Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Thinking Skins]

12 hours ago, SkinsFootball said:

 

He fits the criteria of a buy low good upside option. What would it take to get him? 3rd round pick? I like the idea of a former high round pick(talent) still young with a chip on their shoulder. Obviously he adds the mobility that we covet. A bigger, stronger, faster version of Allen and Heinicke. You could have them all compete and barring injury the show rolls on. 

 

Of the lower tier options I like:

1) Mariota

2) Darnold

3) Tyrod/Trubisky

Interesting. Why would you have Darnold above Trubisky? I admit I haven't watched much of these guys play, but here are some stats I was looking at: 

 

Mariota: 

QBRs: 48, 59, 58, 53, 35, 98

Ratings: 91, 95, 79, 92, 92, 83

Comp%: 62, 61, 62, 68, 59, 60

ypa: 7.6, 7.6, 7.1, 7.6, 7.5, 8.1

INT: 10, 9, 15, 8, 2, 1

FUM: 10, 9, 2, 9, 3, 0

1Ds: 142, 157, 149, 121, 50, 11

1Ds/Comp: 61, 56, 53, 53, 52, 64

 

Darnold: 

QBRs: 45, 45, 40

Ratings: 77, 84, 72

Comp%: 57, 61, 59

ypa: 6.9, 6.9, 6.1

int: 15, 13, 11

fum: 5, 11, 4

1Ds: 130, 147, 109

1Ds/Comp: 54, 53, 50

 

Trubisky: 

QBRs: 32, 71, 41 ,61

Ratings: 77, 95, 83, 93

Comp: 59, 66, 63, 67

ypa: 6.6, 7.4, 6.1, 6.9

int: 7, 12 ,10, 8

fum: 10, 6, 5, 6

1Ds: 100, 163, 156, 124

1Ds/Comp: 51, 56, 48, 62

 

I'm definitely not a rah rah Trubisky guy, but it seems like in just about every category (especially if you discount his rookie year) he's better than Darnold in just about every category. Even in his worse year (2019), he was just about on par with what Darnold is putting out. Mariota looks like he was playing better for the first part of his career and then hit a wall that last year in Tennessee. So the question is what Mariota would we be getting? Those first 4 years where he seemed to be on the rise, or the last year? 

 

But in terms of what it would cost I think I would say 

1. Tribusky

2. Mariota

3. Darnold

[Skinsinparadise]

Just listened to Keim.  He said he knows they like Carr but he doesn't think the Raiders trade him unless they can get Watson.  To quote him "He knows they are going to target several other QBs."   

 

Though he said he didn't know whom the targets were.  So it sounds like that's all he got from his source.   He then speculated on whom without citing that he knows that's their targets.  So he goes Watson if he became available.  Darnold, he said he knows some coaches in the NFL like him, he said Mariota might be interesting, possibly FAs.   He said it's possible they return all the QBs if they strike out in their targets. 

[Jericho]

7 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

You are severely underestimating the massive upgrade from gimpy Alex Smith or Dwayne Haskins to Derek Carr. Its significant.

 

So are you saying we should sign Fitzpatrick because he costs less? Would you rather go 8-8 or 10-6? Fitzpatrick is far worse than Carr, hes just as likely to throw a 4 int game as he is a 4 TD game, that isn't what I would want in a QB. 

 

What's your ideal solution then? I'm curious because you seem pretty adamant that there are better options available to the team. 

 

I'd rather get a real solution at QB, not a quick fix panic move. Carr isn't the real answer at QB, so any assets you give up for him are gone. If he's costing multiple 1st or 2nd days picks, I'd rather use those on positions of need and seek a QB elsewhere. Maybe that means having an inferior QB in 2021.

 

Going 10-6, even with Carr, seems fairly optimistic. It could happen, but Carr's only done it once in 8 seasons. And yeah, I get that the Raiders aren't literally the same as this team. But the point is you might go 10-6, then 8-8, then 7-9 and then be "we need a QB" if you trade for Carr. He's not a solution, he's a stop gap. Why would I want to trade for a stop gap? I'm not looking to add 1-2 wins in 2021 over Ryan Fitzpatrick, I'm looking for someone to add 2-3 wins every year for the next decade.

[Thinking Skins]

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2021/01/05/chicago-bears-quarterbacks-first-four-seasons-mitchell-trubisky-jay-cutler/

 

During Cutler’s first four seasons, he started in 56 games, going 34-22 (.607). He threw 82 touchdowns, 64 interceptions for 12,292 yards and an 81.9 passer rating.

