Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Est.1974]

17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am with you 100% on Robinson. 

 

I'd rather not throw a 3rd rounder in the trash for Darnold but it wouldn't be as bad compared to the rumors that it would take a 2nd or first.  It would be fun I admit though to watch Heinicke beat Darnold in training camp.  😀

I can really see us throwing a day 2 pick at the Jets for Darnold now. 
 

Or, in the draft, a marginal trade up for the #4/5 QB, already having Heinicke under contract as insurance if that move fails.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

2 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I suggested a while back that we give both Heinicke and Allen 2 year 4/5 mil deals and let them fight over the #2 spot. Seems like Heinicke gets 9mil in the contract and Allen can feast off the other 1mil on his ERFA tender.

Truth is, that while its onlt 5 quarters Heinicke gave us the best QB play of the season. In a high pressure environment. In the playoffs. Against the soon to be SB Champs. Almost on his own. On a team thay Kyle Allen also played for and never looked as good. So I want and expect Allen back but I think he has to show he can do what Heinicke did to earn more. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Not going to lie, while that contract is "peanuts" for an NFL QB ... it's a very nice contract for someone who was out of the league just 90 days ago. You have to look at the offer from the perspective of the team. They could have tendered him at $2.2m for one year. Instead they opted to sign him for 2 years. "Smart deal" for the team per Michael Phillips, because he can compete and be a QB2 but if he "blows up" you have him on the cheap in 2022 or can trade him for assets.

 

To me, from a reporter on the team, that gives me some signals that the team might actually be willing to roll into the season with Heinecke as a potential starter. Meaning no Mariota. No Watson. No (insert veteran QB here). I think this screams rookie QB. And not necessarily in Round 1. More of a situation where you draft a guy and he comes in and doesn't have the job right away, and Heinecke is the starter, and blows up to the extend that you would have to seriously consider him as a long-term option. Which either means you trade him for assets in 2022 or name him the starter and trade whoever it is you drafted.

 

Fascinating. Maybe I'm reading into that too much, but this signing signals to me that the team is serious about considering Heinecke as the guy.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I can really see us throwing a day 2 pick at the Jets for Darnold now. 
 

Or, in the draft, a marginal trade up for the #4/5 QB, already having Heinicke under contract as insurance if that move fails.

 

I don't see how this Heinicke stuff changes anything.  All of the reports leading up to this indicated this would happen.  I posted last week Finlay saying if he bet on one of the three returning for sure it would be Heinicke.

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

 

Okay, that Keim comment makes sense too. I still think the signing indicates that the team thinks he can be a starter. Maybe it doesn't preclude them from swinging for the fences on another option, but to me this move signals to me that the team views him as a legit QB2 with QB1 potential should they go QB in the draft. Again, they could have signed him to the $2.2m one year tender, and opted to give him 2 years and $9m. Strikes me as a move you make if you really believe you could get something in that 2nd year.

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, Thinking Skins said:

Truth is, that while its onlt 5 quarters Heinicke gave us the best QB play of the season. In a high pressure environment. In the playoffs. Against the soon to be SB Champs. Almost on his own. On a team thay Kyle Allen also played for and never looked as good. So I want and expect Allen back but I think he has to show he can do what Heinicke did to earn more. 

Just said in another thread, I’m not as sold on him as others are, but he showed up, worked hard, played hard, earned respect.

 

Fair play to him, I think it’s deserving irrespective of what other moves we make.

[DWinzit]

19 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I'm kinda at the point where I want whoever is there in the third. I don't care what people say, we're notgoing to see them all gone by the end of the third. Heck, the most we've seen in the last 22 years is 7 QBs taken in the first three rounds and years where tehre are 4 or more QBs taken in the first there are generally 1 or none in the second, so there's a good chance that if Jones is indeed the fifth QB taken, that all three of Mond, Trask and Newman will be available in the 2nd somone else available in the third and someone else in the 4th.

