Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[KillBill26]

11 minutes ago, KDawg said:

RE: Stafford- cost is important to note. If it’s anything more than one draft choice in the first two days of the draft it’s too much. He’s an excellent player but his injuries are happening. He plays through them but he has been REALLY banged up. And when you play through that stuff your body wears down. Stafford could be nearing the end despite him being younger. He’s taken a hellacious beating. Taking on that cap and trading too much is setting ourselves up for failure.

I hear ya, that was my mentality for the last couple months as this topic has been discussed.  You summed up my concerns perfectly.  But if the FO / medical team does their research and feel good about the medical side of things, I think MS might be our best option.

 

As this year has proven, our defense alone will carry us to enough wins that we can expect a top pick anymore.  So if we are picking middle of the 1st, any qb we take will be a significant question mark.  And as I mentioned, by the time it's proven to not have worked out, our window will be closing.  Do you really want to put all our chips in on a second tier qb prospect?  And if you want to top tier qb prospect, you have to give up significant draft capital, which also goes against your desire to heavily consider cost.

 

No situation is fool proof or without cost.  I just feel if we could get stafford for 19 overall, I think that might be the skins best option at qb moving forward, all things considered.  (Obviously i would start negotiations with later picks or 2022 1st rounder, but I'm using 2021 19 overall as my final offer, I wouldnt give more than that unless it took a late day 3 pick to make it happen).

Edited December 29, 2020 by KillBill26

[mistertim]

11 minutes ago, KDawg said:

RE: Stafford- cost is important to note. If it’s anything more than one draft choice in the first two days of the draft it’s too much. He’s an excellent player but his injuries are happening. He plays through them but he has been REALLY banged up. And when you play through that stuff your body wears down. Stafford could be nearing the end despite him being younger. He’s taken a hellacious beating. Taking on that cap and trading too much is setting ourselves up for failure.

 

I’d look at a move for Stafford at a high cost (definition provided above) as a front office blunder. Others feel differently, and that is fair. He is a hell of a player. 
 

But I’m not interested in self sabotage.

 

It's a fair point about Stafford re: wear and tear over time. I suppose that would just have to be factored into it how much a team feels he's worth. 

 

I wouldn't be all that surprised if the Lions test the waters to see what teams might be willing to give up and then just stick with Stafford as their QB if they don't think anyone will meet their price. Just curious what that price will be.

 

I think he'd be a big time upgrade at QB. He's tough as hell and is a playmaker with elite level talent. But I also wouldn't want to give up the farm for him. If it's this years 1st I'm probably tempted, depending on how I feel about his overall health projections and what QBs I think will be available to me in the draft. If it's any more then I'd probably pass.

Edited December 29, 2020 by mistertim

[Est.1974]

Stafford is a high quality QB. I worry he might hit the injury wall soon. Smith isn’t going to cut it for a full season, can’t see it. Allen is a very good #2 is context around the league. I think a rookie QB and placeholder vet is the way forward. Could Kyle Allen be good enough as a placeholder vet, that is my concern???
 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by UK SKINS FAN 74

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I think the answer is trade up for Lance, cost being determined by whether we win the division or not. High ceiling, in fact very high ceiling. Go for it, spend that cap space wisely first.

 

I like Lance but I wouldn't trade up for him. For me his small sample size combined with coming from a small school and being a running QB = super high risk and probably a guy who will need time before he's ready to play.

 

How likely do we really think it would be that this team would give up picks to move up for a guy in the 1st round and then let him sit for a season? I'd like to think Rivera would be smart about it but will Danny really go for it? How much pressure would Rivera be under to start him too soon?

Edited December 29, 2020 by mistertim

[KDawg]

13 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

Stafford doesn’t have much of an injury history before this year though. Rated “most durable” by this site. https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/matthew-stafford/2

I’m not talking about missing time. He plays. But that’s what I’m concerned with. Dude gets hurt, plays through it (a good thing if you’re a Lions fan for the first 12 years of his career, I’d love to have that here) and accumulates wear and tear. I’m not worried about some freak injuries with him. I’m worried about the ones he’s had catching up and the cost we’d need to pay to acquire him setting up back 3 years. And consequently out of our window. 

