Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[bakedtater1]

Dak followed than unfollowed the wft on Instagram?..hmmmm

[Malapropismic Depository]

1 hour ago, bakedtater1 said:

Dak followed than unfollowed the wft on Instagram?..hmmmm

 

I would unfollow WFT too...

if I was on another NFL team - and initially followed WFT - which was then followed by 800,000 people exclaiming,

 

"Dak followed wft !!!"

"Dak followed wft !!!"

"Dak followed wft !!!"

"Dak followed wft !!!"

"Dak followed wft !!!"

...

Edited February 10, 2021 by Malapropismic Depository

[FootballZombie]

Dak knows full well what he did/doing.

 

He is just flexing on Dallas. Strong-arming them to get what he wants. Has nothing to do with us. That is all.

 

 

[Burgundy Yoda]

I forgot all about Minshew. I'd be on board honestly, hear me out.

 

Jaguars have been gutting their team, and the guy put up 2259 yards, 16 TDs and 5 ints in just 9 games (over a full season that's about 4000 yards, 30 TDs and 9 ints on a terrible team). He was clearly not the problem, they had no defense at all. Jacksonville also pretty much found every excuse not to play him down the stretch so they could get Lawrence. Minshew probably would have won them another game or two taking them out of the Lawrence sweepstakes. 

 

He got a bad deal in Jacksonville. I dont think his throw power is very good, but he's pretty accurate and has good ball placement. He has enough wiggle to be a successful QB in this era too IMO. 

 

Can't be cheap these days with QBs so I'd probably toss a 3rd towards Jacksonville. I view Minshew as a legitimate NFL starter with limited upside, but he's considered an ultimate competitor (like our boy Heinicke, we need guys like this). We should trade for Minshew and have an open competition between Minshew, Allen, and Heinicke and may the best QB win. 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[Stefanskins]

1 hour ago, bakedtater1 said:

Dak followed than unfollowed the wft on Instagram?..hmmmm

eh...hes a cowboy...and will always be...to me...

Edited February 10, 2021 by Stefanskins
me...

[UK Skins]

So Wilson got brought up and noone is talking about him! If he was traded are we looking at more or less than for Watson? Watson's got age on his side but Wilson is a proven winner. Any thoughts please?

[Burgundy Yoda]

4 minutes ago, UK Skins said:

So Wilson got brought up and noone is talking about him! If he was traded are we looking at more or less than for Watson? Watson's got age on his side but Wilson is a proven winner. Any thoughts please?

I don't view Wilson as even remotely available tbh. Watson should garner more because he's only 25 and can guarantee you probably another 8-10 years of good QB play.

[bakedtater1]

I'd love for wilson to.come here..absolutely love the way he plays

[KillBill26]

@Burgundy Yoda minshew did a decent job with jax, especially at first, but then he seemed to struggle.  I know he was in the doghouse for not being honest about a hand injury.  Maybe that contributed to his struggles?  Also, I wonder how much of those stats were a result of loose defenses bc jax was already down a lot and they had to throw to catch up, and defenses gave up everything in front of them.

 

And while I don't dislike minshew, he seems very similar to TH and KA, in the sense that they seem to be backup types with higher floor / limited ceiling (maybe TH can prove us wrong on that).  It would be nice if our 3rd qb has a bit higher of a ceiling.  I'm hesitant to part with a midround pick for a guy who could very well prove to be the 3rd best veteran on our team, and therefore would be the first one let go if we have a rookie we like fall into our laps.  But then again, maybe minshew comes in, has a strong camp, and proves to be our best option at qb.  Who knows.  If we feel he is head and shoulders above Kyle Allen, and the asking price is palatable, seems like a good move.

 

There seems to be a very fine line in 2021 between starting qb for WFT and not even making the opening day roster.  

[Est.1974]

38 minutes ago, bakedtater1 said:

I'd love for wilson to.come here..absolutely love the way he plays

can’t see him getting more say in front office decisions here either, so likely won’t be any good for him.....

