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Election 2022 (Dems in charge of Senate. Reps take the House. Herschel Walker headed back home to ignore his children )

Cooked Crack

By Cooked Crack
in The Tailgate

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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Die Hard said:


After the polling debacles after 2016, 2020, and 2022… they should just stop polling altogether. I’ll never give them an ounce of credibility ever again.

If what comes out of this is that polling is completely broken and unreliable, and that’s accepted by party strategists and donors, then you lose the ability to run an extreme campaign because you lose the ability to track in real time how your message is playing and make adjustments. Leading polls but losing elections isn’t going to be helpful, and if that’s what comes from it I suspect we’ll see a surge or moderate/sane candidates because investing there and supporting that will prove out to be the more reliable way to win elections 

 

or so I can hope …

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Cooked Crack

Cooked Crack

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Die Hard said:


After the polling debacles after 2016, 2020, and 2022… they should just stop polling altogether. I’ll never give them an ounce of credibility ever again.

Polls this year were actually quite good. You just have to ignore all the wacky GOP pollsters that flooded the zone.

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Die Hard

Die Hard

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Cooked Crack said:

Polls this year were actually quite good. You just have to ignore all the wacky GOP pollsters that flooded the zone.


I know better than to take away any polling info from a Republican candidate. 
 

But even all the MSM was predicting a red wave/tsunami. Except for some of the extremist GOP candidates - with the exception of JD Vance in Ohio, he was trailing almost the whole way and yet won.

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Renegade7

Renegade7

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Die Hard said:


I know better than to take away any polling info from a Republican candidate. 
 

But even all the MSM was predicting a red wave/tsunami. Except for some of the extremist GOP candidates - with the exception of JD Vance in Ohio, he was trailing almost the whole way and yet won.

 

It's ironic there are some articles about that calling them out, column in WaPo the other day, folks second guessing themselves because of the clearly tainted conservative polls.  Sometimes jus have to trust what you got and call obvious bs for obvious bs.

 

That and look into ways to get poll data without inundation folks with phone calls and texts, it gets to a point you want to ignore them all there so many.  Couple I told them call back at different time because I was working but wouldn't listen, they need to.

Edited by Renegade7
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Cooked Crack

Cooked Crack

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Take the House of Representatives. Though the final tally will not be known for some time, The Economist has built a statistical model to estimate vote-counts in each race based on the number of outstanding ballots in each county. This model shows Republicans on track to win roughly 50.8% of the total votes cast for either major party in the chamber. If so, pollsters will have come impressively close: our aggregate of so-called generic-ballot polls had the party winning 50.4%.  Such a showing would make the polls this year some of the most accurate ever. In midterm elections since 1942, the generic ballot has missed the Democrats’ share of the House popular vote by nearly three percentage points on average. Error has been below one point in only a fifth of all midterm contests over the same period.

 

9 minutes ago, Die Hard said:


I know better than to take away any polling info from a Republican candidate. 
 

But even all the MSM was predicting a red wave/tsunami. Except for some of the extremist GOP candidates - with the exception of JD Vance in Ohio, he was trailing almost the whole way and yet won.

Not even talking about internal polling. A bunch of right wing outfits flooded the zone with polls. These polls would get mixed in with aggregation making it look more dire for Democrats.

 

Never posted any of them here cause I thought they were bull****. Good job by me.

 

The media were jilted by polls in the past and just went with vibes. Figured this election would be like most midterms and end up with the President's party getting shellacked. So they talked up crime and inflation thinking that's what people would be voting on. Didn't take seriously the threat people thought Republicans were. They'd probably have been right if the supreme court didn't go full mask off and Republicans went full MAGA.

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PleaseBlitz

PleaseBlitz

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Cooked Crack said:

Not even talking about internal polling. A bunch of right wing outfits flooded the zone with polls. These polls would get mixed in with aggregation making it look more dire for Democrats.

 

This is correct.  The "reputable" polls had a good cycle.  But some operatives figured out that if they released BS polls, the aggregators would ingest them just like the rest of the polls and would get skewed. The good poll aggregators, as a matter of faith, don't reject polls until they have a history of being wrong or have questionable methods, so they treated them just like they treat polls from established outlets.  

 

By and large the polls did what they are supposed to do.  Of course, people expect polls to predict outcomes, and for close races, that is not really a reasonable expectation.  

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LD0506

LD0506

Posted
Posted

IMO polling is struggling to function with an analog concept in a digital world. They have not adapted to technology or a more fractured and vocal populace. A LOT of voices that used to be just written off as noise in the numbers or part of the margin of error, particularly younger ones, have an effect out of proportion to their actual influence, and traditional polling hasn't found a way to factor that into their construct.

 

They could if they wanted to actually listen to some of those voices but that ain't gonna happen, we're trying to make a living selling polling here, we doan need no steenkin batches.

 

When a gap opens up between what you're selling and the actual expectations/results of what they bought, you generate an opportunity for someone else to build a better mousetrap, ie. develop better ways to actually gauge the fleeting feckless opinions that pass for belief these days.

 

I wish them well.

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