Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[KDawg]

19 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I think if I am the Jets I am definitely bailing on Darnold and going with Fields. Super easy call.

Not even a question.

[CommanderInTheRye]

15 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I think if I am the Jets I am definitely bailing on Darnold and going with Fields. Super easy call.

 

 

Which would leave Sam Darnold as the next item up for bids.

 

Rank speculation to follow:

 

The Jets will not want to send him to an AFC team and for local marketing and rivalry reasons they’d certainly love to hurt the Giants chances of winning another Super Bowl before they do.

 

That leaves a certain team with no name as a preferred destination, all offers being equal.

 

But first we need a capable GM to determine our off season targets and strategy.

[Thinking Skins]

With all this talk of Darnold, i won 3 what Mitch Tribusky will demand. I know he hasn't lived up to his draft status but he's doing exactly what we want our QB to do, for the most part, running the ball and letting his defense take over games. Is he a 20 mill guy or how much cheaper? Question is do the bears still want him and do other teams want him as a starter? 

[CommanderInTheRye]

32 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

With all this talk of Darnold, i won 3 what Mitch Tribusky will demand. I know he hasn't lived up to his draft status but he's doing exactly what we want our QB to do, for the most part, running the ball and letting his defense take over games. Is he a 20 mill guy or how much cheaper? Question is do the bears still want him and do other teams want him as a starter? 

 

 

He’s on my “possibilities” list as well.

[skinny21]

I think for me, looking at how this season has gone - this D, ground game and the combo of a top tier receiver along with a good TE and dangerous pass catching backs - we are a team no one wants to play... if/when we have a qb that can play complementary football.  

 

So that means two things to me

1). I’m kind of calm about our qb situation next year as I feel like Allen and Heincke (possibly, especially if he gets reps) can fit that bill.  They don’t have to be particularly good, they ‘just’ need to be game managers.  This also gives us a chance to develop a young guy.

2).  I’m not anxious to spend a chunk on a qb that doesn’t represent a clear upgrade to these two.  Even more so when we’re still going to be paying Haskins and Smith.

 

I don’t want to minimize Smith’s contributions though.  I just feel like he wasn’t pulling rabbits out of his hat.  We just need a guy that can move the sticks at times, get the ball to our guys on a fairly regular basis, and isn’t a turnover machine.

 

A third point, that doesn’t really fit above, is that I have this sense that non-first round qbs aren’t given much of a leash and this leads many teams to give up on them early.  See Allen and Heincke in Carolina.  Teams are searching for that franchise qb and are always moving on quickly from anyone that doesn’t have the pedigree.  A guy like Cousins getting the chances he did is pretty rare.  I know certain posters here have advocated churning through cheaper qbs, discarding them prior to their big payday (if they reach that point) and focus resources on keeping the team stocked.  I’m not saying I completely agree with this philosophy, but I do see the opportunity with this team and the way it is constructed.  We’ll have a better chance to keep our current guys and our window open if we aren’t devoting valuable assets to the qb position.  Not saying you don’t draft qbs high (if you love them), just avoid the big trade ups in the draft, and avoid the expensive FAs.

 

Anyway, kind of rambling now... suffice to say, I’m looking forward to seeing what the offseason brings. 

[CapsSkins]

23 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I think for me, looking at how this season has gone - this D, ground game and the combo of a top tier receiver along with a good TE and dangerous pass catching backs - we are a team no one wants to play... if/when we have a qb that can play complementary football.  

 

So that means two things to me

1). I’m kind of calm about our qb situation next year as I feel like Allen and Heincke (possibly, especially if he gets reps) can fit that bill.  They don’t have to be particularly good, they ‘just’ need to be game managers.  This also gives us a chance to develop a young guy.

2).  I’m not anxious to spend a chunk on a qb that doesn’t represent a clear upgrade to these two.  Even more so when we’re still going to be paying Haskins and Smith.

 

I don’t want to minimize Smith’s contributions though.  I just feel like he wasn’t pulling rabbits out of his hat.  We just need a guy that can move the sticks at times, get the ball to our guys on a fairly regular basis, and isn’t a turnover machine.