 

12 minutes ago, KillBill26 said:

I hear ya, that was my mentality for the last couple months as this topic has been discussed.  You summed up my concerns perfectly.  But if the FO / medical team does their research and feel good about the medical side of things, I think MS might be our best option.

 

As this year has proven, our defense alone will carry us to enough wins that we can expect a top pick anymore.  So if we are picking middle of the 1st, any qb we take will be a significant question mark.  And as I mentioned, by the time it's proven to not have worked out, our window will be closing.  Do you really want to put all our chips in on a second tier qb prospect?  And if you want to top tier qb prospect, you have to give up significant draft capital, which also goes against your desire to heavily consider cost.

 

No situation is fool proof or without cost.  I just feel if we could get stafford for 19 overall, I think that might be the skins best option at qb moving forward, all things considered.  (Obviously i would start negotiations with later picks or 2022 1st rounder, but I'm using 2021 19 overall as my final offer, I wouldnt give more than that unless it took a late day 3 pick to make it happen).

I’d argue that by shoring up the offense and defense as much as we can now, with smart contracts, a middle of the road guy improves this team tenfold next season. But we need to do quite a bit of work for this to be workable. We are set to lose a good portion of the players who are helping make the wheels spin this year in FA if we don’t re-up them. 
 

I don’t think this is the year we bank on. I think 2022 is. 
 

I’m not saying we CAN’T get it done this year, but if we do I don’t think we need an elite QB to do it. 
 

Next year is the year I’d aim to push for that QB. Year 3. Rivera’s guys in place. Culture fully implemented. Winning culture established. 

 

11 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

It's a fair point about Stafford re: wear and tear over time. I suppose that would just have to be factored into it how much a team feels he's worth. 

 

I wouldn't be all that surprised if the Lions test the waters to see what teams might be willing to give up and then just stick with Stafford as their QB if they don't think anyone will meet their price. Just curious what that price will be.

 

I think he'd be a big time upgrade at QB. He's tough as hell and is a playmaker with elite level talent. But I also wouldn't want to give up the farm for him. If it's this years 1st I'm probably tempted, depending on how I feel about his overall health projections and what QBs I think will be available to me in the draft. If it's any more then I'd probably pass.

I’m pretty close to you here. Almost to a word.

 

9 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Stafford is a high quality QB. I worry he might hit the injury wall soon. Smith isn’t going to cut it for a full season, can’t see it. Allen is a very good #2 is context around the league. I think a rookie QB and placeholder vet is the way forward. Could Kyle Allen be good enough as a placeholder vet, that is my concern???
 

 

I agree with you.

Edited December 29, 2020 by KDawg

[TheGoodBits]

6 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Stafford is a high quality QB. I worry he might hit the injury wall soon. Smith isn’t going to cut it for a full season, can’t see it. Allen is a very good #2 is context around the league. I think a rookie QB and placeholder vet is the way forward. Could Kyle Allen be good enough as a placeholder vet, that is my concern???
 

 

No. The team is very close to being very competitive and honestly QB is the biggest area for improvement we need. Stafford could very well put us in 12-13 win territory next year. Allen? There’s probably at least a 3 win drop off IF he plays well. 

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I think the answer is trade up for Lance, cost being determined by whether we win the division or not. High ceiling, in fact very high ceiling. Go for it, spend that cap space wisely first.

 

If we lose this Sunday (not that I am rooting for that to happen) it would be a game changer as to the draft.  A month or so ago, i was obsessed with getting a QB in this draft.  Now I am more about a veteran.  It's not that my mind changed as to what's ideal.  It's that i think picking 19 and later is a game changer as to the approach. 

[Darrell Green Fan]

36 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

People are suggesting retreads because there's a feeling of..."you know what you're gonna get with this guy"

 

I think everyone around here is tired of taking stabs in the dark with college quarterbacks, especially after the Haskins flameout.  

 

That's like opening a can of creamed corn because you know what you are going to get.  We already know Tyrod Taylor will never be the long term answer, this makes zero sense.  

