Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Koolblue13]

13 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

 

This is just getting ridiculous now. Come on man, really? Mahommes is the only QB that'll be with his team next year.

[Ball Security]

3 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

The better strategery would be to trade Jonathan Allen and a 3rd for Stafford.  Allen will be a free agent after next season, and he's already making 10.5 million in 2021.  He'll be due to get an enormous contract in 2022 - when we already have 2 outstanding backup DT's that will have no reason to stay if we lock up Allen and then Payne the next year.  We want to keep both Ion and Settle for the long run, and Payne is the key to our run defense - not to mention he had 2 sacks against TB.  That leaves Allen as the odd man out.  As good as Allen is, he's easily replacable.  And as good a leader he is, this is Chase Young's team.      

If you are a rebuilding Detroit, would you rather have 1 year of Allen and a 3rd or the 21st pick?  I don’t think that offer will be competitive with Indy.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, method man said:

 

Not only that but Ion is also the best interior pass rusher on this team by far

 

I still think the likeliest trade candidate from the IDL is Tim Settle. He "fell" in the draft and many thought he had R2 upside. He's played very well. He has one year left on a rookie contract, and if he plays well next year he won't necessarily have had the pedigree to demand a top flight contract just yet. I still don't think we end up trading any players though.

 

Would it make sense to trade Allen, #19 and a 2022 1st round pick to move up with, say, Atlanta? Maybe. If this FO has googly eyes for Fields or Lance or Wilson and thinks they can get them at #4, then sure. You mortgage one of your young veterans who is bought in, though, and that could hurt culture (which Rivera has been preaching).

 

But I think it makes more sense to trade Allen if it's in conjunction with #19 and a future pick to move up and draft a QB than it does to trade him for Stafford, IMO.

 

Lions will want picks. #19 and a 3rd rounder would be more valuable to them than Allen (who they'll have to pay bigtime soon) and a 3rd.

[Ruzious]

3 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Whoa....reading the tea leaves here? 

Sounds like the Rams would have an absurd cap hit if they trade Goff - maybe trade him next year but not this year.  

[Skinsinparadise]

Since earning Detroit’s full-time starting gig in 2011, Stafford has played for four different head coaches (Darrell Bevell, Matt Patricia, Jim Caldwell and Jim Schwartz) plus four different offensive coordinators (Bevell, Jim Bob Cooter, Scott Linehan and Joe Lombardi). Despite that instability, Stafford has earned an above-average passer rating relative to the league in five of those 10 seasons and has recorded a higher adjusted net yards per passing attempt (a modern update to the traditional passer rating) in six of those 10 seasons.

In fact, if you look at the last decade as a whole, Stafford accumulated 5,135 adjusted net yards more than an average quarterback, placing him behind only this Who’s Who list of franchise quarterbacks: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger.

Players with performance similar to Stafford at this point in their careers include Tony Romo and John Elway, per Pro Football Reference’s similarity scores. If we look at how those two performed from ages 33 to 34, a span which would cover the last two years of Stafford’s five-year, $135 million contract, we can perhaps get a sense of what to expect from Stafford in the short term. Romo averaged 251.1 yards and more than two touchdowns per game in that time frame, and Elway managed 250.7 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game.

Washington’s new front office is facing an important offseason, starting at quarterback

That resulted in a 104.1 passer rating for Romo and an 89.4 passer rating for Elway, which were 22 and 16 percent higher than the league average, respectively. In today’s more offensively oriented NFL, that would equate to a passer rating between 105 and 108, on par with how well Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson performed in 2020. All four were considered MVP candidates at some point during this regular season.

 

 

If there is a knock on Stafford’s performance, it’s that he doesn’t take full advantage of a clean pocket. This year, he completed 68 percent of his passes for 3,208 yards, 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions when not facing any pass pressure, producing a 97.6 passer rating, the seventh lowest out of 29 qualified passers. However, some of that could be the byproduct of 23 dropped passes in these situations, the fourth most among that same group of passers.

Even if he’s not in the top tier of NFL quarterbacks, Stafford remains an above-average starter who makes a positive impact on his offense, and in the right situation, he is talented enough to stretch the field and get the ball in the hands of playmakers. In the ideal situation, one with a strong offensive line, capable pass catchers and an inventive head coach, he could end the 2021 campaign as one of the five best quarterbacks of the year.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/01/26/matthew-stafford-lions-record-stats/?utm_campaign=wp_sports&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

 

 

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

I cringe every time someone suggests trading one of our Dlinemen for a QB, since we're trying so hard to get a QB because of our Dline. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I wouldn't want Goff.  But wonder how easily they can unload a contract like that with all that dead cap?

 

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

No way they could release Goff. They could theoretically take the small hit if they traded him, but who the hell wants to pay Goff $28 mil? Let alone give something up for the right to?

[JamesMadisonSkins]

If we strike out on Stafford here's what happens (I think).