Cutler had a winning record in three of his first four seasons, along with one playoff berth. That lone playoff berth came in 2010, where he led the Bears to the NFC Championship.

In Trubisky’s first four seasons as the Bears quarterback, he is 29-21 (.580) as a starter, throwing for 64 touchdowns, 37 interceptions for 10,609 yards and an 87.2 passer rating.

 

 

In those winning seasons for both quarterbacks, Cutler went 27-13, throwing 55 touchdowns and 37 interceptions with an 84.3 passer rating. Trubisky, on the other hand, is 25-13, throwing 57 touchdowns and 30 interceptions with an 89.8 passer rating.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Thinking Skins

[HigSkin]

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Just listened to Keim.  He said he knows they like Carr but he doesn't think the Raiders trade him unless they can get Watson.  To quote him "He knows they are going to target several other QBs."   

 

Though he said he didn't know whom the targets were.  So it sounds like that's all he got from his source.   He then speculated on whom without citing that he knows that's their targets.  So he goes Watson if he became available.  Darnold, he said he knows some coaches in the NFL like him, he said Mariota might be interesting, possibly FAs.   He said it's possible they return all the QBs if they strike out in their targets. 

 

I listened as well and wondered why Keim didn't say anythong about trading up in the draft?

[KDawg]

Care improves us but the rate of improvement isn’t worth a first. Maybe a second but that’s pushing it.

 

With a first place schedule our current guys (with no other additions or subtractions to the roster) are probably around a 5-12, 6-11...

 

Adding Carr probably bumps us up a few games.

 

Not the kind of upgrade that we should be spending top draft capital on. Let alone two ones.

 

With good FA and draft periods the team as is is likely around 7-10, 8-9.

 

Add Carr and again it’s probably 9 or 10 wins.

 

Watson... 10-7, 11-6, 12-5ish

 

A rookie THIS season probably leaves us in the 9 or 10 win range but allows us to build for 2022... which I feel is the year we should be looking at as our first real competitive season realistically.

 

Now... maybe our guys take a big leap. Maybe we get some big names in FA and the draft and we get better fast. It’s all possible. But just trying to lay out my thoughts here.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

I am not a Trubisky guy but I'd agree he's better than Darnold.  Trubisky aside from his rookie season has about a 2:1 TD to INT ratio.  That's decent.  Darnold threw more INTs than TDs this year and he did with averaging 184 yards a game, that's abysmal.  He has another season where his INTs-TDs were almost 1:1.   And  Trubisky can run.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am not a Trubisky guy but I'd agree he's better than Darnold.  Trubisky aside from his rookie season has about a 2:1 TD to INT ratio.  That's decent.  Darnold threw more INts than TDs this year and he did with averaging 184 yards a game, that's abysmal.  He has another season where his INTs-TDs were almost 1:1.   And I'd Trubisky can run.

We’re going to wind up with Darnold because of you. I can feel it.

[DWinzit]

If the deem Watson and the top 4 prospects are too expensive they should focus more on involvement in 3 way Watson deals with either Miami (Tua) or the Raiders (Carr or Mariota).

I would be happy with Tua or settled with Carr or Mariota to match with Allen and Heinicke

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

I listened as well and wondered why Keim didn't say anythong about trading up in the draft?

 

Yep he didn't.  He has said before (not sure if its speculation or he's heard) but more so Standig believe they are more into a veteran. 

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

We’re going to wind up with Darnold because of you. I can feel it.

 

Yep, they seem to go on these QBs threads find out what I don't want to happen and then proceed to do exactly that.   

 

Maybe that streak will be broken though, they at least tried to do something that I want this off season, with the Stafford offer. 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Thinking Skins]

I'm just looking at some stats for a bunch of these QBs and Tribusky is about on the same level as Bridgewater for me. Given he's two years younger and doesn't have the injury history. It seems like Bridgewater is the better passer but I'm afraid of committing to him long term. 

 

Trubisky has also led his teams to the playoffs on a similar build, this great defense and a running game. I'm more interested in what happened to him in 2019 and why he was so badly thought of in Chicago. Is it just hindsight and seeing that they could have had Watson and Mahomes? He's not going to command a contract the likes of a Dak but he's a free agent and could stabilize the QB position. 

[DefinitelyMaybe]

What happened with Mariota in Tennessee?

