Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[TheGoodBits]

17 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

If we strike out on Stafford here's what happens (I think).

 

Stafford goes from Detroit to Indianapolis for pick #21 in 2021 and a 2nd rounder in 2022.

 

1. Jax - Lawrence

2. NYJ - Wilson

3. Miami - Smith

*Detroit trades #7, 2nd (#41) and 2022 2nd from IND to Atlanta for #4

4. Detroit - Fields

5. Cincinnati - Sewell

6. Philly - Chase

*WAS trades #19, 3rd (#76)  and 2021 1st to Atlanta for #7

7. Washington - Lance

Could be a hunch. But I don't think Atlanta is in a position to move on from Matt Ryan just yet. They could go "groom mode" but I think they'd actually be better off trading back and acquiring picks this year to restock the team around Ryan while also getting future draft capital to trade up should they want to make a move on a QB in 2022 or beyond.

 

Detroit essentially swaps Stafford and pick #7 and #41 for Justin Fields, pick #21

 

Atlanta moves from #4 to #19, but in the process adds #41, #74 and a 2022 1st round pick (from WFT) and a 2022 2nd round pick from IND via DET

 

Washington moves from #19 to #7 to get their future franchise QB in Trey Lance (leapfrogging Carolina).

 

Maybe that is overpay for WFT, but it is one scenario I can see unfolding if we aren't able to land a long-term solution in FA and feel good about the team going into the draft. Giving up #19, 74 and a 2022 1st round pick (hopefully in the back half of the draft) for a franchise QB could be seen as a risk worth taking, even if said QB (Lance) is redshirted as a rookie.

 

 

If we let the Colts outbid us for Stafford  with a 1 and next year’s 2 only to turn around and give up our 1, 3 and next year’s 1 to trade up for an FCS quarterback I’ll punch myself in the groin 5x a day for the next 3 years until we draft another quarterback. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

11 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

If we let the Colts outbid us for Stafford  with a 1 and next year’s 2 only to turn around and give up our 1, 3 and next year’s 1 to trade up for an FCS quarterback I’ll punch myself in the groin 5x a day for the next 3 years until we draft another quarterback. 

 

Look, I understand that. I really do. We might not be "outbid" by Detroit so much as Stafford might push to go there (and seems DET wants to do well by him). If all is equal, he could go there over here.

 

Now, before you throw the book out on Lance because he is an FCS QB ... if Lance were to return to NDSU and play next fall I would put some serious $$ on him being next year's #1 overall pick and likely talked about in the way Lawrence and Burrow were talked about this year.

 

You're building in the risk that his inexperience makes him a longer-term project by taking him at #7. If there's a QB to make that sort of gamble on THIS year, its Lance.

 

I had the fortune (misfortune?) of traveling down to Frisco in January of last year and watch Lance lead NDSU to a title win over my beloved JMU. JMU trounced people last year. Their defense shut down every offense they saw. They had no answer for Lance, and he didn't even have to throw the ball. And when he did, the throws were deflating. He's got an electric arm. He just needs some serious time to learn the NFL ropes.

 

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[CurseReversed]

2 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

Just making sure lol.

 

Also, I agree about Indy. I think they have more stability and a better foundation but in terms of blue chip players they don’t have much. Nelson, Leonard and Buckner is it. Guys like Pittman, Taylor and Hooker have the potential but not there. A bunch of other high draft unknowns like Ya-sin, Blackmon etc

Agreed

 

There is a small but significant difference between a playoff roster and a super bowl roster.  Indy might have a good team in place but are they good enough to beat Kansas city or Buffalo? Without any truly elite pieces, what is their ceiling?  If i was Stafford and I was really going for it all I would bet on the potential of Young and Sweat being at the core of an elite unit that can be the real difference makers against the best teams in the big games.

WIth so many of their core players on cheap deals, the WFT is a few FA's and a good draft away from having a roster that can rival Indy in its completeness. But nothing Indy can do will likely get them players like young or sweat to cap it off. 

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by CurseReversed

[Skinsinparadise]

21 minutes ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

If we end up with Darnold, I could legitimately see Heinicke or Allen beating him out. I'd rather Ron suit up and start ripping PA passes, than see Darnold in a maroon and yellow jersey.

 

Yeah me too. Though I admit I'd have to study him more closely.  I wasn't impressed with the games i've watched of his which were plenty with the Jets.    His college completion percentage was OK but nothing special and he was a turnover machine in college.  Shockingly, in the NFL his completion percentage is under 60% and is a turnover machine still. 😀

 

If I had to buy some positive narrative about him it would be squarely about him having some good albeit not great run of games once he came back from mono.    And that better coaching would fix him.  But I got serious doubts about him. 

