Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Darrell Green Fan]

15 hours ago, wit33 said:

 

Would need a breakdown of what lucky is to the average QB versus the great or elite. In my view they all require a great deal of luck outside of Mahomes these days. Failed logic, in my view. 
 

What is an impressive win percentage for a QB in the playoffs?

 

 

Hoping to catch major breaks? Who even thinks this way as a team. 
 

I agree it’s a top priority, no doubt. I wouldnt want to overpay an average guy, but I do understand the logic of securing that spot with competence. 

 

I absolutely think you can win a SB with an average guy, but he must have some ability to create and extend plays. Not sure who at this stage, but we’ll see how the off season shakes out. Id like Kyle Allen to be retained and compete with whomever they bring in or Alex Smith and draft a young guy. 
 

Sam Darnold is a guy I like, but that’s getting into subjective discussion. For example, I’d rather pay Darnold 7 mil than retain Smith at 22mil. Darnold, Allen and rookie battling out at a cost of around 10-14mil sounds good to me. 

 

I think what the article is pointing out is situations such as the Ravens getting lucky that Joe Flacco played like Joe Montana in the Super Bowl run, that sort of thing.  Let's face it, Flacco can maybe win one and Grossman can get to one but those runs ended and were never repeated, both QBs were gone within a few years and the teams fell back into the pack.   The odds of being a contender year after year with an average QB are just too long for this to be a long term plan IMO. 

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

The QB by committee approach of Smith/Allen looks the best option, with a rookie added to the mix.
 

If Smith is done, then Allen will be here on a 1m deal. That will be the benchmark to beat in free agency. Now that may not seem high, but I think Allen, with this D plus an aggressive free agency period (non QB but add a top WR) and solid draft gets us 8-10 wins next year.

 

Any free agent QB getting 25-30mil needs to exceed that benchmark in my opinion.

 

Agree with this.  But lets say Zach Wilson or Fields can play to their hype.   If so this can be an 11-12 win kind of team and I'd go for it.  Again assuming they feel the same about these QBs.

 

We are putting out opinions on these QBs and its fun to talk about it.  I am doing it a ton.  But obviously we don't know what they think of these guys.  That's the great mystery.  

 

In that Dan Patrick interview, Rivera came off to me as a guy knowing that figuiring out QB is priority #1 in the off season.    

Edited December 16, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

Yeah agree. I think we’ll be in position to get a QB say picking ~19, I just don’t see the run on QBs in the first being as predicted. We could be helped greatly if the story of Elway liking Jones is true. 
 

In fact, moving from ~19 to 10-12 would be a pretty painless exercise.

[Skinsinparadise]

To me the point below is what drives me to get aggressive at QB

 

 

 

[Est.1974]

Have Smith return, Allen is the insurance for when he’s dinged up, draft Lance and plan to sit him for the year...

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Yeah agree. I think we’ll be in position to get a QB say picking ~19, I just don’t see the run on QBs in the first being as predicted. We could be helped greatly if the story of Elway liking Jones is true. 
 

In fact, moving from ~19 to 10-12 would be a pretty painless exercise.

 

For me I think the way it goes down is the first two picks will be QBs.  I am rooting for SD and Cincy to keep losing because if they do I think those picks would be the obvious sweet spot to trade up for Wilson or Fields.

 

I know mock drafters just irgnore that now and just fit picks to needs.  But they always do that at this time.  Once we get closer to the bullets flying I'd expect a zillion rumors about how Cincy or SD are auctioning their pick for the highest bidder.  I think they'd be crazy not to do that.  I like Sewell a lot but no way would I take any left tackle over having multiple high picks but heck even playing along that it does happen like that then we might have SD with the 4th pick so worse case I'd think they'd try to trade IMO. 

 

So who would be the competition for that pick?  Maybe Atlanta but you'd figure they would not be desperate to do it.  Ditto Carolina.  Maybe the Bears?  Pats?  Not sure about Denver but if they happen to love Mac Jones then they likely can get him without trading. 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[MisterPinstripe]

Would anyone pay for Prescott if he goes free? Odds are slim that happens, and I haven't been a big fan of his, but he has been putting up numbers recently. Of course crazy pricey as well. 

