Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Est.1974]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Is for example Ryan Fitzpatrick that obviously better than Alex or Kyle Allen

No I said earlier, add a stud MLB, maybe FS, get a top WR, re-sign our OL, Kyle Allen gets you 8-10 wins without breaking sweat.

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by UK SKINS FAN 74

[method man]

1 hour ago, PartyPosse said:

That would mean we’re paying QBs 60 million next year.

I am assuming you cut Smith or he retires under this scenario

[NoCalMike]

If Rivera is all in on the idea that with adding a few key pieces this team can make a legitimate run in 2021 then as a franchise you usually are willing to sacrifice more in order to bring the "right QB" in.   I don't think Fitzpatrick is a QB that fits the bill for a team that thinks it is playoff bound. Matt Ryan, Stafford, Rivers....I'd take any of those 3 in the scenario that Rivera has evaluated the game film over the course of the season and genuinely believes one of those QB's would be the difference for the team.  All 3 are still playing at a high level and paired with this defense it could come with very good results. 

 

I just don't want 2020's run, where a possible division title happens just as much because of how bad the rest of the division is, clouding the original plan of building the franchise back up slowly and correctly.  It doesn't mean that improvement won't happen faster than expected along the way (or the opposite) but we can't forget that the NFC East in 2020 is presenting unique opportunities that normally would not be there, and if this team was 6-7 under a more "normal" season, we would all still be happy with the shown improvement but everything else that is *already* being hypothesized on would likely not even be part of the conversation.....yet.

 

[DWinzit]

My gut is Allen is the only returning QB...unless they keep Haskins to hold the clip board

 

If they want a game manager with some mobility other than Allen it will be Jacoby Brissett 

Brissett>Allen

 

I would really like Ridder in the 2nd or 3rd round allowing the 1st rounder to be used to fill other large needs

Edited December 16, 2020 by DWinzit

[CobraCommander]

I actually think we are going to have the same slate of QB's going into next season with Alex being the starter and Kyle the backup and Dwayne in sweat pants.

[Darth Tater]

Just now, Florgon79 said:

I actually think we are going to have the same slate of QB's going into next season with Alex being the starter and Kyle the backup and Dwayne in sweat pants.

If Dwanye is here next season, he'd better at least be our number 2.  If you think he's only going to be 3, he needs to be traded or cut and a project guy needs to take that slot.

[NoCalMike]

Fitzpatrick to me is a QB that would have been a better fit for this season, when the team had low expectations and he is able to come in with less pressure and just play tough, sound, mistake free football for as long as he can before he transforms into Pickspatrick on the 3rd full moon of the season.   I don't think he is the right QB for a team once the coaches feel they are established and actually ready to make the run. 

2 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

If Dwanye is here next season, he'd better at least be our number 2.  If you think he's only going to be 3, he needs to be traded or cut and a project guy needs to take that slot.

 

Agreed, if he can't even crack backup status going into 2021....why even keep him on the roster?

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, Darth Tater said:

0 faith in Team's ability to pick a QB at the top. Hell, Trevor Lawrence would probably be a bust if we had that pick.

4 firsts in 8 years, 1 second and a 4rth and that was the only decent pick we had. 

[Anselmheifer]

12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I did mention Rivers.  

 

Old and blind I am. Also, laid up on the sofa with COVID, so probably not on my game.

I generally agree about a rookie QB, I think. We will have a rookie QB playing behind Smith/Allen. Trey Lance looks most likely to me. I know you like Mac Jones and he could be a guy at 19 also. I'm just not thrilled with the idea of those guys. They seem like a shot in the dark. I'd rather have a 1st round OT than a shot in the dark. 

To me, if we have a 25% chance of hitting big time on Lance, maybe I'd rather build us up as a running/short passing ball control team and roll with what we have. Or, make a trade up for a truly elite guy. 

[CobraCommander]

4 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

If Dwanye is here next season, he'd better at least be our number 2.  If you think he's only going to be 3, he needs to be traded or cut and a project guy needs to take that slot.

 

Well, I don't think anyone is going to trade for him and we already have a project qb on the PS. We have however proven that our QB's can't stay healthy, so the more the merrier! I obviously don't know what is actually going to happen. I just think we are probably seeing a pretty close approximation of the roster at qb already on our team for next year.

[Koolblue13]

The QB being pick prone doesn't bother me as much now with this defense, as long as he is also prone to big plays. 

 

Winston is really intriguing. He can wing it anywhere. Great wheels.

[Darth Tater]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

4 firsts in 8 years, 1 second and a 4rth and that was the only decent pick we had. 

My lack of faith goes even further back (1942 to be specific) because we failed with different FO structures and in different eras.

[Koolblue13]

Just now, Darth Tater said:

My lack of faith goes even further back (1942 to be specific) because we failed with different FO structures and in different eras.

I forget just how old you are Mr. Burns.

[Darth Tater]

2 minutes ago, Florgon79 said:

 

Well, I don't think anyone is going to trade for him and we already have a project qb on the PS. We have however proven that our QB's can't stay healthy, so the more the merrier! I obviously don't know what is actually going to happen. I just think we are probably seeing a pretty close approximation of the roster at qb already on our team for next year.