[kingdaddy]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

Eh, our Turkey Day route was mostly us gashing them on the ground with Gibson. Smith didn't do all that much. 149 yards passing with 1 TD and 1 INT.

 

Don't get me wrong...the offense clearly ran more smoothly when it was someone other than Haskins behind center, but let's not pretend like any of our other QBs are game changers.

I am trying to point out how horrible Dwayne was and that we are a betrer team with anyone else at QB. Its reason for optimism heading into Sunday.

[CapsSkins]

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I don’t think this is the year we bank on. I think 2022 is. 
 

I’m not saying we CAN’T get it done this year, but if we do I don’t think we need an elite QB to do it. 
 

Next year is the year I’d aim to push for that QB. Year 3. Rivera’s guys in place. Culture fully implemented. Winning culture established. 

 

If you think 2022 is the year, then you want your 2022 QB starting 2021 so he has a year to master the system, gel with receivers, and build trust w/ the coaches & play-callers. Another reason you go for the vet. I think it's much harder to contend when it's your starting QB's first year on board.

[KDawg]

Just now, CapsSkins said:

 

If you think 2022 is the year, then you want your 2022 QB starting 2021 so he has a year to master the system, gel with receivers, and build trust w/ the coaches & play-callers. Another reason you go for the vet. I think it's much harder to contend when it's your starting QB's first year on board.

You’re absolutely right I do.

 

And it’s not Stafford. It’s a rookie.

 

I don’t know if we’ll be able to get it done or should, though.

[kingdaddy]

39 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah the Cam thing has always been a bit perplexing to me. That's especially true now that he's flamed out in NE.

 

Outside of 1 season he's never been anything more than a completely mediocre NFL passer. His biggest weapon was his threat to use his legs and that isn't much of a factor anymore it seems. He's forced to rely on his arm now and he basically sucks at it.

 

The fact that Rivera likely could have had him if he wanted him and instead chose to give up a draft pick for a UDFA from Carolina speaks volumes IMO. 

 

 

I do get the theory here, but in reality what this means is we'll likely just have a team full of backup QBs. 

 

Again.

Imo, we need a vet who the players believe in and who RR trusts as a leader who won't break the bank or cost us our 1st or 2nd round pick. Not many of these options out there in free agency. Could come down to  Rivers, Dalton, Newton, Fitzmagic, etc...a vet placeholder who can help the team learn how to win while we groom a rookie or Montez. Maybe even Allen fits this description in the coaches minds?

After this season I believe RR is gonna be hell bent on getting a stable placeholder who he trusts thru free agency before focusing on the draft and whats available. 

[CapsSkins]

16 minutes ago, KDawg said:

You’re absolutely right I do.

 

And it’s not Stafford. It’s a rookie.

 

I don’t know if we’ll be able to get it done or should, though.

 

I see the logic but think rookies are just too risky. Get someone you know is good enough and give them a year to learn the system. De-risked investment. Even if it's a second tier guy like Carr or an older guy like Ryan over Stafford. I'm firmly in the Vet camp, though. That way depending on the draft board, maybe you have a rookie who might surprise you on the field a la Herbert, but from a planning standpoint you have your Vet you intend to make a SB run with locked in for the next 3 years. Strongly believe you should not plan on that QB being a 2021 rookie.

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by CapsSkins

[KillBill26]

16 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

If you think 2022 is the year, then you want your 2022 QB starting 2021 so he has a year to master the system, gel with receivers, and build trust w/ the coaches & play-callers. Another reason you go for the vet. I think it's much harder to contend when it's your starting QB's first year on board.

Agreed, and if you know you have a 5 year window, it's tough to say "let's not address qb this year, let's wait til next year to figure it out". You are basically choosing to flush a year down the toilet, delaying the qb getting acclimated, and banking on there being qb options that are just as good or better the following off-season. 

[FrFan]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

I do like the optimism, but the "hidden gem" late round QB is super unlikely statistically. For every mid to late round QB who ends up becoming an NFL starter (not even a good one, just a starter) there are probably about 30 who do nothing. I'm fine with rolling the dice on high upside guys later in the draft, but assuming that it's going to net us anything other than a potential backup at best is a fool's errand IMO.