 

I have basically 0 knowledge of the situation, seems strong, mobile, good arm

Was he just not showing that consistently there?

[kingdaddy]

15 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

We don't have the ammunition for Watson. 

I would agree, but, how many teams are willing to pony up what Houston is asking for? If no one, and the price drops, and they want to trade him out of conference, and they want players in return then maybe we would have the ammunition. Maybe they would consider two 1sts, Montez Sweat and a 2nd? Don't know that I'd pay that but the longer the Watson thing plays out then more teams will find another QB causing them to likely bow out of the bidding. 

[Gurgeh]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yep he didn't.  He has said before (not sure if its speculation or he's heard) but more so Standig believe they are more into a veteran. 

 

To me that feels like:

a) they think they can win now with Stafford / Carr level QB backed up with whatever picks are left from the deal to get them

b) trading up would cost so many picks that the impact on the team would outweigh the benefits in the short term, and that's assuming they can find a willing trade partner.

 

Given where we draft I think the best option may be to take a mid-round draft flyer on a QB who didn't get a chance to play much last year. There's a few mentioned in 

https://riggosrag.com/2021/02/02/washington-football-team-ranking-quarterback-options-early-feb-edition/3/  . 

 

I'm discounting the option of getting Watson (too easy to get outbid or overbid) or Prescott (can't see him hitting FA unless Dallas trades a whole bunch of picks for Watson or to move up).

 

 

 

 

[kingdaddy]

10 hours ago, RWJ said:

Who would have thought Stafford would have gone for 2 1st and a 3rd?  Not I.  

And a starting QB...

[Skinsinparadise]

36 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I'm just looking at some stats for a bunch of these QBs and Tribusky is about on the same level as Bridgewater for me. Given he's two years younger and doesn't have the injury history. It seems like Bridgewater is the better passer but I'm afraid of committing to him long term. 

 

Trubisky has also led his teams to the playoffs on a similar build, this great defense and a running game. I'm more interested in what happened to him in 2019 and why he was so badly thought of in Chicago. Is it just hindsight and seeing that they could have had Watson and Mahomes? He's not going to command a contract the likes of a Dak but he's a free agent and could stabilize the QB position. 

 

I am not just looking at stats either, I've watched enough of Darnold to know I don't want him.  But his stats are really sad and worth mentioning -- any dude who both struggles to move the ball and also has a horrible TD/INT ratio has some serious issues.  

 

As for Trubisky, i've watched him some, not a lot.  He had a decent run at the end of the season if you go through his stats.  His TD-INT ratio is actually above average as opposed to abysmal in Darnold's case so I put some stock in that.  Not that I want Trubisky but I'd take him over Darnold. 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[goskins10]

21 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I would agree, but, how many teams are willing to pony up what Houston is asking for? If no one, and the price drops, and they want to trade him out of conference, and they want players in return then maybe we would have the ammunition. Maybe they would consider two 1sts, Montez Sweat and a 2nd? Don't know that I'd pay that but the longer the Watson thing plays out then more teams will find another QB causing them to likely bow out of the bidding. 

 

This is not just directed just at you as others have made similar suggestions but I keep seeing people mention Sweat or our other DL in trades. For me we finally have a team strength. I do not want to trade that away. Maybe Payne, or Allen are available if we don't think we can sign them. Or maybe Ioan who has troubles staying healthy (I love his play but he can't stay on the field) or Settle who despite some peoples opinion would likely start on more Dlines. But Sweat? Dude just had an amazing break out year. I even saw people mention Young as trade bait. Since he and Young 1st rd picks we have them for at least 3 more yrs. If you look at the teams that have dominant lines they invest in them over and over and never trade from them. Sure, sometimes you lose someone as a CAP casualty, but outside that keep that strength and make sure it stays a strength. 

 

There has to be a way to get a QB without damaging the one true strength you have as a team. 

[Thinking Skins]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

As for Trubisky, i've watched him some, not a lot.  He had a decent run at the end of the season if you go through his stats.  His TD-INT ratio is actually above average as opposed to abysmal in Darnold's case so I put some stock in that.  Not that I want Trubisky but I'd take him over Darnold. 

I'm just looking at some stats and it seems like Mitch has one of the same problems that frustrates me with Baker - bad throws. PFR has him with 18% of his throws being bad. Garner Minshew has a very high number here, as well as Tua, Stafford, and a number of others. But when I'm seeing the high percentage of bad throws and a low number of yards, or even a low yard per attempt its something I can see that frustrates people. Especially with having a top tier WR in Robinson who probably bailed out Mitch a lot and it could be something where he's not helping his WRs a lot. 