[Riggo-toni]

What about Darnold...ok, stop laughing and here me out. Tannehill looked like garbage under Gase, but now looks solid under decent coaching and a strong support cast. Has Darnold, who looked promising pre-Gase, been screwed up by the Gase factor? Could he experience a post-Gase renaissance?  And how the **** do idiots like Gase, Nolan, and Haslett keep getting hired?

[Playaction2Sanders]

I mean veteran wise I would love to see us trade for Deshaun, but it we're looking at rookies. I don't mind going after Mac Jones( since personally I dont feel Zach Wilson will fall to us) then I like Brock Purdy and Kenny Pickett outta Pitt..

 

 

 

[SemperFi Skins]

12 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said:

What about Darnold...ok, stop laughing and here me out. Tannehill looked like garbage under Gase, but now looks solid under decent coaching and a strong support cast. Has Darnold, who looked promising pre-Gase, been screwed up by the Gase factor? Could he experience a post-Gase renaissance?  And how the **** do idiots like Gase, Nolan, and Haslett keep getting hired?

 

 

Early on I was willing to trade a 3rd for Darnold before the deadline. He's looked like complete and total cheeks lately but I know the talent is there. I'd offer it up again in the offseason. I thought at one point a Haskins for Darnold trade would have made sense for both teams. 

 

Agreed that Gase ruins everything. I'd absolutely give him a shot. He's got wheels.

[mhd24]

Darnold is a million times better than Haskins, but I'm not trading anything of significance for him.  For one, he's close to FA.  For two, he's regressed really badly.  Thirdly, he seems injury prone.  

 

 

 

[Renegade7]

17 hours ago, KDawg said:

Grab the wrong vet and you’re saddled with a giant contract, possibly asset loss, and a very real possibility of losing some of our big time players because we can’t afford them. 
 

It is not a risk a young, rebuilding franchise can afford to take.

 

Id be willing to be 80% of this forum would be really happy to have Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson as our QB. 
 

We’re not going to wind up with them. 
 

So the next bet is a younger free agent who won’t saddle your team with a ridiculous contract.

 

You only sign the big contract guy if you are 100% positive they are going to make a tremendous difference. 

 

The defense isn't rebuilding, its rebuilt.

 

The longer we take to figure out QB, the more we waste them before we can't pay them all.

 

Thats a risk I dont want to take.

 

Currently only 42% of people voting here want a first round rookie right now, not 80%.  For me, I wouldn't expect them to meet their potential until we start having to figure out who to pay on defense.  Too late by then. 

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

The defense isn't rebuilding, its rebuilt.

 

The longer we take to figure out QB, the more we waste them before we can't pay them all.

 

Thats a risk I dont want to take.

 

Currently only 42% of people voting here want a first round rookie right now, not 80%.  For me, I wouldn't expect them to meet their potential until we start having to figure out who to pay on defense.  Too late by then. 

 

The offense is rebuilding. To a very large degree.

 

And if you think not having linebackers isn't going to bite us in the ass I don't know what to tell you.

 

I am not sure I want a first round rookie QB picking near 20. Top 10? Yes. 

[Panninho]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

To me the point below is what drives me to get aggressive at QB

 

 

I honestly feel like this hype is getting out of hand a bit. Yeah our defense has played awesome recently, no doubt. However, we have played only 3 teams that are statistically in the top half of total offense (Dallas is ranked there as well but mostly due to the first couple of weeks with Dak) - Arizona, Rams and the Browns and all of tem have scored at least 30 on us. Those were early in the season and we gifted them some turnovers, etc. but we haven't really played a good offense recently. Let's see how we do against the Seahawks first. I love that we get some recognition but the media is so over the top all the time. It's like there is only black or white and that sets you (or at least me) up for disappointment.

[Renegade7]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

The offense is rebuilding. To a very large degree.