 

A third point, that doesn’t really fit above, is that I have this sense that non-first round qbs aren’t given much of a leash and this leads many teams to give up on them early.  See Allen and Heincke in Carolina.  Teams are searching for that franchise qb and are always moving on quickly from anyone that doesn’t have the pedigree.  A guy like Cousins getting the chances he did is pretty rare.  I know certain posters here have advocated churning through cheaper qbs, discarding them prior to their big payday (if they reach that point) and focus resources on keeping the team stocked.  I’m not saying I completely agree with this philosophy, but I do see the opportunity with this team and the way it is constructed.  We’ll have a better chance to keep our current guys and our window open if we aren’t devoting valuable assets to the qb position.  Not saying you don’t draft qbs high (if you love them), just avoid the big trade ups in the draft, and avoid the expensive FAs.

 

Anyway, kind of rambling now... suffice to say, I’m looking forward to seeing what the offseason brings. 

 

I'm increasingly feeling similarly. If Allen and Heinicke can manage the game and add a wrinkle of mobility which Alex can't, I think in an upgraded offense complementing our defense we've seen how successful that recipe can be. Just gotta make sure they don't turn the ball over. But I think this can be an 11-12 win team with Allen or Heinicke competently game-managing.

 

The problem is if our D has an off-game or can't keep the higher-powered offenses in the League in check. If you find yourself in a shootout, you're probably not enthused about Kyle Allen being the guy leading the charge out there.

[burgngold fan]

7 hours ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

I'm pretty sure this point is true. Smith has been great as a hard working, high character, team-first guy, but his play on the field really hasn't been great. His QBR is still one of the lowest in the NFL this season. He was only slightly better than Haskins in that regard. We would be in the same position now, or maybe even a game better, with a healthy Allen.

Really!  How many games did we when with Kyle Allen. Do believe even haskins won more games!  

[XxSpearheadxX]

1 hour ago, burgngold fan said:

Really!  How many games did we when with Kyle Allen. Do believe even haskins won more games!  

I mean he really didn't get a fair shake playing did he? The eye test ttold me he was running the offense very well before he got hurt. 

[mistertim]

7 hours ago, burgngold fan said:

Really!  How many games did we when with Kyle Allen. Do believe even haskins won more games!  

 

This basically proves his point. Number of wins is not a very good barometer overall of how good a QB is; that's a team stat. Smith may have a good record, but his actual play this year has been pretty mediocre, and his numbers themselves are poor.

 

@CapsSkinsmentioned us being an 11 or 12 win team with guys like Allen and Heinike, but I think to win that many games with a mediocre game manager QB you have to not only have a really good defense and solid run game but also a decent amount of luck.

 

Leaning on a pure game manager QB and a dominant defense usually ends up with lots of pretty close games (unless you have elite talent at WR and RB with guys who can take it to the house at any time and often do), and close games many times are won or lost with a lucky bounce, etc. This is why I don't see "game manager" QBs with good defenses as long term strategies. The teams that are perennial contenders over long periods of time all have good franchise QBs who can make things happen. Dominant defenses usually don't last for more than a couple of years before you lose some pieces for one reason or another.

 

I'm not against Smith, Allen, or Heinike being our starters next season...but I'd only want them to be starters in the event that we've drafted a young guy with high upside who we think could be the future but who probably needs some work to adjust to the NFL game (Trey Lance is the first guy to pop into my mind in that regard).

[KillBill26]

Darnold is intriguing.   He would go from an environment where he was brought into the biggest market to be the savior, to a team that's already a playoff team due to their solid defense.  He won't be asked to carry the team.  It would be a great situation to build him back up.  

 

As far as cost, darnold would have to cost a 1st, considering even rosen fetched a 2nd in 2019 based on potential alone.  That would be a high risk high reward scenario.  Not sure if we even need to go that path, a lower ceiling qb at a more modest price might be better for us at this point.  If we are giving up a 1st, my preference is stafford over darnold, bc stafford has a much higher floor.

[Skinsinparadise]

I dived into Darnold some yesterday.  If we are going to make fun of Daniel Jones for his turnover tendencies -- INTs and fumbles, we can't anymore if we had Darnold.

 

Darnold is a turnover machine.   He had 20 fumbles at USC.   That's crazy.   And 13 INTs his last season there.  Now I was curious if he conquered that problem in the NFL.  And the answer is a resounding, nope.  He has 11 fumbles last year.   He had 4 in a limited run this year.  15 INTs in the first season.  13 Ints in the 2nd.  This is with him not playing a full season.   9 ints in a limited sample this season.  I know the refrain for some is Tannehill was terrible too and look at him now.  That point isn't true.  It's hyperbole.  Tannehill was dissappointing but mostly put up average to good numbers, he wasn't putrid.  Darnold's best season ironically was under Gase, 2019. 

