Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Burgundy Yoda]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

We got to dump our picks now before its too late....

 

 

 

I was just thinking the same thing honestly. 

[RWJ]

1 minute ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I was just thinking the same thing honestly. 

Owner and Owners can tell the HC stop, don't spend the draft picks.  They are the owners.  Nice try though. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

 

Ha. So by "resolved", I guess you don't take it to mean that it will be resolved, as far as our team is concerned (in our favor)

 

Who knows.   Russell said months back that he thinks an outcome could be Dan is suspended.  I'd welcome that if that's the outcome.  I know some think that any transgression off the field won't result in loss of draft picks -- but some beat guys think its possible to lose picks.  I got no idea but based on the stories out there I doubt the outcome is come big vindication for the WFT for everything that went down.  I'd guess the question is how flagrant it was or not. 

[Malapropismic Depository]

So, why bother trading Chase Young, if they're about to take away all our draft picks ? 😛

I mean, instead of trading Young in a package for Watson, just trade a bunch of our firsts and other picks.

 

I kid. Just playing along with all the crazy talk of trading Young.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Malapropismic Depository

[Burgundy Yoda]

1 minute ago, RWJ said:

Owner and Owners can tell the HC stop, don't spend the draft picks.  They are the owners.  Nice try though. 

[RWJ]

1 minute ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

Sorry, just being honest.   

[mistertim]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Who knows.   Russell said months back that he thinks an outcome could be Dan is suspended.  I'd welcome that if that's the outcome.  I know some think that any transgression off the field won't result in loss of draft picks -- but some beat guys think its possible to lose picks.  I got no idea but based on the stories out there I doubt the outcome is come big vindication for the WFT for everything that went down.  I'd guess the question is how flagrant it was or not. 

 

Wait, so what exactly happens if an owner is "suspended"?

[Burgundy Yoda]

2 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Sorry, just being honest.   

Why would Dan tell Ron not to trade the assets if they're anticipating them being taken away by the commissioner though? 

[RWJ]

Just now, Burgundy Yoda said:

Why would Dan tell Ron not to trade the assets if they're anticipating them being taken away by the commissioner though? 

Money possibly minus the picks.  Just a guess.

[KDawg]

We’re back on the “we’re going to lose picks for Snyder being a scumbag” thing? I very much doubt the League punishes the team for the owner. If anything, they go hard on Snyder and try their best to force a sale. 
 

But anything is possible I guess with this franchise. 

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Wait, so what exactly happens if an owner is "suspended"?

 

It would I assume be like Steinbrenner was suspended in the 90s if I recall for 2 years where he couldn't engage as the teams owner -- it operated without him.  Ironically some say that suspension led to the Yankees 90s dynasty

[Burgundy Yoda]

6 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Money possibly minus the picks.  Just a guess.

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

We’re back on the “we’re going to lose picks for Snyder being a scumbag” thing? I very much doubt the League punishes the team for the owner. If anything, they go hard on Snyder and try their best to force a sale. 
 

But anything is possible I guess with this franchise. 

JP Finlay is the one who's said he thinks we'll be losing picks, I never thought it was the right punishment for the crime but you never know with how Goodell handles these types of things. 

[Darth Tater]

6 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

Why would Dan tell Ron not to trade the assets if they're anticipating them being taken away by the commissioner though? 

Trading our picks for players would just mean the trade would be invalidated.

[Burgundy Yoda]

2 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

Trading our picks for players would just mean the trade would be invalidated.

Yes, but I would venture to say it's still worth a shot. The commissioner could easily just target next years draft picks if that was the goal. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

If the owners non-football related actions are gross enough to punish the football team by losing draft picks, the owners actions are gross enough to force him to sell.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

If the owners non-football related actions are gross enough to punish the football team by losing draft picks, the owners actions are gross enough to force him to sell.

Yup. I think Snyder removing all Allen ties is part of him clearing the slate.

 

We should resume with business as usual.

 

But I do wonder if this investigation is something other teams are concerned with in dealing with the WFT. 
 

Id like to not be dysfunctional someday.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I would like to think the hiring of many diverse men and one woman would be a good indication that the culture has been and is being addressed (Insert Bruce joke here).

 

Taking away picks or cap space to punish and impact the success of said new hires would seem disengenuous. I agree, if the transgressions are a bad as they are and would typically result in forfeited picks or cap space, that the owner would be forced out. Especially when minority owners are also trying to either get out/get him to sell. Seems like the wrong course for punishment.

[Darth Tater]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Yup. I think Snyder removing all Allen ties is part of him clearing the slate.

 

We should resume with business as usual.

 

But I do wonder if this investigation is something other teams are concerned with in dealing with the WFT. 
 

Id like to not be dysfunctional someday.

I have a suspicion that much of the NFL is guilty of doing what Dan is accused of. Unless he is willing to fall on his sword, I think it is a good possibility that not much happens even if he is guilty.

[LD0506]

30 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Wait, so what exactly happens if an owner is "suspended"?

 

Depends on the length of the rope 😀

[Alexa]

glad we didn't get Stafford. draft a qb and let him compete. and no more swing and miss RG3 trades on draft day.