44 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I don't view Wilson as even remotely available tbh. Watson should garner more because he's only 25 and can guarantee you probably another 8-10 years of good QB play.

agreed, the fact Watson probably gets you a decade of franchise QB play should make the price more palatable.

[Burgundy Yoda]

36 minutes ago, KillBill26 said:

@Burgundy Yoda minshew did a decent job with jax, especially at first, but then he seemed to struggle.  I know he was in the doghouse for not being honest about a hand injury.  Maybe that contributed to his struggles?  Also, I wonder how much of those stats were a result of loose defenses bc jax was already down a lot and they had to throw to catch up, and defenses gave up everything in front of them.

 

And while I don't dislike minshew, he seems very similar to TH and KA, in the sense that they seem to be backup types with higher floor / limited ceiling (maybe TH can prove us wrong on that).  It would be nice if our 3rd qb has a bit higher of a ceiling.  I'm hesitant to part with a midround pick for a guy who could very well prove to be the 3rd best veteran on our team, and therefore would be the first one let go if we have a rookie we like fall into our laps.  But then again, maybe minshew comes in, has a strong camp, and proves to be our best option at qb.  Who knows.  If we feel he is head and shoulders above Kyle Allen, and the asking price is palatable, seems like a good move.

 

There seems to be a very fine line in 2021 between starting qb for WFT and not even making the opening day roster.  

I think his big limitation from what I've seen is his arm strength is bottom tier. Windows close fast when he throws because the ball just takes longer to get to the spot. Can you improve arm strength when throwing the football? I honestly have no clue. It seems like Brady's arm got better and better over time so maybe it can be done. 

 

I look at Minshews struggles and still see that as better QB play than what Allen did with the Panthers and briefly with us and it could have been the injury that held him back. 

 

I get that a mid round pick may seem like a lot to give up, but he's been more productive than Allen who we gave up a 5th for and plus you have to get Jacksonville to agree and think the trade is worth it for them. I would take the gamble on him but I can definitely see the view that he's redundant on this roster. 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[UK Skins]

29 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

agreed, the fact Watson probably gets you a decade of franchise QB play should make the price more palatable.

 

Yes but if Houston want the equivalent of five 1sts and Seattle only two or three then you've got a decision to make. He's only 32 seemingly.

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, UK Skins said:

 

Yes but if Houston want the equivalent of five 1sts and Seattle only two or three then you've got a decision to make. He's only 32 seemingly.

Neither of those are realistic options. 

[UK Skins]

We are talking two 1sts to move up to 7th in the draft. Wouldn't we rather have Wilson than Lance?

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, UK Skins said:

We are talking two 1sts to move up to 7th in the draft. Wouldn't we rather have Wilson than Lance?

I wouldn’t, no. 
 

From a play standpoint you have to think Wilson will give a more immediate chance to win. He’s a very good QB and has a sample size to prove it.

 

But he’s also vocal in some ways and he just alienated his teammates on the radio. 
 

A rookie doesn’t have the pedigree, but also doesn’t have the baggage.

 

If you’re asking if I’d take Wilson over our current guys? The answer is yes. Wilson over Watson? Yes. Cheaper. Excellent quality. 
 

Wilson over Carr, Mariota, Darnold (  ), Stafford - yes, yes, yes, yes.

 

Wilson over Lawrence (not happening), Fields, Lance or... uhh... Wilson...? No, no, no and no. 

[Est.1974]

10 minutes ago, UK Skins said:

We are talking two 1sts to move up to 7th in the draft. Wouldn't we rather have Wilson than Lance?

No from me too. Although I’m also strongly against trading away a 2022 first rounder to move up in the draft as well. 

[FootballZombie]

Never gonna happen but if the hypothetical question is whether you take the 4th best QB in the draft or R. Wilson at the same draft pick investment cost, anyone who chooses the young guy is crazy. Darn the baggage and lost cap space.

 

Wilson is a HOF QB.