 

There's a clock on keeping this dline together, thats my point.

 

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

And if you think not having linebackers isn't going to bite us in the ass I don't know what to tell you.

 

Never said that, ranking and results are ahead of schedule, that doesn't mean there's no room for improvement. 

 

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I am not sure I want a first round rookie QB picking near 20. Top 10? Yes. 

 

You entitled to your opinion, we won't get top ten now, so now what?  What i want and what we should do arwnt always gonna overlap, compromise is in order here.

[HigSkin]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

To me the point below is what drives me to get aggressive at QB

 

 

 

 

Yea, there is a lot of love going around on national media.  On Get Up in the U-nique Perspective segment, Dominique thinks their Super Bowl window opens next year because all the stars on this team are playing above their cap hit.  The whole panel agreed, saying even this year would be a tough out against Washington.

[Est.1974]

Darnold, into a group containing Smith/Allen I could live with. Takes away that immediate pressure to succeed.

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

 

 

You entitled to your opinion, we won't get top ten now, so now what?  What i want and what we should do arwnt always gonna overlap, compromise is in order here.

 

It goes both ways.

 

I can't answer what we do because I don't know how the story is going to start to play out.

 

There's a ton of options: Vet FA, later round rookie, trade up, trade, see what Allen/Smith/Montez can do.

 

Some of those options are, in my opinion, better. Some are worse. But there's no way of knowing without seeing how the story unfolds. 

[Skinsinparadise]

53 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said:

What about Darnold...ok, stop laughing and here me out. Tannehill looked like garbage under Gase, but now looks solid under decent coaching and a strong support cast. Has Darnold, who looked promising pre-Gase, been screwed up by the Gase factor? Could he experience a post-Gase renaissance?  And how the **** do idiots like Gase, Nolan, and Haslett keep getting hired?

 

Being from Florida, I watched a lot of Tannehill and he actually didn't look like garbage including under Gase.  He'd label him decent-OK.  But he didn't really take his game to a franchise level.  He wasn't wretched the way Darnold has been this season.  Darnold's best season ironically was last season under Gase.    Though now doubt Tannehill has taken his game up a notch with the Titans,

 

If they can't get the QB they want in the first round, I'd be ok with taking a flier on Darnold.  I saw weeks back some of the national types thinking the Jets could get a lower first rounder or high 2nd rounder and change for Darnold.  They thought there would be a market for him that beats Josh Rosen.  But the more lemons Darnold puts up to finish the season the more I think that's out the window.   

 

I was cool with Darnold before that draft.  I liked him, didn't love him and he wasn't my favorite in that draft.  But I'd ride him over the standard 2nd-3rd round type in this draft.  If I would be forced to bet on him being a successful QB or not, i'd put money on not.  But my philosophy is once you get past the top prospects in the draft then just roll the dice.  I'd be ok with rolling thr dice on Darnold if the price isn't high.    But that would be my Plan C not Plan A. 

5 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

Yea, there is a lot of love going around on national media.  On Get Up in the U-nique Perspective segment, Dominique thinks their Super Bowl window opens next year because all the stars on this team are playing above their cap hit.  The whole panel agreed, saying even this year would be a tough out against Washington.

 

I see it in a similar way we have a unique window potentially.  Early in this season, i was OK with sort of a slow burn rebuild approach.  I don't feel that way now.  I think we got a SF 2020 SB caliber defense.  Now we need a QB and another weapon or two.  We have other needs too but that would go a long way IMO.

[Warhead36]

Darnold is damaged goods. Hard pass.

[CommDownMan]

So this got long, but hopefully you guys enjoy...I did this exercise keeping Smith and drafting a future guy.

Trying to get an idea of what “49 mill” in cap space would get us and how we can answer (what I see) the biggest weaknesses on our team. 

Cap space currently - $49 mill

Biggest question here is Alex Smith return (I don’t see this entirely in our hands).  ~15 mill savings if not.  However, for the purposes of this exercise, I’m going to say the skins keep him.

Landon Collins would be net negative cap space, so I expect a likely return. 

