs did with Mahomes and the Bills with Allen.

 

Overall though things like accuracy, quickness of release, and ability to make the right decision under duress are the three most important traits to being a successful QB.

 

Arm talent is also one of the easiest things to scout for as well, so it's basically just a box you can tick off. All you have to do is watch a little bit of film and you almost immediately get a feel for whether or not a guy has a big time arm.

 

And you're right...it's not really something that you can coach for the most part. It has to do with genetics and body mechanics that can create that crazy torque. It's like a vertical leap; you can practice technique and maximize your genetic potential for explosion, but at the end of the day you're still limited by that genetic potential. A guy with a 30 inch vertical may be able to add an inch or two, but he'll never be a guy with a 40 inch vertical. A guy with a decent but not great arm will be able to add a little bit to it with improved technique, but he'll never be among the upper echelon in the NFL as far as ability to make crazy throws.

 

For me high level arm talent is just that: a necessary box to tick off. Does he have it or no?

 

Yes? Awesome, now move on to the stuff that's much harder to diagnose like decision making, accuracy, poise, pocket feel, mechanics, etc.

 

No? Well, where does his arm land on the NFL spectrum? Is it good enough to make all the necessary throws but nothing more? Is it below average to where it could potentially be a major hindrance to his ability to play in the league?

 

Then you'll have to weigh it against how good he is in the other aspects of his game. Mac Jones would fall into the former category: good enough to make all the throws but nothing to write home about, however the other aspects of his game make up for not having a cannon. Taylor Heinicke would fall into the latter category: no matter how good the other aspects of his game are, his lack of NFL arm strength is going to hinder him. And we've seen that.

Edited November 16, 2021 by mistertim

[ThomasRoane]

Man, none of the QB's give me the impression that they are Bonafide NFL starters.  Caleb Williams peaked my interest but after the Baylor whuppin and getting benched it's obvious he needs another year or two of college.  

 

If I worked in the WFT FO my philosophy would be BPA across the board.  If it ends up being a QB then fine.  I would not reach though.  If the choice for the first three rounds is between a QB or a highly graded Receiver, Safety, or OLine (any position) then I'm passing on this crop of QBs.  If you have a shot at a decent QB who can develop in the fourth round then fine.  I'm just not impressed with the QBs who will be available.  I'd even consider trading down for future picks.  

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[Anselmheifer]

I didn’t realize the size difference in the hall from the NFL to D1 CFB. The D1 ball is 22 inches in circumference. The NFL ball is a full inch larger in terms of circumference or about 5%. It’s 1/2 inch longer. 
 

If Pickett has to wear two gloves to throw a college ball, maybe it actually does matter more than I thought that his hands are tiny. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

Position rankings

Quarterback

1. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
2. Malik Willis, Liberty
3. Matt Corral, Ole Miss
4. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
5. Sam Howell, North Carolina
6. Carson Strong, Nevada
7. Phil Jurkovec, Boston College
8. Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky
9. Jayden Daniels, Arizona State
10. Jake Haener, Fresno State

[mistertim]

49 minutes ago, ThomasRoane said:

Man, none of the QB's give me the impression that they are Bonafide NFL starters.  Caleb Williams peaked my interest but after the Baylor whuppin and getting benched it's obvious he needs another year or two of college.  

 

If I worked in the WFT FO my philosophy would be BPA across the board.  If it ends up being a QB then fine.  I would not reach though.  If the choice for the first three rounds is between a QB or a highly graded Receiver, Safety, or OLine (any position) then I'm passing on this crop of QBs.  If you have a shot at a decent QB who can develop in the fourth round then fine.  I'm just not impressed with the QBs who will be available.  I'd even consider trading down for future picks.  

 

I think it's pretty clear from what they've been saying that the WFT coaches and brass realize that they have to get a QB sooner rather than later. I don't think any of them believe that Heinicke is the future, at least they're not acting like it or talking like it.

 

You pretty much have to have a franchise QB in today's NFL to be a perennial contender and every coaching staff knows it, including ours. I don't think they'll necessary reach for a QB if they don't value him highly, but I can't imagine they'll go into next season with only Taylor Heinicke on the payroll (Allen with be a RFA).

 

The main question is whether they'll go all in for the draft or try to trade for a QB beforehand. I feel pretty confident that we can forget Rodgers, Wilson, or Watson coming here. So that doesn't leave much for trades, unless Atlanta decides to try and deal Ryan. Mariota will be a FA but I'm mostly meh on him and he's probably looking to go somewhere and start, not be a bridge.

 

Going BPA across the board will likely end up in more bad to mediocre teams without a legit QB. It has to be BPA with positional value and need thrown in to the mix. With all of those factors, QB is going to far outweigh others.