The project guy will either be good enough to make the 53 or we need to find another project guy.

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

I forget just how old you are Mr. Burns.

Not that old.  My real football fandom only goes back to 1972.

[CobraCommander]

1 minute ago, Darth Tater said:

The project guy will either be good enough to make the 53 or we need to find another project guy.

If he's good enough to make the 53 then he's probably not that much of a project. If your meaning of project is someone who is ready to play then that guy probably isn't a project. Projects take several years to develop and I'm sure a majority of the time, they don't pan out. 

 

Are you talking about a late round draft pick? If that guy is miraculously good enough to be on the 53 man roster then we have ourselves a diamond in the rough, not a project. 

[Darth Tater]

1 minute ago, Florgon79 said:

If he's good enough to make the 53 then he's probably not that much of a project. If your meaning of project is someone who is ready to play then that guy probably isn't a project. Projects take several years to develop and I'm sure a majority of the time, they don't pan out. 

 

Are you talking about a late round draft pick? If that guy is miraculously good enough to be on the 53 man roster then we have ourselves a diamond in the rough, not a project. 

No, a project guy IS a guy that is good enough to make the 53.  Most project guys won't even make the team in year 2.

[CobraCommander]

Just now, Darth Tater said:

No, a project guy IS a guy that is good enough to make the 53.  Most project guys won't even make the team in year 2.

Well then you and I have different definitions of what a project QB is. Steven Montez is a project to me. I kinda doubt he'll make the 53 man roster next year, but again i'm just guessing about all of this. 

[Darth Tater]

5 minutes ago, Florgon79 said:

Well then you and I have different definitions of what a project QB is. Steven Montez is a project to me. I kinda doubt he'll make the 53 man roster next year, but again i'm just guessing about all of this. 

It is fine for a project QB to only make the PS in year 1 but the first tell that the project is a fail is if he can't at least win the last QB slot in year 2. If Montez is not good enough to take the last spot on 53, it is time to move to another project. Further, unless you think Haskins is a project, don't know why he'd be on the 53.

[Renegade7]

1 hour ago, Rdskns2000 said:

How many times do we have trade with Philly? They would get the better end on any trade.

 

Guy named Sonny would like to have a word with you : )

 

1 hour ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Wentz should be traded to Indy. He had his best year when Reich was the Eagles OC.

 

That makes sense.  Wouldn't Philly have 5o eat that signing bonus money?  That'd leave us with a reasonable contract to renegotiate.

 

I dont get what happened to Wentz, but a second or a third with a contract renovation i wouldn't be against if for any reason we won't have the same dead cap situation as philly will if we move on from him, too.

[CobraCommander]

2 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

It is fine for a project QB to only make the PS in year 1 but the first tell that the project is a fail is if he can't at least win the last QB slot in year 2. If Montez is not good enough to take the last spot on 53, it is time to move to another project. Further, unless you think Haskins is a project, don't know why he'd be on the 53.

 

Like I said, most project players fail. The only reason the keep Montez around year 2 on the PS is for familiarity with the system so as to be able to work with the other PS players.

Haskins is a project. Problem is you should never pick a project in the 1st round. We erred considerably on that one. I don't think he should be on the roster. I'm just making the guess that he will be.

[PartyPosse]

1 hour ago, method man said:

I am assuming you cut Smith or he retires under this scenario

Even if you cut him he’s still due like 11 million against the cap.

[wit33]

22 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

I can answer this but it feels like a trap question.  😀

 

Exactly lol.

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You I am sure can follow the point that if the PFF thinks a team would be the underdog throughout the playoffs as he put it -- you often need to get some breaks to pull off upset after upset in the playoffs.  For example, injuries.  It helped us how Deebo got hurt at the beginning of the game on Sunday, facing the Eagles without much of their starting O line, stuff like that.  If you don't agree.  Cool.  I don't care enough about the point to argue it.

 

I agree breaks often take place, but that’s a non controllable and cannot be predicted. Sure, it most likely will happen to either side... I agree. 
 

Though, the “breaks” don’t have a preference to victimizing the elite or average. 

 

 

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You can also win with a below average QB.  It's all about playing the odds.    IMO the odds that you are going to win with an average QB isn't as high as with an above average QB.  
 

 

Above average or below average aren’t moving the needle much for me unless they have some playmaking ability and are at a good cost (4-10% of the cap for the above average). Don’t even really like going that high for the above guy and only will entertain if he can make plays in and outside the pocket. 

 

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If Alex is a distinctly better QB than Darnold than the 22 million to 7 million comparison would mean nothing to me. 

 

I can’t argue this and would stomach the cost if it meant the team would be in the playoffs and a potential contender. 
 

Im losing it for Smith without his legs, this was the case for me before his recent poor outing. Thought the Steeler game was very close from getting ugly due to poor play by the offense and Smith in the 1st half. 

 

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Correct me if I am wrong.  I recall you look at QBs somewhat like buying value stocks except for the best of the best.  Using a stock analogy if you can get Kodac which is valued at $6 at a bargain price of $4, that's a heck of a lot better than buying Apple stock at $132 that's worth $120.  Then you delve into the semantics of how much of a value investor you are at the QB spot or something like that because you'd never overpay.  
 