 Moses has a 9.6mill number, with 7.7 savings.  He’s playing well enough and has a decent cap that I see him staying.

Bostic has a $3 mill hit and currently, I’d see that as the likeliest cut depending on how other things shake out.  However, for the moment, I am not going to cut for this exercise.

No cap changes, based on cuts.

-------------------------------------

Used this to get baseline for salaries and cap hits.  Cap Hit Year 1 = CHY1

G - Brandon Scherff – 4yr-$60 mill ($15mill SB, Salary 5, 10, 14, 16) – Cap Hit Year 1 $8.75mill

C - Chase R – 4yr $36 mill ($10 mill SB, Salary 4, 6, 8, 10) – Cap Hit Year 1 $6.5 mill

S - Anthony Harris/Justin Simmons – Listed above but I’m going to roll with Reaves (the cap hit here would be ~8-9 million and I think bigger need is LB).

LB – Jayon Brown – Recently injured He is 25 (fitting right in age wise over guys like Lavonte David) – Prediction is resign with Titans.  I’m saying we go a little higher to get him in town.  4yr, 52 mill ($12 mill SB, 6, 9, 12, 13) – CHY1 - $9 mill   With this signing we’d keep Bostic at 3 mill or KPL if he’d sign for similar.

WR – Juju / Corey Davis – 4 yr / 68 mill ($16 mill SB, 8, 14 , 15, 15) – CHY1 $12 mill (Corey listed above, but we've seen a bit of Juju talk)

QB - Kyle Allen - ERFA should be about 750K.  With top 51 rules, doesn't change cap much.

Additions: Add 36 mill to cap (leaves ~13 million). 

TBD cause IDK how to guess contracts for all abd what the team would want to do

DE – Kerrigan, LB – Kevin Pierre-Louis, CB – Ronald Darby, K - Dustin Hopkins, CB - Fabian Moreau

__________________________________________

Draft:

We have momentum, so I'm going to do this exercise assuming ~25th pick in the draft.

Using trade for Mahomes as a precedent, I think there is a decent shot at doing 2020 1^st, 2020 2^nd (maybe 3^rd) and 2021 1^st to get to 8-10 for QB Zach Wilson.  Again, I’m going to assume worst case and include 2020 2^nd.  Besides for whatever reason we have much better success in the 3^rd, haha.  IDK who takes the trade, but I think this is at least fair.

That would leave 3/3/4/5/7/7.  Draft picks would be about 6 mill ($7 remaining ).

_______________________________________

Offensive line would be unchanged, 3rd round or later tackle not likely to be immediate upgrade (maybe Darrisaw type can be had and give us hope?).  LT would be nice, but I don’t see a fit with plan above.  Not having 2022 1st rounder would make this tougher to answer next year if we don’t currently have an answer.

 

RB – Gibson / McKissic / Barber and probably at least one draft pick.  Draft seems deep and the 4th or 5th could add a nice option.

 

WR – Adding Corey Davis or Juju gives a solid (much needed) 2nd option.  I wouldn’t be against a draft pick here, but I think adding the strong FA and working to find a 3rd option with Sims, Harmon, Gandy-Golden is likely best use of resources.

 

QB – Smith, Allen, Wilson would be good mix of experience and potential.  Haskins would cost money, unless it was a post June 1st trade.  Not sure about that, would be 4 mill hit as a post June first move.

 

TE – Logan Thomas and ???  Probably Marcus Baugh and a draft pick.

 

The only real 2021 change here is Juju/Davis (which would be big) and an RB might give insurance if not more.  Lacks excitement from a 2021 change, but if we could add Wilson and Darrisaw, I would think most of us could get behind that for future excitement.

_____________________________________

Defense:

DL: No change.  Allen has a 10 mill cap, so could definitely do a long term deal and stay around that 10 mill number.  We’d need to decide of Kerrigan and idk what that contract would look like.  I think he’d test the market and see what would be out there.

LB: Javon Brown in the middle to add to current group would be a very enjoyable addition.