 

Stafford goes from Detroit to Indianapolis for pick #21 in 2021 and a 2nd rounder in 2022.

 

1. Jax - Lawrence

2. NYJ - Wilson

3. Miami - Smith

*Detroit trades #7, 2nd (#41) and 2022 2nd from IND to Atlanta for #4

4. Detroit - Fields

5. Cincinnati - Sewell

6. Philly - Chase

*WAS trades #19, 3rd (#76)  and 2021 1st to Atlanta for #7

7. Washington - Lance

Could be a hunch. But I don't think Atlanta is in a position to move on from Matt Ryan just yet. They could go "groom mode" but I think they'd actually be better off trading back and acquiring picks this year to restock the team around Ryan while also getting future draft capital to trade up should they want to make a move on a QB in 2022 or beyond.

 

Detroit essentially swaps Stafford and pick #7 and #41 for Justin Fields, pick #21

 

Atlanta moves from #4 to #19, but in the process adds #41, #74 and a 2022 1st round pick (from WFT) and a 2022 2nd round pick from IND via DET

 

Washington moves from #19 to #7 to get their future franchise QB in Trey Lance (leapfrogging Carolina).

 

Maybe that is overpay for WFT, but it is one scenario I can see unfolding if we aren't able to land a long-term solution in FA and feel good about the team going into the draft. Giving up #19, 74 and a 2022 1st round pick (hopefully in the back half of the draft) for a franchise QB could be seen as a risk worth taking, even if said QB (Lance) is redshirted as a rookie.

 

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Skinsinparadise]

How about Payne and Allen and a first rounder for Stafford?  If that doesn't entice then throw in Ioannidis?

 

 

5 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Could be a hunch. But I don't think Atlanta is in a position to move on from Matt Ryan just yet. They could go "groom mode" but I think they'd actually be better off trading back and acquiring picks this year to restock the team around Ryan while also getting future draft capital to trade up should they want to make a move on a QB in 2022 or beyond.

 

Detroit essentially swaps Stafford and pick #7 and #41 for Justin Fields, pick #21

 

Atlanta moves from #4 to #19, but in the process adds #41, #74 and a 2022 1st round pick (from WFT)

 

Washington moves from #19 to #7 to get their future franchise QB in Trey Lance (leapfrogging Carolina).

 

Maybe that is overpay for WFT, but it is one scenario I can see unfolding if we aren't able to land a long-term solution in FA and feel good about the team going into the draft. Giving up #19, 74 and a 2022 1st round pick (hopefully in the back half of the draft) for a franchise QB could be seen as a risk worth taking, even if said QB (Lance) is redshirted as a rookie.

 

 

 

If I recall the exit ramp on Ryan's contract is 2022 so its not that far down the road.  I'd bet they take Lance.  

 

The one wildcard in that top 10 is I am reading again and again that Carolina is as hot for a QB as we are.  They are supposedly obsessed with fixing it this off season.  

Edited January 26, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Ruzious]

9 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

I still think the likeliest trade candidate from the IDL is Tim Settle. He "fell" in the draft and many thought he had R2 upside. He's played very well. He has one year left on a rookie contract, and if he plays well next year he won't necessarily have had the pedigree to demand a top flight contract just yet. I still don't think we end up trading any players though.

 

Would it make sense to trade Allen, #19 and a 2022 1st round pick to move up with, say, Atlanta? Maybe. If this FO has googly eyes for Fields or Lance or Wilson and thinks they can get them at #4, then sure. You mortgage one of your young veterans who is bought in, though, and that could hurt culture (which Rivera has been preaching).

 

But I think it makes more sense to trade Allen if it's in conjunction with #19 and a future pick to move up and draft a QB than it does to trade him for Stafford, IMO.

 

Lions will want picks. #19 and a 3rd rounder would be more valuable to them than Allen (who they'll have to pay bigtime soon) and a 3rd.

Very good points.  The NFL never does 3-way trades, but if they did,  Allen would go to a 3rd team, and Detroit would get a 1st round pick from that team.

 

The thing I'd worry about if we traded for the 4th pick is we end up picking Zach Wilson, and I see some bustability there because his arm isn't strong, and he's not particularly big.  He's better than Colt McCoy but how much better?    

[Ball Security]

7 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

No way they could release Goff. They could theoretically take the small hit if they traded him, but who the hell wants to pay Goff $28 mil? Let alone give something up for the right to?

Perhaps a Brock Osweiller situation, but I don’t see it happening.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

6 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

No way they could release Goff. They could theoretically take the small hit if they traded him, but who the hell wants to pay Goff $28 mil? Let alone give something up for the right to?

 

I heard speculation somewhere (SiriusXm NFL maybe?) that the Rams would have to pull a Brock Osweiler to get someone to take that contract off their hands. I don't know if the guarantees can be traded, or remember the specifics of the Osweiler deal ... but the problem is the Rams have no 1st this year to entice teams with.