 

And this is not even thinking about the idea that somebody can take a flyer on somebody we thought would go much later in the second or third. Could that be newman? Could that be Book? Elhinger? If one of these guys goes in rounds 2 or 3, then we can get Mond od Trask much easier.  

 

13 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

The thing about Mond for me is that he'd be a developmental guy who, if pressed to play I think wouldn't be in over his head. I wish his completion percentage was higher and I've read reports from fans who weren't in love with him as an all around QB. But I think his mobility gives just the right tools to come in and be a potential guy who could learn to play as a pro. Honestly my pro comp for him right now is Daniel Jones. Nothing splashy as a starter and somebody we'd be looking to replace sooner or later, but for a 3rd or 4th I think thats reasonable. 

Similar to what I said earlier on Brissett, Stidham, Minshew thoughts, I'd be fine with grabbing a Newman or Mond and let them hold a clip board for a year or two. They have similar comps as your work proved and could become starters some day. I think they minimally could be quality backups for a long time. I like Trask but his inflated numbers due to the weapons he had scares me. In real late rounds I could see Elhinger or Book but I am meh on them.

I like Newman the best of the bunch and I think he is the one that will go earlier than the others

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Not going to lie, while that contract is "peanuts" for an NFL QB ... it's a very nice contract for someone who was out of the league just 90 days ago. You have to look at the offer from the perspective of the team. They could have tendered him at $2.2m for one year. Instead they opted to sign him for 2 years. "Smart deal" for the team per Michael Phillips, because he can compete and be a QB2 but if he "blows up" you have him on the cheap in 2022 or can trade him for assets.

 

To me, from a reporter on the team, that gives me some signals that the team might actually be willing to roll into the season with Heinecke as a potential starter. Meaning no Mariota. No Watson. No (insert veteran QB here). I think this screams rookie QB. And not necessarily in Round 1. More of a situation where you draft a guy and he comes in and doesn't have the job right away, and Heinecke is the starter, and blows up to the extend that you would have to seriously consider him as a long-term option. Which either means you trade him for assets in 2022 or name him the starter and trade whoever it is you drafted.

 

Fascinating. Maybe I'm reading into that too much, but this signing signals to me that the team is serious about considering Heinecke as the guy.

 

I don't think it says much of anything other than they wanted Heinicke on the roster to compete for QB1 and likely be the QB2. And if he winds up starting and playing well they have him for one year on the cheap and can use the money he isn't costing to get guys extended and put cap hits in year 2.

 

It's a smart contract.

 

Though I do think it may mean trouble for Kyle Allen... depending on the offseason moves at QB. Rookie? He's probably good. Vet added? He's in trouble. 

[CommDownMan]

4 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I don't view Wilson as even remotely available tbh. Watson should garner more because he's only 25 and can guarantee you probably another 8-10 years of good QB play.

 

3 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

agreed, the fact Watson probably gets you a decade of franchise QB play should make the price more palatable.

 

If he didn't last 5 years in Texas, is it really reasonable to assume he wouldn't grow tired of DC long before the 8-10?

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I don't see how this Heinicke stuff changes anything.  All of the reports leading up to this indicated this would happen.  I posted last week Finlay saying if he bet on one of the three returning for sure it would be Heinicke.

 

Nah, we’d have just tendered him. No one saw a 2 years 9mil deal coming. 
 

He’s paid as a backup, but fallback starter is either a much larger trade fails, or we bring a reclamation project in like Darnold and that fails.

2 minutes ago, jsharrin55 said:

 

 

If he didn't last 5 years in Texas, is it really reasonable to assume he wouldn't grow tired of DC long before the 8-10?

 I think so yes.

[heyholetsgogrant]

26 minutes ago, dswerdlw said:

 I was thinking we'd offer Heinicke a one or two year contract at 3 million per year, so this is a significant slice above that -- but not outlandish, and I guess it depends on the structure of the deal. Since Allen is an ERFA, we have a little more time on that one to see how things play out. Given the craziness in the QB market, as well as the uncertainty about Smith's future, teams are playing 3D chess right now. Signing Heinicke seems like the prudent move of a small but significant piece on that board.