He has already proven he can get you a SB

You hope beyond hope anyone from this draft even sniffs what Wilson currently is.

 

By the time Lance is good enough, if he is ever good enough, to even think about winning a title, you could already have one with Wilson, and at his age, you can expect to get a few more.

 

If the argument was for a fringe established QB, who you are not sure can get you where you want to go, I can see bringing in the rook. If you are looking at the rookie who is an elite prospect, (Trev) I can see that direction as well. If you are looking at a vet QB who is breaking down, sure. But to even compare the 4th best QB prospect, who probably should not even start day 1 due to being raw, to the guy who was in the MVP convo this season and think you can come out ahead is like seven bridges too far.

 

People on here think they are playing 4D chess when they are pushing around checkers pieces. Madness.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, UK Skins said:

We are talking two 1sts to move up to 7th in the draft. Wouldn't we rather have Wilson than Lance?

 

Wilson  Heck yes for me. But I think he likely goes #2.  Wilson's arm is sick.  He can run, too.  He's spiderman level elusive in the pocket -- sick highlights at times as for throwing off platform.  Lance has really good upside, I like him.   But Wilson IMO > Lance. 

 

Lance has great upside but Wilson is much more polished right now and Wilson has his own IMO sick upside.   My fear with Wilson is injuries because he plays with somewhat reckless abandon at times sort of like Heinicke where he's not afraid to take a hit whjen he should be.  Lance has some of that in him, too though but not as reckless.  

 

For me its Wilson-Fields a peg higher than Lance.  As for who I like better Wilson or Fields, it keeps changing but they are close to me.  I suspect Fields is the more likely of the two of them to drop.  But who knows?

 

 

 

 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[KillBill26]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Wilson  Heck yes for me. But I think he likely goes #2.  Wilson's arm is sick.  He can run, too.  He's spiderman level elusive in the pocket -- sick highlights at times as for throwing off platform.  Lance has really good upside, I like him.   But Wilson IMO > Lance. 

 

Lance has great upside but Wilson is much more polished right now and Wilson has his own IMO sick upside.   My fear with Wilson is injuries because he plays with somewhat reckless abandon at times sort of like Heinicke where he's not afraid to take a hit whjen he should be.  Lance has some of that in him, too though but not as reckless.  

 

For me its Wilson-Fields a peg higher than Lance.  As for who I like better Wilson or Fields, it keeps changing but they are close to me.  I suspect Fields is the more likely of the two of them to drop.  But who knows?

 

 

 

 

They are debating russell wilson vs lance,not Zach wilson.  I made the same mistake first time I read it.

[DWinzit]

21 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

People talk about how unlikely it is that a lower round QB is to be good, but what if we had a Parcells like formula for drafting lower round QBs based on their college stats (he also had height requirements) but lets just look at who was drafted and simply question if they should have been based on the requirement. 

 

There are a few things we look at in terms of a QB - experience, accuracy, arm strength and mobility are 4 that stand out. So what can we use to measure that? I'd say that we could do this with a simple thing like attempts, completion percentage, yards per attempt and yards per run. This definitely won't beat the hard nose video review of players but I wanted to play and see how well I would have drafted these low round QBs had I done this? 

 

I'll list some players and a tuple att, comp%, ypa, ypc and my basic hunch is something like att > 600, comp% > 65, ypa > 8.0, ypc > 2.5). For (high) first rounders I'd probably be stricter on these and for lower rounds I may relax more. 