[method man]

49 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It’d be dumb for him to go back to UNC for another year. If he is graduating, maybe he can go play for Lincoln Riley for a year

 

At the end of the day though, he needs to ignore the mocks and have the confidence that he will be considered a clear first rounder

[mistertim]

34 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Position rankings

Quarterback

1. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
2. Malik Willis, Liberty
3. Matt Corral, Ole Miss
4. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
5. Sam Howell, North Carolina
6. Carson Strong, Nevada
7. Phil Jurkovec, Boston College
8. Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky
9. Jayden Daniels, Arizona State
10. Jake Haener, Fresno State

 

I think my top 5 at the moment would be 

 

1) Corral

2) Howell

3) Pickett

4) Willis

5) Ridder

[Skinsinparadise]

58 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I think my top 5 at the moment would be 

 

1) Corral

2) Howell

3) Pickett

4) Willis

5) Ridder

 

The only thing I am convinced of is Corral #1.   If Howell keeps at this pace, he's played better later in the season than earlier, he's likely my #2, but Pickett is growing on me, looking forward to their game against Virginia this Sat.  Willis I am still digesting, from the sample I watched i like him more than some do here but I need to spend more time on him before pushing him.  

 

I was somewhat early on Ridder, I pushed him some last year.  Now, i waffle on him.  i like him in some ways and in some ways I don't.  

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

I think it's pretty clear from what they've been saying that the WFT coaches and brass realize that they have to get a QB sooner rather than later. I don't think any of them believe that Heinicke is the future, at least they're not acting like it or talking like it.

 

You pretty much have to have a franchise QB in today's NFL to be a perennial contender and every coaching staff knows it, including ours. I don't think they'll necessary reach for a QB if they don't value him highly, but I can't imagine they'll go into next season with only Taylor Heinicke on the payroll (Allen with be a RFA).

 

The main question is whether they'll go all in for the draft or try to trade for a QB beforehand. I feel pretty confident that we can forget Rodgers, Wilson, or Watson coming here. So that doesn't leave much for trades, unless Atlanta decides to try and deal Ryan. Mariota will be a FA but I'm mostly meh on him and he's probably looking to go somewhere and start, not be a bridge.

 

Going BPA across the board will likely end up in more bad to mediocre teams without a legit QB. It has to be BPA with positional value and need thrown in to the mix. With all of those factors, QB is going to far outweigh others.

 

Yeah based on what the beat guys have said they heard, heck based on Rivera's own comments, if feels like they will be in Code Red mode to find a QB this off season.

 

Rivera isn't dumb.  I don't think it escapes him that the #1 criticism he has gotten this season is why did he punt on QBs?  I think he knows if he punts again on the spot and they have a mediocre or worse season he's likely a deadman walking.

 

I think there is zero chance they punt on QB this off season with the exception of if Heinicke has some miracle run to end the season.  Keim said recently he heard they see Heinicke as a low end starter or high end backup.

Edited November 16, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

2 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

I didn’t realize the size difference in the hall from the NFL to D1 CFB. The D1 ball is 22 inches in circumference. The NFL ball is a full inch larger in terms of circumference or about 5%. It’s 1/2 inch longer. 
 

If Pickett has to wear two gloves to throw a college ball, maybe it actually does matter more than I thought that his hands are tiny. 

Yup. That will be on display clear as day at combines and pro days.

[philibusters]

3 hours ago, ThomasRoane said:

Man, none of the QB's give me the impression that they are Bonafide NFL starters.  Caleb Williams peaked my interest but after the Baylor whuppin and getting benched it's obvious he needs another year or two of college.  

 

If I worked in the WFT FO my philosophy would be BPA across the board.  If it ends up being a QB then fine.  I would not reach though.  If the choice for the first three rounds is between a QB or a highly graded Receiver, Safety, or OLine (any position) then I'm passing on this crop of QBs.  If you have a shot at a decent QB who can develop in the fourth round then fine.  I'm just not impressed with the QBs who will be available.  I'd even consider trading down for future picks.  

 

For whats it worth Caleb Williams isn't eligible for the draft.  And he won't be next year either.  He is a true freshman.

[ium786]

On 11/15/2021 at 6:57 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

I think I prefer Haener among the mid round guys but Zappe holds some intrigue for me for reasons I've stated previously.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

I had to edit this post because first I put that I preferred Zappe over Haener, but then I went re-watched some of Haener, and now i think I prefer Haener.  I don't know, but they're both underrated QB's.  Zappe would be better in shotgun with a clean pocket, but Haener would be better under pressure or throwing on the move.

Edited November 18, 2021 by ium786

[Going Commando]

17 hours ago, ThomasRoane said:

Man, none of the QB's give me the impression that they are Bonafide NFL starters.  Caleb Williams peaked my interest but after the Baylor whuppin and getting benched it's obvious he needs another year or two of college.  