Doesn't Mariota get $5 million as a backup?  I guess it's just the cost of QB's these days.
 

12 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

 

 

I wonder if this was done seeing the cost in terms of draft capital to get any of the available QB's? Wonder if this brings down the price tags?

Edited February 10, 2021 by heyholetsgogrant

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, heyholetsgogrant said:

Doesn't Mariota get $5 million as a backup?  I guess it's just the cost of QB's these days.

pretty sure he’s due double that this year.

[The Consigliere]

13 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

Man you guys are just slamming me with those logic bombs, over and over while I struggle to drag my, "hunch", "Jets ruined him," and, "take lock" ever more slowly forward. I think this is my Thermypolae. 

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Okay, that Keim comment makes sense too. I still think the signing indicates that the team thinks he can be a starter. Maybe it doesn't preclude them from swinging for the fences on another option, but to me this move signals to me that the team views him as a legit QB2 with QB1 potential should they go QB in the draft. Again, they could have signed him to the $2.2m one year tender, and opted to give him 2 years and $9m. Strikes me as a move you make if you really believe you could get something in that 2nd year.

 

Reporters get a lot of their information from the agents directly.  It always helps the agents to inflate to the maximum as for what the contracts are -- my point is I won't be shocked that the base salary is much lower than it looks like as opposed to the salary with the "incentives" added. 

[HigSkin]

3 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Nah, we’d have just tendered him. No one saw a 2 years 9mil deal coming. 
 

He’s paid as a backup, but fallback starter is either a much larger trade fails, or we bring a reclamation project in like Darnold and that fails.

 

The money is interesting because if they extend Allen to anything close to Heinicke, it kind of signals they aren't going "big" in FA.  That would be too much money tied up in QB's.

[pcbothwel]

5 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Okay, that Keim comment makes sense too. I still think the signing indicates that the team thinks he can be a starter. Maybe it doesn't preclude them from swinging for the fences on another option, but to me this move signals to me that the team views him as a legit QB2 with QB1 potential should they go QB in the draft. Again, they could have signed him to the $2.2m one year tender, and opted to give him 2 years and $9m. Strikes me as a move you make if you really believe you could get something in that 2nd year.

 

Isnt the 2.2M guaranteed though? If so, then I dont think its an Apples to Apples comp.

I mean, everyone is seeing 8.75m and thinking "Ok, so he's getting ~4.4M per year, right?"

No, 8.75M is probably the max value full of incentives and back loaded. He probably gets a 1M signing bonus and 1.5M in Base this year along with some roster bonuses each year.

 

This is a good deal

[CommDownMan]

9 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Okay, that Keim comment makes sense too. I still think the signing indicates that the team thinks he can be a starter. Maybe it doesn't preclude them from swinging for the fences on another option, but to me this move signals to me that the team views him as a legit QB2 with QB1 potential should they go QB in the draft. Again, they could have signed him to the $2.2m one year tender, and opted to give him 2 years and $9m. Strikes me as a move you make if you really believe you could get something in that 2nd year.

 

Until this team lands another QB, Heinicke and Allen are competing for #1 (I guess until Smith is officially retired or gone he's part of that too). 

 

If 19 comes and goes and we haven't traded for, signed FA for or drafted for QB, anything lower pick is likely not year 1 (week 1 at least) starter.  I'd imagine by May they all have a good idea if they are battling for #1 or #2.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, pcbothwel said:

 

Isnt the 2.2M guaranteed though? If so, then I dont think its an Apples to Apples comp.

I mean, everyone is seeing 8.75m and thinking "Ok, so he's getting ~4.4M per year, right?"

No, 8.75M is probably the max value full of incentives and back loaded. He probably gets a 1M signing bonus and 1.5M in Base this year along with some roster bonuses each year.

 

This is a good deal

 

Yeah on paper, you're probably right. I would think maybe there's $2.5m in guarantees over the 2 years, but the 2nd year contract is an easy escape.