 

I’m not romantic or married to any one way of doing things. The value is ever moving depending on the interdependent variables involved for that particular season or window. 
 

If the argument is having an elite guy, then I’m all in financially for the blue chip stock.

 

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I got the concept.  But where I depart from it is IMO you are going to make more money on Apple than Kodak even if you got the later stock at the more bargain price.  The football equivalent point would be i am winning the SB with Apple not Kodac.  My goal isn't to get a bargain at QB and just take my chances that the rest will work itself out.  My point is that the rest is unlikely to work itself out.  It doesn't matter to me how many exceptions to the rule we can think of that worked out.   I am a majority of the time over the exceptions kind of guy.  I used to be a TA for stats in college and I never really got the working with the odds on your side versus against the odds thing kicked out of me. 
 

 

Kodac in the 80s and 90s though  or if you were in on it before this last summer @ $2 it would’ve been the equivalent to a SB win.

 

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I recall you debating this point last year touting Andy Dalton as a bargain pick, he's like a beaten down stock, and you can get him at a better price for that reason.  So sort of a Dogs of the Dow approach.  I get it.  Personally, i think its perfect if the goal is 9-7.  I think it will fail if you want to go 11-5 and win a SB.    And no i am not saying its impossible to win the other way.  Nothing is impossible.  But personally i am not betting on dudes like Andy Dalton or Ryan Fitzpatrick hoisting NFL trophies even if i got them at a steal.
 

 

I’d still be up for having Dalton compete for the job next year 5-7mil. Only upside in a situation like this, no risk. 
 

The model above is achievable and controllable, where as you’re hoping for the next elite guy. Obviously, if you’re arguing from a position of I prefer elite over average, you got me. 
 

We agree that getting average to good play from a guy on his rookie deal is the holy grail, due to it being very feasible. I think you’d also agree securing a cheap beaten down stock of a veteran isn’t mutually exclusive getting a young guy. Do both. 
 

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And yeah I can't quantify my theory but neither can you.   The PFF guys who are all about quantifying everything stress the heck out of getting a top QB in the interviews I've listened to from them.  They could be wrong.  Who knows.  I don't believe in overpaying for average QBs but that's a different debate.  I am not overpaying for Dalton but instead ignoring Dalton outright as a target if the goal is getting a starter and winning the SB.   But if you can get someone really good whether its overpaying in draft capital or salary, you do it within reason.  IMO you don't win SBs with Andy Dalton types.  There is a reason IMO that he's gone 0-4 in the playoffs.
 

 

My guess is you can go back in a few of those games and find incredible fickleness in those losses.
 

Admittedly, I don’t put too much stock into playoff records for QBs due to the many variables involved and sample size data being so small. For example, Ryan Tannehill has a winning playoff record and completed 15 total passes in the two games combined. I think there’s many of these arguments for either side, which makes the data unreliable in many ways, IMO. 

 

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Where I agree with your theory is playing the draft.    If you get a good young QB on the cheap that's that's the Holy Grail but not IMO a cheap veteran who is average at best at a bargain price.   Yeah it was nice to get Keenum for example cheap 2 years ago.  But so what?  

The value diminishes dramatically for the average to above started at a great pay rate if the team isn’t solid to good around them. Keenums value to the Vikings was immense at 2-3mil that season, with a good team around him and a system he knew very well. Keenum would be on the low end for me in terms of value guys, in large part because of his physical limitations. I like guys who were solid with previous teams and have good to great baseline level of talent. Mariota is a name I like for next year, combined with a high rookie investment. 

 

[Koolblue13]

Maybe with the giant cap hits going on someone will give us a pick to take their QB and his salary. We have a ****load of cash.

[kingdaddy]

Start wrapping your head around Cam Newton....he's coming, I'm convinced of it. I think RR wanted to bring him in this year but with DH and the Alex contract situation it made more sense to bring in Allen. Next year there is no reason for RR not to bring in Cam if RR is convinced that Cam can take us to the big dance. Dwayne will be out of the way next year and Cam can slide in and start teaming up with Turner again. With Gibson playing the McCaffery role the Panthers offense will be all set in DC. I'm not a Cam fan but if RR is then I'm on board. 

[jnhutchi3]

2 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Start wrapping your head around Cam Newton....he's coming, I'm convinced of it. I think RR wanted to bring him in this year but with DH and the Alex contract situation it made more sense to bring in Allen. Next year there is no reason for RR not to bring in Cam if RR is convinced that Cam can take us to the big dance. Dwayne will be out of the way next year and Cam can slide in and start teaming up with Turner again. With Gibson playing the McCaffery role the Panthers offense will be all set in DC. I'm not a Cam fan but if RR is then I'm on board. 

I would rather see Washington gamble on a young guy who has struggled in the NFL so far, instead of Cam Newton.  Newton can't even throw the ball anymore, due to all of his injuries.  

 

Maybe someone like Josh Rosen, who is only in his 3rd year and can probably be acquired for a bargain basement price from Miami.