 

2016, 1, 1, LAR, Jared Goff, , 1568, 62.3, 7.8, -0.7 (not mobile enough)
2016, 1, 2, PHI, Carson Wentz, , 612, 64.1, 8.4, 4.8
2016, 1, 26, DEN, Paxton Lynch, , 1205, 62.9, 7.4, 2.4 (not enough ypa)
2016, 2, 51, NYJ, Christian Hackenberg, , 1235, 56.1, 6.8, -1.2
2016, 3, 91, NWE, Jacoby Brissett, , 839, 59.5, 6.8, 3.2 (mobile third rounder who need to throw it deeper in the pros)
2016, 3, 93, CLE, Cody Kessler, , 1261, 67.5, 8.2, -2.7 (might take him if its a lower pick but the lack of mobility scares me)
2016, 4, 100, OAK, Connor Cook, , 1170, 57.5, 7.9, 1.2
2016, 4, 135, DAL, Dak Prescott, , 1169, 62.8, 8, 4.7
2016, 4, 139, BUF, Cardale Jones, , 269, 61.7, 8.6, 4
2016, 5, 162, KAN, Kevin Hogan, , 1103, 65.9, 8.5, 4 
2016, 6, 187, WAS, Nate Sudfeld, , 983, 60.3, 8, 1 (not enough mobility for a higher pick but all the ingredients for a low rounder)
2016, 6, 191, DET, Jake Rudock, , 1080, 61.7, 7.3, 2.9 (I question his ypa but for a 6th I'd take a swing)
2016, 6, 201, JAX, Brandon Allen, , 1016, 57.4, 7.3, 1 (His completion percentage with 1000+ attempts seems like its probably not going to get much higher). 
2016, 6, 207, SFO, Jeff Driskel, , 1000, 60.7, 7.4, 3.1 (Like Rudock, I'd take a swing)
2016, 7, 223, MIA, Brandon Doughty, , 1491, 68.6, 8.6, -2.8 (I question his mobility)

 

This is interesting because none of the lower round QBs had mobility. And I'm not sure how to read the negative rushing stats for a QB (does that mean sacks) but it seems like some of these guys would be statues in the pocket. 

 

2019, 1, 1, ARI, Kyler Murray, , 519, 67.4, 10.4, 7.1 (like Lamar, you can see the stuff in the numbers but unlike Lamar he doesn't have the experiecne. But he does have the accuracy. I could see the argument for the pick just based on his mobility being such a game changer)
2019, 1, 6, NYG, Daniel Jones, , 1275, 59.9, 6.4, 3.3 (YPC is too low)
2019, 1, 15, WAS, Dwayne Haskins, , 590, 70, 9.1, 1.9
2019, 2, 42, DEN, Drew Lock, , 1553, 56.9, 7.9, 2.2
2019, 3, 100, CAR, Will Grier, , 945, 65.7, 9.1, 1
2019, 4, 104, CIN, Ryan Finley, , 1461, 64.2, 7.6, 1.8
2019, 4, 133, NWE, Jarrett Stidham, , 848, 64.3, 8.5, 1.1
2019, 5, 166, LAC, Easton Stick, , , , ,  (no stats)
2019, 5, 167, PHI, Clayton Thorson, , 1696, 58.4, 6.3, 1.1
2019, 6, 178, JAX, Gardner Minshew II, , 1168, 65.2, 7.1, 0.4
2019, 6, 197, BAL, Trace McSorley, , 1215, 59.3, 8.1, 3.6

 

Grier, Finley, Stidham and Minshew all look like respectable picks, but their lack of mobility means they would be dependent on an OL. McSorely 

 

2021, Trevor Lawrence, , 1138, 66.6, 8.9, 4.1
2021, Zach Wilson, , 837, 67.6, 9.1, 3
2021, Justin Fields, , 618, 68.4, 9.2, 4.4
2021, Trey Lance, , 288, 67, 9.7, 6.7

 

2021, Kellen Mond, 1358, 59, 7.1, 3.7
2021, Mac Jones, 556, 74.3, 11, 0.8
2021, Kyle Trask, 813, 67.9, 9.1, 0.4
2021, Jamie Newman, 506, 60.5, 7.8, 3.4

 

Looking into 2021 and we have 4 potential non first rounders. I don't like Jones and Newman because of their experience. Other guys who have had questionable experience and succeeded had another quality that was off the charts (Murray with his ypc). Newman is similar to Allen on about 150 fewer attempts, but with a higher completion percentage so I could see going there 2 or later. Mond is like Jordan Love or Daniel Jones in terms of YPC but with more mobility. 