 

My most positive take of him maybe would be a poor man's Daniel Jones?  Like Jones his weaknesses are fumbles and INTs.  For big guys they both move better than you'd expect.  Jones is faster.  Darnold has a stronger arm.   Darnold isn't a threat to take off with the ball but his strength IMO is boots -- he throws well on the move.  But overall, i am not a fan. 

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[TheGoodBits]

@JamesMadisonSkins- agree with you that Lance has a special arm and great athleticism. The important thing you noted (correctly) was that he’ll need time. There’s a good chance his FCS success won’t translate to the NFL, just based on history. That’s not a gamble I want to make while we have a D that’s ready to win now, and especially not if we have to give up multiple 1s to get him. 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

My most positive take of him maybe would be a poor man's Daniel Jones?

Well that ain’t much.

[PartyPosse]

7 minutes ago, CurseReversed said:

Agreed

 

There is a small but significant difference between a playoff roster and a super bowl roster.  Indy might have a good team in place but are they good enough to beat Kansas city or Buffalo? Without any truly elite pieces, what is their ceiling?  If i was Stafford and I was really going for it all I would bet on the potential of Young and Sweat being at the core of an elite unit that can be the real difference makers against the best teams in the big games.

WIth so many of their core players on cheap deals, the WFT is a few FA's and a good draft away from having a roster that can rival Indy in its completeness. But nothing Indy can do will likely get them players like young or sweat to cap it off. 

 

There are honestly pros and cons for both. He also may just wanna play in a dome 8 games at home versus the debacle that is fed-ex.

[mistertim]

I have an idea. With all this talk of Rodgers, instead of giving up a ton of picks for him could we just offer the Packers a 3rd rounder for his mustache and put it on Heinicke? That alone would easily be another 3-4 wins per year. 

 

I mean, c'mon...look at this thing:

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by mistertim

[heyholetsgogrant]

57 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

This is just getting ridiculous now. Come on man, really? Mahommes is the only QB that'll be with his team next year.

Goes to show how important QB play is, wouldn't be surprised if teams start giving up multiple first rounds picks for QB's this off season. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[method man]

3 minutes ago, heyholetsgogrant said:

Goes to show how important QB play is, wouldn't be surprised if teams start giving up multiple first rounds picks for QB's this off season. 

 

It really takes one trade to set a market. Just take a look at the NBA. Ever since the Lakers gave up all their picks for Davis, every team that trades for a superstars throws a minimum of four first round picks/pick swaps with a young player or two

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Well that ain’t much.

 

I know. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

15 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

@JamesMadisonSkins- agree with you that Lance has a special arm and great athleticism. The important thing you noted (correctly) was that he’ll need time. There’s a good chance his FCS success won’t translate to the NFL, just based on history. That’s not a gamble I want to make while we have a D that’s ready to win now, and especially not if we have to give up multiple 1s to get him. 

 

There have been FCS QBs that have gotten shots in the NFL later in the draft, but there are several comparable high-profile prospects.

 

Wentz (TBD I guess) from NDSU and went #2

Flacco in R1 from Delaware

Garoppolo from Eastern Illinois as a R2 (or R3?)

Steve McNair from Alcorn

Tony Romo (Eastern Illinois)

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Harvard)

Kurt Warner (Northern Iowa)

 

Phil Simms (Morehead State)

Doug Williams (Grambling) - included as a throwback for obvious reasons.

 

I guess the highest profile in terms of draft position were Steve McNair and Carson Wentz. Flacco was R1. Garoppolo was acknowledged as a high upside pick in ROund 2 or 3. The others were later or undrafted that struck gold, obviously.

 

Weren't Williams and Simms high picks? Of course that was a different era, but even looking at the last couple decades (going back to mid-90s with McNair I guess is outdated) there are plenty of success stories.

 

NOW, Lance's last tape other than the one-game trial this year was as a redshirt freshman. But he dominated. I really wish we had gotten a chance to see him against Oregn this year.

Edited January 26, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[HigSkin]

Hmmmmm...cool.  Doesn't appear he's part of any QB trade.

 

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by HigSkin

[clskinsfan]

6 hours ago, HigSkin said:

Kiper is on Get Up this morning talking about QB's in his latest mock.  Notice he has Mac Jones going to the Pats at #15.

That draft would completely screw us. Would leave us picking defense again most likely.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That draft would completely screw us. Would leave us picking defense again most likely.

 

True. Well, maybe not. LT could be a pick there if we decided Lucas should be upgraded long-term. Could look to trade out of #19 and accumulate some assets next year to make a move for a QB? Get someone's 2nd and a 2022 1st. But that would take a special player to be there to move up for, which we would probably have to consider taking.

 

It's why we really should use free agency to nail as many holes as possible (even via bargain FAs) so that we can go BPA and not feel weird about it. But yeah, if the first 8 picks are offense, it will likely drive some defensive value to our pick, which isn't terrible. Nothing wrong with bolstering a strength I guess.