 

$2.2m 2021 guarantees + $850k league min. for about $3m cap hit

 

That would leave around $5.75m in 2022 ... probably only fractionally guaranteed ($500k?) so easy to cut bait if he bombs in 2021 or someone else emerges as a clear starter.

[Llevron]

I think this is a good chance for us to buy some offensive pieces and put as much talent as we can on O. And if none of the cheapish guys we have at QB take it and run with it then swing for the feces for a QB next year. This is always what I advocate for though, so maybe im just biased. 

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

The money is interesting because if they extend Allen to anything close to Heinicke, it kind of signals they aren't going "big" in FA.  That would be too much money tied up in QB's.

Allen is in a bit of trouble I’d say. Will soon find out, got to think this is the first move to fall, and another one could follow soon. Allen’s injury and status means it’s a straightforward ERFA tender initially.

[CommDownMan]

2 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

The money is interesting because if they extend Allen to anything close to Heinicke, it kind of signals they aren't going "big" in FA.  That would be too much money tied up in QB's.

 

Mixed reports on Heinicke being RFA or ERFA.  If he was a RFA then he would have been a true FA next year.  If he does well this year backups are more in the 10+ range.  Giving him more now makes the 2 yr cost lower.

 

From what I'm seeing Allen has 2 years as a ERFA meaning they could do something like 750K and 850K before he hits Unrestricted FA.  Service time is tough to find so I'm not super sure, but if the case, they likely won't follow the same tactic with Allen.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, jsharrin55 said:

 

Until this team lands another QB, Heinicke and Allen are competing for #1 (I guess until Smith is officially retired or gone he's part of that too). 

 

If 19 comes and goes and we haven't traded for, signed FA for or drafted for QB, anything lower pick is likely not year 1 (week 1 at least) starter.  I'd imagine by May they all have a good idea if they are battling for #1 or #2.

 

Yup, I think you're spot on. I think the scenarios as they play out are:

Trade for a QB

Sign Dak in FA

Trade-up for a QB

Hope someone falls to #19

Draft a mid-round QB target

 

Scenario 1 and 2 probably relegate Heinecke to QB2. But every other scenario leaves the door open for Heinecke as a stopgap. Even if we traded up for Trey Lance, he probably isn't put in a position to start until 2022 at the earliest, so even then Heinecke makes a lot of sense as the QB1. If Mac Jones is the pick at #19, he's coming in to compete for the job, and it is not being handed to him. And any QB taken after R1 should not be looked at as anywhere naer the QB1 unless they come in and just blow the windows out like  Russell Wilson.

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Nah, we’d have just tendered him. No one saw a 2 years 9mil deal coming. 
 

He’s paid as a backup, but fallback starter is either a much larger trade fails, or we bring a reclamation project in like Darnold and that fails.

 

 

If the dude ends up good, the 2nd year is smart.  Also we don't know if the 2nd year is even guaranteed and if so you got nothing to lose.  I've seen including here multiple 2 year contracts like that.  The 2nd year helps the team sometimes not so much the player because it gives them the option to stay or cut bait with the player. 

 

As for no one saw it coming, the beat guys (not just Finlay) have been acting like its slam dunk he's back.  

 

As for him being a fallback starter, yeah sure, why not, he's better IMO than Kyle Allen and I don't think Alex will be back nor can I trust him to stay healthy.

 

I'll post shortly what I heard in back to back podcasts on the Qb spot.  In short, they want to upgrade the position this year.  But if they don't, Keim mentioned some things that could be under consideration for next year including trading down in the draft to pick up 2022 draft trade capital.

Edited February 10, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, Llevron said:

I think this is a good chance for us to buy some offensive pieces and put as much talent as we can on O. And if none of the cheapish guys we have at QB take it and run with it then swing for the feces for a QB next year. This is always what I advocate for though, so maybe im just biased. 

 

We've been swinging for the feces for years, bro!