 

That said, he was able to make the playoffs twice. 

[UK Skins]

I agree Goskins. Neither End should be even considered. Maybe whichever DT you feel will be hardest to resign (although I love Payne myself).

 

On the Trubisky front, he's dreadful. Watched a bit of Chicago over the last couple of years and he just looks lost. I'm not knowledgeable on the mechanics like some of you but he isn't someone I would want anywhere near our team.

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

We’re going to wind up with Darnold because of you. I can feel it.

And probably draft Shane Buschimi or whoever you keep pushing. Shawn Bureline? Something like that.

[50yrSKINSfan]

3 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

This is not just directed just at you as others have made similar suggestions but I keep seeing people mention Sweat or our other DL in trades. For me we finally have a team strength. I do not want to trade that away. Maybe Payne, or Allen are available if we don't think we can sign them. Or maybe Ioan who has troubles staying healthy (I love his play but he can't stay on the field) or Settle who despite some peoples opinion would likely start on more Dlines. But Sweat? Dude just had an amazing break out year. I even saw people mention Young as trade bait. Since he and Young 1st rd picks we have them for at least 3 more yrs. If you look at the teams that have dominant lines they invest in them over and over and never trade from them. Sure, sometimes you lose someone as a CAP casualty, but outside that keep that strength and make sure it stays a strength. 

 

There has to be a way to get a QB without damaging the one true strength you have as a team. 

You have to give quality in order to get quality. Rebuilding teams want good young guys that are not making a lot of money. To me Payne is worth more in trade because he has one more year than Allen on his rook deal. Yes you may damage a part of your team for a while but you will be  fixing the starting QB problem we have had for ever for the next 10 years if you get Watson. To me it's a no brainer. Why should the Raiders have the upper hand in the Watson saga? We have players and draft choices to trade same as them. By the way, what will Mariota cost us?

[carex]

1 minute ago, 50yrSKINSfan said:

You have to give quality in order to get quality. Rebuilding teams want good young guys that are not making a lot of money. To me Payne is worth more in trade because he has one more year than Allen on his rook deal. Yes you may damage a part of your team for a while but you will be  fixing the starting QB problem we have had for ever for the next 10 years if you get Watson. To me it's a no brainer. Why should the Raiders have the upper hand in the Watson saga? We have players and draft choices to trade same as them. By the way, what will Mariota cost us?

 

you're not only giving quality in this trade, you're giving the ability to get replacement quality at the same time.

[goskins10]

2 minutes ago, 50yrSKINSfan said:

You have to give quality in order to get quality. Rebuilding teams want good young guys that are not making a lot of money. To me Payne is worth more in trade because he has one more year than Allen on his rook deal. Yes you may damage a part of your team for a while but you will be  fixing the starting QB problem we have had for ever for the next 10 years if you get Watson. To me it's a no brainer. Why should the Raiders have the upper hand in the Watson saga? We have players and draft choices to trade same as them. By the way, what will Mariota cost us?

 

I believe I said maybe Payne or Allen, or even Ioan or Settle, especially if you don't think you can resign one of them. I was specifically talking about Sweat and Young being mentioned and they should be off limits. So not sure what your point is. It's pretty much exactly what I said unless you want to include Sweat or Young in the conversation, then we disagree. 

[ggarriso]

There is no options out there that are better than running Allen / Heinikie and seeing if you can sneak up for Zach Wilson in the draft. Lets review:

 

--Derek Carr for 2 firsts:  So a JAG that cripples the team in the draft for years, not sure if serious.  Absolutely not.  Would do a 3rd on him at best.

--Darnold:  Come on, is the idea to get better or worse?

--Watson for your entire draft for the next 3 seasons:  Price is too high and the idea that he is upset he didnt get to hand pick the GM screams entitlement and attitude issues.  PASS.

 

All three of the above are total non starters which leaves us with:

--Fitzmagic:  I love this dude, but hes the definition of journeyman, how many wins does he buy you over Allen/Heinkie? 

--Mariota: Pretty sure he has been on the verge of being out of the league a few times, again dont think he buys us much over what we have in house

--Minshew:  Would prob buy the jersey, but AGAIN im not sure I see realized value over what we have

 

So, HOLD with those DIAMOND HANDS or put together a mini package to get into Wilson on a rookie deal 

 

[HigSkin]

😂