[skinny21]

4 hours ago, mistertim said:

I definitely would like to keep the DL group intact if possible, but how are we planning on paying them all? I guess it depends on how much they want, but if they all decide that they deserve top 5 money, it's going to be really tough to do. Especially assuming we re-sign Scherff and Darby this season. Then we'll have to worry about Terry soon too.

One example:

Io through 2022

Allen 3 year extension through 2024

Payne 3 year extension starts 2023 (rookie option in 2022)

Sweat extension starts in 2024 (rookie option in 2023)

Chase extension starts in 2025 (rookie option in 2024).  

This is assuming we bring in fresh talent along the way and replace Io/Allen/Payne as their extensions are up.  
 

In effect, we’re paying big money to:

2021 - Io and Allen 

2022 - Io and Allen

2023 - Allen and Payne

2024 - Allen, Payne and Sweat (expensive, but likely doable)

2025 - Payne, Sweat, Young (this year is rough)

2026 - Sweat and Young

 

If the last years are light on guaranteed money, we have the option to cut/trade them prior to their final year, in effect only ever paying 2 at a time (will need replacements though!).  I will say that the rookie options are pretty pricey, so maybe the above is a bit disingenuous.  

Terry and our qb situation are going to be the kickers.  At least an extension of Scherff should be over by 2024 or 2025.

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

11 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

One example:

 

I posted this a couple of pages ago, but it got buried. It isn't perfect, but I used the 5th year options for each of the DL-men based on what it is now (it'll go up, I'm sure for Sweat and Chase). I also dropped of Settle and Io after their contracts expire since the logical plan would be to draft their replacements and let them hit FA, since you can't have 4 DTs under big contracts. I used Myles Garret's (2nd to Bosa for DE) contract extension for Chase and Trey Flowers (currently 5th) for Sweat. I used Chris Jones (3rd for IDL) for Allen and Payne. Finally, the "projected space" line doesn't include the projected salaries for each DL contract beyond 2021, but I put it there for an understanding of our overall cap situation. Pale-ish color represents the 5th year options for each player, and the yellow represents the extensions.

 

Obviously beyond 2024 the OTC tracking stops, but it would be just as much if not more than 2025. These numbers will drop as we extend players and sign FAs, include the 2021 draft class, etc. but it's just a snapshot.

Edited February 4, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[CommDownMan]

4 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I posted this a couple of pages ago, but it got buried.

 

Interesting analysis.  Hard to see full picture since many other pieces to get to that cap number. 

So you've got 4yr/80mill for Allen and Payne (20 AAV)

4yr/81 Sweat (20.25AAV)

4yr/117.3 for Chase. (29.3 AAV)

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nfl/2020/03/09/highest-paid-defensive-linemen-nfl-ranking-d-linemen-salary/5008147002/

 

Top DT Aaron Donald is 22.5, with a majority in the 16-17 range.  I'm would imagine 17 would be the highest we go since these guys aren't the top top guys.

 

Sweat when he is FA ~20 is likely fair if he continues to produce.

 

IDK what a Chase deal looks like, but Joey Bosa 27, so 29mill seems like a fair starting point (Although Bosa 27, Garrett 25, Lawrence 21...it drops off quickly).  I would think if his trajectory continues they try to make it 5 or 6 year deal. 

 

Franchise values go up, so the actual values will be higher come time to sign them.  But I think the 2020 tag values give a decent idea.  4 mill gap from DT to DE and our DTs are sooner.  Hoping those are less than your guess.

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-franchise-tag-meaning-deadline-2020-values-rules/1nn0kl8x7hg5210kevqk2oim4w

 

[mistertim]

37 minutes ago, Alexa said:

glad we didn't get Stafford. draft a qb and let him compete. and no more swing and miss RG3 trades on draft day.

 

By that logic the Chiefs shouldn't have given up a bunch to move up for Mahomes, because if he busted it would have been an epic fail.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@jsharrin55 yep, you're probably right about Allen and Payne not re-setting the market or getting top-of-the-market deals. But year over year contract AAV go up and the market tends to get re-set, although that might only be the case with QB and "EDGE." I do think you're right that Allen and Payne would probably fall in line with the 15-17m APY range, but I wanted to project higher just to be a bit conservative.

 

The truth is, by the time Sweat and Chase get to the end of their rookie deals, the EDGE contracts could be higher still, so it might balance out.

My point was, you can keep paying all 4 of these guys. You definitely get to a pinch point in 2024-2025 when the 4 of them could count $75 and $91m of your cap, which is enormous for one position group. But if the 2024 and 2025 salary cap is $250-280 million, it would still leave you with substantial money to pay guys elsewhere. Let's say $91m for those 4, you'd still have about $160-190 million to spend on the rest of the roster. And for context, the current roster as is (with Alex Smith) costs $149 million in 2021.

 

It might get tight, so I understand other's concerns about it, but beyond 2024 there aren't any contracts on the books (except for Collins, but I doubt he sees that contract year at that price). So if you WANT to keep those guys, and I am sure the FO projection folks are looking at these numbers and projecting out, you can do it ... just might be at the expense of some other position groups. But again, that's why you build through the draft and attack FA in a smart way. If they want to build around the DL, they can prioritize these guys. Of course the "smart" move would be to let Allen and/or Payne go and replace them with someone on a rookie contract, but it could be done.