Now, would I take on that contract and cap for a 2021 2nd rounder and 2022 1st rounder? Hell yeah. Pay the man in 2021 and 2022 as your stopgap QB. Plan to release him with a cap hit of $8m prior to 2023.

 

Use the picks to move up for Trey Lance. Goff QB1 2021 and 2022, Lance takes over in 2023. Bingo

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[HigSkin]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

How about Payne and Allen and a first rounder for Stafford?  If that doesn't entice them throw in Ionnaidis?

 

You're gonna love this.  QB domino's on The Herd (idiot)

 

Jets - Watson

WFT - Darnold

Houston - Zac Wilson

Colts - Stafford

Lions - Fields

49ers - Keep Jimmy G

Falcons - Keep Ryan

Panthers - Lance

Cowboys - Keep Dak

Pats - Mac Jones

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by HigSkin

[ExoDus84]

22 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

This is just getting ridiculous now. Come on man, really? Mahommes is the only QB that'll be with his team next year.

 

Words we all want to hear:

 

"Patrick Mahomes is the QB for the Kansas City Chiefs... for the next two weeks at least" - Andy Reid.

[Ball Security]

1 minute ago, HigSkin said:

 

You're gonna love this.  QB domino's on Cowherd (idiot)

 

Jets - Watson

WFT - Darnold

Houston - Zac Wilson

Colts - Stafford

Lions - Fields

49ers - Keep Jimmy G

Falcons - Keep Ryan

Panthers - Lance

Cowboys - Keep Dak

Pats - Mac Jones

 

Doesn’t seem all that far fetched, but I’d sit out of the Darnold piece unless they are giving him away for like a fifth.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

You're gonna love this.  QB domino's on Cowherd (idiot)

 

Jets - Watson

WFT - Darnold

Houston - Zac Wilson

Colts - Stafford

Lions - Fields

49ers - Keep Jimmy G

Falcons - Keep Ryan

Panthers - Lance

Cowboys - Keep Dak

Pats - Mac Jones

 

 

I mean, really, this is all very, very plausible to me. Not hard to see how they got to where they did.

[ExoDus84]

26 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Whoa....reading the tea leaves here? 

 

Snead:

 

"Goff is our QB right now. Hopefully not next week, but as of now, yes."

[Koolblue13]

4 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

I heard speculation somewhere (SiriusXm NFL maybe?) that the Rams would have to pull a Brock Osweiler to get someone to take that contract off their hands. I don't know if the guarantees can be traded, or remember the specifics of the Osweiler deal ... but the problem is the Rams have no 1st this year to entice teams with.

Now, would I take on that contract and cap for a 2021 2nd rounder and 2022 1st rounder? Hell yeah. Pay the man in 2021 and 2022 as your stopgap QB. Plan to release him with a cap hit of $8m prior to 2023.

 

Use the picks to move up for Trey Lance. Goff QB1 2021 and 2022, Lance takes over in 2023. Bingo

This magical.

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, HigSkin said:

 

You're gonna love this.  QB domino's on Cowherd (idiot)

 

Jets - Watson

WFT - Darnold

Houston - Zac Wilson

Colts - Stafford

Lions - Fields

49ers - Keep Jimmy G

Falcons - Keep Ryan

Panthers - Lance

Cowboys - Keep Dak

Pats - Mac Jones

 

 

 As chic as it seems to give Stafford to the Colts it seems to be equally chic to give us Darnold.    If rumors start welling up that we are chasing Darnold, I'll join the our roster isn't as good we think and or the we can win with Heinicke/Allen crowd. 

[ExoDus84]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 As chic as it seems to give Stafford to the Colts it seems to be equally chic to give us Darnold.    If rumors start welling up that we are chasing Darnold, I'll join the our roster isn't as good we think and or the we can win with Heinicke/Allen crowd. 

 

If we end up with Darnold, I could legitimately see Heinicke or Allen beating him out. I'd rather Ron suit up and start ripping PA passes, than see Darnold in a maroon and yellow jersey.

[bakedtater1]

19 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I cringe every time someone suggests trading one of our Dlinemen for a QB, since we're trying so hard to get a QB because of our Dline. 

Couldn't agree more 

[Koolblue13]

Just now, ExoDus84 said:

 

If we end up with Darnold, I could legitimately see Heinicke or Allen beating him out. I'd rather Ron suit up and start ripping PA passes, than see Darnold in a maroon and yellow jersey.

With Heinicke and Allen, we may not need Darnold to play until at least week 3.

[ExoDus84]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

With Heinicke and Allen, we may not need Darnold to play until at least week 3.

 

Darnold is what happens when a defective QB factory churns out products. The health of Kyle Allen, the accuracy of Dwayne Haskins, and the seeing of ghosts like Haley Joel Osment.