 

His career completion rate is under 60%.  QBR rating is putrid.  PFF score isn't good either. 

 

My concern about Daniel Jones before the draft would be his turnover gene would follow him right to the NFL and it has.  Ditto Darnold and big time so.   PFF has him just a hair above Haskins. 

 

If you want to manage a great defense, the reason why Alex fits is he doesn't do turnovers, you'd prefer a guy who doesn't turn over the ball a ton.  Darnold is a turnover machine.   I get why some guy at PFF thinks the Jets would be insane not to move on from him. 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

When you got polls like this running before the draft about Darnold, obviously turnovers is a concern.  Darnold with 20 fumbles in college (with the team losing most of the fumbles) and followed that in the pros with 20 fumbles too without him even playing a full season once.   Imagine if he had a full 16 game season?  

 

If the dude just fumbled the ball maybe that would be fine.  But he had INT issues both in college and the pros.   He averages 1 pick per game in his career.   That's a lot of giveaways to the other team.  We can blame Gase but he was like that the season before Gase coached him in the pros and he was like that in college.  So Gase is Darnold's issue IMO is wishful thinking. 

 

 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

That's Breer below.  I've heard multiple times from national reporters it will likely be a 2nd and change for Darnold.  If it were me, I think I'd be a hard no.  Darnold has a nice size, is young and has high intangibles. Also, I like for a big dude he can throw on the run/boots, etc.    But in today's NFL, if you can't even hit a 60% completion rate and you are a Daniel Jones level turnover machine -- I'd be reluctant to pay a big price for the dude. 

 

https://sny.tv/articles/what-the-jets-could-possibly-get-in-return-for-sam-darnold-should-they-move-on-from-the-quarterback

“There are a fair number of teams that really thought highly of Sam coming out in 2018 that might be willing to deal a second-round pick and maybe a day three pick for him or maybe even a late first-rounder.”

[mhd24]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

That's Breer below.  I've heard multiple times from national reporters it will likely be a 2nd and change for Darnold.  If it were me, I think I'd be a hard no.  Darnold has a nice size, is young and has high intangibles. Also, I like for a big dude he can throw on the run/boots, etc.    But in today's NFL, if you can't even hit a 60% completion rate and you are a Daniel Jones level turnover machine -- I'd be reluctant to pay a big price for the dude. 

 

https://sny.tv/articles/what-the-jets-could-possibly-get-in-return-for-sam-darnold-should-they-move-on-from-the-quarterback

“There are a fair number of teams that really thought highly of Sam coming out in 2018 that might be willing to deal a second-round pick and maybe a day three pick for him or maybe even a late first-rounder.”

Yup.  Most I'd go is one 3rd round pick.  Otherwise, just go after Dalton in FA if you want a vet stopgap who is relatively young.

[DefinitelyMaybe]

The more I think about it the more it boils down to two for me

 

If Draft, Zach Wilson (if possible), I anticipate we’ll be comfortably out of range for Wilson come late Sunday night, but if it’s possible the guy makes all the throws, but his movement in this scheme would give us a different dimension

 

If Free Agency, go into Dallas and rip out Dak, let’s pay the money, for similar reasons to Wilson above that movement in this offence would be crucial for us going forward and we’d actively be dressing down the Cowboys too which helps us twice a year

 

Either one will need weapons, who doesn’t but either of those two takes us to the next level imo

[Skinsinparadise]

13 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Yup.  Most I'd go is one 3rd round pick.  Otherwise, just go after Dalton in FA if you want a vet stopgap who is relatively young.

 

That's the most I'd do.  I haven't thought about Darnold in eons.  I never really studied him but I watched some of his USC games in real time and I liked his mobility for a big dude.  But diving into him some yesterday, wow.  I knew he had turnover issues but didn't realize how wide and deep that problem was.  He has had that issue for about 5 seasons now (college and pros).  That's a pattern. 

 

Completion rate isn't the be all and end all.  But he does abysmally in the adjusted completion stats from PFF, too.  Under 60% for his career is alarming to me.  It's actually typically easier to have high completion percentage in college yet Darnold's was just 63% his last season.