CB: We’d have to see cost for Darby / Moreau, but I’d imagine we’d try and work something out.

S: Curl, Reaves have done well.  Collins we need to see health and Everett/Apke as backups.  I think at least 1 of day 3 picks is in secondary. 

____________________________________

With money going to Darby / Kerrigan a few others, I think we’d be close to cap based on this.  Would that feel like an improvement for next year or is giving up future 1^st and 2020 2^nd for QB of future too much?  We'd basically be same team with a big upgrade MLB and WR (and not much else at least on paper).

2022 we would be cutting Smith if he was to stay 2021, with the additions above (and I didn’t do all the math here) we’d have ~60 million in cap and in house players to pay.  Thoughts?

 

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by jsharrin55

[Skinsinparadise]

48 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

The defense isn't rebuilding, its rebuilt.

 

The longer we take to figure out QB, the more we waste them before we can't pay them all.

 

Thats a risk I dont want to take.

 

Currently only 42% of people voting here want a first round rookie right now, not 80%.  For me, I wouldn't expect them to meet their potential until we start having to figure out who to pay on defense.  Too late by then. 

 

I agree with this general take.   I think though the fast track might be a rookie QB for the simple reason that you are morey likely to find that freakish talent in the draft then it being handed to you on a silver platter in FA.  Really good QBs rarely hit FA.  My best guess right now that the best veteran options will be Brissett, Winston, Fitzgerald.

 

We are so accustomed to shopping in the 2nd tier aisle of QBs in the draft that we are almost trained to think they need years to develop.  We don't have the option to draft the freaks at QB typically.  The one time we did, RG3, we won right away.  But yeah dudes that are quasi projects like Patrick Ramsey, Jason Campbell, Dwayne Haskins and heck even Kirk Cousins are somewhat developmental take time kind of QBs.  Dudes that have talent but not freakishly so.

 

You add for example a dude like Justin Fields who can run a 4.4 and has an arm -- it wouldn't be outrageous to see some fast success like we've seen from Wilson, RG3 to an extent Murray, etc.  I can argue Zach Wilson perhaps ditto.   Chasing a high upside/high ceiling QB especially ones with mobilty might be the fast track to success. 

 

In theory, it would be better to have Matt Ryan now for example over Justin Fields but I seriously doubt that's going to be the choice.  It's more likely Winston or Fitzgerald over Wilson/Fields. 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[justice98]

1 hour ago, Playaction2Sanders said:

I mean veteran wise I would love to see us trade for Deshaun, but it we're looking at rookies. I don't mind going after Mac Jones( since personally I dont feel Zach Wilson will fall to us) then I like Brock Purdy and Kenny Pickett outta Pitt..

 

 

 

 

I think Pickett just announced he was returning to Pitt.  Not that he cant change his mind, but a mid-late round prospect like that usually doesnt.  

 

Either way, these guys feel like Gardner Minshew territory as a ceiling.  Which is not a knock, you can get solid QB play with a guy like that, I just don't think you're moving the needle with a guy like that.

[Recovering_Spaz]

1 hour ago, Riggo-toni said:

What about Darnold...ok, stop laughing and here me out. Tannehill looked like garbage under Gase, but now looks solid under decent coaching and a strong support cast. Has Darnold, who looked promising pre-Gase, been screwed up by the Gase factor? Could he experience a post-Gase renaissance?  And how the **** do idiots like Gase, Nolan, and Haslett keep getting hired?

 

Assuming the coaching staff likes him, this might be the optimal play. I'd still start Alex for the year - Darnold would benefit from learning how to play the position from a pro and a real coaching staff. We could then focus on drafting other needs like Oline, WR2, LB, etc.

[Skinsinparadise]

17 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Darnold is damaged goods. Hard pass.

 

I am strongly leaning in the direction of your point, I am only OK with Darnold if they exhausted other avenues and the choice is using a 3rd rounder on a QB or rolling the dice on Darnold.  In that context, I'd be ok with Darnold.  But I am not even a little jazzed about Darnold.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Skinsinparadise