 

If I worked in the WFT FO my philosophy would be BPA across the board.  If it ends up being a QB then fine.  I would not reach though.  If the choice for the first three rounds is between a QB or a highly graded Receiver, Safety, or OLine (any position) then I'm passing on this crop of QBs.  If you have a shot at a decent QB who can develop in the fourth round then fine.  I'm just not impressed with the QBs who will be available.  I'd even consider trading down for future picks.  

 

Get ready to be disappointed, because I can almost guarantee that if we draft late top ten, then the BPA is going to be a DB or DL.  But we've got to get a QB.  We can't wait on the position any more.

 

Now that doesn't necessarily mean we pick one with our natural first rounder.  Let's say we pick like 9th, then I would love a class where we get a bonafide blue chipper with the first and then trade back up in the late first for someone like Desmond Rider.

[Skinsinparadise]

QB evaluations according to scouts, etc.

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/new-york/giants/post/_/id/58668/what-matters-when-evaluating-qbs-today-not-height-and-arm-strength

 

"A non-negotiable for me is instincts. It really is," Gettleman said. "There are guys that are big, great arm, great athletes. They can't figure it out. I don't think people talk about it enough. Instincts are critical. You turn around at every position -- people will fall in love with the height, weight, speed, defensive tackle, but you put his hand in the dirt, he can't find the ball, he doesn't understand blocking schemes -- so all this great height, weight, speed, whatever he's got, it doesn't make a difference."

Instincts are something you can't necessarily put your finger on and say, "Aha, that's it!" But neither are some other vital quarterback qualities that evaluators prioritize, which further adds to the subjective nature of the process and complicates matters.

A feel for the game -- which cannot be quantified -- matters.

"A guy has to have a natural instinct on where to go with the ball, and he can place it where he wants to," a quarterbacks coach said. "That is kind of the whole thing."

One NFL executive considered leadership his No. 1 skill for a quarterback. There isn't a be-all, tell-all database for leadership. Wins and losses only tell part of the story. Speaking to coaches and teammates can help, but it's ultimately a projection when you're trying to figure how a 20-something will be able to lead grown men. That executive had decision-making and accuracy second and third on his QB priority list.

An NFL coach listed functional intelligence, natural decision-making and accuracy as his top three needs when evaluating college quarterbacks. Another had a quarterback's ability to control the game, poise in the pocket and vision atop his list.

Arm strength and height weren't necessarily prioritized by the more than a handful of executives, scouts and coaches polled. In fact, one coach was weary of quarterbacks over 6-foot-4. Hand size was viewed by some as simply a compensating factor for height.

It doesn't mean there isn’t a minimum threshold for all, but they're not top priorities.

"Accuracy over arm strength," according to a scout.

 

To some, this isn't necessarily new. It has nothing to do with spread offenses and consistently shorter throws in today's NFL.

"It hasn't changed," a second executive said. "I just think people have been looking at the wrong thing. People are still talking about arm strength in 2019. ... There is no correlation between having a strong arm and being a great quarterback. There is a certain standard you must have, but once you get that, anything after that, it doesn't matter who has the strongest arm in the NFL."

What does seem to matter most is that a quarterback can create, whether it be by using different arm angles, sliding in the pocket or running. The evaluators polled seemed to be in agreement that avoiding pressure and making plays under duress was mandatory.

[Koolblue13]

44 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Get ready to be disappointed, because I can almost guarantee that if we draft late top ten, then the BPA is going to be a DB or DL.  But we've got to get a QB.  We can't wait on the position any more.

 

Now that doesn't necessarily mean we pick one with our natural first rounder.  Let's say we pick like 9th, then I would love a class where we get a bonafide blue chipper with the first and then trade back up in the late first for someone like Desmond Rider.

Imagine coming out of this draft with Hamilton and Ridder? That would be amazing, but pretty sure he'll be an Eagle.

[Going Commando]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

"It hasn't changed," a second executive said. "I just think people have been looking at the wrong thing. People are still talking about arm strength in 2019. ... There is no correlation between having a strong arm and being a great quarterback. There is a certain standard you must have, but once you get that, anything after that, it doesn't matter who has the strongest arm in the NFL."

 

What does seem to matter most is that a quarterback can create, whether it be by using different arm angles, sliding in the pocket or running. The evaluators polled seemed to be in agreement that avoiding pressure and making plays under duress was mandatory.

 

There is a contradiction between these two sentences.  How does that scout think that most of the best QBs in the NFL do their creating?  How do Mahomes and Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers and Matt Stafford stick all of those incredible, awkward arm/platform throws?  It's ****ing arm strength.