 

I think we should all be rooting for Mac Jones to crush it at the Senior Bowl. Worst case is he is someone that we could legitimately consider at #19 if he were there, or someone ahead of us falls in love with him and pushes Lance down the board (assuming a team would want someone to step in and play sooner).

[wit33]

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

A dying breed of QB. Exceptions will always exist, but it’s incredibly hard to keep up with other QBs/offenses, just from the pocket these days. Good for him securing that amount of leverage in his contract. 

[HigSkin]

This seems wonky....

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by HigSkin

[mistertim]

15 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

There have been FCS QBs that have gotten shots in the NFL later in the draft, but there are several comparable high-profile prospects.

 

Wentz (TBD I guess) from NDSU and went #2

Flacco in R1 from Delaware

Garoppolo from Eastern Illinois as a R2 (or R3?)

Steve McNair from Alcorn

Tony Romo (Eastern Illinois)

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Harvard)

Kurt Warner (Northern Iowa)

 

Phil Simms (Morehead State)

Doug Williams (Grambling) - included as a throwback for obvious reasons.

 

I guess the highest profile in terms of draft position were Steve McNair and Carson Wentz. Flacco was R1. Garoppolo was acknowledged as a high upside pick in ROund 2 or 3. The others were later or undrafted that struck gold, obviously.

 

Weren't Williams and Simms high picks? Of course that was a different era, but even looking at the last couple decades (going back to mid-90s with McNair I guess is outdated) there are plenty of success stories.

 

NOW, Lance's last tape other than the one-game trial this year was as a redshirt freshman. But he dominated. I really wish we had gotten a chance to see him against Oregn this year.

 

I'm pretty meh on Lance for us. I think he's super talented and fun to watch but I think he'll not only need time before he's ready to play but he'll probably also be best in a spot where the OC will really craft an offense around his skills and ability to run ala the Ravens and Jackson. 

 

On the first point that feels like a bad fit to me because we clearly sound like we're looking to win now and think we're just a good QB away. If Lance is a guy who would need to sit for a year (or however long) that doesn't sound like it would mesh with our apparent plans right now.

 

On the second point, I don't know for sure that Turner wouldn't be all that into completely revamping his offense for a running QB, but that's not exactly his pedigree so to speak. I suppose Ron could always try to force the issue...he's the boss, after all.

 

I really do wonder what we'll do though if we completely lose out on the potential QB trade sweepstakes and don't land a guy who would be a clear upgrade over what we have. Would we take one of the second tier QBs at 19 (maybe Mac Jones) and hope he develops quickly? Would we go pure BPA there and hope Allen or Heinicke could propel us further than this past season? Would we get one of the mediocre FA QBs or trade for one (Fitz, Mariota, Jimmy G, etc) and hope they'll take us a little further?

[Number 44]

17 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

True. Well, maybe not. LT could be a pick there if we decided Lucas should be upgraded long-term. Could look to trade out of #19 and accumulate some assets next year to make a move for a QB? Get someone's 2nd and a 2022 1st. But that would take a special player to be there to move up for, which we would probably have to consider taking.

 

It's why we really should use free agency to nail as many holes as possible (even via bargain FAs) so that we can go BPA and not feel weird about it. But yeah, if the first 8 picks are offense, it will likely drive some defensive value to our pick, which isn't terrible. Nothing wrong with bolstering a strength I guess.

 

I think we should all be rooting for Mac Jones to crush it at the Senior Bowl. Worst case is he is someone that we could legitimately consider at #19 if he were there, or someone ahead of us falls in love with him and pushes Lance down the board (assuming a team would want someone to step in and play sooner).

It is pretty clear that you are very high on Lance.  I think that Lance is about the least likely QB to end up with WFT.  Nobody seriously thinks that he is ready to be a starting NFL QB in 2021, and RR has made it pretty clear that he is focusing on improving the QB position now, while we have the window to compete.  Giving up major assets for a project like Lance just doesn't jibe with RR's stated goals, no matter how high his upside may appear to be.  Sorry, but I'm just not seeing Lance as being in the cards for us.

[httrcirca87]

Would trading for Goff be worth it? What kind of package would we have to give up?

[Skinsinparadise]

My fav 2nd-3rd round type

 

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Commander_N_Chief]

2 minutes ago, httrcirca87 said:

Would trading for Goff be worth it? What kind of package would we have to give up?

Trading for Goff would require the Rams to give us picks in order for us to deem his contract worth taking on.

[Skinsinparadise]

20 minutes ago, wit33 said:

A dying breed of QB. Exceptions will always exist, but it’s incredibly hard to keep up with other QBs/offenses, just from the pocket these days. Good for him securing that amount of leverage in his contract. 

 

Part of the reason I like this dude's potential