 

Much more likely to find a starting OL in mid to late rounds than starting QB.

We had Rypien 6th for a short time, and Theismann 4th (Dolphins) , but you're right the odds to select a reliable QB are slim to none considering how much we suck at this task.

I would pass on the QB this year, I think we're not that bad with Allen, Smith and Heineke for one more year, I wouldn't like to sell the farm again for a QB that would become another bust on the list. I hope we can draft a good OT and G to avoid the beating they took this year

Edited December 29, 2020 by FrFan

[justice98]

Isn't this big name veteran stuff all moot if Alex Smith doesn't retire?  At least in terms of discussing names with existing contracts like Stafford or Ryan. The options would be limited to a Tyrod Taylor/Jacoby Brissett type with a low end price tag.  Or are you just gonna cut Smith and eat the $11mil in dead cap? 

[KillBill26]

29 minutes ago, KDawg said:

And it’s not Stafford. It’s a rookie.

In the past few years, here are the qbs taken at 19 or later in the first few rounds of the draft

 

2020 - jordan love, jalen hurts

2019 - drew lock, will grier

2018 - lamar jackson, mason Rudolph

2017 - deshone kizer, davis webb, cj beathard

2016 - paxton lynch, christian hackenburg, jacoby brissett, cody kessler

 

Lamar jackson is awesome, no doubt, but obviously an outlier.  Look at the rest of the names, these are the caliber guys we are going to put our title hopes on during our short 5 year window?

 

I agree with you on the cons of acquiring stafford.  I just disagree with you on 1. putting off the qb decision and 2. relying on the draft for our qb, knowing we aren't drafting high due to our defense carrying us to at least a respectable record.  The odds are high that we are going to end up with a Jo Schmo.  I'd rather pin my hopes on Stafford.  

Edited December 29, 2020 by KillBill26

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, KillBill26 said:

In the past few years, here are the qbs taken at 19 or later in the first few rounds of the draft

 

2020 - jordan love, jalen hurts

2019 - drew lock, will grier

2018 - lamar jackson, mason Rudolph

2017 - deshone mixer, davis webb, cj beathard

2016 - paxton lynch, christian hackenburg, jacoby brissett, cody kessler

 

Lamar jackson is awesome, no doubt, but obviously an outlier.  Look at the rest of the names, these are the caliber guys we are going to put our title hopes on during our short 5 year window?

 

I agree with you on the cons of acquiring stafford.  I just disagree with you on 1. putting off the qb decision and 2. relying on the draft for our qb, knowing we aren't drafting high due to our defense carrying us to at least a respectable record.  We are going to end up with a Jo Schmo.  I'd rather pin my hopes on Stafford.  

I’m not saying put off the QB decision.

 

I’m saying don’t overpay for a dude now where you can’t afford/have the assets to round out the roster. 
 

I’m also saying that you CANNOT reach. It is franchise ruining to do so.

[KillBill26]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I’m also saying that you CANNOT reach. It is franchise ruining to do so.

Agreed on how reaching for a qb can be devastating, but if it's decided to go after qb in 2022 as you mentioned earlier, and we just had a 2021 with similar qb shortcomings, then we enter the 2022 draft feeling we absolutely have to take a qb early.  If our pick is up, and there is no qb worthy of the pick, you have to choose between reaching or not addressing qb for another year, and the window continues to close.

[tomwvr]

41 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

If you think 2022 is the year, then you want your 2022 QB starting 2021 so he has a year to master the system, gel with receivers, and build trust w/ the coaches & play-callers. Another reason you go for the vet. I think it's much harder to contend when it's your starting QB's first year on board.

 

41 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

If you think 2022 is the year, then you want your 2022 QB starting 2021 so he has a year to master the system, gel with receivers, and build trust w/ the coaches & play-callers. Another reason you go for the vet. I think it's much harder to contend when it's your starting QB's first year on board.

The team can  not use a 1st 2nd or 3rd this season to trade for or draft a qb.

we need a tackle, a guard and a middle line backer .