 

So accuracy and turnover concerns?  That's a lot for me to digest.  He's a big dude with good athleticism and young so maybe you can fix him but by the looks of things he needs some fixing. 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, DefinitelyMaybe said:

The more I think about it the more it boils down to two for me

 

If Draft, Zach Wilson (if possible), I anticipate we’ll be comfortably out of range for Wilson come late Sunday night, but if it’s possible the guy makes all the throws, but his movement in this scheme would give us a different dimension

 

If Free Agency, go into Dallas and rip out Dak, let’s pay the money, for similar reasons to Wilson above that movement in this offence would be crucial for us going forward and we’d actively be dressing down the Cowboys too which helps us twice a year

 

Either one will need weapons, who doesn’t but either of those two takes us to the next level imo

 

I think Fields is slam dunk going to the Jets now at #2.  That would mean Wilson would be the one who maybe is auctioned in a trade assuming a nonQB needy team picks #3.

 

 

 

[Est.1974]

If Rivera was giving a genuine assessment of Kyle Allen, saying we’d be in a similar position with him in at QB this season, then there is little chance we retain Smith on his existing deal in 2021. The contract won’t justify the marginal gain.

[CommanderInTheRye]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I dived into Darnold some yesterday.  If we are going to make fun of Daniel Jones for his turnover tendencies -- INTs and fumbles, we can't anymore if we had Darnold.

 

Darnold is a turnover machine.   He had 20 fumbles at USC.   That's crazy.   And 13 INTs his last season there.  Now I was curious if he conquered that problem in the NFL.  And the answer is a resounding, nope.  He has 11 fumbles last year.   He had 4 in a limited run this year.  15 INTs in the first season.  13 Ints in the 2nd.  This is with him not playing a full season.   9 ints in a limited sample this season.  I know the refrain for some is Tannehill was terrible too and look at him now.  That point isn't true.  It's hyperbole.  Tannehill was dissappointing but mostly put up average to good numbers, he wasn't putrid.  Darnold's best season ironically was under Gase, 2019. 

 

His career completion rate is under 60%.  QBR rating is putrid.  PFF score isn't good either. 

 

My concern about Daniel Jones before the draft would be his turnover gene would follow him right to the NFL and it has.  Ditto Darnold and big time so.   PFF has him just a hair above Haskins. 

 

If you want to manage a great defense, the reason why Alex fits is he doesn't do turnovers, you'd prefer a guy who doesn't turn over the ball a ton.  Darnold is a turnover machine.   I get why some guy at PFF thinks the Jets would be insane not to move on from him. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wow! Game, set and match. 

 

Facts reveal persistent unavoidable truths particularly when presented as efficiently as you have done.

 

One thing you can’t overcome is a propensity for turnovers. It is the absolute death knell for a team trying to win with an elite defense and a ball control (non-explosive) offense.

 

Call me officially off the Sam Darnold bandwagon.

 

 

 

Edited January 2, 2021 by TrancesWithWolves

[KDawg]

Darnold is... Darnold. Would I sign him to a low end flyer contract if he were a FA to compete and perhaps be a backup? 
 

I’d think about it at least.

 

But I wouldn’t want to trade for him.

[Est.1974]

I don’t get the Darnold talk, not sure Rivera will want that approach at QB.

 

More likely to be safe, established veteran, his own Rookie project, Kyle Allen the safety net.

[DefinitelyMaybe]

3 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I don’t get the Darnold talk, not sure Rivera will want that approach at QB.

 

More likely to be safe, established veteran, his own Rookie project, Kyle Allen the safety net.

This is it, I highly doubt Ron will want somebody whose had a couple of average years (albeit in a disfunctional organisation) to hang his hat on

 

The next QB is crucial, get it right paired with this defence Washington could be back in the mix year in year out for play off football. Would you gamble that on Sam Darnold?

[Simmsy]

6 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I don’t get the Darnold talk, not sure Rivera will want that approach at QB.

 

More likely to be safe, established veteran, his own Rookie project, Kyle Allen the safety net.

I don't get it either, Darnold, Rivers, Stafford, Goff, etc. Where are you guys getting these names from? Turrible, just turrible...

[CommanderInTheRye]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

... He's a big dude with good athleticism and young so maybe you can fix him but by the looks of things he needs some fixing. 

 

 

Fresh coat of paint, new engine, some brakes, new suspension, 4 tires, a radiator, rebuilt transmission, steering wheel and a few mostly minor adjustments here and there and she’ll be good as new!

 

 

[KDawg]

16 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I don’t get the Darnold talk, not sure Rivera will want that approach at QB.

 

More likely to be safe, established veteran, his own Rookie project, Kyle Allen the safety net.

This is what I’m saying as well. Why go after an unproven commodity that is essentially similar to what’s already on roster without the familiarity or continuity.

 

It doesn’t make much sense.