 

How accurate is this? I think I'm too strict on mobility because I would exclude a Kirk Cousins as a late round gem and I probably need to do more to include TDs and INTs, but so many of the QBs drafted late just don't pass a simple test as this that I'm sure that even if we dropped the question of mobility, and looked for a late round guy who is a 2+ year starter with a 60+ % completion percentage it becomes a much different thing. 

Great post, thanks for putting it together.

Many of the players with meeting the qualifications are either big time starters or really good #2 QB's.

I like paying attention to the late round guys that fall into these qualifications as players that would be good investments. Start as second or third stringers then minimally be the #2 for years to come and have potential to someday be the starter. It is why on draft day I really liked Brissett. I was surprised NE took him as early as they did though. 

I did think Stindham and Minshew reached the threshold for the list but get the mobility/McSorley factor. I would have been happy for WFT to have grabbed one of those guys.

This years list is rough.

I thought Jones might have had the cut off must not miss by much. He feels like a Parcells/Belichick guy

i get Mond and Trask making the list and on paper, Trask is a fringe first rounder. Then you watch these guys and eh

Newman is the only intriguing one which means probably like Brissett years ago, he will go way earlier than he really should

[KillBill26]

1 hour ago, UK Skins said:

We are talking two 1sts to move up to 7th in the draft. Wouldn't we rather have Wilson than Lance?

Absolutely, I'd rather have the proven elite qb than a very raw qb who didn't even play FBS.  But again, I'm not as big on lance as others are. I'd assume wilson still has 6 plus very good season left in him.  Before in between lynch and DK, wilson proved he could carry that offense almost single handedly.   

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[wit33]

26 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

Never gonna happen but if the hypothetical question is whether you take the 4th best QB in the draft or R. Wilson at the same draft pick investment cost, anyone who chooses the young guy is crazy. Darn the baggage and lost cap space.

 

Wilson is a HOF QB.

He has already proven he can get you a SB

You hope beyond hope anyone from this draft even sniffs what Wilson currently is.

 

By the time Lance is good enough, if he is ever good enough, to even think about winning a title, you could already have one with Wilson, and at his age, you can expect to get a few more.

 

If the argument was for a fringe established QB, who you are not sure can get you where you want to go, I can see bringing in the rook. If you are looking at the rookie who is an elite prospect, (Trev) I can see that direction as well. If you are looking at a vet QB who is breaking down, sure. But to even compare the 4th best QB prospect, who probably should not even start day 1 due to being raw, to the guy who was in the MVP convo this season and think you can come out ahead is like seven bridges too far.

 

People on here think they are playing 4D chess when they are pushing around checkers pieces. Madness.

Is there a difference when a QB gets his team to a SB on a rookie deal versus being paid top tier? 

 

Personally, I’m a fan who believes the supreme value is the guy who can get you to the playoffs and value a guy who gets you to the Conference Championship game as much as the SB. Wilson certainly has proven able to lead his team the playoffs while being highly paid, but not CC or SB. 
 

If we were just to screenshot his last 6 years some here would label him as a guy you go deep in the playoffs with. He missed the playoffs in 2017, bounced out in the first round twice, and 3 times in the divisional round. Alex Smith from 2011 to 2017, playoffs 5 out of 7 years, bounced out in the first round 3 times, and 2 times in the divisional round. 
 

The fight for equal justice. 

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, KillBill26 said:

They are debating russell wilson vs lance,not Zach wilson.  I made the same mistake first time I read it.

 

lol, when I see Wilson and Lance back to back in the same statement, that's where my mind goes. 

 

As for Russell Wilson, I expect we are wasting our time discussing it. 

[RichmondRedskin88]

People are afraid of OSU QBs (I been saying this forever.). And Eagles have been spending too much time this off-season sniffing markers.  Nothing to see here folks.