Any competent  qb will be able to take this team 2 games into the  playoffs . 
we chose to go defense to win a title we will not have a shot at a game changer at qb and have to win with defense

[KDawg]

11 minutes ago, KillBill26 said:

Agreed on how reaching for a qb can be devastating, but if it's decided to go after qb in 2022 as you mentioned earlier, and we just had a 2021 with similar qb shortcomings, then we enter the 2022 draft feeling we absolutely have to take a qb early.  If our pick is up, and there is no qb worthy of the pick, you have to choose between reaching or not addressing qb for another year, and the window continues to close.

You’re misinterpreting what I’m saying. Though it’s likely due to me not explaining it properly.

 

I think our window begins in 2022. That’s the ideal time we have our QB. But if he come around this offseason, that’s ideal. If he doesn’t and then again doesn’t next year, then he doesn’t. Continue to stock the cupboard, cover for expiring contracts, re-up who you have to and when the best opportunity to get your guy is available... strike. The quarterback game is a game of patience and waiting for what comes to you. 
 

It’s not a game of spray and pray. 
 

The Packers got Favre. Then Rodgers basically fell in their laps. 
 

The Chiefs had Smith, who was doing well, then felt strongly about Mahomes and moved up and got their guy. 
 

The Patriots had Brady and had Garrapolo (this didn’t work out, but this was a Kraft interference move and you can bet Belichick is still pissed about that).

 

Cowboys had Romo and Dak fell in their lap. 
 

The key is to keep your roster in good shape and strike when the iron is hot and a guy you love. 
 

Not love the idea of. But a guy you genuinely think you can build around and WANT to build around. Josh Allen comes to mind. 
 

I am VERY against grabbing a QB just because you like them and they are available. If it ain’t love, don’t do it. Unless it’s for a season or two fling and you’re both open and honest about it.

 

When we chose Chase Young over the QBs last year we chose our path. To win with a good QB but not a great one and build around the D. 
 

I stock the cupboard with a running game and even stronger D, grab a QB I like and is available for cheap and won’t hinder forward progression and make the best run I can if I can’t get the rookie QB or a vet I love doesn’t become available.

Edited December 29, 2020 by KDawg

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

No. The team is very close to being very competitive and honestly QB is the biggest area for improvement we need. Stafford could very well put us in 12-13 win territory next year. Allen? There’s probably at least a 3 win drop off IF he plays well. 

I agree the is team is very close to be being competitive.

 

It is also very close to being dog ****.

 

Fine margins. 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I agree the is team is very close to be being competitive.

 

It is also very close to being dog ****.

 

Fine margins. 

And we have a few key free agents that could stem the tide with one or two guys let go that shouldn’t be or one or two guys signed that shouldn’t be.

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

If we lose this Sunday (not that I am rooting for that to happen) it would be a game changer as to the draft.  A month or so ago, i was obsessed with getting a QB in this draft.  Now I am more about a veteran.  It's not that my mind changed as to what's ideal.  It's that i think picking 19 and later is a game changer as to the approach. 

I think we should draft a QB. I’d rather get a **** QB that’s the next Josh Doctson or whatever, we have picks and cap space. We need a QB for the long term.

 

This year we have started Haskins, Allen, Smith, then some guy named after a beer is the saviour.

 

I don’t care if we sign a FA QB and draft one. We need continuity.

Edited December 29, 2020 by UK SKINS FAN 74

[Sellersfan]

Has anyone figured out how much of a cap hit an expensive vet QB is going to cost us?

If we were to go with a Stafford, we are definitely letting Alex go, plus paying for Haskins hit. That has to represent a serious chunk of change for the QB position ($40-$50M?).

 

Likewise, trading Stafford is going to be a $19-$24M hit to the cap for Detroit. Next year it drops to under $10M. Would it not be best for Detroit to hold Stafford 1 more year? New GM and HC can come in and see what they have on the roster. Do they really want to start with a new QB too? They are in a perfect spot to get a Zach Wilson or Trey Lance and let him sit behind Stafford for a year, and then the full re-build starts.

 

I am far from an expert on the salary cap implications so please correct me if I'm not seeing this correctly.