 

And height is absolutely still a critical and sorting factor for QB prospects.  If it weren't, then there would be more than four starting QBs under 6'2 in the NFL.  Most of the QBs shorter than that get sorted out of the NFL pipeline long before draft time.  It's easy but completely inaccurate to say "height doesn't matter" when maybe only one prospect per year who doesn't meet the minimum norms for NFL QB height reaches the level of consideration for the NFL, and only after they have historic college careers where they win Heisman Trophies or NCs or reset their program record books.

[Going Commando]

16 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Imagine coming out of this draft with Hamilton and Ridder? That would be amazing, but pretty sure he'll be an Eagle.

 

That would be such a haul.  You think the Eagles will take him with the Miami pick?  His injury could cause him to drop.

 

Right now our pick is projected at 8th, which I believe you might be correct that it's out of Hamilton range.  I also think we'll probably win a few more games and finish somewhere around 10 or 11.  So the guy I'm eyeballing at that spot is Devin Lloyd.  He's at #11 on McShay's big board, and I feel like he represents one of the best intersections of need to value among the non-QBs for us specifically.

 

But what's really putting my BPA purism to the test is Jordan Davis.  This kid is being massively undervalued by the draft community right now, he's the best defensive player in the class.  Even better than Thibedeaux.  And McShay has him at 21, and Jordan Reid has him at 22 in his mock on ESPN.  I am a huge fan of Daron Payne.  But I'm also seeing a needle we can thread where we can trade back a little bit from our natural first round pick, get the best and most impactful defensive player in the entire class, trade Daron, and just from those two moves generate the capital we need to go up and get Ridder.  So basically we upgrade the interior of our line and get our QB prospect, basically for the cost of one first round pick.  That feels like a blue moon opportunity.  I have a feeling that people are going to more accurately value Jordan Davis as the draft approaches, and I also have a feeling that it'll be tough to trade down in the first this year given the lack of urgency teams are feeling about these QB prospects.

 

As much as I like Ridder, at the end of the day, I would just take Malik Willis with our first round pick if he's there.

[Skinsinparadise]

47 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

There is a contradiction between these two sentences.  How does that scout think that most of the best QBs in the NFL do their creating?  How do Mahomes and Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers and Matt Stafford stick all of those incredible, awkward arm/platform throws?  It's ****ing arm strength.

 

 

Off platform isn't all about arm strength.   Mobility, athleticism and pocket presence has a lot to do with it.  Sometimes Mahomes and Rodgers just flick the ball and toss it but do it from awkard angles.  I don't think of the typical off platform throw as throwing in a different direction than his body is going far down the field -- yeah some of them are like that but its not the typical off platform throw.  

 

These guys are athletes with some dexterity.   Heck our guy here, that's his thing. Heinicke makes those off platform throws.  Heck Colt Mccoy could too. Sadly, they don't have average arm strength but off platform throws are their wheel house.  Many times people talk about baseball experience with some of these guys ala Mahomes and Wilson, they are used to making throws off balance. 

 

I like a Qb with a strong arm.  Those scouts say the same.  But its not the #1 variable IMO.  If arm strength was the be all and end all, guys like Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, Jay Cutler would be Hall of Famers.

 

I think the scouts sell it well.  You want QBs to meet certain thresholds including arm strength. 

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/new-york/giants/post/_/id/58668/what-matters-when-evaluating-qbs-today-not-height-and-arm-strength

What does seem to matter most is that a quarterback can create, whether it be by using different arm angles, sliding in the pocket or running. The evaluators polled seemed to be in agreement that avoiding pressure and making plays under duress was mandatory.

It's something the Giants seem to be prioritizing for their next quarterback.

 

"I really value a guy that can move around, because that doesn't mean he's a runner," Giants coach Pat Shurmur said. "It just means he has a way to clean his feet in the pocket or scramble when necessary. Typically, if you're going to have long drives and do it on a consistent basis, somewhere in that drive the quarterback has to do something with his feet to keep a drive alive or get a first down. Even guys that are not considered mobile, it might be subtle movement in the pocket. That mobility, I think, is very important. I think it's essential, really, for a quarterback to have great success."

 

https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/8/19/16171316/nfl-exec-thinks-blake-bortles-has-better-arm-strength-than-tom-brady

 

The exec that Giardi spoke with highlighted Brady’s work ethic and commented on recent discussions that Brady’s arm strength faded over the course of the season.

“You think Bill and [Josh McDaniels] aren’t paying attention to what his arm looks like, how it responds?,” the exec asked. “I think in some of those conditions, he still managed to cut it through the wind and the elements. He doesn’t have the arm of, say, a Blake Bortles or Aaron Rodgers, but it’s obviously more than good enough to win with. He’s done that better than anyone in league history.”

Edited November 17, 2021 by Skinsinparadise